In an era marked by rapid global changes, the reinforcement and modernization of plant health surveillance systems have become imperative. Sixty-five scientists present here a research agenda for an enhanced and modernized plant health surveillance to anticipate and mitigate disease and pest emergence. Our approach integrates a wide range of scientific fields (from life, social, physical and engineering sciences) and identifies the key knowledge gaps, focusing on anticipation, risk assessment, early detection, and multi-actor collaboration. The research directions we propose are organized around four complementary thematic axes. The first axis is the anticipation of pest emergence, encompassing innovative forecasting, adaptive potential, and the effects of climatic and cropping system changes. The second axis addresses the use of versatile broad-spectrum surveillance tools, including molecular or imaging diagnostics supported by artificial intelligence, and monitoring generic matrices such as air and water. The third axis focuses on surveillance of known pests from new perspectives, i.e., using novel approaches to detect known species but also anticipating and detecting, within a species, the populations or genotypes that pose a higher risk. The fourth axis advocates the management of plant health as a commons through the establishment of multi-actor and cooperative surveillance systems for long-term data-driven alert systems and information dissemination. We stress the importance of integrating data and information from multiple sources through open science databases and metadata, alongside developing methods for interpolating and extrapolating incomplete data. Finally, we advocate an Integrated Health Surveillance approach in the One Health context, favoring tailored and versatile solutions to plant health problems and recognizing the interconnected risks to the health of plants, humans, animals and the environment, including food insecurity, pesticide residues, environmental pollution and alterations of ecosystem services.

Biological invasions exert multiple pervasive effects on ecosystems, potentially disrupting species interactions and global ecological processes. Our ability to successfully predict and manage the ecosystem-level impacts of biological invasions is strongly dependent on our capacity to empirically characterize complex biological interactions and their spatiotemporal dynamics. In this chapter, we argue that the comprehensive integration of multiple complementary tools within the explicit context of ecological networks is essential for providing mechanistic insight into invasion processes and their impact across organizational levels. We provide an overview of traditional (stable isotopes, populations genetics) and emerging (metabarcoding, citizen science) techniques and methods, and their practical implementation in the context of biological invasions. We also present several currently available models and machine-learning approaches that could be used for predicting novel or undocumented interactions, thus allowing a more robust and cost-effective forecast of network and ecosystem stability. Finally, we discuss the importance of methodological advancements on the emergence of scientific and societal challenges for investigating local and global species histories with several skill sets.

Predicting the ecological causes and consequences of global climate change requires a variety of approaches, including the use of experiments, models, and surveys. Among experiments, mesocosms have become increasingly popular because they provide an important bridge between smaller, more tightly controlled, microcosm experiments (which can suffer from limited realism) and the greater biological complexity of natural systems (in which mechanistic relationships often cannot be identified). A new evaluation of the contribution of the mesocosm approach, its potential for future research, as well as its limitations, is timely. As part of this review, we constructed a new database of over 250 post-1990 studies that have explored different components of climate change across a range of organisational levels, scales, and habitats. Issues related to realism, reproducibility and control are assessed in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial systems. Some general patterns emerged, particularly at the ecosystem level, such as consistent and predictable effects on whole-system respiration rates. There are, however, also many seemingly idiosyncratic, contingent responses, especially at the community level, both within and among habitat types. These similarities and differences in both the drivers and responses highlight the need for caution before making generalisations. Finally, we assess future directions and prospects for new methodological advances and the need for greater international coordination and interdisciplinarity.

