Top-down population modelling has gained applied prominence in public health, planning, and sustainability applications at the global scale. These top-down population modelling methods often rely on remote-sensing (RS) derived representation of the built-environment and settlements as key predictive covariates. While these RS-derived data, which are global in extent, have become more advanced and more available, gaps in spatial and temporal coverage remain. These gaps have prompted the interpolation of the built-environment and settlements, but the utility of such interpolated data in further population modelling applications has garnered little research. Thus, our objective was to determine the utility of modelled built-settlement extents in a top-down population modelling application. Here we take modelled global built-settlement extents between 2000 and 2012, created using a spatio-temporal disaggregation of observed settlement growth. We then demonstrate the applied utility of such annually modelled settlement data within the application of annually modelling population, using random forest informed dasymetric disaggregations, across 172 countries and a 13-year period. We demonstrate that the modelled built-settlement data are consistently the 2nd most important covariate in predicting population density, behind annual lights at night, across the globe and across the study period. Further, we demonstrate that this modelled built-settlement data often provides more information than current annually available RS-derived data and last observed built-settlement extents.

Mapping settlement extents at the annual time step has a wide variety of applications in demography, public health, sustainable development, and many other fields. Recently, while more multitemporal urban feature or human settlement datasets have become available, issues still exist in remotely-sensed imagery due to coverage, adverse atmospheric conditions, and expenses involved in producing such feature sets. These challenges make it difficult to increase temporal coverage while maintaining high fidelity in the spatial resolution. Here we demonstrate an interpolative and flexible modeling framework for producing annual built-settlement extents. We use a combined technique of random forest and spatio-temporal dasymetric modeling with open source subnational data to produce annual 100m x 100m resolution binary settlement maps in four test countries of varying environmental and developmental contexts for test periods of five-year gaps. We find that in the majority of years, across all study areas, the model correctly identified between 85-99% of pixels that transition to built-settlement. Additionally, with few exceptions, the model substantially out performed a model that gave every pixel equal chance of transitioning to the category “built” in each year. This modelling framework shows strong promise for filling gaps in cross-sectional urban feature datasets derived from remotely-sensed imagery, provide a base upon which to create future built/settlement extent projections, and further explore the relationships between built area and population dynamics.

There has been a growing interest across the British conservation community in recent years in establishing conservation over large areas. Much of this thinking was crystallised in the Making Space for Nature report (Lawton and others 2010) , and has since become prominent in conservation policy. To maximise the success of future projects, there is a need to get a better overview of the many large-scale conservation (LSC) initiatives that already exist, and to investigate what can be learned from past experience. To date there has been no thorough study of the scope, spatial extent, management and planning approaches and effectiveness of LSC. This report summarises the results of a research study that provides the first comprehensive review of large-scale conservation initiatives in England, Scotland and Wales. The study was made up of a series of linked research projects with funding and support from Defra, Natural England, Scottish Natural Heritage and Natural Resources Wales and was carried out by the University of Southampton, University of Cambridge, Natural England and Atkins.

Protected areas (PAs) are vital for conserving biodiversity, but many PA networks consist of fragmented habitat patches that poorly represent species and ecosystems. One possible solution is to create conservation landscapes that surround and link these PAs. This often involves working with a range of landowners and agencies to develop large-scale conservation initiatives (LSCIs). These initiatives are being championed by both government and civil society, but we lack data on whether such landscape-level approaches overcome the limitations of more traditional PA networks. Here we expand on a previous gap analysis of England to explore to what extent LSCIs improve the representation of different ecoregions, land-cover types and elevation zones compared to the current PA system. Our results show the traditional PA system covers 6.37% of England, an addition of only 0.07% since 2001, and that it is an ecologically unrepresentative network that mostly protects agriculturally unproductive land. Including LSCIs in the analysis increases the land for conservation more than tenfold and reduces these representation biases. However, only 24% of land within LSCIs is currently under conservation management, mostly funded through agri-environment schemes, and limited monitoring data mean that their contribution to conservation objectives is unclear. There is also a considerable spatial overlap between LSCIs, which are managed by different organisations with different conservation objectives. Our analysis is the first to show how Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs) can increase the representativeness of conservation area networks, and highlights opportunities for increased collaboration between conservation organisations and engagement with landowners.

