Privacy concerns often arise as the key bottleneck for the sharing of data between consumers and data holders, particularly for sensitive data such as Electronic Health Records (EHR). This impedes the application of data analytics and ML-based innovations with tremendous potential. One promising approach for such privacy concerns is to instead use synthetic data. We propose a generative modeling framework, EHR-Safe, for generating highly realistic and privacy-preserving synthetic EHR data. EHR-Safe is based on a two-stage model that consists of sequential encoder-decoder networks and generative adversarial networks. Our innovations focus on the key challenging aspects of real-world EHR data: heterogeneity, sparsity, coexistence of numerical and categorical features with distinct characteristics, and time-varying features with highly-varying sequence lengths. Under numerous evaluations, we demonstrate that the fidelity of EHR-Safe is almost-identical with real data (<3% accuracy difference for the models trained on them) while yielding almost-ideal performance in practical privacy metrics.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Transformer models have achieved great success across many NLP problems. However, previous studies in automated ICD coding concluded that these models fail to outperform some of the earlier solutions such as CNN-based models. In this paper we challenge this conclusion. We present a simple and scalable method to process long text with the existing transformer models such as BERT. We show that this method significantly improves the previous results reported for transformer models in ICD coding, and is able to outperform one of the prominent CNN-based methods.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases, and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks. We present an international, prospective evaluation of our models' performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. Nationally, incident mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths during prospective deployment remained consistently <8% (US) and <29% (Japan), while cumulative MAPE remained <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and are robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.

We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling (e.g., SEIR) to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses interpretable encoders to incorporate covariates and improve performance. Explainability is valuable to ensure that the model's forecasts are credible to epidemiologists and to instill confidence in end-users such as policy makers and healthcare institutions. Our model can be applied at different geographic resolutions, and we demonstrate it for states and counties in the United States. We show that our model provides more accurate forecasts compared to the alternatives, and that it provides qualitatively meaningful explanatory insights.

As discussed, vast numbers of candidate datasets exist that could be related to the problem of COVID19 forecasting. However, these datasets cannot be used indiscriminately. We select data sources based on whether they could have a predictive signal for the disease outcomes. Selecting multiple datasets from the same class of causes can obfuscate their predictive power. Therefore, we select datasets, one each from the classes of econometrics, demographics, mobility, non-pharmaceutical interventions, hospital resource availability, historical air quality. From each of these datasets, we further select covariates that could have an impact on the model compartments. We allow covariates to influence only those compartments (and hence transition rates) on which we posit that there exists a causal relationship (Table 1).