We present a reanalysis of the ground-based microwave measurements of upper stratospheric ClO from Mauna Kea over 1992-2023 made by the Chlorine Oxide Experiment (ChlOE) instrument. In order to reduce instrumental baseline artifacts, the retrieval makes use of the difference of daytime and nighttime spectra (the nighttime ClO spectra are much smaller) to produce a day-minus-night ClO mixing ratio, which is the fundamental quantity analyzed throughout this study. Upper stratospheric ClO values peaked in similar to 1997, and the trend in the upper stratospheric ChlOE measurements from 1997 to 2023 was found to be -0.4 +/- 0.3%/yr (2 sigma). Comparisons of ChlOE measurements with a combined coincident Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data set showed a relative trend of +0.3% +/- 0.3%/yr (2 sigma) over 1992-2023, where a positive trend indicates that the ChlOE ClO measurements are increasing relative to those from MLS. Restricting the comparisons to ChlOE and Aura MLS over 2004-2023, resulted in relative trends that varied by pressure level, from +0.15%/yr to +0.42%/yr, all agreeing to within the 2 sigma uncertainty. Over the period 2004-2021, the average ChlOE trend for the three levels was -0.3 +/- 0.4%/yr, but, with the addition of the unusually high ClO measured in 2022 and 2023 the trend from 2004 to 2023 became 0.0 +/- 0.4%/yr. The increase in ClO during 2022 is, at least in part, caused by dynamical variations. The higher ClO in 2023 is closely correlated with the presence of increased H2O from the Hunga eruption, which affects the ClO chemistry.

Abstract. We provide a quantitative test of the recent suggestion (Brunton et al., 2023) that supernovae could significantly disrupt planetary ozone layers through a multi-month flux of soft X-rays that produce ozone-destroying odd nitrogen (e.g. NO and NO2). Since soft X-rays do not directly penetrate down to the ozone layer, this effect would be indirect and require downward transport of NOx from the mesosphere. Mirroring previous studies of the indirect effects of energetic particle precipitation (EPP-IE), we call this the X-ray Indirect Effect (Xray-IE). We use the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) to simulate the production of NO and its transport into the stratosphere. We model the soft X-ray flux as if it were a multi-month long solar flare and use our previously developed solar flare model to simulate the soft X-ray enhancement. Our results yield significant enhancement in stratospheric odd nitrogen, most dramatically in the Southern Hemisphere. The most global effects are seen in the upper stratosphere at pressure surfaces between 1–3 hPa (about 42–48 km) consistent with previous observations of the EPP-IE. We then use a detailed stratospheric photochemistry model to quantify the effects of this NOx enhancement on ozone. Widespread ozone reductions of 8–15 % are indicated; however, because these are limited to the upper edges of the ozone layer, the effects on the ozone column are limited to 1–2 %. We thus conclude that the effects of a multi-month X-ray event on biologically damaging UV radiation at the surface is also likely to be small.

We present ground‐based microwave measurements of mesospheric water vapor made by the Water Vapor Millimeter‐wave Spectrometer (WVMS) instruments since the early 1990s from sites in California, Hawaii, and New Zealand. These measurements are compared with coincident measurements from the Halogen Occultation Experiment, the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry; all of which combine to cover the entire time period of the ground‐based measurements. Comparisons are presented both on ∼weekly timescales in order to better identify discontinuities in the relative differences and on annual timescales in order to better study geophysical variations. The WVMS retrievals shown here are available on the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change database. The range of WVMS trends and the differences from the satellite trends, with the latter varying over a range of ∼3%/decade, provide an estimate of how accurately it would be possible to determine multidecadal trends using ground‐based microwave instruments in a postsatellite era. This uncertainty is comparable to the trend in mesospheric water vapor that is expected to have occurred since the early 1990s.

