На основании измерений параметров ионосферной плазмы, выполненных с помощью спутника «Космос-1809», а также данных наземных станций сейсмического контроля и центров предупреждения тайфунов показана тесная взаимосвязь между возникновением сильных литосферных землетрясений и зарождением, развитием и интенсификацией тропических циклонов (ТЦ).На примере ТЦ «Гарри» (1989) подробно рассмотрено изменение географии и глубины сильных землетрясений при прохождении ТЦ о.Новая Каледония.Предложены два спусковых механизма воздействия тропических циклонов на литосферные землетрясения.Показано, что акустическое воздействие землетрясений и подземных ядерных взрывов в сентябре 1992 г. на тропические возмущения вызвало развитие цепочки из 11 ТЦ.Для объяснения взаимных корреляционных связей аномальных параметров ионосферы с мощными источниками воздействия на атмосферу рассмотрены упрощённые физические модели.На основании полученных результатов делается вывод, что достоверный и предсказательный

In this article, we describe a method for predicting of the epicenter location region of Kamchatka and Commander earthquakes (EQs). It is based on the properties of the precursory atmospheric ULF/ELF (1–30 Hz) radiation and the spatial statistics of local EQs in relation to the Kuril-Kamchatka and Aleutian trenches. From this statistics, it follows that more than 90% of events with magnitude (ML) of more than 5 occur in the gap ~ 150 km west of the Kuril-Kamchatka trench and north-east of the Aleutian trench. Additionally, we obtain the approximate location of the epicenter by determining the position of the radiation source. We suppose that it is caused by gas eruption from the hearth of the EQ to the trench and has the nearest location to the EQ epicenter. Further, we obtain other parameters of supposed position of the epicenter from spatial statistics of EQs relative to the projection of radiation source, which approximately coincides with gas emanation area in the ocean surface. The main drawbacks of the method are the dependence of its accuracy on the industrial interferences and the ambiguity of determining the epicenter location in the case of single-point registration of radiation when the main lobe of the azimuthal distribution of radiation crosses both trenches.

This paper is devoted to a method of short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction in Kamchatka, Russia. Properties of low-frequency magnetic fields are the basics of the method, and we used two seismo-electromagnetic phenomena in the EQ prediction: 1. seismo-ionospheric depression in the frequency range of 0.01–0.1 Hz (ULF depression), 2. seismo-atmospheric radiation in the frequency range of 1–30 Hz (ULF/ELF radiation). It is now generally accepted that gas eruption before an EQ causes these ULF/ELF phenomena. We propose a hypothesis that gas emanates from the area in the bottom of Kuril–Kamchatka or Aleutian trenches closest to the epicenter of a forthcoming EQ. The three parameters of an EQ are (i) when (time), (ii) where (position) a next EQ is coming with (iii) how big (magnitude) in the short-term EQ prediction. Position of the source of atmospheric radiation gives an estimate of the epicenter location. Then, we estimate the local magnitude in consequence of its statistical dependence on ULF depression and epicenter distance. Date of a coming EQ is determined by the statistical dependence of delays of EQs relative to the dates of their precursors. The result of application of this method to real magnetic field data is illustrated by official prediction processes during a period of March–May 2016. Limits and possible errors of the method as well as methods to enhance the reliability of the prediction are discussed.

