The global pool of reactive nitrogen has doubled in the last century in response to the need to increase food production with the consequent increase in fertiliser-derived reactive nitrogen detrimentally affecting aquatic ecosystems. This study investigates the spatial distribution and significance of denitrification in the lowland, agriculturally-impacted River Wensum catchment in eastern England as a natural attenuation process. To investigate the evidence for denitrification, the hydrochemical characteristics and dual stable isotope composition of nitrate (N-15 and O-18) were measured over a 15-month period, 2015-2017, in 63 samples of field drainage in predominantly clay loam and sandy clay loam soils under mainly arable cultivation. Microbially-mediated denitrification in field drainage was indicated by the gradient of the linear regression of N-15(NO3) and O-18(NO3) compositions with a value of 0.58. Dual fractionation of the nitrate isotopes yielded enrichment factors for delta N-15(NO3) (-4.52 parts per thousand) and delta O-18(NO3), (-4.51 parts per thousand) within the reported ranges for denitrification in aquatic studies. Soil type influenced denitrification, with a positive relationship between percentage clay and delta N-15(NO3) and delta O-18(NO3) values. The same relationship was observed for denitrification rates calculated via a simple mass balance approach, which ranged from 11.0 to 26.3 kg N ha(-1) and accounted for 30-73% of the leached soil nitrogen. Higher denitrification rates were recorded in drainage areas with a greater soil clay content (>20% by weight). Comparing calculated dentification rates for individual drain areas with median delta N-15(NO3) values of drain samples demonstrated that an isotopic enrichment of +1 parts per thousand is associated with a denitrification rate of 2.6 kg N ha(-1). In conclusion, sustainable agricultural practices that maintain natural attenuation processes such as denitrification, for example by preserving and increasing the soil organic carbon content, are desirable to improve overall soil health to support ecosystem services that reduce nitrate pollution.

The pressure of nutrient pollution derived from wastewater treatment works and agricultural runoff is a reason for the decline in the ecological health of aquatic habitats. Projected residential development in catchments creates further nutrient loading that can be offset by nutrient management solutions that maintain ‘nutrient neutrality’ either onsite or elsewhere within the same catchment. This study developed an export coefficient model in conjunction with detailed farm business data to explore a nature-based solution to nutrient neutrality involving seven scenarios of crop conversion to mixed woodland or grazing grass in an area of intensive arable cultivation in the groundwater-fed Blackwater sub-catchment of the River Wensum, UK. When compared with the monitored riverine export of nutrients, the calculated nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs under current land use showed that subsurface denitrification is removing 48–78% of the leached N and that P is accumulating in the field soils. The addition of 235 residential homes planned for 2018–2038 in the Blackwater will generate an additional nutrient load of 190 kg N a−1 and 4.9 kg P a−1. In six of the seven scenarios, the modelled fractions of crop conversion (0.02–0.21) resulted in the required reduction in P loading and more than sufficient reduction in N loading (196–1874 kg a−1 for mixed woodland and 287–2103 kg a−1 for grazing grass), with the additional reduction in N load above the requirement for nutrient neutrality potentially contributing to further improvement in water quality. The cost of land conversion is modelled in terms of crop gross margins and nutrient credits generated in the form of 0.1 kg units of N or P. For the range of scenarios considered, the annual cost per credit ranged from GBP 0.78–11.50 for N for mixed woodland (GBP 0.74–7.85 for N for grazing grass) and from GBP 160–782 for P for both scenarios. It is concluded that crop conversion is a viable option to achieve nutrient neutrality in arable catchments in eastern England when considered together with other nutrient management solutions.

The UK government has made formal commitments to reduce GHG emissions (e.g. under the Climate Change Act 2008 and subsequent amendments) and to protect/improve natural capital and the environment (e.g. as part of the 25 Year Environment Plan published in 2018). Meeting these objectives requires an integrated approach to two parallel challenges i) decarbonising the energy system and ii) better understanding and valuation of natural capital and ecosystem services. From an academic perspective this involves bringing together two substantial, but rather weakly connected bodies of research, while also acknowledging that this integration in a UK setting needs to recognise the international context (i.e. a whole systems perspective). The ADVENT project (ADdressing Valuation of Energy and Nature Together) has been funded by the UK National Environment Research Council to develop conceptual frameworks and modelling tools which ‘integrate the analysis of prospective UK energy pathways with considerations relating to the value of natural capital’. A methodology has been implemented to downscale the outputs of pathways from national energy system models and incorporate environmental impacts into the assessment of different options. This has required defining spatially-optimised distributions of investments in new energy infrastructure using a range of financial and welfare criteria. These distributions are then compared in terms of their construction, transport and land opportunity costs, as well as the implications for biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, recreation, visual amenity and water resources. This paper will present results from comparing different UK energy pathways through to 2050 in terms of the implications of electricity generation from three types of renewables (bioenergy, solar and onshore wind). The results illustrate that i) individual pathways can vary appreciably in their environmental impacts, ii) overall societal welfare can be enhanced by using spatial modelling to incorporate valuations of such impacts into implementation of pathways and iii) assessment outcomes can be sensitive to modelling assumptions (e.g. regarding the proportion of biomass feedstock from domestic or international sources). More broadly, the results demonstrate how important improvements can be achieved in the integration of environmental considerations into the assessment of future energy pathways at regional and national scales. The approach is now being further refined through the UK Energy Research Centre Phase 4 programme and ADVANCES Landscape Decisions project in the UK, as well as the five-country IRENES project funded by Interreg Europe.

