The paper explores the financial contagion of the Russian stock market from the Chinese stock market during the global COVID-19 pandemic. Its objectives are to confirm or refute the contagion of these markets during the acute phase of the pandemic and establish the direction, intensity and types of contagion. The study employed average daily values of the RTSI (Moscow exchange) and HSI (Hong Kong stock exchange) indices. To distinguish between the period of exposure of the two countries’ assets to an external shock and the period of relatively calm markets, we calculated the moving normalized coefficients of variation. To test for the presence of contagion, we constructed vector autoregression (VAR) models for the logarithmic returns RTSI with an exogenous variable of the logarithmic returns HSI in the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods, estimated the coefficients for HSI and established their significance. The intensity of contagion was determined by the change in the contribution of the tested variable (HSI) to the variance of the dependent variable (RTSI) during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. The Granger causality test allowed us to establish the direction of contagion; the types of contagion were identified using the method of co-moments of return distribution. The study confirmed the existence of contagion from Chinese to Russian stock market during the acute phase of the pandemic and proved its directionality (HSI→RTSI), and the decomposition of the coefficient of determination established the intensity of the contagion. In the post-crisis period, market interdependence was observed, caused by incompleteness of the pandemic crisis and changes in contagion foci. Contagion during the crisis occurred in the form of an increase in the lower co-moments of distribution (the impact of HSI returns on RTSI returns, volatility and asymmetry) compared to the pre-crisis period, and manifested itself in the upper co-moments of distribution and market anomalies compared to the post-crisis period. The research results may assist in formulating policies aimed at maintaining financial stability; they will also be useful for investment portfolio optimization.
This paper investigates the transmission of financial contagion from the European to the Russian stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial contagion refers to the spread of instability and shocks across individual countries, sectors, or markets during a crisis, where the relationship between returns and volatility of different assets goes beyond normal interactions. Using the construction of extended autoregressive models, we test the contagion of the RTSI composite index from the EURO STOXX 50 index, with the US dollar exchange rate and the spot price of Urals crude oil serving as control variables. The calculation of the moving coefficient of variation in assets prices allows us to distinguish the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods, for which three separate autoregressive models are built. The contagion of the Russian stock market from the European stock market in these models is identified in two ways: 1) based on the growth and significance of estimated coefficient for the tested variable (STOXX 50 index return) during the crisis; 2) through an increase in the contribution of the tested variable to the explained variance of the dependent variable (RTSI return). In addition, we tested contagion based on the method of central co-moments of the distribution of returns, skewness and volatility of the tested and dependent variable. The analysis has convincingly demonstrated the existence of a financial contagion effect from the European stock market to the Russian stock market in the short term — strengthening of the impact of the European STOXX 50 index on the Russian RTSI index in the acute phase of the pandemic. Understanding the factors contributing to the spread of market shocks in the context of financial globalization can help policymakers to implement effective financial regulatory measures and maintain long-term financial stability in line with national interests. For investors, it helps to identify potential risks and opportunities, enabling optimal hedging and diversification response strategies.
The article examines the financial contagion of Russian companies during the pandemic COVID-19. Financial contagion refers to the strengthening of interconnections between segments of the financial market during a crisis, when turbulence from one market is transferred to others, and the relationship between parameters goes beyond normal market interactions. The study involved shares of 27 companies in the energy, financial, telecommunications, consumer and raw materials sectors of the Russian economy. As exogenous variables supposedly influencing the market values of these companies, we tested the rouble exchange rate against the US dollar, the spot price of Urals oil and the yield on annual government bonds (proxies for the cost of borrowings). Identification of the potential contagion period was based of the sliding coefficientof variation of these variables. The construction of VARX models convincingly proved the increasing influenceof the exchange rate and the bond yield rate on the fundamental (market) return of Russian companies in the short term (during the acute phase of the pandemic) and the delayed impact of oil prices on it, which manifested itself during the chronic crisis. Contagion testing was also carried out on the basis of a change (growth) in the coefficient of determination in the acute phase of the pandemic as compared to the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. For a more accurate assessment of the contribution of each variable to contagion, we used the method of source decomposition of the coefficient of determination with a correction for heteroscedasticity. This made it possible to identify the companies most vulnerable tofinancial contagion during the pandemic, and the sources of their contagion, as well as the market segments that showed the greatest resilience. The study can be useful for managers in maintaining their companies’ market value, for investors in effective portfolio diversification, and for public authorities when pursuing a policy of financial stabilization in a crisis. The limitations of the study are related to the imperfections of the VARX models method, as well as to the specifics of the pandemic crisis, the conclusions from which can only be partially applied to other types of crises.
В статье приводятся результаты проведенного авторами исследования состояния и тенденций развития криминальной ситуации, связанной с финансовым мошенничеством. Анализируется современное состояние и тенденции виктимизации граждан Российской Федерации от действий организаторов финансовых пирамид, нелегальных кредиторов и иных финансовых мошенников, похищающих денежные средства населения, привлеченные под видом вкладов и инвестиций. На основе проведенного анкетирования экспертов из числа сотрудников Банка России и прокурорских работников, а также опроса жертв финансового мошенничества определяются характерные особенности преступности данного вида. The article presents the results of the authors' study of the state and trends in the development of the criminal situation associated with financial fraud. The article analyzes the current state and the direction of victimization of citizens of the Russian Federation from the actions of the organizers of financial pyramids, illegal creditors and other financial fraudsters who steal the funds of the population attracted under the guise of deposits and investments. Based on a survey of experts from among the employees of the Bank of Russia and prosecutors, as well as a survey of victims of financial fraud, the characteristic features of this type of crime are determined.