We examine Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) data to better understand solar flare irradiance, and how that irradiance may vary for large events. We measure scaling laws relating Geostationary Orbital Environmental Satellites (GOES) flare classes to irradiance in 21 lines measured with SDO/EVE, formed across a wide range of temperatures, and find that this scaling depends on the line-formation temperature. We extrapolate these irradiance values to large events, exceeding X10. In order to create full spectra, however, we need a physical model of the irradiance. We present the first results of a new physical model of solar flare irradiance, NRLFLARE, that sums together a series of flare loops to calculate the spectral irradiance ranging from the X-rays through the far-UV (≈0 to 1250 Å), constrained only by GOES/X-ray Sensors observations. We test this model against SDO/EVE data. The model spectra and time evolution compares well in high-temperature emission, but cooler lines show large discrepancies. We speculate that the discrepancies are likely due to both a nonuniform cross-section of the flaring loops as well as opacity effects. We then show that allowing the cross-sectional area to vary with height significantly improves agreement with observations, and is therefore a crucial parameter needed to accurately model the intensity of spectral lines, particularly in the transition region from 4.7≲logT≲6 .

Abstract We present results from a suite of models designed to simulate solar flare effects on the D and E region of the ionosphere. This suite includes models of the solar spectrum, the ionosphere and of HF radiowave propagation. A central component of this system is the development of photoelectron ionization enhancement factors with higher energy resolution in the soft X‐ray spectral region that can be used to supplement existing ionization schemes currently implemented in upper atmospheric general circulation models. We tested this photoelectron model in the NCAR Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Mesosphere‐ Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME‐GCM) and in a photochemical model of the D region. In both cases, we compared predicted flare response using two different input solar flare spectra. One is the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and the other is a physics based model called NRLFLARE. Our predictions for the E region were compared with incoherent scatter radar data and suggest that enhanced flux in the 1–2 nm spectral region, as indicated by NRLFLARE, is important for reproducing the observations. For the D region, we combined our theoretical results for the X1.3 flare of 7 September 2017 with ray tracing calculations that suggest 20–40 db of 6.4 MHz absorption. This agrees with previously published observations and model estimates, all of which suggest greater HF absorption than the operational D region absorption prediction model (swpc.noaa.gov/products/d‐region‐absorption‐predictions‐d‐rap). Finally, our theoretical comparison with previously published empirical models derived from very low frequency data was less clear due, in part, to large differences between the different empirical models.

An altitude profile of Nitric Oxide (NO) in the 80–110 km altitude range was measured in the polar night from a sounding rocket on 27 January 2020. The observations were made using the technique of stellar occultation with a UV spectrograph observing the γ (1,0) band of NO near 215 nm. The tangent point for the altitude profile was at 74° latitude, a location that had been in darkness for 80 days. The retrieved slant column density profile is interpreted using an assumed four‐parameter analytic profile shape. Retrievals of the fitting parameters yield a profile with a peak NO concentration of 2.2 ± 0.7 × 10 8 cm −3 at 93.5 ± 4.1 km. The observations were made during a time of minimum solar and geomagnetic activity. The NO maximum retrieved from the rocket profile is significantly larger in abundance and lower in altitude than other observations on the same day at nearby latitudes just outside the polar night. These rocket‐borne results are consistent with NO that is created over the course over the polar winter and is confined to high latitudes in the polar night by the mesospheric polar vortex. During the course of that confinement the abundance increases due to the lack of photodissociation, allowing the NO to descend. We show that the observed descent can be explained by eddy diffusion‐driven transport, though vertical advection cannot be ruled out.

Abstract Recent advances in data processing from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument on the NASA Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite allow observation of bright mesospheric clouds at mid‐latitudes (<60°). When adjusted for the evolving local time (LT) of the CIPS observations during its mission we find that the frequencies of these bright clouds in the northern hemisphere show no trend from 2007 to 2021 and no dependence on the solar cycle, although the interannual variability is extreme. Rather we investigate the possible link with propellant exhaust from orbital vehicles, typically launched at lower latitudes. By filtering the launch record equatorward of 60°N using only those launches between 23 and 10 LT, we find a strong correlation with the observed mid‐latitude mesospheric cloud frequency variability between 56° and 60°N. Meridional winds at 92 km from a meteorological analysis system reveal that these morning launches occurred at the time of maximum northward transport. Based upon this combination of high correlation between the cloud frequency and the launch record plus favorable transport conditions, it is likely that space traffic has a strong influence on the interannual variability of these bright mesospheric clouds.

