First posted September 12, 2023 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was designed to help quantify the risk of adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, the potential need for mitigation measures, and the potential effectiveness of such management measures for reducing these risks. SELDM is calibrated using representative hydrological and water-quality input statistics. This report by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island Departments of Transportation, documents approaches for assessing flows, concentrations, and loads of highway- and urban-runoff and receiving-stream stormwater in southern New England with SELDM. In this report, the term “urban runoff” is used to identify stormwater flows from developed areas with impervious fractions ranging from 10 to 100 percent without regard to the U.S. Census Bureau designation for any given location. There are more than 48,000 delineated road-stream crossings in southern New England, but because there are relatively few precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality monitoring sites in this area, methods were needed to simulate conditions at unmonitored sites. This report documents simulation methods, methods for interpreting stochastic model results, sensitivity analyses to identify the most critical variables of concern, and examples demonstrating how simulation results can be used to inform scientific decision-making processes. Results of 7,511 SELDM simulations were used to do the sensitivity analyses and provide information decisionmakers can use to address runoff-quality issues in southern New England and other areas of the Nation.The sensitivity analyses indicate the relatively strong effect of input variables on variations in output results. These analyses indicate that highway and urban runoff quality and upstream water-quality statistics that vary considerably from site to site have the greatest effect on simulated results. Further data are needed to improve available water-quality statistics, and because the number of monitored sites will never approach the number of sites of interest for water-quality management, research is needed to identify methods to select statistics for unmonitored sites and quantify the uncertainties in the selection process. Hydrologically, prestorm streamflows with and without zero flows are the most sensitive and therefore the most important hydrologic variables to quantify. Results of analyses also are sensitive to statistics used for simulating structural best management practices.Although the focus of the report is on data, statistics, simulation methods, and methods to interpret stochastic simulations, the examples in this report provide results that can be used to inform scientific decision-making processes. The results of 441 simulations that provide regional and site-specific highway and urban runoff yields across southern New England can be used for total maximum daily load analyses. The example stormwater load analysis done for 16 tributaries of the Narragansett Bay demonstrates that highway nitrogen loads are a small fraction of stormwater loads (about 3.6 percent), and a much smaller fraction of all nitrogen loads to the bay, primarily because highways have a small footprint on the land. Examples evaluating the potential effectiveness of end-of-pipe treatment indicate that offsite treatment is warranted in developed areas, and land conservation may be an effective mitigation strategy. The results of these analyses are consistent with conclusions from other simulation and monitoring studies.

First posted November 6, 2023 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 The Federal Highway Administration and State departments of transportation nationwide need an efficient method to assess potential adverse effects of highway stormwater runoff on receiving waters to optimize stormwater-treatment decisions. To this end, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), developed a decision-support software tool based on a statewide version of the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM). This decision-support tool is designed to identify potential adverse effects of highway runoff by using a criterion based on a measurable change in water quality from a surrogate pollutant. The NCDOT worked with the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality to select a 25-percent change in suspended sediment concentration as the decision-rule criterion for identifying measurable downstream water-quality change; this selection was based on available data and widely accepted stormwater monitoring uncertainties. Development of the statewide tool and its application to the Piedmont ecoregion are described in this report. Because SELDM can be applied to build a similar decision-support tool in any State, this report describes practice-ready methods that other State departments of transportation and municipal permittees can use to streamline environmental permitting and project delivery while protecting the environment.Hydraulic design engineers can use this decision-support tool to establish stormwater-treatment goals for highway construction or improvement projects without having to learn SELDM or interpret its statistical output. The tool is a spreadsheet that determines if a selected highway segment can directly discharge highway runoff, if the highway segment can discharge runoff following treatment using a basic vegetated conveyance best management practice (BMP), or if treatment using an advanced BMP is needed to minimize effects of discharges on downstream water quality. To use the tool, hydraulic design engineers obtain upstream-basin characteristics from the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application and highway-site characteristics from preliminary design plans. They then enter these characteristics in the decision-support tool, which identifies the necessary stormwater-treatment goal.The Piedmont ecoregion was used as a case study to demonstrate the type of information the decision-support tool can provide. In this ecoregion, 100 percent of direct discharges meet the water-quality criterion when the drainage-area ratio is less than about 0.007 acres of highway per square mile of upstream basin. Advanced BMPs are needed in 100 percent of basins with drainage-area ratios greater than about 50 acres per square mile. Between these drainage-area ratios, the selection of direct discharge, a basic vegetated conveyance BMP, or an advanced BMP is a function of highway-site and upstream-basin properties.

