This paper analyses ex-ante and ex-post competitive balance in Major League Soccer (MLS) based on compiled data from 1996 to 2016. Considering ex-post results and ex-ante information using betting odds allows investigating the development of both dimensions of competitive balance. While the results of the ex-post competitive balance measurements indicate a league that becomes more balanced over time, the ex-ante results suggest a tendency towards imbalance with reduced uncertainty of game outcomes. The findings will help MLS officials to draw conclusions to support decision-making around expansion activities or necessary regulations based on the ex-ante and ex-post balance or imbalance.
This study investigates the determinants of voluntary and involuntary head coach turnovers using a large dataset of some 6,500 coach-game observations from Major League Soccer over 2004–2019. The duration analysis results show that team performance related to expected playoff qualification and performance expectations matter for both types of separations. Moreover, the findings reveal that coach reputation decreases dismissal probabilities, while coach age increases quit rates. The results of this study will be of particular interest to Major League Soccer team owners and managers as well as for business management outside the sports industry.
Using a large dataset with over 4,000 game-level observations from Major League Soccer over the period 2006 to 2019 we investigate the determinants of attendance demand. Focusing on franchise expansion and location effects, we find that some decisions made by the organization had positive impacts on league revenues. While going to cities with a large population and already hosting nearby NFL or NBA teams is positively associated with game attendance, the presence of geographically close MLB and NHL teams is detrimental to MLS revenues. Our results suggest a need for a more nuanced and selective approach to MLS expansion policy.
Based on the Calciopoli scandal, which uncovered widespread corruption in Italian football, this paper quantifies the effect of referee bias on the performance of football teams. The impartiality of referees is often distorted by external factors which exert some emotional pressure in order to influence their decisions. On the other hand, corrupt referees consciously and deliberately try to distort the results of the sport contest, in order to favor the corrupting teams. Building on the implications of a model where performance in a sport contest depends on both effort and bribing, our results highlight the different effects of these two forms of bias, and help to shed light on several aspects of the corruption scandal.