This paper investigates the heterogeneity of inflation expectations among households, firms, and professionals across 14 economies. Using Bayesian model averaging and panel data regressions, we identify key determinants of inflation expectations, assess their stability over time, and evaluate their persistence. Our findings reveal that households and firms rely heavily on past expectations and year-on-year changes in economic variables, whereas professionals are more responsive to monetary policy indicators. The inflation news index emerges as a crucial determinant, especially during high-inflation periods, highlighting the role of media in expectation formation. We find that inflation expectations became more backward-looking during the inflationary period 2022. Additionally, while CPI inflation significantly influences firms and professionals, exchange rates and oil prices appear insignificant.

This paper reassesses the credibility of rational expectations in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models by examining their limitations in capturing real-world macroeconomic dynamics. Using the Smets and Wouters model as a baseline, we incorporate various survey-based measures of inflation expectations to evaluate their effects on model fit and forecasting accuracy. The framework is extended to include financial frictions, unemployment, time-varying inflation targets, and news shocks. Results show that incorporating observed inflation expectations improves model fit, reduces posterior uncertainty around shocks, and lowers reliance on ad hoc rigidities such as indexation and investment adjustment costs, particularly in case of U.S. data. However, these expectations do not consistently improve the model's ability to replicate key macroeconomic moments. The magnitude and direction of improvements vary across model variants and between the U.S. and the Euro area. Robustness checks suggest that observed expectations help mitigate the effects of structural breaks. Overall, the findings enhance model predictions and challenge the sufficiency of relying solely on rational expectations in DSGE models.

The transition to Industry 4.0 presumes the use of innovation potential which is also determined by the institutional environment, including the level of corruption and its perception. The post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe are characterized by a higher level of corruption and higher share of the shadow economy, which can fundamentally reduce their innovation potential and thus become the brake on the transition to Industry 4.0. The aim of this paper is thus to evaluate the effects of corruption in public administration on the size and structure of the shadow economy, and to determine whether the existence of corruption may affect the transition of a country and society to Industry 4.0. Based on an extended DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model and using the data for the Czech Republic, the paper finds that corruption in public administration has a much more destructive and long-term effect on the capital accumulation than on the size of the workforce. In that sense, corruption can become a significant obstacle to the transition, underlining that the task of public policies is not only to support digitization, robotization, and further development of technologies, but especially to ensure a transparent non-corrupt environment of public administration.

The reliability of output gap estimates is a crucial factor for the successful implementation of economic policy. We evaluate the robustness and stability of output gap estimates while comparing structural and non-structural techniques, using recursive estimates and alternative stability indicators. Our results provide evidence that some structural approaches outperform other available methods. Structural approaches exhibit a higher order of stability. Especially the methods based on the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition outperform the other structural and non-structural methods. The stability of structural approaches increases as new data becomes available. Moreover, output gap uncertainty diminishes during the positive business cycle phases, and structural approaches offer better overall stability performance and exhibit more stable concordance of these estimates. Our results are robust to alternative prior density settings and reveal similar output gap uncertainty patterns for the Visegrad countries, the euro area, and the United States.

While assessing the economic impacts of corruption, the corruption-related transmission channels which influence taxation as such have to be duly considered. Taking the example of the Czech Republic, this article aims to evaluate the impacts corruption has on the size of the shadow economy as well as on the individual sources of long-term economic growth, making use of a transmission channel through which corruption affects the tax burden components. Using the method of an extended DSGE model, it confirms the initial assumption that an increase in perceived corruption supports the shadow economy's growth, but at the same time, it demonstrates that corruption and especially its perception has a significantly different effect on two key areas-the capital accumulation and the labour force size. It further identifies another sector of the economy representing taxes which are prone to tax evasion while asserting that corruption has a much more destructive effect on this sector of the economy, offering generalized implications for other post-communist EU member states in a similar situation.

