Purpose As a by-product of the production process, emissions can follow output fluctuations. Hence, disregarding the relationship between economic fluctuations and emissions could result in undesirable environmental outcomes. This study aims to investigate the environmental and economic effects of abatement subsidies on overall emissions during business cycles in Australia. Design/methodology/approach A real business cycle (RBC) model is devised and parameterised in this paper. RBC models have been recently introduced to environmental policy analysis, and this study contributes to the literature by investigating the effects of a potential subsidy policy in an RBC framework. The model is also calibrated and provides solutions for the Australian economy. Findings The authors find that under a steady-state situation, supporting abatement can result in reducing emissions by 6.45% while it imposes welfare costs to the economy (by 0.61%). Simulation results show that an optimal abatement policy should be pro-cyclical, with the abatement subsidy increasing during expansions and decreasing during recessions. As well, in a subsidy policy setting, emissions would react pro-cyclically, i.e. emissions increase (decrease) when the gross domestic product increases (decreases). The abatement reaction by firms, however, is different, because when a positive productivity shock occurs, firms reduce abatement and allocate resources to production. Nonetheless, as time passes, the increased subsidy provides a strong enough incentive to allocate resources to abatement and, subsequently, abatement increases. Originality/value This paper investigates how an emission reduction subsidy should be adapted to macroeconomic fluctuations so that it can limit variations in emissions.

This study explores the link between environmental policy stringency and spending and the growth of environmental GDP and productivity. Using the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, we examine the short- and long-term effectiveness of environmental policy stringency and environmental spending on pollution-adjusted GDP and productivity growth for a sample of OECD nations. Although these policies and their outcomes differ considerably from country to country, our findings reveal that governments' expenditure on environmental protection emerges as a significantly stimulatory factor of national output in the short-term. Our long-run results show that both tighter environmental policies and environmental expenditure can slow down 'green' GDP and productivity growth over time with policy stringencies having a weaker impact. Overall, our findings do not support the Porter Hypothesis, but rather confirm the widely held view that these policies may hinder economic activity and growth.

In this paper, a modified composite index is developed to measure digital inclusion for a group of cities and regions. The developed model, in contrast to the existing benefit-of-the-doubt (BoD) composite index literature, considers the subindexes as non-compensatory. This new way of modeling results in three important properties: (i) all subindexes are taken into account when assessing the digital inclusion of regions and are not removed (substituted) from the composite index, (ii) in addition to an overall composite index (aggregation of the subindexes), partial indexes (aggregated scores for each subindex) are also provided so that weak performances can be detected more effectively than when only the overall index is measured, and (iii) compared with current BoD models, the developed model has improved discriminatory power. To demonstrate the developed model, we use the Australian digital inclusion index as a real-world example.

It is anticipated that e-commerce will contribute to achieving the 17th Sustainable Development Goal, which seeks to improve implementation mechanisms and revitalize global partnerships for sustainable development. However, MSMEs still face a digital gap compared to large enterprises, which affects their e-commerce sustainability. The study’s objective is to examine the factors and barriers affecting the e-commerce sustainability of Thai micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) based on a survey of retail and food and beverage (F&B) service MSMEs in metropolitan Bangkok. Estimations confirm the significance of the TOE framework for Thai MSMEs. Internal e-commerce tools (i.e., smartphones and websites) and external e-commerce platforms (i.e., social media, e-marketplaces, and food delivery platforms) can enhance e-commerce sustainability. However, the age of firms and owners (CEOs) affects e-commerce sustainability negatively. Exports, B2B e-commerce, and e-commerce experience can promote the e-commerce sustainability of Thai MSMEs. However, they perceive that many consumers are still not literate in using e-commerce. In addition, Thailand still has insufficient security to prevent hacking and malware. Therefore, Thai entrepreneurs’ e-commerce literacy is insufficient to enhance their e-commerce sustainability. On the other hand, sustainable e-commerce can increase customer satisfaction, loyalty, and trust through customer support, leading to more long-term online shopping. Hence, this study focuses on e-commerce sustainability-based economic dimensions, as measured by the percentage of e-commerce sales to total sales (e-commerce utilization/intensity).