EarlierbytheauthorsaccordingtotheIntercosmo sBulgaria�1300andCosmos�1809satellitedatait's been shownthattheionosphereismodifiedabovethetro picalcyclones(TC).Localperturbationsofthepla smadensity,the appearanceoftheelectricfieldsandthedevelopme ntofELFVLFzoneofturbulencewereobserved.The duetotheinjectionofupstreamofneutralpartic lesfromTC.InthispaperthedataoftheCosmos�1 809satellitewhen tropicalcycloneHarry(1989)passedthroughtheis landofNewCaledoniawasexamined.Influenceofev eningandmorning terminatorsonthestructureoftheionospherefrom TCwasdiscussed.Itisdetected:1�theappearan ceoflatitudebelt (up to 5000km) of structured perturbations in the n ight ionosphere; 2 � simulation in the illuminated ionosphere of periodicoscillationoftheelectricfieldwithas cale~400km,passingbeyondplasmapause.Modelf ortheformation aboveTCinthelowerionosphereverticalsubmerged jetthatinjectsneutralparticlesofdifferentva rietiesintotheupper ionosphereonballistictrajectorieswasproposed. Changingoftheionizationofneutralparticlesnea rtheterminatorand thedeviationofthejetundertheinteractionoft heTCwiththeislandareconfirmedintheproposed model. ©2015BBSCSRNSWS.Allrightsreserved

The ionospheric parameters were analyzed, which made it possible to distinguish several successive stages in the development of isolated tropical cyclones (TCs). Data were taken from the Cosmos-1809 and Intercosmos Bulgaria-1300 satellites, which passed over several dozen TCs. The first stage of TC development consists of a sharp increase in altitudinal substorm activity caused by a tropical disturbance and depression. During this stage, plasma density caverns extending over several hundreds of kilometers are observed in the nighttime upper ionosphere a day before the formation of a tropical storm or even a category-I hurricane. The second stage, typical of TCs with intensities reaching categories I and II, is the displacement of a wide plasma density maximum in the upper ionosphere from the geomagnetic equator into the region, the center of which along the geomagnetic field line is projected to 200–230 km altitudes at a TC latitude. The third stage, which is typical of TC categories III–V, consists of the formation of an additional Ne peak (with a width reaching 1000 km) near the TC zenith. This peak includes ΔNe disturbances and is accompanied by electrostatic oscillations at the H+ and He+ cyclotron frequencies and at the lower hybrid resonance frequency and by electric fields that are projected into the magnetically conjugate region. The crossing of New Caledonia by the category-IV TC Harry was considered in detail. It was shown that the neutral particle ascending jet probably deviated along the meridian in this case.

The results of the observations of density, temperature, pressure of plasma, electrical fields and low-frequency fluctuations were obtained on both Cosmos-1809 and Intercosmos-Bulgaria-1300 satellites. The complex analysis of the results of observations showed the appearance of electrical fields and intensive low-frequency fluctuations, the reaction of electron density, temperature, pressure of plasma at the height of approximately 900 km above the regions of appearance and development of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. The cases of simultaneous observations of several cyclones, which sharply changed their direction of motion are considered. At the same time over half of the cyclones identical plasma solutions were found. These structures have a core, where the oscillations of the density reach 10% and have a transverse scale of 10 km, and the periphery with smaller amplitudes and stretched density oscillations. These density holes filled with the electrostatic turbulence at the frequency of helium. The results obtained suggest that the different stages of development of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones and the formation of individual structural formations of the ionosphere are related dynamic processes

The measurements on board the Cosmos-1809 satellite of various parameters of the topside ionosphere plasma during more than ten typhoons in various regions are analyzed. It is shown that specific zones of increased pressure of the electron gas, electric field, and intense ion oscillations are formed during the intensification stage. In some cases the "typhoon eye" is formed over the tropical depression zone in the ionosphere, that is, the region with sharply decreased plasma density and pressure is observed a day and more prior to the moment when it happens in the atmosphere.

A relation between parameters of preseismic ULF/ELF emissions and EQ is studied. The magnetic data measured at Karymshino station (Kamchatka, Russia) along with data on local seismic activity during eight years of observations (2001–2008) are taken for the analysis. Source azimuth is detected in different techniques, based on the analysis of the total field and its polarized pulsed component. The latter technique shows a better accuracy in the source azimuth detection. The errors of the method are associated with existence of non-seismic sources and with use of one-point observation. The second error can be eliminated by development of multi-point observations.