Despite environmental taxation’s presumed advantages for long-term sustainable development goals, the problematic institutional conditions associated with high levels of corruption could become a significant obstacle undermining these efforts. Taking the example of the Czech Republic as a benchmark, the aim of this article is to evaluate the impact of corruption and its implications on the size of the official and the shadow economy in the sector burdened with environmental excise tax while confronting it with the sector not burdened with such tax. In terms of methodology, an extended DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model has been used. In the case of the shadow economy, the two sectors, burdened and not burdened with environmental taxes, followed a similar trend. However, concerning the official economy, this research found out that if environmental taxation is not applied, then lower, non-systemic corruption has a positive effect on the size of production as the effect of increased workforce motivation clearly dominates, suppressing the effect of reduced capital accumulation. Conversely, in the sector burdened with environmental taxation, corruption has an almost unequivocally negative effect on the production economy. In this sense, corruption has the capacity to limit the implementation of sustainable development policies including the European Green Deal, especially if it is systemic in nature.

Empiricky ověřený software pro vcasne varovani před pravděpodobným upadkem ci financni tisni neziskove organizace. Software je založen na výsledcich ekonometrických modelů, konkretně tzv. logit modelů, ktere byly sestaveny a odhadnuty s využitim financnich a nefinancnich ukazatelů 777 veřejně prospěsných organizaci působicich v sektoru socialnich služeb za obdobi let 2014 až 2017. Dale potom 483 zakladnich organizacnich jednotek organizace Junak – ceský skaut, z. s., kdy dostupna data zahrnovala obdobi let 2008 až 2018. V připadě predikcnich modelů financni zranitelnosti (bankrotnich modelů) pro veřejně prospěsne organizace byla testovana paleta 49 ukazatelů financni zranitelnosti. Na zakladě podrobne analýzy vzajemne propojenosti vice než 250 dostupných statických i dynamických financnich a nefinancnich ukazatelů bylo ve výsledku otestovano celkem 53 těchto ukazatelů v ramci formulovaných ekonometrických modelů. Pro připad vzajemně prospěsných organizaci byla ve výsledku testovana paleta 30 zavislých proměnných a k nim odpovidajicich 51 proměnných nezavislých Ratingy financni zranitelnosti (klasifikace znamkou na skale A (nejlepsi) až F (nejhorsi)) jsou založeny na predikovaných pravděpodobnostech vychazejicich z odhadnutých modelů. Ratingy A a B jsou založeny na vysokých hodnotach tzv. true positive rate, tedy tak, aby s co největsi pravděpodobnosti organizace spadajici do teto kategorie byly v nasledujicim roce skutecně financně zdrave (pravděpodobnost predikovane financni zranitelnosti je tak velmi nizka). Software je realizovan jako moderni webova single-page aplikace založena na CSS frameworku Bootstrap. Algoritmy výpoctů ekonometrických modelů jsou provaděny na straně klienta a jsou implementovany v programovacim jazyce JavaScript. Webova aplikace umožňuje po vyhodnoceni financniho zdravi staženi exportu ve formatu PDF, obsahujiciho kompletni informace o vyhodnocenem financnim zdravi organizace vcetně vstupnich dat. Export výsledků již neni realizovan na straně klienta, nýbrž na straně serveru, přicemž je implementovan v programovacim jazyce PHP.

Inter-municipal cooperation is not solely about the cooperation of two or more municipalities. Professional networking or another kind of membership or cooperation could be also positive incentives for strengthening municipal cooperation. Czech Republic belongs to countries where there is not only one national professional association of municipalities with regional structures and this could offer the questions about their influence on inter-municipal cooperation. In this paper we use data from a full sample of Czech municipalities to reveal the role of variables including professional networking activity, regional structures and financial conditions on the existence or development of municipal cooperation. The results of regression analyses provide indistinct explanations. Membership in one national association increases the probability that the municipality will begin or sustain membership in a voluntary association of municipalities (VAM), while membership in another association tends to decrease the probability for engagement in VAM. Since the distribution of municipalities in the territory is not uniform, and individual municipalities have different socio-demographic and territorial characters, we decided to explore the basic characteristics of the municipality such as non-financial and financial indicators. Further, for small municipalities, we were not able to verify the hypothesis that they would be more likely to cooperate due to lack of resources or more adverse financial conditions.