Weeds sit at the crux of issues of arable biodiversity and productivity. We test whether the effects of a simple local landscape richness score are apparent on in-field data for the predominant weeds, in the seedbank and as standing weeds, across the Great Britain (GB) scale. We test two hypotheses: (H1) that in-field weed species richness is positively related to local landscape richness around arable fields; and (H2) that in-field weed abundance is positively related to local landscape richness. We maintain H1, but find little evidence of a consistent effect of local landscape on the species richness of in-field weeds. Convincing evidence for local landscape richness affecting weed abundance lead us to accept H2 as a working hypothesis for in-field weed abundance. However, we have no mechanism to explain why in-field weed abundance should be linked to off-field landscape features, as expectations for farmer management intensity and local bee abundance affecting weed abundance were not significant.The effects of landscape on weed abundance were consistent across the GB scale dataset despite systematic sources of error due to cropping and regional differences. These results suggest that local landscape might be managed to achieve goals of changing in-field weed abundance at policy-relevant scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bohan DA, Powers SJ, Champion G, Haughton AJ, Hawes C, Squire G, Cussans J & Mertens SK (2011). Modelling rotations: can crop sequences explain arable weed seedbank abundance? Weed Research51, 422–432.SummaryWe investigated the effects of crop sequences on monocotyledon, dicotyledon and total weed seedbank abundance. Using seedbank data sampled from the conventionally cropped part of the GB farm‐scale evaluations of genetically modified, herbicide‐tolerant (GMHT) crops, we asked whether it is possible to identify crop sequence effects, to identify their duration and to simplify crop sequences into crop management classes with similar effects on weed seedbanks. This work showed that it is possible to detect historical effects of past crops, sown in sequence, on weed seedbanks for up to 3 years and that crop sequences may be simplified to crop management classes describing the season of sowing, crop type and weed target for herbicide application. Model estimates for the seedbanks were validated against an independent, follow‐up seedbank data set. The analysis provided abundance estimates that ranged over 3 and 1.7 orders of magnitude for the monocotyledon and dicotyledon weed seedbanks for different crop sequences. This work yields a methodology for estimating seedbank abundance in current crop sequences, potentially allowing sequences to be identified that better reconcile the competing needs for weed control to maintain crop productivity and the demand for increased farmland biodiversity.

The molecular detection of predation is a fast growing field, allowing highly specific and sensitive detection of prey DNA within the gut contents or faeces of a predator. Like all molecular methods, this technique is prone to potential sources of error that can result in both false positive and false negative results. Here, we test the hypothesis that the use of suction samplers to collect predators from the field for later molecular analysis of predation will lead to high numbers of false positive results. We show that, contrary to previous published work, the use of suction samplers resulted in previously starved predators testing positive for aphid and collembolan DNA, either as a results of ectopic contamination or active predation in the collecting cup/bag. The contradictory evidence for false positive results, across different sampling protocols, sampling devices and different predator-prey systems, highlights the need for experimentation prior to mass field collections of predators to find techniques that minimise the risk of false positives.

Oviposition behaviour is important when modelling the population dynamics of many invertebrates. The numbers of eggs laid are frequently used to describe fecundity, but this measure may differ significantly from realised fecundity. Oviposition has been shown to be important when describing the dynamics of slug populations, which are important agricultural pests. The numbers of eggs laid by Deroceras reticulatum and their viability were measured across a range of 16 temperature (4, 10, 15 and 23 degrees C) by moisture (33%, 42%, 53% and 58% by dry soil weight) experimental combinations. A fitted quadratic response surface model was used to estimate how D. reticulatum adjusted its egg laying to the surrounding temperature and moisture conditions, with most eggs being laid at a combination of 53% soil moisture and 18 degrees C. The number and proportion of viable eggs also covaried with temperature and moisture, suggesting that D. reticulatum may alter their investment in reproduction to maximise their fitness. We have shown that the number of viable eggs differs from the total number of eggs laid by D. reticulatum. Changes in egg viability with temperature and moisture may also be seen in other species and should be considered when modelling populations of egg-laying invertebrates.

A functional group approach was is developed for plant and invertebrate assemblages front UK arable fields to assess the variation in functional composition of these highly disturbed, managed systems. Data were taken From the Farm-Scale Evaluations (FSE) of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops where the impact of management of the GMHT crop has been assessed for winter and spring sown oilseed rape, beet and maize. Twenty plant bind 36 invertebrate functional groups Were defined according to trophic behaviour and traits that affect resource capture, quality and availability. The functional composition of the plant community was significantly affected by season of sowing, the type of crop sown and, to a lesser extent, herbicide management. The invertebrate community composition was also affected by crop type and sowing season, but not by management. Resource and consumer groups Were positively related, and data provide strong evidence for top-down control of herbivore populations. Two main interaction groups were identified within he arable food web: one between omnivores generalist predators and detritivores, which are positively associated with monocots, and one between omnivores, parasitoids, sap feeders and leaf chewers, which have a stronger association with dicots. Although management has an impact on within-field arable biodiversity, crop type and sowing season have an overriding effect on the functional composition of plant and invertebrate assemblages in arable systems. (C) 2007 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

