BackgroundOlder persons accessing the Emergency Department (ED) spend more time and are at increased risk of poor outcomes. The Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), based on administrative data, predicts mortality of 75+ subjects visiting the ED.ObjectiveTo evaluate the effects of the implementation of the DSC in the ED.MethodsA pre-post comparison was conducted in the ED of a community hospital in Florence, Italy before and after the DSC was fully implemented. In the post-DSC phase, a clinical decision tree was applied: patients at low-mild risk (DSC class I and II) were assigned to Internal Medicine, those at moderate risk (class III) to Geriatrics, and those at high risk (class IV) required geriatric consultation before assignment. Outcome measures were ED length of stay (LOS) and, in patients admitted to Geriatrics, weight of the Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG), hospital LOS, and mortality.Results7,270 patients were enrolled in the pre-DSC and 4,725 in the post-DSC phase. ED LOS decreased from a median of 380 [206, 958] in the pre-DSC to 318 [178, 655] min in the post-DSC period (p<0.001). Class III represented the largest share of admissions to Geriatrics in the post-DSC period (57.7 % vs. 38.3 %; p<0.001). In patients admitted to Geriatrics, hospital LOS decreased by one day (p = 0.006) between the two study periods, with greater DRG weight and comparable mortality.ConclusionsApplication of the DSC seemed to ease patient flow and to reduce LOS of older patients in the ED and increased appropriateness of admissions to Geriatrics.

Objective: Studies suggesting that vulnerability increased short-term mortality in older patients with COVID-19 enrolled hospitalized patients and lacked COVID-negative comparators. Aim of this study was to examine the relationship between frailty and 1-year mortality in older patients with and without COVID-19, hospitalized and nonhospitalized. Design: Cohort study. Setting and Participants: Patients over 75 years old accessing the emergency departments (ED) were identified from the ED archives in Florence, Italy. Methods: Vulnerability status was estimated with the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC). COVID-19 hospital discharges (HC+) were compared with non-COVID-19 discharges (HC-). Linkage with a national COVID-19 registry identified nonhospitalized ED visitors with (NHC+) or without COVID-19 (NHC-). Results: In 1 year, 48.4% and 33.9% of 1745 HC+ and 15,846 HC- participants died (P < .001). Mortality increased from 27.5% to 64.0% in HC+ and from 19.9% to 51.1% in HC- across DSC classes Ito IV, with HC+ vs HC- hazard ratios between 1.6 and 2.2. Out of 1039 NHC+ and 18,722 NHC- participants, 18% and 8.7% died (P < .001). Mortality increased from 14.2% to 46.7% in NHC+ and from 2.9% to 26% in NHC- across DSC; NHC+ vs NHC- hazard ratios decreased from 5.3 in class Ito 2.0 in class IV. Conclusions and Implications: In hospitalized older patients, mortality increases with vulnerability similarly in the presence and in the absence of COVID-19. In nonhospitalized patients, vulnerability-associated excess mortality is milder in individuals with than in those without COVID-19. The disease reduces survival even when background risk is low. Thus, apparently uncomplicated patients deserve closer clinical monitoring than commonly applied. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Objectives: To assess concurrent validity of the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), a tool based on administrative data that predicts prognosis in older adults accessing the emergency department (ED), in terms of association with markers of poor functional and cognitive status. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting and Participants: Data were obtained in the AIDEA study, which enrolled a cohort of >= 75-year-old patients, accessing the ED of 2 hospitals in Florence, Italy. Methods: The DSC score and classes (I to IV, corresponding to an increasing risk of death) were obtained from administrative data. Information on health and functional status prior to ED access were collected from face-to-face, direct, or proxy interviews. The 4AT test was administered to screen for possible delirium. Bivariate comparisons of the prevalence of each functional and cognitive marker across 4 DSC classes were performed. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the multivariable risk of being in II, III, or IV DSC class vs I. Results: Among 3358 participants (mean age 83 years, men 44%), 32.9%, 30.3%, 19.5%, and 17.2% were in DSC class I, II, III, and IV. Preadmission abnormal functional and cognitive conditions, and delirium in the ED, were increasingly more common from DSC class I through IV (P <.001). In particular, the prevalence of total inability to walk increased from 2.9% (class I) to 23.4% (class IV). In multivariable analyses, this was the strongest predictor of being in progressively worse DSC classes, whereas feeling of exhaustion, reporting of serious falls, weight loss, and severe memory loss or diagnosis of dementia gave some contribution. Conclusions and Implications: The ability of the DSC to predict survival in older persons appears to rely on its prevailing association with markers of functional impairment. These results may support clinical use of the tool. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of AMDA - The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine.