The mesospheric polar vortex (MPV) plays a critical role in coupling the atmosphere-ionosphere system, so its accurate simulation is imperative for robust predictions of the thermosphere and ionosphere. While the stratospheric polar vortex is widely understood and characterized, the mesospheric polar vortex is much less well-known and observed, a short-coming that must be addressed to improve predictability of the ionosphere. The winter MPV facilitates top-down coupling via the communication of high energy particle precipitation effects from the thermosphere down to the stratosphere, though the details of this mechanism are poorly understood. Coupling from the bottom-up involves gravity waves (GWs), planetary waves (PWs), and tidal interactions that are distinctly different and important during weak vs. strong vortex states, and yet remain poorly understood as well. Moreover, generation and modulation of GWs by the large wind shears at the vortex edge contribute to the generation of traveling atmospheric disturbances and traveling ionospheric disturbances. Unfortunately, representation of the MPV is generally not accurate in state-of-the-art general circulation models, even when compared to the limited observational data available. Models substantially underestimate eastward momentum at the top of the MPV, which limits the ability to predict upward effects in the thermosphere. The zonal wind bias responsible for this missing momentum in models has been attributed to deficiencies in the treatment of GWs and to an inaccurate representation of the high-latitude dynamics. In the coming decade, simulations of the MPV must be improved.

We have developed an empirical model of nitric oxide (NO) number density at altitudes from ∼73 km to the exobase, as a function of altitude, latitude, day of year, solar zenith angle, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. The model is part of the NRLMSIS® 2.1 empirical model of atmospheric temperature and species densities; this upgrade to NRLMSIS 2.0 consists solely of the addition of NO. MSIS 2.1 assimilates observations from six space‐based instruments: UARS/HALOE, SNOE, Envisat/MIPAS, ACE/FTS, Odin/SMR, and AIM/SOFIE. We additionally evaluated the new model against independent extant NO data sets. In this paper, we describe the formulation and fitting of the model, examine biases between the data sets and model and among the data sets, compare with another empirical NO model (NOEM), and discuss scientific aspects of our analysis.

We use the Specified Dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended (SD-WACCMX) to model the descent of nitric oxide (NO) and other mesospheric tracers in the extended, elevated stratopause phase of the 2013 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). The dynamics are specified with a high-altitude version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM-HA). Consistent with our earlier published results, we find that using a high-altitude meteorological analysis to nudge WACCMX allows for a realistic simulation of the descent of lower-thermospheric nitric oxide down to the lower mesosphere, near 60 km. This is important because these simulations only included auroral electrons and did not consider additional sources of NO from higher-energy particles that might directly produce ionization, and hence nitric oxide, below 80–85 km. This suggests that the so-called energetic particle precipitation indirect effect (EPP-IE) can be accurately simulated, at least in years of low geomagnetic activity, such as 2013, without the need for additional NO production, provided the meteorology is accurately constrained. Despite the general success of WACCMX in bringing upper-mesospheric NO down to 55–60 km, a detailed comparison of the WACCMX fields with the analyzed NAVGEM-HA H2O and satellite NO and H2O data from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) reveals significant differences in the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions at lower altitudes. This stems from the tendency for WACCMX descent to maximize at sub-polar latitudes, and while such sub-polar descent is seen in the NAVGEM-HA analysis, it is more transient than in the WACCMX simulation. These differences are linked to differences in the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) circulation between NAVGEM-HA and WACCMX, most likely arising from differences in how gravity wave forcing is represented. To attempt to compensate for the differing distributions of model vs. observed NO and to enable us to quantify the total amount of upper-atmospheric NO delivered to the stratopause region, we use potential vorticity and equivalent latitude coordinates. Preliminary results suggest both model and observations are generally consistent with NO totals in the range of 0.1–0.25 gigamoles (GM).