This is the first study to apply the Kalman filter analysis based on state space modelling to test for the existence of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition and simulate the risk premium between the pegged currencies of Nepal and India. We find significant evidence that the UIP condition does not hold in Nepal. Simultaneously, a negative risk premium of about 12 per cent exists on average based on our model calibration using the monthly and the annual time-series data. The Kalman filter simulations further confirm our modelling assumptions that the ordinary least squares-based risk premium estimation is substantially biased in both sign and magnitude. The presence of a negative risk premium provides three key policy implications: a preference to hold foreign assets by residents, the expectation of a future currency devaluation, and obstacles to attracting foreign deposits.

Purpose The objectives of this study are to investigate the role of wages, skills development and R&D on the productivity of Thai manufacturing firms, using data from the 2017 Industrial Census of Thailand. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses two-stage least squares (2SLS) to examine the role of wages, skills development and R&D, as well as other vital factors, impacting productivity as measured by labour productivity and total factor productivity. Findings Thai manufacturing firms' technology in aggregate exhibits decreasing returns to scale. Increasing wages and skills development promote the labour productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) of Thai manufacturers. R&D is also shown to be vital in promoting the labour productivity and TFP of large firms, but not small firms. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and government support can significantly increase large and medium-sized firms' labour productivity and TFP. Financially constrained firms tend to perform more productively. However, older firms, larger firms, labour supply shortages and political instability adversely affect labour productivity and TFP. Practical implications Upskilling and improving HRD policies could move Thailand towards a knowledge-based and high-income country in the future. Intellectual property protection should be strengthened to boost the country's R&D. The government should consider lifting restrictions on FDI to encourage international openness. The Thai Board of Investment’s promotion should target Thai manufacturing firms and FDI. Originality/value This study is the first to examine in detail the role of wages, skills development and R&D on the productivity of Thai firms based on the 2017 Thailand Industrial Census.

The Chinese government adopted the 'Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation' (MEI) strategy in 2015 to increase the number of entrepreneurs, the number of private small-medium enterprises (SMEs) and firm innovation. Using China's firm-level data, we find that different entrepreneurial factors such as startup motivation, personal characteristics (age, gender), human capital (education, experience) and guanxi (political and business connections) impact the technical efficiency scores of SMEs in Eastern and non-Eastern regions differently. Our results also show that regional economic development and entrepreneurial quality disparities in China's economy warrant entrepreneurial policies tailored to address these differences if they are to be effective in improving the technical efficiency performance of firms. Based on our findings, one may argue that the MEI strategy will not be adequate by simply focusing upon increasing the number of entrepreneurs without considering regional differences in development and entrepreneur characteristics.

Purpose This study investigates the impact of demographic structural changes on economic growth using data for Asian economies covering the period 1960–2020. Other factors affecting economic growth, such as human capital, are also considered. Design/methodology/approach A fixed-effects model and a fixed-effects model with endogenous covariates are used to examine a dynamic demographic model covering different age cohorts (i.e. youth-age, working-age and old-age populations) and other factors impacting economic growth. Findings The working-age population share, the labour force relative to the working-age population and growth of the actively employed population have significant and positive impacts on economic growth. Population growth and the youth-age population share exert a significant and negative impact on economic growth. A second and silver demographic dividend is found arising from a significant and positive association between the old-age population and economic growth. Human capital has an inverted U-shaped association with economic growth. Environmental degradation is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. No evidence is found for the importance of migration. Practical implications The positive association between the old-age population and economic growth indicates the policy significance of retirement-income systems with high coverage to enhance economic growth in Asia. Lifelong learning and preventative health measures can also be supportive policies to strengthen the third (silver) demographic dividend via the extension of retirement for productive and healthy elders. Originality/value This study is the first to examine the impacts of demographic structure, human capital, migration and environmental degradation on economic growth in Asia, using the most up-to-date longitudinal data from 1960 to 2020. Unlike previous empirical studies, this study discovers empirically based evidence to support Asia's second and silver demographic dividends.