Introduction. Because of the 24 months latency in the release of official data on causes of death, and in consideration of the limited testing capacity during the first pandemic wave, to estimate the COVID-19-related mortality in 2020, the evaluation of all-cause mortality excess is often used instead. Our study aimed at assessing whether in Central Tuscany, Italy, an excess all-cause mortality occurred in the 2019-2020 influenza season, which partly overlapped with the months of the first pandemic wave in which the impact of COVID-19 was the highest. Materials and Methods. Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates for 2019-2020 influenza season were compared with those of influenza seasons 2009-2010 to 2016-2017. Results. No all-cause mortality excess was observed in the 2019-2020 influenza season, which, on the contrary, was characterized by the lowest all-cause mortality rate. Conclusion. Our finding can be explained by the imposition, in early March 2020, of a national lockdown, which came into effect in an early epidemic phase in Tuscany, and thus limited the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as influenza, in the territory. In March and April, by causing the death of vulnerable elderly patients who had been spared by the mild seasonal flu in the prior months, COVID-19 acted with a harvesting effect.

BACKGROUND:SARS-CoV-2 vaccination has significantly reduced infection, hospitalization, and lethality rates among nursing home (NH) residents, but durability of vaccine effects remains unknown. This study investigated the long-term impact of BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine on breakthrough infection rates in the NHs of Florence, Italy. METHODS:Participants included residents living in Florence NHs as of April 1st, 2021, who had completed the primary SARS-CoV2 vaccination course by February 15th, 2021. Weekly rates of breakthrough infection were calculated between April 1st and October 31st 2021, with 7-day incidence defined as the number of new confirmed SARS-CoV-2-positive residents over the vaccinated resident census. Hospital admissions and deaths were recorded from local administrative and clinical sources. Patients admitted to NHs after April 1st were excluded to avoid confounding effect of different vaccination timing. RESULTS:Among 2271 vaccinated residents (mean age 86.6, 74% female), we recorded 105 cases of breakthrough infections. Rates of breakthrough infection remained very low in the 6 months after vaccination, but started to rise over the following months, peaking at 0.94%, and then became stable around 0.2%-0.3%. Over the study period, infection rates remained low as compared to the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during pre-vaccination period. Overall hospitalization and lethality rates were 8%. CONCLUSIONS:Among vaccinated NH residents, rates of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization and lethality remained low up to 9 months following primary vaccination course. A mild resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, after 6 months from vaccination, suggests a decline of vaccine effectiveness in preventing transmission.

Background: Tdap (Tetanus-Diphtheria-acellular Pertussis) vaccination is nowadays a worldwide-recommended practice to immunize pregnant women. The vaccine administration at the third trimester of pregnancy (as recommended by the WHO) would ensure antibody protection to both the mother and the newborn and has contributed to the significant drop of pertussis cases in infants. The aim of this observational study was to describe for the first time the socio-demographic characteristics and determinants of Tdap vaccination adhesion of pregnant women in the Florentine area. Methods: Information about parents’ vaccination status, their citizenship, employment type and mothers’ previous pregnancies and/or abortions were collected at the time of birth through the assistance birth certificates (CedAP) both for the years 2019 and 2020. This archive and the regional SISPC (Collective Prevention Healthcare Information System) linked using an anonymous unique personal identifier to retrieve the mother’s vaccination status. Results: We found an overall Tdap vaccination adhesion of 43% in 2019 and 47.3% in 2020. Several socio-demographic parameters would determine an increased vaccination adhesion, including parents’ geographical origin, mothers’ age and educational background, as well as the number of previous deliveries, abortions or voluntary termination of pregnancy. Conclusions: Since not much data are available on this topic in Italy, this study may constitute the baseline information for Tdap vaccination adhesion in pregnant women in the Florentine area (Italy). Thus, future successful vaccination strategies may be designed accordingly.