An environmental risk assessment of a new agricultural management practice depends upon the provision of empirical evidence of cause and effect. This will invariably be derived from comparative experiments testing the null hypothesis that a change in management will have no effect on an assessment endpoint (the metric on which policy decisions will be based). Crucial to the design of these experiments is the answer to the question of ‘what to measure?’. The selection of these measurement endpoints and the design of sampling protocols will be determined by the properties of the environmental stressors associated with the change in management practice and the taxa that are exposed to their effects, as well as logistic and financial considerations. The rationale for deciding what to measure in the context of these various criteria is reviewed. For a measurement endpoint to be a valid indicator of the risk of a negative impact of management on the assessment endpoint, a predictable and quantifiable link must be made between the two. It should also be recorded at the appropriate taxonomic resolution to safely assume that all the constituent parts will both respond in a similar way to the management stressor and have a similar effect on the assessment endpoint. Protocols must be designed with the spatial and temporal properties of the management stressor and the measurement endpoint in mind and a consideration of the statistical power of the experiment to detect changes. Where there is a lag in the response time of a measurement endpoint to a stressor due to inertia in the system, an accurate measurement of the effect of the novel management may require experiments running over several years. Throughout, care must be taken that the statistical and biological validity of a sampling regime is not compromised in the face of logistic and financial pressures. The Farm Scale Evaluations of the management of Genetically Modified Herbicide Tolerant crops are presented as a case study to illustrate the concepts discussed.

Over the past 40 years there have been marked shifts in arable farmland management that are widely believed to have had a considerable impact on flowering plants and invertebrates and the small mammals and birds that rely upon them. It is not yet possible to predict the dynamics of plants and invertebrates either with past or future changes in farmland management. This study investigates whether a basic invertebrate classification, formed of broad trophic groups, can be used to describe interactions between invertebrates and their resource plants and evaluate management impacts for genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) and conventional herbicide management in both spring- and winter-sown oilseed rape. It is argued that the analyses validate trophic-based approaches for describing the dynamics of invertebrates in farmland and that linear models might be used to describe the changes in invertebrate trophic group abundance in farmland when driven by primary producer abundance or biomass and interactions between invertebrates themselves. The analyses indicate that invertebrate dynamics under GMHT management are not unique, but similar to conventional management occurring over different resource ranges, and that dynamics differed considerably between spring- and wintersown oilseed rape. Thus, herbicide management was of much lower impact on trophic relationships than sowing date. Results indicate that invertebrate dynamics in oilseed rape are regulated by a combination of top-down and bottom-up trophic processes.

The use of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops influences the abundance of weeds and some invertebrate groups because the associated herbicide regime contrasts with that of conventional systems. However, it is not clear to what extent these effects might be cumulative; should GMHT crops be grown continuously. In northern Europe, in the near future, this situation is most likely to apply to maize crops. Here, we consider the effects of continuous GMHT maize cropping on plant and invertebrate taxa using a split-field experiment. Half of each field was managed using GMHT and the other half with a conventional variety, with the treatments retained for two seasons. The treatment effects were broadly consistent with those found in the larger sample of non-continuous maize sites within the Farm Scale Evaluations. There was little evidence of effects being significantly more pronounced in the second year; any cumulative differences in above-ground biodiversity between GMHT and conventional cropping were too variable to be readily detected.

We present a new model of ballooning behaviour in arthropods in which draglines are regarded as being extendible and completely flexible. Our numerical simulations reveal that silk draglines within turbulent flows can become twisted and stretched into highly contorted shapes. Ballooners are therefore predicted to have little control over their aerodynamic drag and their dispersal within the atmospheric boundary layer. Dragline length is crucial only at lift-off. This prediction runs counter to that of Humphrey who suggested that the length of rigid draglines can be used to control dispersal. In contrast with Humphrey's model, the new model accounts naturally for the large distances travelled by some ballooners.

The effects of the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops on the abundances of aerial and epigeal arthropods were assessed in 66 beet, 68 maize and 67 spring oilseed rape sites as part of the Farm Scale Evaluations of GMHT crops. Most higher taxa were insensitive to differences between GMHT and conventional weed management, but significant effects were found on the abundance of at least one group within each taxon studied. Numbers of butterflies in beet and spring oilseed rape and of Heteroptera and bees in beet were smaller under the relevant GMHT crop management, whereas the abundance of Collembola was consistently greater in all GMHT crops. Generally, these effects were specific to each crop type, reflected the phenology and ecology of the arthropod taxa, were indirect and related to herbicide management. These results apply generally to agriculture across Britain, and could be used in mathematical models to predict the possible long-term effects of the widespread adoption of GMHT technology. The results for bees and butterflies relate to foraging preferences and might or might not translate into effects on population densities, depending on whether adoption leads to forage reductions over large areas. These species, and the detritivore Collembola, may be useful indicator species for future studies of GMHT management.