We present the first assessment of the impact of land use change (LUC) to second-generation (2G) bioenergy crops on ecosystem services (ES) resolved spatially for Great Britain (GB). A systematic approach was used to assess available evidence on the impacts of LUC from arable, semi-improved grassland or woodland/forest, to 2G bioenergy crops, for which a quantitative 'threat matrix' was developed. The threat matrix was used to estimate potential impacts of transitions to either Miscanthus, short-rotation coppice (SRC, willow and poplar) or short-rotation forestry (SRF). The ES effects were found to be largely dependent on previous land uses rather than the choice of 2G crop when assessing the technical potential of available biomass with a transition from arable crops resulting in the most positive effect on ES. Combining these data with constraint masks and available land for SRC and Miscanthus (SRF omitted from this stage due to lack of data), south-west and north-west England were identified as areas where Miscanthus and SRC could be grown, respectively, with favourable combinations of economic viability, carbon sequestration, high yield and positive ES benefits. This study also suggests that not all prospective planting of Miscanthus and SRC can be allocated to agricultural land class (ALC) ALC 3 and ALC 4 and suitable areas of ALC 5 are only minimally available. Beneficial impacts were found on 146 583 and 71 890 ha when planting Miscanthus or SRC, respectively, under baseline planting conditions rising to 293 247 and 91 318 ha, respectively, under 2020 planting scenarios. The results provide an insight into the interplay between land availability, original land uses, bioenergy crop type and yield in determining overall positive or negative impacts of bioenergy cropping on ecosystems services and go some way towards developing a framework for quantifying wider ES impacts of this important LUC.

Energy, and access to energy, are essential to human life, civilisation and development. A number of energy issues - including energy security, energy prices and the polluting emissions for energy use - now have high prominence on global agendas of policy and diplomacy. In addressing these and other global energy issues, the purpose of this book is to lay out the broad global energy landscape, exploring how these issues might develop in coming decades, and the implications of such developments for energy policy. There are great uncertainties, which will be identified, in respect of some of these issues, but many of the defining characteristics of the landscape are clear, and the energy policies of all countries will need to be broadly consistent with these if they are to be feasible and achieve their objectives. The book therefore provides information about and analysis of energy and related resources, and the technologies that have been and are being developed to exploit them that is essential to understanding how the global energy system is developing, and how it might develop in the future. But its main focus is the critical economic, social, political and cultural issues that will determine how energy systems will develop and which technologies are deployed, why, by whom, and who will benefit from them. The book has three Parts. Part I sets out the current global context for energy system developments, outlining the essential trends of global energy supply and demand, and atmospheric emissions, from the past and going forward, and their driving forces. Part II explores the options and choices, covering both energy demand and energy supply, facing national and international policymakers as they confront the challenges of the global context outlined in Part I. Part III of the book brings together the discussion in Parts I and II with consideration of possible global energy and environmental futures, and of the energy policy choices which will determine which future actually comes to pass

This paper defines the potentially available land for perennial energy crops across Great Britain as the first component of a broader appraisal undertaken by the ‘Spatial Modelling of Bioenergy in Great Britain to 2050’ project. Combining data on seven primary constraints in a GIS reduced the available area to just over 9 M ha (40% of GB ). Adding other restrictions based on land cover naturalness scores to represent landscape considerations resulted in a final area of 8.5 M ha (37% of GB ). This distribution was compared with the locations of Miscanthus and SRC willow established under the English Energy Crop Scheme during 2001–2011 and it was found that 83% of the planting fell within the defined available land. Such a correspondence provides confidence that the factors considered in the analysis were broadly consistent with previous planting decisions.

To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial energy crops requires farmers to select these crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial energy crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial energy crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for energy crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each energy crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial energy crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.