Local variations of the magnetic field in the ULF‐ELF frequency range associated with seismicity are studied with the data of more than 3 a observations at Karimshimo complex observatory (latitude 52.83°N, longitude 158.13°E, Kamchatka, Russia). A wideband emission is found to start about 5 d before an earthquake and last until 5 d after it. Seismic ULF/ELF emission in the frequency range of 4–6 Hz as compared with the seismically quiet background has enhanced Phh/Pdd spectral ratio and reduced standard deviation of ellipse orientation angle and the ellipticity, and it has a more linear polarization. Parameters of this emission are studied for more than 30 individual earthquakes and statistically with the superposed epoch method. The reliability of the earthquake predicting hypothesis is verified, and the favorable parameters for the earthquakes together with those for ELF magnetic field are selected. The following earthquake parameters are favorable for this emission: depths H < 50 km, magnitudes MS > 5.5, and epicenter distances R < 300 km. The changes of natural ULF/ELF emissions during the periods of enhanced seismic activity are interpreted as the result of the excitation of additional ULF/ELF emissions in the seismic zone to the east of the observatory or the redistribution of lightning discharges with their possible concentration near the active crust fault. The earthquake prediction hypothesis is verified for the complex field parameter ΔS and proved to be successful.

Spectral and polarization parameters of the natural ULF/ELF signal in a seismic region (Kamchatka, Russia) are statistically analyzed and a meaningful change in the signal polarization is found to occur several days prior powerful earthquakes (EQ). This effect can be caused by an extended thunderstorm activity in the EQ preparation zone due to either aerosol and gas emissions by an active fault or by the modification of the ionosphere by the preseismic AGW waves. -1 pT/ Hz and conversion function 0.4*F V/(nT*Hz) in the frequency band F=0.003 - 4 Hz and 1.6 V/nT in the band F= 4 - 40 Hz. The sensors for the horizontal components H and D are oriented along the magnetic meridian and transversally to it, and the Z sensor is vertical. Routine data processing includes correction of non-physical data and data gaps, filtration and decimation to the 50 Hz frequency, and calculation of power spectral densities (PSD) of the field components, and the cross- spectra of the horizontal components, with the frequency resolution ~0.2 Hz and time window 30 min. The parameters of the polarization ellipse are calculated following (Born and Wolf, 1964). The orientation angle θ is the angle that the principle axis of polarization ellipse makes with the H axis. The absolute value of the ellipticity (tan(β)) is the ratio of minor to major axis and its sign is determined by the sense of polarization, i.e. β >0 or β<0 as the polarization is right- or left-handed as measured when looking into the propagation wave. Small absolute values of averaged ellipticity do not necessarily correspond to the linear polarization if the dispersion is high. To analyze the degree of signal's linearity a parameter /1 R ab

We study preseismic behavior of the ULF geomagnetic variations at Karymshino (E158.13, N52.83), Russia, and Matsukawa (E140.94, N39.88), Japan. A depression of ULF power around local midnight is registered several days before strong isolated earthquakes. The relative depression, i.e. δD=(1G-〈1G〉)/〈1G〉 has been analyzed, where the absolute depression is defined as a sum of inversed values of spectral power densities of horizontal components (where 1G=1/Phh and Pdd are the mean spectral densities of H and D components) in a sliding window ±(10–15) days. At Karymshino the most evident effect is found 3 days before an earthquake for the 0.5 h vicinity of local midnight in the frequency range 0.02–0.05 Hz. The data from Matsukawa are used to estimate the spatial scale of the effect and its local nature has been confirmed. Furthermore there is a definite correlation between the depression value and index of seismic activity. Thus, the analysis supports a hypothesis on seismic origin of the observed ULF geomagnetic field depression preceding an earthquake.

Detailed analysis is performed of the spectra of natural electromagnetic field in the frequency band of Schumann resonance (SR) during the strongest solar proton events (SPE) from 2000 to 2003. The decline of the peak resonance frequencies associated with SPE was confirmed by simultaneous observations at two globally separated observatories (Karelia and Kamchatka). Effects are substantially different when observed in various field components. The anomalous excursions of the peak resonance frequencies are explained in the framework of propagation theory of ELF radio waves. These changes originate owing to polar non-uniformities in the lower ionosphere.

