Under current conditions, strong sustainable socio-economic development of major metropolitan areas in separate regions and separate countries comparable to them in size is possible with the optimal management of a set of anti-epidemic measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. This chapter constructs the first numerical model of the quasi-periodic dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was created based on the innovative model of the Kondratiev waves developed by the authors in their previous works. The authors found a close approximation between the model and the actual data for the four waves of development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Moscow. It was also noted that this model applies to small countries close in population to Moscow when comparing the correlation and autocorrelation curves. The data calculated by the models indicate the possibility of the practical application of the developed model for metropolitan areas and small countries comparable to them in size and population. Additionally, the model showed the accuracy of the results for such large countries as Russia and the United States.
Purpose: Substantiation of the selection of the potential option of the implementation of quarantine measures and of the obtaining of evaluations of its potential economic consequences for Moscow on the basis of the use of instruments of the combined digital economic-epidemic model, developed by authors. Methods: In order to carry out the research the modified SIR-model was used as the basic epidemic one. As the economic growth model was used the model of probability of mixed economic systems, developed by authors. The consolidation of such models to its lowest terms allowed to form the combined digital economic-epidemic model. As basic ones were considered three potentially possible options for the implementation of quarantine measures. On the basis of the model, developed by authors, were developed feasibility studies for each of three options of quarantine measures. While carrying out calculations as initial terms was adopted the dynamics of the daily accrual of people, infected withCOVID-19 for the week between 01.04 and 08.04.2020. Result: On the basis of the combined digital economic-epidemic model were determined possible economic consequences at the implementation of basic options of quarantine measures, feasibility studies were provided, its scientific analysis has been performed with the substantiation of the development of one of considered options. As most optimal option of the implementation of quarantine measures B option was selected. Conclusion: The offered model and settlements, performed on its basis, can be applied in all regions of Russia in order to select the potential option of the implementation of quarantine measures and of the evaluation of possible economic consequences for each region. This is a universal model. With it can be studied events of all epidemiologic periods and world regions.
—Reforms in the Russian electricity power sector are entering the final stages. However, there are also unsatisfactory results of their implementation along with the positive ones such as the use of the mechanisms of the so-called " merit order pricing" (MOP) and "capacity adhesion contract" (CAC). These mechanisms are aimed at maintaining the operations of existing and construction of new non-competitive stations by increasing the supplied electricity price from its equilibrium market value. However, the use of these mechanisms creates a serious problem for the Russian economic development. If one considers these mechanisms in the power as a whole, then they contribute to the energy efficiency within the sector through supplied electricity price increase, and, at the same time, they significantly limit the opportunities for economic growth for other industries. This is due to the fact that the supplied electricity price hike entails the need to increase prices for their output. The increase in the supplied electricity price of even by 10% leads to the slowdown in economy. The article analyzes the marginal system of quasi-market pricing in the Russian power industry. A basic model of the activity of economic market participants in the context of digitalization has been developed on the basis of the previously constructed dynamic probabilistic model of economic systems. Its application has proven the negative impact of merit order pricing on the economic system. A better way of handling this and maintaining ineffective economic entities in the power industry, various methods of direct budgetary support while maintaining the market price for supplied electricity should be used instead of using quasi-market