Transportation agencies need information about the potential effects of climate change on the volume, quality, and treatment of stormwater to mitigate potential effects of runoff on receiving waters. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Highway Administration used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project tool and the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model to perform space-for-time stormwater quality analyses. This study indicated that spatial variations in precipitation statistics within and adjacent to southern New England are greater than projected climate-related changes for the centroid of this region. A dilution-factor analysis indicated that highway runoff would become a greater proportion of downstream flows if average event volumes or time between event midpoints increase and would become a smaller proportion of downstream flows if event durations increase. Highway-runoff yield analyses for total phosphorus (TP) indicate that uncertainty in water quality statistics results in variations in long-term average yields from about 1.69 to 7.96 times higher than the lowest TP values simulated. In comparison, variations in precipitation statistics cause yield variations that ranged from 1.41 to 1.76 for the different simulated concentrations. An analysis of stormwater treatment indicated that uncertainties in runoff treatment variables are also larger than the magnitude of climate variations. This study does not question the potentially large climate-related changes in hydrologic and hydraulic variables expected to occur in the foreseeable future. It does indicate that uncertainties in the current data and potential effects of land use change on stormwater quality and treatment variables are larger than the projected effects of climate change.

First posted September 30, 2022 For additional information, contact: Director, Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201 Chloride deicers have been applied by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) to Interstate Route 5 (I–5) from the Oregon-California border north to mile marker 10 for several years in the high-elevation area known as the Siskiyou Pass. Magnesium chloride (MgCl2) and sodium chloride (NaCl) are applied to keep the interstate highway safe for drivers and allow for efficient transport of goods and people through adverse weather conditions, particularly snow and ice. The U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with ODOT to research the effects of chloride deicers in the Carter and Wall Creek watersheds that drain the vicinity of the Siskiyou Pass.The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was used to estimate combinations of prestorm-streamflow, stormflow, highway-runoff, and event mean constituent concentrations (EMCs), as well as stormwater-constituent loads at sites of interest. The study evaluated the effects of roadway application of chloride deicers on downstream and highway-runoff conditions (particularly EMCs), exceedance rates of criterion maximum concentrations, and concurrent runoff loads of stormwater constituents from a site of interest. SELDM was also used to evaluate the efficiency of hydrograph extension best management practices to reduce peak constituent concentrations. Several SELDM scenarios were developed as sensitivity analyses to evaluate the model benefit of collecting specific local sets of data, such as streamflow, precipitation, highway-runoff and riverine water-quality samples, and volumetric runoff coefficient statistics.Results of the study showed that for SELDM modeling in the Siskiyou Pass area, (1) the inclusion of local streamflow data is important for obtaining accurate downstream EMCs, (2) the inclusion of precipitation data is important for highway and concurrent runoff load calculations, and (3) water-quality constituent EMC data from highway runoff and upstream stormflows are the most important data to collect for highway runoff and upstream water-quality constituent concentration statistics.