The paper presents a model system, which consists of a partial equilibrium model and process‐based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to determine the optimal distributions of both Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) and short rotation coppice willow (SRC) (Salix. viminalis L. x S. viminalis var Joruun) in Great Britain (GB), as well as their potential contribution to meet heat and electricity demand in GB. Results show that the potential contribution of Miscanthus and SRC to heat and electricity demand is significant. Without considering farm‐scale economic constraints, Miscanthus and SRC could generate, in an economically competitive way compared with other energy generation costs, 224 800 GWh yr−1 heat and 112 500 GWh yr−1 electricity, with 8 Mha of available land under Miscanthus and SRC, accounting for 66% of total heat demand and 62% of total electricity demand respectively. Given the pattern of heat and electricity demand, and the relative yields of Miscanthus and SRC in different parts of GB, Miscanthus is mainly favoured in the Midlands and areas in the South of GB, whereas SRC is favoured in Scotland, the Midlands and areas in the South of GB.

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of "Economic Pressure on Land" (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R (2) = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R (2) = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a "business as usual" and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, "cross-biome leakage" would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.

Virtual Realit y Modelling Language (VRML) is an open standard for 3D m ult im edia and shared virtual worlds on the I nternet . A VRML ‘world’ consist s of a series of files that together describe the geom et ry and at t ributes of objects and terrain in a 3D scene. There are now several GI S program s with the capabilit y to generate VRML from digital m ap databases, and this technical innovat ion provides an efficient m eans of generat ing landscape visualisat ions that can be viewed and interacted with using just a standard web browser. Such a developm ent also has considerable im plicat ions for increasing public part icipat ion in landscape planning issues.

Concern about climate change and energy security is stimulating land-use change, which in turn precipitates social, economic and environmental responses. It is predicted that within 20 years in the UK, bioenergy crops could occupy significant areas of rural land. Among these, dedicated biomass crops, such as Miscanthus (Miscanthus spp.) grass and short rotation willow (Salix spp.) coppice, differ significantly from arable crops in their growth characteristics and management. It is important that the potential impacts of these differences are assessed before large-scale, long-term planting occurs.We used a Sustainability Appraisal Framework (SAF) approach to landscape planning in the UK to identify stakeholder aspirations (objectives) and associated criteria (indicators) for the planting of dedicated biomass crops.The use of environmental and physical constraints mapping allowed the SAF to focus only on environmentally-acceptable locations, thereby avoiding unsustainable trade-offs. The mapping identified 3.1 million ha of land in England as suitable for planting, suggesting the UK government target of 1.1 million ha by 2020 is feasible.Evaluation of the SAF identified that while biodiversity was of concern to stakeholders, some current indicators of biodiversity are not appropriate. Butterfly abundance proved the most appropriate indicator, and it was found that total abundance was greater in field margins of both willow and Miscanthus biomass crops than in arable field margins.Synthesis and applications. The potential conflicts of assuring food security, water availability, energy security and biodiversity conservation are recognized as a key challenge by governments worldwide. Methods with which decision-makers can compare the performance of different land-use scenarios against sustainability objectives will be crucial for achieving optimized and sustainable use of land-based resources to meet all four challenges. Using biomass crops planting as an example, this work illustrates the potential of a Sustainability Appraisal Framework, subject to identification and agreement of appropriate indicators, in securing a holistic understanding of the wide-ranging implications of large-scale, long-term changes to rural land-use in the wider context of sustainable land-use planning per se.

Angela Karp, Alison J. Haughton, David A. Bohan, Andrew A. Lovett, Alan J. Bond , Trudie Dockerty, Gilla Sünnenberg, Jon W. Finch, Rufus B. Sage, Katy J. Appleton, Andrew B. Riche, Mark D. Mallott, Victoria E. Mallott, Mark D. Cunningham, Suzanne J. Clark and Martin M. Turner Centre for Bioenergy and Climate Change and 1b Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, Rothamsted Research, West Common Harpenden, Hertfordshire, AL5 2JQ, UK; School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK; Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust, Fordingbridge, Hampshire, SP5 1EF, UK; Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Laver Building, New North Road, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QE, UK

Climate change is an issue that will increasingly require policy consideration, but for which knowledge and information at the local or landscape scale is either lacking or largely inaccessible. This paper explores the possibility of reinterpreting climate impacts information and presenting it through GIS-based visualisations in a manner that might assist decision-making at the local level. A GIS database was constructed for an agricultural landscape in Norfolk. Future land-use changes under climate change scenario for the 2020s, provided by a land use allocation model at 1 km grid-square resolution, were downscaled to the field-level database using a series of decision rules. The predicted land use changes were then visualised using photorealistic image rendering software. As a technical exercise this work illustrates the extent of recent advances in GIS-based visualisation, but it is also recognised that there needs to be further work on a range of topics (including impact assessment methodologies, the representation of uncertainty and design guidelines) if such images are to be widely used as a information provision and decision support tool in relation to climate change.