Observations and model computations are compared of the Umov – Poynting vector (UPV) in the Schumann resonance (SR) band during the eruption of Tonga volcano on Jan. 15, 2022. The volcanogenic SR signals were recorded at the dual site: at the Cumiana observatory (44.96° N and 7.42° E) in the vertical electric field component and at the Sos Enattosobservatory (40.47° N, 9.48° E) in the two orthogonal ELF components of horizontal magnetic field. Initially, we present computations in the update model of the Earth – ionosphere cavity with the global lightning stroke distribution found by the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), which demonstrates the workability of our approach. The hodographs of UPV were obtained in the frequency (formally rigorous) and the time domain during the major phase of eruption. The positions of both of them suitably agree with each other and indicate on the wave arrival from the compact area around volcano during the major phase of Tonga eruption. The UPV magnitude indicates that the contribution from the Tonga volcano has elevated the observed level of ELF power flux by the factor of six relative to the quiet condition.

The study presents seismogenic ULF (ultra-low-frequency) wave effects, as observed at our own new magnetic observatory at Asahi (geographic coordinates: 35.770° N, 140.695° E) in Chiba Prefecture. Our target earthquake (EQ) is a huge one offshore of Fukushima prefecture (37.353° N, 141.603° E) with a magnitude (M) of 7.4, which occurred at 20.59 h on November 21 UT, 2016. As a sampling frequency of 1 Hz was chosen for our induction magnetometer, we could detect both ULF wave effects: ULF radiation from the lithosphere, and the ULF depression effect, indicative of lower ionospheric perturbations. Observing the results of polarization analyses, we detected clear enhancements in ULF (frequency = 0.01–0.03 Hz) lithospheric radiation 14 days, 5 days, and 1 day before the EQ, and also observed a very obvious phenomenon of ULF (0.01–0.03 Hz) depression just 1 day prior to the EQ, which is regarded as the signature of lower ionospheric perturbations. These findings suggest that pre-EQ seismic activity must be present in the lithosphere, and also that the lower ionosphere was very much perturbed by the precursory effects of the Fukushima EQ. These new observational effects from our station have been compared with our previous investigations on different seismogenic topics for the same EQ, including the ULF observations at another magnetic observatory at Kakioka, belonging to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), about 50 km north of our Asahi station, subionospheric VLF/LF propagation data (Japanese and Russian data), AGW (Atmospheric gravity wave) activity in the stratosphere, and satellite observation of particle precipitations. We have found that seismogenic anomalies of different parameters tend to happen just around the EQ day, but mainly before the EQ, and have found the chain-like tendency of the effects of the lithosphere, which seem to propagate upwards the lower ionosphere. Finally, we will try to gain a better understanding of the physical phenomena or mechanisms of the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process during the EQ preparation phase.

There has been enormous progress in the field of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes (EQs) and EQ prediction during the last three decades, and it is recently agreed that electromagnetic effects do appear prior to an EQ. A few phenomena are well recognized as being statistically correlated with EQs as promising candidates for short-term EQ predictors: the first is ionospheric perturbation not only in the lower ionosphere as seen by subionospheric VLF (very low frequency, 3 kHz f 30 kHz)/LF (low frequency, 30 kHz f 300 kHz) propagation but also in the upper F region as detected by ionosondes, TEC (total electron content) observations, satellite observations, etc, and the second is DC earth current known as SES (Seismic electric signal). In addition to the above two physical phenomena, this review highlights the following four physical wave phenomena in ULF (ultra low frequency, frequency Hz)/ELF (extremely low frequency, 3 Hz frequency 3 kHz) ranges, including 1) ULF lithospheric radiation (i.e., direct radiation from the lithosphere), 2) ULF magnetic field depression effect (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbation), 3) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation (radiation in the atmosphere), and 4) Schumann resonance (SR) anomalies (as an indicator of the perturbations in the lower ionosphere and stratosphere). For each physical item, we will repeat the essential points and also discuss recent advances and future perspectives. For the purpose of future real EQ prediction practice, we pay attention to the statistical correlation of each phenomenon with EQs, and its predictability in terms of probability gain. Of course, all of those effects are recommended as plausible candidates for short-term EQ prediction, and they can be physically explained in terms of the unified concept of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process, so a brief description of this coupling has been carried out by using these four physical parameters though the mechanism of each phenomenon is still poorly understood. In conclusion, we have to emphasize the importance of more statistical studies for more abundant datasets sometimes with the use of AI (artificial intelligence) techniques, more case studies for huge (M greater than 7) EQ events, recommendation of critical analyses, and finally multi-parameters observation (even though it is tough work).