This study makes use of rich firm-level and linked firm-employee datasets that span the 2009-2015 period in Vietnam to examine how SMEs' credit constraints affect their strategic employment decisions and employees' labour outcomes. Our results show that constrained SMEs enlarge total employment by employing relatively more temporary workers and paying their employees relatively lower wages than unconstrained borrowing firms. Meanwhile, discouraged firms, mostly informal businesses, do not behave differently from unconstrained counterparts. In order to maintain a stable employment portfolio, discouraged firms are relatively more willing to reward their employees with an overtime payment.

Should monetary policy independence be maintained when the exchange rate is fixed under closed capital account conditions in a small open economy? We apply the Kalman filter at State Space model to test the Nepalese economy’s policy trilemma condition involving restricting capital flow, maintaining policy independence and fixing the exchange rate over the period 1989-2019. Accounting for two-thirds of Nepal’s total trade, Nepal is heavily trade-dependent to India in South Asia, which underwent economic liberalisation during the early 1990s. We modify the traditional Taylor-rule-based monetary policy reaction function to more closely represent Nepal’s economic characteristics by mixing backward-looking and forward-looking strategies and incorporating a fixed exchange rate in the monetary policy reaction function. The simulation results provide strong evidence of policy trilemma failure and inevitable policy trade-offs. In the monetary policy reaction function of both domestic and foreign conditions, the parameter value of domestic condition needs to be close to zero, to get the simulated interest rate close to observed. The loss of monetary policy independence raises a range of policy issues for the Nepalese economy: the rationale for fixing the exchange rate, and the efficacy of capital account closure which might deteriorate the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Ghasemi, Ignatius, and Rezaee (2019) (Improving discriminating power in data envelopment models based on deviation variables framework. European Journal of Operational Research 278, 442- 447) propose a procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis (DEA) based on the deviation variables framework. They claim that their procedure improves the discriminating power of DEA and can be an alternative to the super-efficiency model that is well-known to have the infeasibility problem and the cross-efficiency approach which suffers from the presence of multiple optimal solutions. However, we demonstrate, in this short note, that their procedure is developed based upon inappropriate use of deviation variables which leads to the development of a ranking approach that does not meet their expectations and as a result, an unreasonable ranking of decision making units (DMUs). We also show that the use of deviation variables, if interpreted and used correctly, can lead to developing a cross-inefficiency matrix and approach. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Following Sadorsky (Energy Economics, 2011, 33, 739), we examine the nexus between energy and trade in South Asia in a panel framework using annual data from 1990 to 2015. Given the cross-sectional dependency issue, we use robust second-generation panel econometric methods for the analysis. We find that variables are stationary at the first difference and cointegrated in the long run. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test shows a long-run unidirectional causality from trade openness to energy consumption but not vice versa. Moreover, the panel symmetric and asymmetric estimation techniques reveal that energy consumption rises by 0.47 per cent on average and 0.83 per cent, with a 1 per cent rise in trade openness in the long run. However, a negative shock of similar magnitude reduces energy consumption by 0.37 per cent. We further fortify the panel results in the country-level data with robust methods. We recommend energy efficiency and conservation policies and renewable energy technology augmentation policies through bilateral or multilateral trade strategies for sustainable development in the selected South Asian countries.

India is one of the world's largest emerging economies and, therefore, has a critical role to play in ensuring global sustainability, while the Indian economy is also prioritizing energy security. The paper explores the dynamic linkages between energy security captured through national-level energy use, foreign direct investment (FDI), economic output, carbon emissions, and trade openness in India spanning the period from 1978 to 2016 in a multivariate framework based on the theoretical premise of an Environmental Kuznets Curve. Time series econometric modelling based on the ARDL model and VECM Granger causality tests are employed for this purpose. The results confirm the presence of a co-integrating relationship and finds a strong energy-output-CO2-FDI long-run nexus. A 1% increase in FDI results in a 0.013% reduction in energy use. Energy use is found to be Granger caused by output, carbon emissions, FDI and trade openness in the long-run. The adoption of energy-efficient techniques through FDI is essential for reducing carbon emissions in India based on our findings. The Indian government should also galvanize FDI inflow in the renewable energy sectors by assuring incentives to investors to concurrently achieve favorable macroeconomic outcomes and ensure sustainable economic development. These are globally important policy lessons for other developing and emerging economies.