This study quantifies mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) oxygen chemical contributions to the global thermosphere‐ionosphere (T‐I) semiannual oscillation (SAO) using a series of numerical experiments from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere‐ionosphere‐mesosphere‐electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME‐GCM) that isolate essential chemical processes affecting O and O 2 in the MLT region. We track the vertical dynamical, diffusive, and chemical fluxes of O and O 2 in and out of two control volumes between ∼80 and 130 km using a finite volume approach to the individual species continuity equation to investigate their relative importance on the global T‐I SAO. TIME‐GCM results indicate that the global T‐I SAO amplitude and phase is fairly insensitive to significant changes in odd oxygen chemical reaction rates in the MLT. While chemistry has an appreciable effect on O in the MLT region, sensitivity to changes in odd oxygen and odd hydrogen chemical rates appear to be offset by a consequent adjustment in the vertical bulk wind and eddy diffusive transport of O locally, rendering their effects inconsequential to the global T‐I SAO aloft. The implications of our findings for reproducing a self‐consistent global T‐I SAO in the NCAR thermosphere‐ionosphere‐electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE‐GCM) with a lower boundary near ∼100 km are discussed. Specifically, including latitude‐season variations in O, O 2 , and N 2 from NRLMSIS® 2.0 at the lower boundary of the TIE‐GCM near ∼100 km improves its representation of the climatological T‐I SAO. However, reformulating the TIE‐GCM temperature lower boundary condition could further improve its ability to simulate the T‐I SAO from first‐principles.

Abstract. We use the Specified Dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended (SD-WACCMX) to model the descent of nitric oxide (NO) and other mesospheric tracers in the extended, elevated stratopause phase of the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). The dynamics are specified with a high altitude version of the Navy Global Environmental model (NAVGEM-HA). Consistent with our earlier published results, we find that using a high altitude meteorological analysis to nudge WACCMX allows for a realistic simulation of the descent of lower thermospheric nitric oxide down to the lower mesosphere, near 60 km. This is important because these simulations only included auroral electrons, and did not consider additional sources of NO from higher energy particles, for example, medium energy electron precipitation (> 30 keV). This suggests that the so-called energetic particle precipitation indirect effect (EPP-IE) can be accurately simulated, at least in years of low geomagnetic activity, such as 2013, without the need for additional NO production, provided the meteorology is accurately constrained. Despite the general success of WACCMX in simulating mesospheric NO, a detailed comparison of the WACCMX fields with the analyzed NAVGEM-HA H2O and satellite NO and H2O data from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) reveals significant differences in the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions in the 45–55 km region. This stems from the tendency for WACCMX descent to maximize at sub-polar latitudes and while such sub-polar descent is seen in the NAVGEM-HA analysis, it is more transient than in the WACCMX simulation. These differences are linked to differences in the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) circulation between NAVGEM-HA and WACCMX, most likely arising from small differences in how gravity wave forcing is represented. To attempt to compensate for the differing distributions of model vs. observed NO and to enable us to quantify the total amount of upper atmospheric NO delivered to the stratopause region, we use potential vorticity and equivalent latitude coordinates. Preliminary results suggest both model and observations are generally consistent with NO totals in the range of 0.1–0.25 gigamoles (GM).

The energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect (IE) refers to the downward transport of reactive odd nitrogen (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) produced by EPP (EPP‐NO x ) from the polar winter mesosphere and lower thermosphere to the stratosphere where it can destroy ozone. Previous studies of the EPP IE examined NO x descent averaged over the polar region, but the work presented here considers longitudinal variations. We report that the January 2009 split Arctic vortex in the stratosphere left an imprint on the distribution of NO near the mesopause, and that the magnitude of EPP‐NO x descent in the upper mesosphere depends strongly on the planetary wave (PW) phase. We focus on an 11‐day case study in late January immediately following the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming during which regional‐scale Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) formed atop the strengthening mesospheric vortex. The LCSs emerged over the north Atlantic in the vicinity of the trough of a 10‐day westward traveling planetary wave. Over the next week, the LCSs acted to confine NO‐rich air to polar latitudes, effectively prolonging its lifetime as it descended into the top of the polar vortex. Both a whole atmosphere data assimilation model and satellite observations show that the PW trough remained coincident in space and time with the NO‐rich air as both migrated westward over the Canadian Arctic. Estimates of descent rates indicate five times stronger descent inside the PW trough compared to other longitudes. This case serves to set the stage for future climatological analysis of NO transport via LCSs.