Background: In randomized clinical trials, compared to Internal Medicine, admission to Geriatrics improved clinical outcomes of frail older patients accessing the Emergency Department (ED). Whether this advantage is maintained also in the "real world" is uncertain. We compared long-term survival of patients admitted to Geriatrics or Internal Medicine wards after stratification for background risk and across a variety of discharge diagnoses. Method: Data were derived from the "Silver Code National Project," an observational study of 180,079 unselected 75+ years old persons, admitted via the ED to Internal Medicine (n = 169,717, 94.2%) or Geriatrics (n = 10,362) wards in Italy. The Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), based on administrative data, was applied to balance for background risk between participants admitted to Geriatrics or Internal Medicine. Results: One-year mortality was 33.7%, lower in participants discharged from Geriatrics (32.1%) than from Internal Medicine (33.8%; p < .001), and increased progressively across four DSC risk classes (p < .001). Admission to Geriatrics was associated with survival advantage in DSC class II to IV participants, with HR (95% CI) of 0.88 (0.83-0.94), 0.86 (0.80-0.92), and 0.92 (0.86-0.97), respectively. Cerebrovascular diseases, cognitive disorders, and heart failure were the discharge diagnoses with the widest survival benefit from admission to Geriatrics, which was mostly observed in DSC class III. Conclusions: Admission to Geriatrics may provide long-term survival benefit in subjects who, based on the DSC, may be considered at an intermediate risk. Specific clinical conditions should be considered in the ED to improve selection of patients to be targeted for Geriatrics admission.

Evidence on the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in nursing home (NHs) residents is limited. We examined the impact of the BNT162b2 mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine on the course of the epidemic in NHs in the Florence Health District, Italy, before and after vaccination. Moreover, we assessed survival and hospitalization by vaccination status in SARS-CoV-2-positive cases occurring during the post-vaccination period. We calculated the weekly infection rates during the pre-vaccination (1 October–26 December 2020) and post-vaccination period (27 December 2020–31 March 2021). Cox analysis was used to analyze survival by vaccination status. The study involved 3730 residents (mean age 84, 69% female). Weekly infection rates fluctuated during the pre-vaccination period (1.8%–6.5%) and dropped to zero during the post-vaccination period. Nine unvaccinated (UN), 56 partially vaccinated (PV) and 35 fully vaccinated (FV) residents tested SARS-CoV-2+ during the post-vaccination period. FV showed significantly lower hospitalization and mortality rates than PV and UV (hospitalization: FV 3%, PV 14%, UV 33%; mortality: FV 6%, PV 18%, UV 56%). The death risk was 84% and 96% lower in PV (HR 0.157, 95%CI 0.049–0.491) and FV (HR 0.037, 95%CI 0.006–0.223) versus UV. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was followed by a marked decline in infection rates and was associated with lower morbidity and mortality among infected NH residents.

BACKGROUND:Nursing home (NH) residents have been dramatically affected by COVID-19, with extremely high rates of hospitalization and mortality.AIMS:To describe the features and impact of an assistance model involving an intermediate care mobile medical specialist team (GIROT, Gruppo Intervento Rapido Ospedale Territorio) aimed at delivering "hospital-at-nursing home" care to NH residents with COVID-19 in Florence, Italy.METHODS:The GIROT activity was set-up during the first wave of the pandemic (W1, March-April 2020) and became a structured healthcare model during the second (W2, October 2020-January 2021). The activity involved (1) infection transmission control among NHs residents and staff, (2) comprehensive geriatric assessment including prognostication and geriatric syndromes management, (3) on-site diagnostic assessment and protocol-based treatment of COVID-19, (4) supply of nursing personnel to understaffed NHs. To estimate the impact of the GIROT intervention, we reported hospitalization and infection lethality rates recorded in SARS-CoV-2-positive NH residents during W1 and W2.RESULTS:The GIROT activity involved 21 NHs (1159 residents) and 43 NHs (2448 residents) during W1 and W2, respectively. The percentage of infected residents was higher in W2 than in W1 (64.5% vs. 38.8%), while both hospitalization and lethality rates significantly decreased in W2 compared to W1 (10.1% vs 58.2% and 23.4% vs 31.1%, respectively).DISCUSSION:Potentiating on-site care in the NHs paralleled a decrease of hospital admissions with no increase of lethality.CONCLUSIONS:An innovative "hospital-at-nursing home" patient-centred care model based on comprehensive geriatric assessment may provide a valuable contribution in fighting COVID-19 in NH residents.