The paper examines the effect of gender composition of executive body on financial performance and financial health of the firms. The data of more than thousand Czech travel agencies and tour operators for the period 2008–2015 was employed in the paper. To test the relationship between firm performance and gender diversity in leadership, the regression model was applied. After using alternative measurement for gender diversity of executive body and controlling for firm size, firm age, executive body size, leverage ratio and industry, the results have shown that the gender composition of executive body has no statistically significant effect on both firm performance and financial health of firms. The study deepens empirical knowledge about the relationship between gender diversity of executive body and corporate performance and financial health and brings new insights into the link between these phenomena in the Czech Republic.

In our paper, we analyse the long-term stability and impact of remittances and development aid on sustainable economic growth in developing countries. We use two data samples from countries that were recipients of both aid and remittances in the corresponding period. First, unbalanced data from the years 1970 to 2017; that is, how countries appear in the data. Second, balanced data, where we selected the largest possible set of countries for which data exists without gaps from the years 1970–2017. This dataset consists of 57 countries for the period from 1991 to 2017. Using linear regression models, we conclude that up until the end of the 1980s, the size of aid as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) was larger than the share of remittances. After that, the situation changed and the shares of both inflows were broadly similar. The inflow of remittances was more stable than the inflow of aid and development aid did not (on the contrary to remittances) contribute positively to sustainable economic growth if we consider the entire period between 1970 and 2017. Our results suggest that a statistically significant relationship between development aid and economic growth (per capita) may be observed only in the period from 1990 to 1999. Economic growth in developing countries is negatively influenced by the uncertainty related to the flows of official development assistance (ODA) and aid in all investigated decades. In the case of the remittance flows, the increased volatility tends to contribute negatively to sustainable economic growth only when the remittance flows represent a relatively higher share of GDP.

The influence of climate change and perceptions of it on people’s migration decisions has received significant prominence, especially for people living on low-lying islands. To contribute to this literature, this paper uses Maldives as a case study for exploring the research question: How does climate change influence or not influence people’s migration decisions in Maldives? Previous work tends to start from a disciplinary climate change perspective, while this study combines migration, mobility, and island studies perspectives, within which climate change sits. As well, rather than focusing on the area around the capital, Malé, as with many previous studies, the 113 interviews here were conducted in eight islands across three atolls. The method was qualitative, semi-structured, face-to-face interviews using purposive sampling of ordinary people. Contrary to a view of islanders preparing to flee their islands as “climate change refugees”, the interviewees provided nuanced and varied responses. They rarely identified the potential of future impacts due to climate change as influencing their migration-related decisions. When migration was considered, it was chiefly internal movement seeking a better standard of living via improved services, better living conditions, and more job opportunities. If migration related to potential climate change impacts might happen, then it was assumed to be in the future for decisions then. This lack of influence of climate change-related perceptions on Maldivians’ migration decisions fits well within island mobilities studies, from which climate change perspectives could adopt wider contexts.

The goal of this paper is to quantify the impact of alternative tax adjustments on government tax revenues and the size of the shadow economy in Slovakia. Our approach uses a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model consisting of both formal and informal sectors of the economy. Using the quarterly data for the Slovak economy from 2000 to 2017 we estimate a linearised form of the DSGE model. Based on our parameter estimates, we perform a set of simulations using the non-linear form of the underlying DSGE model to evaluate the effects of changes in the corporate tax rate, personal income tax rate, social security tax rate, and in the probability of tax control. These effects are evaluated with regards to the changes in steady-state values of the output in the official economy, total tax revenues, and the size of the shadow economy. The corresponding Laffer curves show strong responses in the size of the underground economy when the corporate tax rates or personal income tax rates are growing. On the other hand, the increase of the social security tax rates causes only small growth in the share of the shadow economy without negative effects on government tax revenues.