We have carried out a preliminary study of the relationship between local seismicity and the behavior of atmospheric temperature and humidity based on data from the local seismic catalog and archival data from the Karimshina observatory in Kamchatka. The chemical potential of water vapor molecules contained in the surface layer of the atmosphere was used as a measure of the impact of seismic processes on the atmosphere. Following the accepted terminology, we call it the atmospheric chemical potential (ACP), which is calculated from the air temperature and humidity. ACP supposedly increases in the process of air ionization by radon (Rn) which is released during the enhancement of seismic activity. It is assumed that Rn rises to the surface more intensively along seismic faults or volcanic fumaroles. Air ionization leads to a decrease in the air humidity and an increase in its temperature, and eventually results in an increase of ACP. We have subtracted the 30-day moving average of the ACP from its time variations to better reveal the ionization contribution. Thus, intervals of increased ACP were found in the temporal vicinity of earthquakes. The duration of these intervals ranged from a week to a month or more. The maximum response of the atmosphere to deep earthquakes is weaker and shifts closer to and beyond the date of a seismic event. The effect was more evident when the wind was directed from an expected Rn release region towards the observatory. We have not found a relationship between the magnitude of earthquakes and the magnitude of the ACP response. The reliability of these conclusions as well as the possibility of using the meteorological methods for earthquake prediction will be further examined.

Tonga volcano eruption on 15 January 2022 was accompanied by an unprecedentedly high lightning activity in the volcano plume which significantly exceeded the lightning activity level of the whole globe. We compare model computations with the observed effect of the Tonga volcano eruption on the global electromagnetic Schumann resonance (SR). This SR disturbance was detected at many observatories covering the whole globe. SR power spectral density was computed using the updated model of the Earth-ionosphere cavity, with the global lightning detections recorded by the World Wide Lightning Location Network, as a source. The modeled dynamics of the SR disturbances during Tonga eruption agrees qualitatively and quantitatively with SR recordings from six globally separated observatories. Unprecedentedly high lightning activity during the active phase of eruption caused significant suppression of the global lightning detection rate without noticeable effect on real global thunderstorm activity.

ABSTRACT. We describe the Schumann resonance (SR) anomalies associated with two earthquakes (EQs) observed in Japan in the spring of 2021. SR is the global electromagnetic phenomenon observed in the ELF (extremely low frequency) band, and its resonance peaks are observed in the power spectra on natural radio noise at frequencies of 8, 14, 20, Hz, etc. The natural source of ELF radiation is the global lightning activity occurring in the Earth-ionosphere cavity. The anomalies were observed for the first time in Japan for the EQs in Taiwan when the distance between the observatory and the EQ epicenter was a few Mm (1 Mm = 1000 km). Recently, a new SR anomaly was addressed, related to nearby (a few hundred km) EQs (Hayakawa et al., 2019, 2020a,b). This paper presents the SR anomalies observed in the vicinity of Nagoya-city for two relatively close (~500 km) successive EQs with magnitude around 7 that occurred offshore the Tohoku area in Japan. The anomaly is characterized by the noticeable simultaneous increase or decrease in the amplitudes of three SR modes. This SR unusual behavior was observed prior to and after each of the two EQs that occurred in February and March, 2021. Observational data were interpreted in the model of seismogenic perturbations of the lower ionospheric conductivity profile. Model computations imply the full-wave solution of the ELF electromagnetic problem in the form of the Riccati equation and the 2D (two dimensional) telegraph equations. We show that observed disturbances in the SR power spectra might be attributed to two types of seismogenic modifications in the lower ionospheric profile: the compression or the expansion of the vertical profiles of mesospheric conductivity over the EQ epicenter.

Electromagnetic emissions (EMEs) associated with earthquake (EQ) epicenters are found to be one of the most reliable phenomena for the short-term pre-seismic mechanism of earthquakes. The detection mechanism of such emissions can have both direct and indirect techniques. In this manuscript, we attempted to present the signature of such emissions before two strong EQs, one in Fukushima on November 21, 2016, and another in Kumamoto on April 15, 2016, in Japan. We use the lithospheric emission in the range of ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves as observed from the Kakioka observatory in Japan for direct measurement. For the indirect investigation, we use the concept of energetic particle precipitation in the inner radiation belt due to wave–particle interaction through the pitch angle scattering processes. We use the particle enhancement (electron and proton) observed from the space-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites. The ULF results found an abnormal increase in lithospheric radiation for Kumamoto and Fukushima EQs on three days and ten days before the EQs, respectively, and an ionospheric depression on six days before both the cases. The satellite observations related to the EMEs from these EQs exhibit electron particle bursts (PB) on the day of the Fukushima EQ. We observe particle bursts 4–5 and 10 days before the mainshock for the Kumamoto EQ. We are not found any proton precipitation for the Fukushima EQ where signatures of proton count number are observed for the Kumamoto EQ. This type of simultaneous observation from the ground and satellite-based instruments establishes that EMEs are observed before the EQs and can be a potential candidate for short-term precursory studies.