BACKGROUND:the COVID-19 pandemic represents a challenge for health systems around the world, with just under 10,000 cases in Tuscany Region (Central Italy) and about 4,500 in the Local Health Unit (LHU) 'Toscana Centro', updated on 11 May 2020. The risk factors reported are several, including age, being male, and some chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. However, the relative importance of chronic diseases is still to be explored.OBJECTIVES:to evaluate the role of chronic diseases on the risk to develop clinically evident (at least mild symptomatic) forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population of the LHU Toscana Centro.DESIGN:case-population study.SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:'case' is a subject with SARS-CoV-2 positive swab with at least mild clinical status, who lives in the LHU Toscana Centro area; 'controls' are all people residing in the LHU Toscana Centro area at 1 January 2020. People aged under 30 and patients living in nursing care homes are excluded from the analysis.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:the analysis assesses the effect of gender, age, neoplasm, and the main chronic diseases on the onset of an infection with at least mild symptoms by calculating odds ratios (OR) by multivariate logistic regression models (to produce adjusted OR by potential confounders).RESULTS:among the 1,840 cases, compared to the general population, the presence of males and over-60-year-old people is greater. Almost all the considered chronic diseases are more frequent among the cases, compared to the general population. A chronic patient has a 68% greater risk to be positive with at least mild symptoms. Many of the considered diseases show an effect on the risk of getting COVID-19 in a symptomatic form, which remains even adjusting by other comorbidities. The main ones include heart failure, psychiatric disorders, Parkinson's disease, and rheumatic diseases.CONCLUSIONS:these results confirm evidence already shown in other studies on COVID-19 patients and add information on the chronic diseases attributable risk in the population, referred to the symptomatic forms and adjusted by age, gender or the possible copresence of more diseases. These risk estimates should guide prevention interventions by health services in order to protect the chronic patients affected by the pathologies most at risk.

We present here the differential analysis of metabolite-metabolite association networks constructed from an array of 24 serum metabolites identified and quantified via nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in a cohort of 825 patients of which 123 died within 2 years from acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We investigated differences in metabolite connectivity of patients who survived, at 2 years, the AMI event, and we characterized metabolite-metabolite association networks specific to high and low risks of death according to four different risk parameters, namely, acute coronary syndrome classification, Killip, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and metabolomics NOESY RF risk score. We show significant differences in the connectivity patterns of several low-molecular-weight molecules, implying variations in the regulation of several metabolic pathways regarding branched-chain amino acids, alanine, creatinine, mannose, ketone bodies, and energetic metabolism. Our results demonstrate that the characterization of metabolite-metabolite association networks is a promising and powerful tool to investigate AMI patients according to their outcomes at a molecular level.

Abstract In randomized clinical trials, compared to Internal Medicine (IM), admission to Geriatrics (G) improved clinical outcomes of frail older patients accessing the Emergency Department (ED). Whether this advantage is maintained also in the “real world” is uncertain. We compared long-term survival of patients admitted to G or IM wards after stratification for background risk and across a variety of discharge diagnoses. Data were derived from the “Silver Code National Project (SCNP)”, an observational study of 180,079 unselected 75+ years old persons, admitted via the ED to IM (n=169,717, 94.2%) or G (n=10,362) wards in Italy. The Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), based on administrative data, was applied to balance for background risk between participants admitted to G or IM. One-year mortality was 33.7%, it was lower in participants discharged from G than IM (32.1 and 33.8%, respectively; p<0.001), and increased progressively across four DSC risk classes (p<0.001). Admission to G was associated with survival benefit in DSC class II to IV participants, with HR (95% CI) of 0.88 (0.83-0.94), 0.86 (0.80-0.92) and 0.92 (0.86-0.97), respectively. Cerebrovascular diseases, cognitive disorders, and heart failure were the ICD-9 coded diagnoses with the widest survival benefit from admission to G, which was mostly observed in DSC class III. In conclusion, admission to G may provide long-term survival benefit in subjects who, based on the DSC, may be considered at an intermediate risk. Specific clinical conditions should be considered in the ED to improve selection of patients to be targeted for G admission.