The frequency distribution of first generation, Steinernema feltiae Filipjev parasitic stages was over-dispersed with the majority of hosts containing few or no parasitic stages, whilst a few hosts contained a great many. Because of high extraction efficiency, the frequency distributions of the parasitic stages and the infective stages in the soil were assumed to be directly related. To explain the frequency distribution of the parasites it was therefore necessary to account for the frequency distribution of the S. feltiae infective stages in the soil. The infective stages were spatially aggregated into 30 cm diameter patches at the site of host death. These patches were randomly distributed approximately 1 m apart. At the 1 m scale, the pooled counts of infective stages were randomly distributed. Thus, in contrast to the frequency distributions, the spatial structuring of S. feltiae changed with the spatial scale of the interaction. This dynamic spatial structuring means that the majority of samples taken would contain few or no infective stages, whilst a few soil samples would contain a great many. Thus, the spatial structuring of the infective stages generates the over-dispersed frequency distribution of the S. feltiae in the soil. Hosts, encountering infective stages from this spatial distribution will, therefore, show an over-dispersed frequency distribution of S. feltiae parasitic stages.

Infection experiments were conducted to assess the proportion of Steinernema feltiae (Site 76 strain) Filipjev infective juveniles which penetrated into the test host Galleria mellonella L. over an 8-week period. Using a combined ANOVA and infection model approach, the analyses showed that the proportion of infective juveniles which penetrated into the test hosts changed significantly over time. This change was found to be consistent with a fluctuation in the size of a non-infectious population structure within the infective juvenile pool. These fluctuations in the magnitude of the infectious structure would dynamically alter the number of juveniles available for infection in hosts and so impose the observed change in the proportion of juveniles penetrating into hosts, over the 8-week time-course. The empirical and ecological implications of such a dynamically limited pattern of infection and possible future research into the mechanisms responsible for the non-infectious population structure are discussed.

Infection experiments were conducted to assess the proportion of Steinernema feltiae (Site 76 strain) Filipjev infective juveniles which penetrated into the test host Galleria mellonella L. over an 8-week period. Using a combined ANOVA and infection model approach, the analyses showed that the proportion of infective juveniles which penetrated into the test hosts changed significantly over time. This change was found to be consistent with a fluctuation in the size of a noninfectious population structure within the infective juvenile pool. These fluctuations in the magnitude of the infectious structure would dynamically alter the number of juveniles available for infection in hosts and so impose the observed change in the proportion of juveniles penetrating into hosts, over the 8-week time-course. The empirical and ecological implications of such a dynamically limited pattern of infection and possible future research into the mechanisms responsible for the non-infectious population structure are discussed.

Summary Slugs are major pests of winter wheat and oilseed rape at establishment. Slug numbers are normally reduced by cultivation. Non-inversion methods of tillage generally have less effect in reducing slug populations than ploughing and subsequent cultivations to produce a seedbed for sowing field crops. However, sufficient slugs may still survive ploughing to cause severe damage to seeds and seedlings. Following ploughing, slugs move back to the soil upper layers over a period of four weeks or more after ploughing. Thus, slugs buried by ploughing might return to the soil surface after molluscicide pellets applied at drilling have ceased to be effective. Field experiment results are described which indicate that it may be possible to overcome such problems by seedbed consolidation and by altering the timing of slug pellet treatment. Chemical control using molluscicidal bait pellets must be carefully integrated with tillage practices for reliable control of slug damage. For example, cultivation should be avoided for at least three days after molluscicide application. Also, because tillage practices should make it difficult for slugs to find vulnerable seeds, slug pellets should not, in general, be drilled with the seeds where they could be unavailable to slugs, but broadcast on the soil surface where pellets are readily found by slugs. Slug traps baited with chicken layers mash, examined after one night, provide a rapid and safe method of assessing slug numbers and activity, giving a reliable basis for evaluating the risk of slug damage, during the period before cultivation prior to the sowing of winter arable crops.