The authors would like to make the following corrections to this paper [...]

We present results of concurrent observations of anomalous Schumann resonance (SR) signals during the major phase of eruption of Tonga volcano on 15 January 2022. The experimental data were recorded at French, Italian, Russian, and Japanese observatories that monitor natural electromagnetic signals in the ELF and ULF bands. The major phase of eruption ended by a huge blast, and all ELF/ULF observatories concurrently detected anomalous SR signals for the first time in the ELF observations, while the ULF records showed nothing unusual. The paper presents anomalous dynamic SR spectra detected at four widely separated observatories during the Tonga eruption on January 15, 2022. We show that a fourfold increase in the SR intensity was caused by a compact ELF source localized in the vicinity of Tonga volcano during the major and concluding phase of eruption. Thus, the volcanic SR anomaly emerged from the enormous amount of lightning strokes in the erupted cloud.

Multi-parameter observations, powerful for the study of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC), have been performed for a recent Tokyo earthquake (EQ) with a moderate magnitude (M = 5.9) and rather larger depth (~70 km) on 7 October 2021, in the hope of predicting the next Kanto (Tokyo) huge EQ, such as the 1923 Great Kanto EQ (with a magnitude greater than 7). Various possible precursors have been searched during the two-month period of 1 September to 31 October 2021, based on different kinds of data sets: (i) ULF (ultra-low frequency) magnetic data from Kakioka, Japan, (ii) ULF/ELF (extremely low frequency) magnetic field data from the Chubu University network, (iii) meteorological data (temperature and humidity) from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), (iv) AGW (atmospheric gravity wave) ERA5 data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), (v) subionospheric VLF/LF (very low frequency/low frequency) data from Russia and Japan, (vi) ionosonde Japanese data, and (vii) GIM (global ionosphere map) TEC (total electron content) data. After extensive analyses of all of the above data, we have found that there are a few obvious precursors: (i) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation in the atmosphere, and (ii) lower ionospheric perturbations (with two independent tools from the ULF depression and subionospheric VLF anomaly) which took place just two days before the EQ. Further, ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation has been observed from approximately one week before the EQ until a few days after the EQ, which seems to be approximately synchronous in time to the anomalous variation in meteorological parameters (a combination of temperature and humidity, atmospheric chemical potential). On the other hand, there have been no clear anomalies detected in the stratospheric AGW activity, and in the NmF2 and TEC data for the upper F region ionosphere. So, it seems that the lithospheric origin is not strong enough to perturb the upper F region. Finally, we discuss the possible hypothesis for the LAIC process, and we can conclude that the AGW hypothesis might be ruled out, but other possible channels such as the chemical channel (radon emanation) and the associated effects might be in operation, at least, for this Tokyo EQ.

In this article, we describe a method for predicting of the epicenter location region of Kamchatka and Commander earthquakes (EQs). It is based on the properties of the precursory atmospheric ULF/ELF (1–30 Hz) radiation and the spatial statistics of local EQs in relation to the Kuril-Kamchatka and Aleutian trenches. From this statistics, it follows that more than 90% of events with magnitude (ML) of more than 5 occur in the gap ~ 150 km west of the Kuril-Kamchatka trench and north-east of the Aleutian trench. Additionally, we obtain the approximate location of the epicenter by determining the position of the radiation source. We suppose that it is caused by gas eruption from the hearth of the EQ to the trench and has the nearest location to the EQ epicenter. Further, we obtain other parameters of supposed position of the epicenter from spatial statistics of EQs relative to the projection of radiation source, which approximately coincides with gas emanation area in the ocean surface. The main drawbacks of the method are the dependence of its accuracy on the industrial interferences and the ambiguity of determining the epicenter location in the case of single-point registration of radiation when the main lobe of the azimuthal distribution of radiation crosses both trenches.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) effects with the use of multiparameter precursor observations for two successive Japanese earthquakes (EQs) (with a magnitude of around 7) in February and March 2021, respectively, considering a seemingly significant difference in seismological and geological hypocenter conditions for those EQs. The second March EQ is very similar to the famous 2011 Tohoku EQ in the sense that those EQs took place at the seabed of the subducting plate, while the first February EQ happened within the subducting plate, not at the seabed. Multiparameter observation is a powerful tool for the study of the LAIC process, and we studied the following observables over a 3-month period (January to March): (i) ULF data (lithospheric radiation and ULF depression phenomenon); (ii) ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation; (iii) atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity in the stratosphere, extracted from satellite temperature data; (iv) subionospheric VLF/LF propagation data; and (v) GPS TECs (total electron contents). In contrast to our initial expectation of different responses of anomalies to the two EQs, we found no such conspicuous differences of electromagnetic anomalies between the two EQs, but showed quite similar anomaly responses for the two EQs. It is definite that atmospheric ULF/ELF radiation and ULF depression as lower ionospheric perturbation are most likely signatures of precursors to both EQs, and most importantly, all electromagnetic anomalies are concentrated in the period of about 1 week–9 days before the EQ to the EQ day. There seems to exist a chain of LAIC process (cause-and-effect relationship) for the first EQ, while all of the observed anomalies seem to occur nearly synchronously in time for the send EQ. Even though we tried to discuss possible LAIC channels, we cannot come to any definite conclusion about which coupling channel is plausible for each EQ.