The article deals with characteristic features of the financial behavior of student youth and factors affecting it. This paper is based on the results of the author's survey that was conducted in the fall of2020and covered 1242students from 17 universities in Russia. It examines the attitude of young people to saving, consumer, and investment behavior. The author sought to finds out whether the consumer preferences of young students are consistent with their financial capabilities, and whether young people are satisfied with realization of their life plans. He analyzes the sources of income of students and the sums which they consider as savings. The problems of financial dependence of the younger generation on the older ones are discussed in this article. The differences in the financial behavior of students financially dependent on parents and those leading an independent way of life are analyzed. The article presents results of the survey of students' financial behavior related both to preservation and accumulation of capital, and to general strategies of saving behavior—saving for purchasing goods, medical treatment and services, education, etc. There are considered financial instruments used or planned to be used by the respondents in case of saving large sums of money. The article shows the differences in investment behavior, in use of financial instruments between independent and financially dependent students. There are examined discrepancies between the consumer preferences and the financial capabilities of student youth. The conducted study allows drawing a conclusion about the influence of family and parents, their attitudes, and views on the financial decisions of students, which are not always rational.
The paper examines the factors influencing the financial socialization of Russian students. It provides an overview of research on the impact of family institutions (parental household), financial independence, and the maturity of financial behavior on the financial socialization of young people. We analyze the relationships between basic socio-demographic characteristics of Russian students (gender, age, marital status), their behavioral characteristics (risk preference, propensity for offense or unethical behavior, prodigality, credulity), and socio-economic characteristics (level of financial status, financial independence, financial maturity). The empirical part of the study is based on the data of the author's survey of 1291 students from 17 Russian universities, processed by methods of statistical, correlation, and econometric analysis. To assess the level of financial well-being, we develop an original methodology where the financial situation shows the availability of goods and services that are unaffordable to most members of this group. Likewise, financial maturity is the students' proficiency in financial instruments poorly mastered by the majority of other respondents. The survey revealed a significant financial dependence of Russian students on their parents and their low level of financial maturity. We found an increased level of credulity and a low level of propensity for offense or unethical behavior; established positive correlation between the risk preference and the propensity for offense or unethical behavior, between the level of credulity and prodigality. We established that as financial dependence on parents gradually decreases, young people make more mature financial decisions, and their growing risk preference is replaced by a shift to more prudent financial practices. In groups where young people provide for themselves, their assessments of their financial situation rise sharply from a certain point, and the level of prodigality decreases. The constructed model of ordered logit regression showed a significant positive effect of age, marital and employment status, risk preference and level of financial maturity, as well as a significant negative effect of prodigality and credulity on financial independence of Russian students. The research results are applicable for the further development of theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of effective financial behavior of young people and the management of student financial socialization processes.
The article is devoted to the analysis of the impact of young people's personal characteristics, such as financial literacy, level of optimism, risk appetite, propensity for innovation, credulity, extravagance, and propensity for illegal actions, on their likely financial behavior. The study was based on the results of an in-depth interview with 10 representatives of the young people of Nizhny Novgorod and a survey of 420 students learning economics at Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod. We employed SPSS and applied the methods of correlation regression analysis and cluster analysis to process the survey results. The paper presents an extensive review of studies on the relationship between financial behavior and financial literacy, as well as the psychological characteristics of an individual. The in-depth interview revealed the peculiarities of young people's understanding of success in the financial market and the personal characteristics ensuring it (literacy, rationality, activity, risk preference, moderate credulity). A sociological survey allowed data on the intensity of various characteristics among respondents and their variation. For the entire sample of students, we revealed a close positive correlation between the level of optimism, risk preference, and propensity for illegal actions. Using the Ward method, we divided the sample of students into three clusters, which differ in both the set of characteristics and the direction and intensity of the interrelationship between them. Directions relating to the formation of effective financial behavior were identified for each cluster of students. For the 1st cluster, it is recommended to enhance the level of basic knowledge in order to prevent any chance of falling victim to dubious schemes and losing money. For the 2nd cluster, it is necessary to focus on resistance management and enhancing the level of trust and activity. In the 3rd cluster, which includes the most literate students, it is important to prevent the undesirable relationship between risk appetite and informal actions. The results of the study may be applicable in the further development of methodological approaches to assessing the relationship between financial literacy and other personal characteristics of people, as well as the influence of these factors on their financial behavior. They can also be employed for different kinds of awareness-raising and educational work intended to develop the skills of efficient financial behavior of young people.
Изучается взаимосвязь финансовой грамотности в сфере использования цифровых технологий и личностных характеристик российских студентов с акцентом на гендерный аспект проблемы.Исследование проведено на основе данных опроса студентов экономических специальностей ННГУ.Обнаружен в среднем более низкий уровень финансовой грамотности у девушек по сравнению с юношами, а также разное гендерное распределение таких характеристик, имеющих отношение к поведению в финансовой сфере, как доверчивость, расточительность, склонность к риску
The research is aimed at analyzing influence of various personal characteristics of young students along with financial literacy on their expected financial behavior. Besides financial literacy, we singled out such personal characteristics as prodigality, credulity, risk preference and propensity for offence or unethical behavior. Our research is based on the data obtained by sample questionnaire survey of full-time students learning economics at Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorord, Russia. For evaluation of each personal characteristic we asked respondents to answer twelve direct and indirect questions, which enabled us to both outline distribution of the estimated features among students and calculate their average values. For the whole sample we found medium positive correlation between prodigality, risk preference and propensity for offence or unethical behavior, while other pairs demonstrated weak correlations. Further clustering of the whole sample into six approximately equal groups with use of the Ward's method allowed us to receive more pronounced dependencies between characteristics within these groups, albeit different by sign. We found out that combining various characteristics with different level of financial literacy ensured quite opposite types of expected financial behavior. This emphasizes the role of personality development as a complex task even more important for students just entering the financial market.