This article builds on long-term research by authors in the field of tax burden and its impacts, incorporating a newly designed indicator of legal uncertainty in the tax area which is conceived on the basis of a detailed description of the legislation. This indicator, together with other important factors, is incorporated into the tax system model and its links and influence on the behaviour of economic actors are examined.The aim of the article is to evaluate the impact of legal uncertainty in taxation on the labour supply in the Czech Republic. From a methodological point of view, DSGE modelling and quarterly data for the period 2002-2016 are used.The main conclusion of the study is the confirmation of the negative impact of uncertainty on all examined taxes. At the same time, in all the cases, a shift from the official to the shadow economy occurs.

Abstract Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with the housing sector, this paper evaluates the impact of housing collateral on the business cycle in the Czech economy. We devote special attention to the setting of the loan to value (LTV) ratio, which we believe plays an important role as a regulator of the monetary transmission mechanism. The impacts of LTV ratio are quantified by simulating the responses of alternative LTV level setting on key macroeconomic variables. Our simulations are based on an estimated DSGE model. Our approach allows us to understand better the responses of the real economy to the tightening of monetary policy moderated by different LTV levels. Our results show that higher loan to value ratios strengthen the effect of the monetary transmission mechanism to consumption and output.

Nastaveni ceskeho systemu rozpoctoveho urceni dani obecně splňuje zakladni principy popsane v teoretických přistupech fiskalniho federalismu. Cilem clanku je ověřit, jak změny v jeho jednotlivých parametrech ovlivňuji rozděleni daňových přijmů mezi obce ve vztahu k jejich rovnosti a stejnoměrnosti. K tomu využivame plný vzorek ceských obci v letech 2010 – 2016. Dopad změn jednotlivých parametrů je vyhodnocovan s použitim Giniho koeficientu. Srovnanim různých scenařů sdileni dani jsme dospěli k zavěru, že nedavne změny v nastaveni ceskeho rozpoctoveho urceni dani přispěly k rovnosti přerozdělovani daňových přijmů obcim (pocitano na hlavu). Nicmeně nase zavěry je třeba interpretovat v sirsich souvislostech, např. ve vztahu k dotacim poskytovaným obcim ze statniho rozpoctu.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are now experiencing the local consequences of a changing climate, environment, and society. Nonetheless, climate change research frequently remains at regional or national levels. Without locally grounded data, islanders’ perceived impacts of the changes might not be considered, thereby causing difficulties when policy and practice responses are implemented without accounting for local understandings. To contribute to addressing this gap, this study examines perceptions of climate change and associated environmental and social changes in two SIDS case studies: St. Kitts in the Caribbean Sea and Malé Atoll, Maldives in the Indian Ocean. Through these two case studies, we assess perceptions of changing social and natural environments through a closed-question, face-to-face survey. Our results suggest that in both island case studies, communities perceive environmental changes to be happening that demand negotiation with the social changes of daily life. Results also suggest that perceived climate change impacts are only part of the equation, as social and economic impacts reveal two case studies of changing island societies. While the geographic context in each case study differs, this study reveals the perceived impacts of climate change and social changes at a local level, providing valuable insights and angles for formulating policies and actions to deal with the myriad of social and environmental changes affecting SIDS.