Time series of mesospheric temperature and pressure altitude are produced through combining observations by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER), and Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instruments. Time series of both temperature and pressure altitude are produced through the combination of HALOE/SABER providing 29 years in length and HALOE/SOFIE providing 22 years in length. The different sampling of the three instruments constrains the time series to June in the northern hemisphere and December in the southern hemisphere and 6470 degrees in both hemispheres. We interpret the time series by fitting them to simple descriptions of the variations including solar, intra-hemispheric, inter-hemispheric, and linear trend terms. The inferred intra- and inter-hemispheric terms show that dynamical influences rival solar variability in the mesosphere. We find a robust result that the mesosphere is in general cooling at most altitudes at approximately 1-2 K per decade in response to greenhouse gas increases. That cooling leads to a shrinking of the atmosphere on the order of 100-200 m per decade. The shrinking leads to a reduction in cooling and eventually a warming near 0.005 hPa due to hydrostatic contraction.

The polar vortices play a central role in vertically coupling the Sun-Earth system by facilitating the descent of reactive odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2) produced in the atmosphere by energetic particle precipitation (EPP-NOx). Downward transport of EPP-NOx from the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) to the stratosphere inside the winter polar vortex is particularly impactful in the wake of prolonged sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. This work is motivated by the fact that state-of-the-art global climate models severely underestimate EPP-NOx abundances in the polar MLT. It is not clear whether this deficiency is due to a missing NOx source or to inadequate transport processes. As a step toward understanding the transport pathways by which MLT air enters the top of the polar vortex, we explore the extent to which planetary waves impact the geographic distribution of NO near the polar winter mesopause in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension combined with data assimilation using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (WACCMX+DART). We present planetary wave-driven NO patterns near the polar winter mesopause during 16 case studies from the Arctic winters of 2005/2006 through 2018/2019. During all cases the model is in reasonable agreement with Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) derived zonal winds and Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment (SOFIE) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) NO measurements. Superposed Epoch Analysis is employed to diagnose typical mesopause planetary wave behavior and vertical transport characteristics during 10 minor and 6 major SSW events. Results show that descent of NO into the top of the polar vortex is enhanced by about a factor of 4 in traveling planetary wave troughs vs. in ridges and that this planetary wave-driven enhanced NO descent occurs during both minor and major SSW events. These results present a new conceptual model of zonally varying, vs. zonally uniform, polar descent in the MLT.

The migrating diurnal tide (DW1) is one of the dominant wave motions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. It plays a crucial role in neutral atmosphere and ionosphere coupling. The DW1 can vary over a range of time scales from days to years. While the long‐term variability of the DW1 is mainly attributed to the source and background atmosphere variability, the driving mechanism of short‐term DW1 variability is still openly debated. Herein the daily structure of the DW1 is extracted from observations using a novel multi‐satellite estimation technique and compared with model simulations (NOGAPS‐ALPHA and WACCM‐X). Both the observations and the models show that the day‐to‐day variability of the DW1 is a persistent and ubiquitous feature. The standard deviation peak of DW1 amplitudes, which is used to measure the maximum variability, is generally aligned with the DW1 amplitude peak. This result indicates that the day‐to‐day variability of the DW1 reflects global‐scale changes rather than local excitation of diurnal oscillation. The spatial lag‐correlation analysis of the diurnal (1,1) and (1,2) Hough modes suggests that the day‐to‐day variability of the diurnal (1,1) Hough mode is likely driven by variability in the lower atmosphere and the source of day‐to‐day variability of the (1,2) mode is uncertain. The significant correlation of the DW1 day‐to‐day variability between the NOGAPS‐ALPHA and the multi‐satellite estimation techniques also indicates that the model is capable of reproducing the DW1 structure on a daily basis.