First posted June 28, 2021 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 The California Department of Transportation, commonly known as CalTrans, and other municipal separate storm sewer system permittees in California as well as other State departments of transportation nationwide need information about potential loads and yields (loads per unit area) of constituents of concern in stormwater runoff and discharges from stormwater best management practices (BMPs). Although its National Pollution Discharge Elimination System stormwater permit is focused on areas subject to total maximum daily load (TMDL) regulations, CalTrans builds and maintains BMPs to minimize the adverse effects of roadway runoff on receiving waters throughout the State. This report describes approaches used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with CalTrans for using the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) to assess long-term annual yields of highway and urban runoff in selected areas of California. In this study, a series of regional and local yields were simulated to provide statewide planning-level estimates and more refined TMDL-specific yield values. SELDM was used to analyze 368 State roadway and urban runoff yields for 53 runoff quality constituents. The analyses included 222 random-seed analyses, 60 regional State roadway-runoff analyses, 24 regional urban roadway-runoff analyses, and 62 focused TMDL-area analyses.This report describes approaches and statistics used to analyze available hydrologic and runoff quality data in all analyses. Results for all analyses are provided in the model archive, but only a selected subset of results are presented as examples in this report. State roadway runoff, urban runoff, and BMP discharge yields for total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total zinc were selected as examples because they are widespread constituents of concern with substantial amounts of State roadway and urban runoff monitoring data. In this report, a hypothetical basin was specified by using available geographic information to demonstrate use of the State roadway and urban runoff yields to estimate long-term annual stormwater loads from developed areas. Application of these yields to the hypothetical basin indicates that although State-roadway yields may be higher than urban-runoff yields for some constituents, State-roadway loads may be a small proportion of total stormwater loads because State roadways themselves are a small fraction of the total impervious area in such basins. Although application of results from this study may have considerable uncertainty for any particular stormwater outfall, the study does provide robust estimates to support basin-scale runoff-load analyses in California. These analyses also provide estimates for the 12 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency level III ecoregions that are completely or partially within the boundaries of the State of California.

This report documents statistics for simulating structural stormwater runoff best management practices (BMPs) with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM). The U.S. Geological Survey developed SELDM and the statistics documented in this report in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to indicate the risk for stormwater flows, concentrations, and loads to exceed userselected water-quality goals and the potential effectiveness of mitigation measures to reduce such risks. In SELDM, three treatment variables—hydrograph extension, volume reduction, and water-quality treatment—are simulated by using the trapezoidal distribution and the rank correlation with the associated runoff variables. This report describes methods for calculating the trapezoidal distribution statistics and rank correlation coefficients for these treatment variables and methods for estimating the minimum irreducible concentration (MIC), which is the lowest expected effluent concentration from a BMP site or a category of BMPs. These statistics are different from the statistics commonly used to characterize or compare BMPs; they are designed to provide a stochastic transfer function to approximate the quantity, duration, and quality of BMP effluent given the associated inflow values for a population of storm events. Analyses for this study were done with data extracted from a modified copy of the December 2019 version of the International Stormwater Best Management Practices Database. Statistics for volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment were developed with selected data. The medians of the best-fit statistics for selected constituents were used to construct generalized cumulative distribution functions for the three treatment variables. For volume reduction and hydrograph extension, selection of a Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (rho) value that is the average of the median and maximum values for the BMP category may help generate realistic simulation results in SELDM. The median rho value may be selected to help generate realistic simulation results for water-quality treatment variables. Water-quality treatment statistics, including trapezoidal ratios and MIC values, were developed for 51 runoff-quality constituents commonly measured in highway and urban runoff studies. Statistics were calculated for water-quality properties, sediment and solids, nutrients, major and trace inorganic elements, organic compounds, and biologic constituents. Analysis of MIC values provides information to guide professional judgement for selecting values for simulating water quality at sites of interest. The MIC is a lower bound for BMP discharge concentrations and will therefore replace simulated BMP discharge concentrations below the selected value. A new method for estimating MIC values, the lognormal variate of inflow concentrations, was developed in this report and these statistics were calculated for individual constituents and constituent categories. Inflow quality is correlated to MIC values for some constituents, but regional soil concentrations were not strongly correlated to MIC values.

Ecological studies indicate that impervious cover (IC) greater than approximately 5%-20% may have adverse effects on receiving-stream ecology. It is difficult to separate the effects of runoff quality from other effects of urbanization on receiving streams. This study presents the results of a numerical experiment to assess the effects of increasing IC on water quality using the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM). Hydrologic and physiographic variables representative of southern New England were used to simulate receiving water quality in a basin with IC ranging from 0.1% to 30%. Simulation results mirror the results of ecological studies; event mean concentrations (EMCs) of total phosphorus (TP) increase proportionally to the logarithms of imperviousness for a given risk percentile. Simulation results indicated that commonly used stormwater treatment methods may be insufficient for mitigating the effects of imperviousness. Therefore, disconnection, rather than treatment, may be needed to protect water quality, and efforts to preserve undeveloped stream basins may be more effective than efforts to remediate conditions in highly developed basins. Results also indicate that commonly used water-quality criteria may be too restrictive for stormwater because TP EMCs frequently exceed these criteria, even in minimally developed basins.