The present paper deals with the interest and tax burden of corporations in the Czech industrial and banking sector as well as with the identification of the differences between the two sectors, including the evaluation of their developmental trends in the period after the economic and financial crisis of 2008. The interest and tax burden on business entities is determined by negative cash flows that reduce the value of their assets and equity. The basis of the research is the analysis of both components of the financial burden on corporations in these sectors over the past eight years and the identification of factors influencing their capital structure and performance. According to DuPont's equation, the burden is expressed by interest and the tax reduction of corporation's earnings before interest and taxes. The amount of the financial burden depends on the macroeconomic environment where the corporations operate. Our analysis identified an asynchronous dependence between the real payments and changes in the interest and tax rates. The reduction of both rates has had a positive effect on the performance of Czech corporations and increased their capital resources. They became more attractive to foreign investors, and the return on invested capital improved. Based on the results of the analysis, we evaluated the differences in the performance of the average corporation in the banking and industrial sectors.

This chapter discusses the use of regional labels as a way to reinvent local food, using data from a longitudinal research study on regional labeling in the Czech region Vysočina. The application and market presence of regional food labeling schemes are quite diverse across Europe; the broad range of food labeling policies within European Union member states reflects distinctions in historical evolution, organization, and development of food industries, as well as different consumer interests, attitudes, and behaviors. Regional labels signal above all authenticity and genuineness, and it is a sign that the product is actually produced in the region denoted by the name of the product. By exploring the application of a series of researches with both quantitative and qualitative designs, this case study examines the ways in which local producers and authorities may have reconstructed their knowledge of the regional food market and use of regional labels.

This study covers outcomes from field research in Maldives, completed in 2013. The research focus is on two main questions. The first deals with islanders’ perceptions of the impacts of climatic variability within the past few years, and whether they maintain the same sense of threat from future climate change. The second question focuses on the issue of out-migration from the islands. It assesses whether migration may be evaluated as an adaptation strategy and whether local people are willing to move outside Maldives to neighboring countries because of projected sea level rise impacts. Mixed methods were used during field research, comprising in-depth qualitative interviews with local stakeholders and quantitative questionnaires among the general islander population, mostly in the capital Male and nearby islands. The results suggest that respondents do not perceive sea level rise to be an actual environmental challenge for their households at the present time. But they admit it could become one of the key factors affecting Maldivian society and livelihoods in the future. Quantitative research further reveals that more than 50 percent of respondents considered out-migration to be a potential need or adaptation option in the future. However, many other factors (cultural, religious, economic, and social) play an important role in the decision of whether to migrate. Moreover, the interviewed experts who participated in the qualitative interviews expressed a more complex attitude toward the adaptation-migration issue and stressed that much will need to be done to increase adaptive capacity in situ before migration becomes necessary. They perceive out-migration to be the last option, to be undertaken only after other adaptation measures are exhausted and the islands are devastated by climate change impacts.

For the last few decades, Maldives has been seen as being at the forefront of addressing climate change impacts. The low elevation of the islands makes them vulnerable to slow‐onset hazards, such as coastal erosion, sea‐level rise, salinity intrusion, and change in monsoon patterns and hence rainfall. Consequently, migration has long been discussed as an adaptation strategy for the population. This study covers outcomes from our field research conducted among islanders in Malé, the capital of Maldives, in 2013. It contributes empirical evidence toward understanding complex relations among environmental challenges, climate change, and migration. We set up two main research questions. The first question explored islanders' perceptions of impacts of climatic variability in recent years and possible impacts of future climate change. The second question probed whether out‐migration from the islands might be considered to be an adaptation strategy and whether the islanders were willing to move outside Maldives due to projected climate change impacts. We conducted our field research in the capital Malé and nearby residential islands, using quantitative questionnaires with local respondents ( N =347). Our results suggest that, besides a set of actually experienced environmental and climate challenges, slow‐onset climate change impacts such as sea‐level rise are perceived as being one of the key factors affecting Maldivian society and livelihoods. More than 50% of respondents perceive future sea‐level rise to be a serious challenge at the national level and they accept that migration from islands to other countries might be a potential option. Conversely, from the individual perspective, sea‐level rise is not perceived by the local population as being one of their own important challenges. The reason is that many other factors – cultural, religious, economic and social – play an important role in decisionmaking about migrating or not.