The aim of this work is to study the relationship between the pre-earthquake emissions of radon and ULF/ELF (1–30 Hz) atmospheric electromagnetic radiation. The problem is considered on the example of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Radon, ionizing air, creates ions—centers of condensation of water vapor. As a result of condensation, heat is generated. It results in growth of air temperature and decrease in its humidity. This phenomenon serves as an indicator of air ionization. We used data from 20 Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) weather stations located on Honshu Island to estimate any changes in temperature and humidity over ± 20 days from the date of the main shock. At the same time, we monitored the intensity and location of the source of ULF/ELF radiation using three induction magnetometers belonging to Chubu University. We compared the times and locations of observed signs of ionization and electromagnetic radiation to find out their relationship. It turned out that they are independent, since their dates and localizations do not match. In addition, we found intense ionization of the air after March 11 over a large area of Honshu Island, caused by radiative radiation from the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. However, this phenomenon did not cause low-frequency atmospheric electromagnetic radiation either. These suggest that there is no direct relationship between air ionization and ULF/ELF radiation. This is true at least for this case, given the island nature of the land and oceanic EQs.

Anomalies in Schumann resonance (SR) (or global electromagnetic ELF (extremely low frequency) resonance due to global lightning activity in the Earth-ionosphere cavity) attract lot of attention in possible association with earthquakes (EQs). The first anomalies were observed in Japan for EQs in Taiwan when the distance between observatory and the EQ epicenter was a few Mm (1 Mm = 1000 km). Recently, Hayakawa et al. (2019, 2020a, b) have suggested a new SR anomaly related to the nearby (a few hundred km) EQs unlike the previous distant EQs. This paper presents the SR anomalies observed in the vicinity of Nagoya-city for two relatively close (-1000 km) successive EQs of the magnitude around 7 that occurred offshore the Tohoku prefecture in Japan. The anomaly is characterized by the enhancement in amplitudes of SR modes, and this abnormal behavior was detected before and after each of the two EQs. Observational data were interpreted using the seismogenic perturbations of the lower ionospheric conductivity. Model computations imply the full wave solution of ELF electromagnetic problem in form of Riccati equation and the 2D telegraph equations. We show that observed anomalous alterations in the SR spectra might be attributed to two types of seismogenic modifications: the compression or the expansion of the vertical profiles of mesosphere conductivity over the EQ epicenter.

A wide variety of electromagnetic phenomena possibly related with earthquake (EQ) preparation processes have been reported in the literature during the last few decades. An interesting aspect in their study is the time series analysis of the related observables aiming at the investigation of any embedded dynamics. In this review article we focus on the study of fracto-electromagnetic emissions (fracto-EME) at the MHz band, the ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic field variations (<3 Hz) and the subionospheric very low frequency (VLF) propagation anomalies. We present recent analysis results for these electromagnetic signals using two independent methods which are known for their ability to uncover critical dynamics, the recently proposed method of critical fluctuations (MCF) and the natural time (NT) analysis method. Our results show that all three considered electromagnetic signals present critical characteristics from a few weeks up to a few days before the main shock occurrence. On the other hand, signatures for the departure from the critical (highly symmetrical) state towards a low symmetry state, a state during which there is high localization of the EQ preparatory process, have been identified in specific cases for the MHz fracto-EME as well as for the ULF magnetic field variations. Based on a multidisciplinary analysis, a four-stage model of EQ dynamics by means of fracto-EME in the MHz and kHz bands has recently been proposed. The hypothesis that the precursors considered in this article emerge during the spatially extensive phase of EQ preparation, which corresponds to the first stage of the abovementioned four-stage model, as well as their relation with the foreshock seismic activity are discussed.