The results of two-year monitoring of the Schumann-resonance signals are processed and the diurnal and seasonal variations in the activity of the global thunderstorm centers are estimated. We calculate the field in the model of thunderstorm activity localized in a small circular area (the model of a single source). Comparison between the experimental and model data allowed us to find the position of the maximum of the global thunderstorm activity. It is shown that a more exact interpretation of the experimental data is achieved if additional background radiation, which remains approximately constant during a day and is approximately equal to the intensity of a compact source, is included into the model.

We present the results of ULF magnetic field observation at Karimshino station (Kamchatka, Russia). Using a case study we discovered an effect of suppression of ULF intensity about 2-6 days before rather strong and iso- lated seismic shocks (magnitude M = 4.6-6.6). It is revealed for nighttime and the horizontal component of ULF field (G) in the frequency range 0.01-0.1 Hz. Then we prove the reliability of the effect by computed correlation between G (or 1/G) and especially calculated seismic indexes Ks for the rather long period of observation from June 2000 to November 2001. Our recent data confirm the validity of the effect. We show here a similar result during a period of frequent strong seismic activity in April-May 2002. It is highly probable that the effect ob- served is connected with the increase in plasma density perturbations inside the ionosphere, which are induced by preseismic water and gas release at the ground surface and following energy transportation into the iono- sphere by atmospheric gravity waves. Two models are discussed and computed: the first is a decrease of pene- tration coefficient of Alfven waves from the magnetosphere due to a turbulent increase in effective Pedersen conductivity in the ionosphere, and the second is a change in wave number (k) distribution of source ionospher- ic turbulence. One of the mechanisms or both could be responsible for the observed 2-3 times suppression of ULF magnetic field noise at the ground.

For the first time magnetic measurements of the industrial noises in the ultra low frequency (ULF) range (0.1-10 Hz) have been conducted at several locations in the center of Moscow, its suburbs and near countryside. The natural electromagnetic background at these frequencies includes geomagnetic oscillations of Pc1 type (f~0.5-2 Hz) and the first mode (~8 Hz) of Schuman resonance of the Earth-ionosphere cavity. The ULF range is the most important from biological point of view because its lower part coincides with the principal frequency of human heartthrob (f~0.5- 1.0 Hz), and its higher part corresponds to the brain α-rhythm. There are many papers which report on significant effects of strong (H>1.5 nT) magnetic field oscillations at these frequencies in peculiar reactions of living organisms and the man. It is found that in the center of Moscow the level of technological magnetic fields at frequencies ~0.5 Hz reaches 250-300 nT. That is three orders of magnitude higher than Pc1 geomagnetic pulsation maximum amplitude. The magnetic noise at 8 Hz in the center of Moscow is about 1 nT, which exceeds the natural oscillations at this frequency by ∼ two orders of magnitude. The magnetic noises in Moscow suburbs as well as in the industrial parts of Podolsk town are 10 to 15 times weaker. A very high intensity of technogenic ULF magnetic fields in the megalopolis arouses concern about their possible hazardous effects on health of inhabitants and stimulates deployment of extensive research programs in this area.

Some results of ULF magnetic field observation at Karimshino site (Kamchatka, Russia) since June 2000 to September 2001 are presented here. Using case study we have found an effect of suppression of ULF intensity about 2–6 days before rather strong and nearby seismic shocks (magnitude M = 4.0 – 6.2). It is revealed for nighttime and horizontal component of ULF field (G) in the frequency range 0.01 – 0.1 Hz. Then we prove the reliability of the effect by computed correlation between G (or 1/G) and specially calculated seismic indexes Ks for the whole period of observation. Basing on the simple criteria we conclude that reliability of seismo-associated ULF suppression effect is comparable with well-known effect of connection between ULF variation and Kp index of global magnetic activity. It seems the reason of suppression is located at the atmosphere or ionosphere but not in the ground medium.