The effects of different COVID-19 swab testing policies in Italy need investigation. We examined the relationship between the number of COVID-19 swab tests (per 10,000 population) performed from February 24 through March 27 and 7-day lagged COVID-19 mortality (per 10,000 population) in four regions of northern Italy. Lombardy, Piedmont, and initially, also Emilia-Romagna, which followed recommendations for limiting swab testing to symptomatic subjects requiring hospitalization, had a much steeper increase in mortality with increasing number of tests performed than Veneto, which applied a policy of broader testing. The relationship between tests performed and mortality declined in Emilia-Romagna in coincidence with a substantial increase in the number of tests performed on March 18. When the cumulative number of tests performed was regressed linearly toward lagged mortality in Lombardy and Veneto, the slope of the regression was 133 in Veneto and 10.4 tests per one death in Lombardy. These findings suggest that the strategy adopted in Veneto, similar to that in South Korea, was effective in containing COVID-19 epidemics and should be applied in other regions of Italy and countries in Europe.

Optimal blood pressure (BP) control can prevent major adverse health events, but target values are still controversial, especially in older patients with comorbidities, frailty and disability. To evaluate mortality according to BP values in a cohort of older adults enrolled in the Fiesole Misurata Study, after a 6-year follow-up. Living status as of December 31, 2016 was obtained in 385 subjects participating in the Fiesole Misurata Study. Patients' characteristics were analysed to detect predictors of mortality. At baseline, all participants had undergone office BP measurement and a comprehensive geriatric assessment. After a 6-year follow-up, 97 participants had died (25.2%). After adjustment for comorbidities and comprehensive geriatric assessment, mortality was significantly lower for SBP 140–159 mmHg as compared with 120–139 mmHg (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.33–0.89). This result was also confirmed in patients aged 75 + (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.29–0.85), and in those with disability (HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.15–0.86) or taking antihypertensive medications (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28–0.86). An intensive BP control may lead to greater harm than benefit in older adults. Indeed, the European guidelines recommend caution in BP lowering in older patients, especially if functionally compromised, to minimize the risk of hypotension-related adverse events. After a 6-year follow-up, mortality risk was lower in participants with SBP 140–159 mmHg as compared with SBP 120–139 mmHg, in the overall population and in the subgroups of subjects aged 75 + , with a disability or taking anti-hypertensive medications.

BACKGROUND: the COVID-19 pandemic represents a challenge for health systems around the world, with just under 10,000 cases in Tuscany Region (Central Italy) and about 4,500 in the Local Health Unit (LHU) 'Toscana Centro', updated on 11 May 2020. The risk factors reported are several, including age, being male, and some chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. However, the relative importance of chronic diseases is still to be explored. OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the role of chronic diseases on the risk to develop clinically evident (at least mild symptomatic) forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population of the LHU Toscana Centro. DESIGN: case-population study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 'case' is a subject with SARS-CoV-2 positive swab with at least mild clinical status, who lives in the LHU Toscana Centro area; 'controls' are all people residing in the LHU Toscana Centro area at 1 January 2020. People aged under 30 and patients living in nursing care homes are excluded from the analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the analysis assesses the effect of gender, age, neoplasm, and the main chronic diseases on the onset of an infection with at least mild symptoms by calculating odds ratios (OR) by multivariate logistic regression models (to produce adjusted OR by potential confounders). RESULTS: among the 1,840 cases, compared to the general population, the presence of males and over-60-year-old people is greater. Almost all the considered chronic diseases are more frequent among the cases, compared to the general population. A chronic patient has a 68% greater risk to be positive with at least mild symptoms. Many of the considered diseases show an effect on the risk of getting COVID-19 in a symptomatic form, which remains even adjusting by other comorbidities. The main ones include heart failure, psychiatric disorders, Parkinson's disease, and rheumatic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: these results confirm evidence already shown in other studies on COVID-19 patients and add information on the chronic diseases attributable risk in the population, referred to the symptomatic forms and adjusted by age, gender or the possible copresence of more diseases. These risk estimates should guide prevention interventions by health services in order to protect the chronic patients affected by the pathologies most at risk.