This paper is devoted to a method of short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction in Kamchatka, Russia. Properties of low-frequency magnetic fields are the basics of the method, and we used two seismo-electromagnetic phenomena in the EQ prediction: 1. seismo-ionospheric depression in the frequency range of 0.01–0.1 Hz (ULF depression), 2. seismo-atmospheric radiation in the frequency range of 1–30 Hz (ULF/ELF radiation). It is now generally accepted that gas eruption before an EQ causes these ULF/ELF phenomena. We propose a hypothesis that gas emanates from the area in the bottom of Kuril–Kamchatka or Aleutian trenches closest to the epicenter of a forthcoming EQ. The three parameters of an EQ are (i) when (time), (ii) where (position) a next EQ is coming with (iii) how big (magnitude) in the short-term EQ prediction. Position of the source of atmospheric radiation gives an estimate of the epicenter location. Then, we estimate the local magnitude in consequence of its statistical dependence on ULF depression and epicenter distance. Date of a coming EQ is determined by the statistical dependence of delays of EQs relative to the dates of their precursors. The result of application of this method to real magnetic field data is illustrated by official prediction processes during a period of March–May 2016. Limits and possible errors of the method as well as methods to enhance the reliability of the prediction are discussed.

This paper reports an attempt to use ultra-low-frequency (ULF) magnetic field data from a space weather monitoring magnetometer array in the study of earthquake (EQ) precursors in Greece. The data from four magnetometer stations of the HellENIc GeoMagnetic Array (ENIGMA) have been analyzed in the search for possible precursors to a strong EQ that occurred south of Lesvos Island on 12 June 2017, with magnitude Mw = 6.3 and focal depth = 12 km. The analysis includes conventional statistical methods, as well as criticality analysis, using two independent methods, the natural time (NT) method and the method of critical fluctuations (MCF). In terms of conventional statistical methods, it is found that the most convincing ULF precursor was observed in the data of ULF (20–30 mHz) depression (depression of the horizontal component of the magnetic field), which is indicative of lower ionospheric perturbation just 1 day before the EQ. Additionally, there are indications of a precursor in the direct ULF emission from the lithosphere 4 days to 1 day before the EQ. Further study in terms of NT analysis identifies criticality characteristics from 8 to 2 days before the EQ both for lithospheric ULF emission and ULF depression, while MCF reveals indications of criticality in all recorded magnetic field components, extending from 10 to 3 days before the EQ. Beyond the recordings of the geomagnetic stations of ENIGMA, the recordings of the fracto-electromagnetic emission stations of the HELlenic Seismo-ElectroMagnetics Network (ELSEM-Net) in Greece have been analyzed. The MHz recordings at the station that is located on Lesvos Island presented criticality characteristics (by means of both NT analysis and MCF) 11 days before the EQ, while a few days later (7–6 days before the EQ), the kHz recordings of the same station presented tricritical behavior. It is noted that the magnetosphere was quiet for a period of two weeks before the EQ and including its occurrence.

There has been an enormous progress in the field of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes (EQs) and EQ prediction during the last three decades, and it is recently agreed that electromagnetic effects do appear prior to an EQ.A few phenomena are well recognizedas being statistically correlated with EQs: one is the lithospheric radio emission in the ULF (ultra-low frequency, f<1Hz) range, and the second is ionospheric perturbation not only in the lower ionosphere as seen by subionospheric VLF (very low frequency, 3kHz

The method of critical fluctuations (MCF) is a time series analysis method which provides a way of both identifying the critical state and the departure from it. Its application to the ground-based ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic field fluctuations observed prior to the very strong earthquakes (EQs) of magnitudes MW=6.2, MW=6.0 and MW=7.0 which sequentially took place within a two days period (April 14–15, 2016) in Southwest Japan under the city of Kumamoto reveals when the underlying process reached critical state, as well as when it departed from critical state. Specifically, critical dynamics was identified in the raw total geomagnetic field intensity (F) ULF recordings of the Kanoya (Japan) station ∼4 d before the MW=6.2 and ∼5 d before the MW=7.0 event. Moreover, the progressive development of the symmetry breaking phenomenon, which signifies departure from critical state, was identified in later recordings. Specifically the phenomenon evolved from a few hours before the MW=6.0 event until a few hours after the occurrence of the specific EQ, which was a few hours before the MW=7.0 event. The detected combination of phenomena, i.e., the detection of critical state followed by the detection of the departure from the critical state by means of symmetry breaking, indicates that the main event was the third and strongest EQ, while the two preceding EQs were strong foreshocks.