Despite a growing body of research linking bioenergy cultivation to changing patterns of biodiversity, there has been remarkably little interest in how bioenergy plantations affect key ecosystem processes underpinning important ecosystem services. In this study, we compare how the processes of predation by ground arthropods and litter decomposition varied between Short Rotation Coppice ( SRC ) willow bioenergy plantations and alternative land‐uses: arable and set‐aside (agricultural land taken out of production). We deployed litter bags to measure variation in decomposition, and a prey removal assay coupled with pitfall traps and direct searches to investigate variation in predation pressure. Decomposition rate was higher in willow SRC and set‐aside than in cereal crops. Willow SRC had the highest abundance and diversity of ground‐dwelling arthropod predators, but land‐use had no detectable influence on predation of fly pupae or the combined activity‐density of the two principal Coleoptera families (carabids and staphylinids). Overall, our study demonstrates that the conversion of arable land to SRC may have implications for the rate of some, but not all, ecosystem processes, and highlights the need for further research in this area.

The cultivation of bioenergy crops (BECs) represents a significant land-use change in agri-environments, but their deployment has raised important issues globally regarding possible impacts on biodiversity. Few studies however, have systematically examined the effect of commercial scale bioenergy plantations on biodiversity in agri-ecosystems. In this study we investigate how the abundance and diversity of two key components of farmland biodiversity (ground flora and winged invertebrates) varied between mature willow Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) and two alternative land-use options (arable crops and set-aside land). Although the abundance of winged invertebrates was similar across all land-uses, taxonomic composition varied markedly. Hymenoptera and large Hemiptera (>5 mm) were more abundant in willow SRC than in arable or set-aside. Similarly although plant species richness was greater in set-aside, our data show that willow SRC supports a different plant community to the other land-uses, being dominated by competitive perennial species such as Elytrigia repens and Urtica dioica. Our results suggest that under current management practices a mixed farming system incorporating willow SRC can benefit native farm-scale biodiversity. In particular the reduced disturbance in willow SRC allows the persistence of perennial plant species, potentially providing a stable refuge and food sources for invertebrates. In addition, increased Hymenoptera abundance in willow SRC could potentially have concomitant effects on ecosystem processes, as many members of this Order are important pollinators of crop plants or otherwise fulfil an important beneficial role as predators or parasites of crop pests. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Background This work explores the potential contribution of bioenergy technologies to 60% and 80% carbon reductions in the UK energy system by 2050, by outlining the potential for accelerated technological development of bioenergy chains. The investigation was based on insights from MARKAL modelling, detailed literature reviews and expert consultations. Due to the number and complexity of bioenergy pathways and technologies in the model, three chains and two underpinning technologies were selected for detailed investigation: (1) lignocellulosic hydrolysis for the production of bioethanol, (2) gasification technologies for heat and power, (3) fast pyrolysis of biomass for bio-oil production, (4) biotechnological advances for second generation bioenergy crops, and (5) the development of agro-machinery for growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. Detailed literature searches and expert consultations (looking inter alia at research and development needs and economic projections) led to the development of an 'accelerated' dataset of modelling parameters for each of the selected bioenergy pathways, which were included in five different scenario runs with UK-MARKAL (MED). The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core) scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector. Results Bioenergy was deployed in larger quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with the LC-Core scenario. In the electricity sector, solid biomass was highly utilised for energy crop gasification, displacing some deployment of wind power, and nuclear and marine to a lesser extent. Solid biomass was also deployed for heat in the residential sector from 2040 in much higher quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with LC-Core. Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario due to a reduction in ethanol produced from wheat. Conclusion There is much potential for future deployment of bioenergy technologies to decarbonise the energy sector. However, future deployment is dependent on many different factors including investment and efforts towards research and development needs, carbon reduction targets and the ability to compete with other low carbon technologies as they become deployed. All bioenergy technologies should become increasingly more economically competitive with fossil-based technologies as feedstock costs and flexibility are reduced in line with technological advances.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