Abstract During the 1960s and early 1970s the Lebanese economy was characterized by low inflation, high growth, sizeable balance of payments surpluses and small public sector deficits, which made it a highly attractive business centre. During this period the country was described as the Switzerland or Paris of the East. This macroeconomic stability did not last long, however, as the economy subsequently underwent fundamental structural changes during most years after the mid 1970s. The aim of this paper is to identify the timing of major structural breaks in the Lebanese economy by applying the Zivot and Andrews (ZA) (1992) procedure, using annual time series data spanning the years from 1970 through 2003. The empirical results from the ZA model, which endogenously identifies the most significant structural breaks in each of the macroeconomic variables, clearly show that the null hypothesis of at least one unit root could be rejected for some of the variables under investigation. In other words, some of the variables, which contain a unit root based on the conventional unit root test, become stationary after taking into account the existence of potential structural breaks in the series. The results are statistically significant and the endogenous structural breaks identified using this methodology also coincides with periods of major economic shocks to the Lebanese economy. More specifically, most of the structural changes are associated with: the years of the Civil War in Lebanon, which started in 1975; the post 1982 era which started with the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982; the deep recession in 1983-84; and the adverse effects of the 1988-89 currency depreciation on inflation and the real economy. Abstract During the 1960s and early 1970s the Lebanese economy was characterized by low inflation, high growth, sizeable balance of payments surpluses and small public sector deficits, which made it a highly attractive business centre. During this period the country was described as the Switzerland or Paris of the East. This macroeconomic stability did not last long, however, as the economy subsequently underwent fundamental structural changes during most years after the mid 1970s. The aim of this paper is to identify the timing of major structural breaks in the Lebanese economy by applying the Zivot and Andrews (ZA) (1992) procedure, using annual time series data spanning the years from 1970 through 2003. The empirical results from the ZA model, which endogenously identifies the most significant structural breaks in each of the macroeconomic variables, clearly show that the null hypothesis of at least one unit root could be rejected for some of the variables under investigation. In other words, some of the variables, which contain a unit root based on the conventional unit root test, become stationary after taking into account the existence of potential structural breaks in the series. The results are statistically significant and the endogenous structural breaks identified using this methodology also coincides with periods of major economic shocks to the Lebanese economy. More specifically, most of the structural changes are associated with: the years of the Civil War in Lebanon, which started in 1975; the post 1982 era which started with the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982; the deep recession in 1983-84; and the adverse effects of the 1988-89 currency depreciation on inflation and the real economy.

The integration of input–output and econometric models at regional level has gained popularity for its superior performance in forecasting employment and examining the impacts of policies. There are a number of approaches to integrate the two models. This paper examines the integration of input–output with econometric modelling using two merging methodologies, namely coupling and holistic embedding. Each methodology is analysed with respect to the accuracy of its results of total and sectoral employment forecasting. Both methodologies are applied to a regional economy in Australia. The methodology which shows superior forecasting accuracy is applied to examine the significance of sectors that generate the highest number of employments relative to other sectors.

As by-products, emissions follow economic fluctuations. Ignoring this fact in environmental policies can lead to unexpected emissions fluctuations and an increase in intervention costs. Using a real business cycle model, we compare two policies: a fixed tax policy where the price is constant over time and a variable tax regime where the tax rate is set at the beginning of each period. We find that while both programs result in lower emissions, a variable tax regime is preferable since first, it can ensure that the maximum welfare is always achieved, and second, it is more effective in stabilising emissions.