Background and aimsAim of the present study is to determine the role of obesity as a risk factor for COronaVirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) hospitalization.Methods and resultsThis observational study was performed using Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) Tuscany COVID-19 database by the Agenzia Regionale Sanità (ARS), including all COVID-19 cases registered until April 30th, 2020, with reported information on chronic diseases. The principal outcome was hospitalization. An age and gender-adjusted logistic regression model was used to assess the association of clinical and demographic characteristics with hospitalization. Further multivariate models were applied. Of 4481 included subjects (36.9% aged over 70 years), 1907 (42.6%) were admitted to hospital. Obesity was associated with hospitalization after adjusting for age and gender. The association of obesity with hospitalization retained statistical significance in a fully adjusted model, including possible confounders (OR: 2.99 [IC 95% 2.04–4.37]). The effect of obesity was more evident in younger (<70 years) than in older (≥70 years) subjects.ConclusionsThe present data confirm that obesity is associated with an increased risk of hospitalization in patients with COVID-19. Interestingly, the association of obesity with hospitalization was greater in younger (<70 years) patients.

Abstract Background The GBD study allows comparison of health conditions among different societies and cultures. This permits also to estimate health variations over a long time in a single nation, overcoming the difficulties deriving from social and economic changes. INAIL, the National Institute for Insurance against Accidents at Work, provides since 1884, detailed data about the number of events and their consequences, age and sex of injured workers, and the total number of insured workers. Such data allow us to estimate DALYs in terms of incidence and prevalence, and under different mortality models. Methods 1.8 mln. individual injury records occurred in 1990-2015 were transcoded into GBD injury categories. YLLs and YLDs were calculated considering life expectancy, DWs and duration, then distributed by compensation category. The YLLs and YLDs of permanent disabilities have been assessed with reference both to the life expectancy of the GBD 2017 and, in a competitive mortality model, to mean values at the time of the accident. Estimated DALYs were assessed both in terms of incidence and prevalence. Results Around 1900, an industrial worker suffered on average 0.087 incident DALY/year for occupational injuries, or 0.058 in a competitive mortality model. These values remained almost stationary until WWII when they showed a peak around 0.11, then declined to about a third in the 1970s, and to about a twentieth in 2017. The YLL / DALY ratio was 0.82 around 1900, then slowly decreased to less than 0.5 in the late 1930s, rose to a new peak around 0.8 in WWII, then diminished again to 0.32 in 2017. Considering prevalence, variations are much slower, due to the expected average durations of permanent disabilities, between 32.5 and 52 years. Risk breakdown by main industry sectors is ongoing. Conclusions DALY rate and YLL/DALY injuries declined largely along time. Nevertheless, such events continue to leave a very long-term legacy of disabilities. Key messages INAIL data permit to estimate burden for occupational injuries occurred in Italy along over a century. Injury burden declined over time, but continues to leave a legacy of long-term disabilities.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

OBJECTIVE:Identification of older patients at risk, among those accessing the emergency department (ED), may support clinical decision-making. To this purpose, we developed and validated the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), a score based on real-time linkage of administrative data.DESIGN AND SETTING:The 'Silver Code National Project (SCNP)', a non-concurrent cohort study, was used for retrospective development and internal validation of the DSC. External validation was obtained in the 'Anziani in DEA (AIDEA)' concurrent cohort study, where the DSC was generated by the software routinely used in the ED.PARTICIPANTS:The SCNP contained 281 321 records of 180 079 residents aged 75+ years from Tuscany and Lazio, Italy, admitted via the ED to Internal Medicine or Geriatrics units. The AIDEA study enrolled 4425 subjects aged 75+ years (5217 records) accessing two EDs in the area of Florence, Italy.INTERVENTIONS:None.OUTCOME MEASURES:Primary outcome: 1-year mortality.SECONDARY OUTCOMES:7 and 30-day mortality and 1-year recurrent ED visits.RESULTS:Advancing age, male gender, previous hospital admission, discharge diagnosis, time from discharge and polypharmacy predicted 1-year mortality and contributed to the DSC in the development subsample of the SCNP cohort. Based on score quartiles, participants were classified into low, medium, high and very high-risk classes. In the SCNP validation sample, mortality increased progressively from 144 to 367 per 1000 person-years, across DSC classes, with HR (95% CI) of 1.92 (1.85 to 1.99), 2.71 (2.61 to 2.81) and 5.40 (5.21 to 5.59) in class II, III and IV, respectively versus class I (p<0.001). Findings were similar in AIDEA, where the DSC predicted also recurrent ED visits in 1 year. In both databases, the DSC predicted 7 and 30-day mortality.CONCLUSIONS:The DSC, based on administrative data available in real time, predicts prognosis of older patients and might improve their management in the ED.