Powerline corridors through forested ecosystems have been criticised due their potential to fragment the landscape and facilitate the intrusion of undesirable species into natural areas. This study investigates the effects of vegetation management (slashing), on: (1) timing of small mammal recolonisation; (2) vegetation characteristics that drive small mammal responses; and (3) the point where corridor resources are sufficient to provide functional habitat for native species. Small mammal trapping was undertaken within Bunyip State Park, Australia, across three sites, once a month from January 2001 to May 2002 and every 2 months thereafter until January 2004. Changes in vegetation around each trap station were assessed annually in the forest and bi-annually in the corridor. Principal components analysis on the vegetation structural complexity values produced factors for use in species abundance models. Native small mammal species recolonised the corridor 1.5–3.5 years after management and the corridor supported a breeding population of small mammals around 2.5 years post-management. Males however, generally recolonised the corridor first, resulting in a sex-biased population in these areas. Species corridor habitat models for five native and one introduced species suggested cover and shelter were more important in determining corridor use than plant species per se. Powerline corridors have the potential to create a mixture of different successional stages, enhancing habitat availability for many species. However, the intensity of current management needs to be reduced and an integrated approach to management needs to be undertaken if powerline corridors are to continuously provide habitat for native small mammal species.

Within Australia, very little attention has been given to the potential biodiversity benefits of power line easements, if ecologically sensitive management regimes are developed. This study examined the potential power line easements may have for the conservation of small mammals, and in particular the near threatened, Broad-toothed Rat Mastacomys fuscus, in Australia. Easement vegetation was found to support a diverse small mammal community, including M. fuscus if the vegetation was allowed to develop some structural complexity. M. fuscus was one of the first species to recolonize the easement habitat, provided that the areas had regenerated to a sufficient level. Results suggests; however, that the current management technique used, where the entire easement is managed at one time via mass slashing, on short rotation times, is most likely limiting M. fuscus to low abundances, and causing isolation of the current M. fuscus populations. To ensure that power line easements supply functional, usable habitat for small mammals and other species and to minimize their potential to fragment small mammal populations, it is recommended that current management techniques be reassessed. In an effort to develop more appropriate management regimes, it was recommended that rotation times be increased between management, that mass slashing of the easement at one time be reassessed, especially in naturally low growing areas and that rotational type slashing be implemented. Other techniques such as spot spraying, may be all that is needed within some areas to control emergent saplings. This study highlights that potential biodiversity values do exist for Australian power line easements, if some changes occur to the current management practices.

Powerline corridor management in Australia has traditionally focused on the complete removal of vegetation using short rotation times due to the perceived fire hazard associated with corridor vegetation. This study assessed vegetation recovery in a powerline corridor, following management, at three sites spanning corridor and forest habitat. Forest and corridor vegetation communities differed significantly between sites and over time. As vegetation recovered, the corridor community became a mix of plants common in the surrounding forest and open areas, changing within the 3-year study from a grass–fern to shrub–sedge community encroached by midstorey species. The current short rotations between management events unnecessarily maintain the corridor in a cycle of degradation, remove resources for native species and may allow introduced grasses and saplings to proliferate in the corridor. Maintaining a shrub layer would help avoid loss of species richness, encourage native species and limit colonisation opportunities of introduced species. Spot spraying emergent saplings and problem plants and mosaic slashing, would keep fire risk low and maintain biodiversity without increasing biomass to dangerous levels.

Management of powerline corridors in Australia has traditionally focused on the complete removal of vegetation using short rotation times owing to the perceived hazard of fire associated with corridor vegetation. Because of the intense management associated with fire hazards, little thought has been given to use of powerline corridors by wildlife. This has resulted in corridors traditionally being viewed as a source of fragmentation and habitat loss within forested ecosystems. We investigated the responses of small mammal communities living in a powerline corridor to management-induced vegetation changes at different successional stages, to determine whether a compromise could be reached between managing corridors for fire and biodiversity. Habitat modelling in the corridor and adjacent forest for three native and one introduced small mammal species demonstrated that species responded to changes in vegetation structural complexity, rather than time-since-management per se. Early seral stages of vegetation recovery after corridor management encouraged the introduced house mouse (Mus domesticus) into corridors and contributed little to biodiversity. Mid-seral-stage vegetation, however, provided habitat for native species that were rare in adjacent forest habitats. As the structural complexity of the vegetation increased, the small mammal community became similar to that of the forest so that corridor vegetation contributed fewer biodiversity benefits while posing an unacceptable fire risk. If ecologically sensitive management regimes are implemented to encourage mid-seral vegetation and avoid complete vegetation removal, powerline corridors have the potential to improve biodiversity. This would maintain landscape connectivity and provide habitat for native species uncommon in the forest while still limiting fuel loads in the corridor.