First posted June 27, 2019 For additional information, contact: Director, Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201 The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to simulate stormwater quality. To assess the effects of runoff, SELDM uses a stochastic mass-balance approach to estimate combinations of pre-storm streamflow, stormflow, highway runoff, event mean concentrations (EMCs) and stormwater constituent loads from a site of interest. In addition, SELDM can be used to assess the effects of stormwater Best Management Practices (BMPs), which are designed to mitigate the adverse effects of runoff into a waterbody. Adverse effects of stormwater on receiving waters are one of the greatest unsolved water-quality problems Nationwide. State DOTs, municipalities, Federal facilities, and private property owners who manage impervious surfaces need information about the potential magnitude of their contributions and the potential effectiveness of methods to mitigate the adverse effects of runoff. Because the efficacy of at-site controls are limited, information about the potential effectiveness of alternative strategies is needed. The USGS, in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), conducted a study to research methods in which SELDM can be used to enhance the efficiency of ODOT’s stormwater program, support the development of a stormwater banking program, and meet environmental goals. Results can be used to develop a strategic, systems-level approach to stormwater management by considering entire watersheds instead of individual road crossings. Two watersheds, Bear Creek and Mill Creek, in western Oregon were selected for analysis. Within each watershed, seven road crossings were selected for demonstrating the utility of SELDM in nested basins.Precipitation statistics, pre-storm streamflow, runoff coefficients, and hydrograph recession factors were calculated for each location and used in SELDM to simulate flow, water-quality concentrations, and constituent loads in the upstream basin, from the highway (or developed area), and downstream from the road crossing. Three water-quality constituents were selected for modeling: suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), total phosphorus (TP), and total copper (TCu). Using water-quality transport curves, the relations between streamflow and SSC and between streamflow and TP were simulated. Concentrations of TCu were simulated by configuring a linear relation between SSC and TCu. A generic BMP was simulated using the median treatment statistics for flow reductions, hydrograph extensions, concentration reductions, and minimum irreducible concentrations from nine BMP categories with data from the 2012 International BMP database. Five simulation scenarios were modeled for demonstrative purposes. These simulations were used to evaluate potential effects of different watershed properties, water-quality inputs, and stormwater mitigation measures. Instream EMCs were compared to hypothetical water-quality criteria for suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and total copper to demonstrate the concept of water-quality risk analysis. For all five scenarios, it was assumed that highway runoff concentrations were independent of location or average annual daily traffic. These five scenarios are as follows:• Simulation Scenario 1—Natural Conditions (hereafter Simulation Scenario 1) represents conditions in an undeveloped watershed. This scenario demonstrates that the strategic placement of a hypothetical road crossing within a watershed could be used to avoid exceeding water-quality standards of TP and SSC, but that no location choice results in meeting TCu standards. Implementation of BMP had the most pronounced effects on downstream water-quality constituent EMCs at road crossings with the highest ratio of highway catchment area to upstream drainage area, but the largest effect of BMP treatment on mean annual load is based on highway catchment area alone.• Simulation Scenario 2—Current Conditions (hereafter Simulation Scenario 2) represents current watershed conditions, where all developed area upstream from the road crossing was modeled as a highway and combined with the undeveloped part of the upstream drainage area (scenario 2A) and where the output from scenario 2A is used for the upstream area (developed area and the undeveloped area), and where the road crossing is added as usual (scenario 2B). Scenario 2 results indicate that attaining water-quality standards is more difficult with upstream developed areas. Specific road-crossing sites can be selected to achieve the fewest water-quality exceedances per year, but water-quality targets are not met without BMP implementation, and in some instances are not achievable even with BMP implementation. Results from this scenario also serve to quantify the upper limit of constituent reduction if funding were available to implement BMPs to large areas of development, and to quantify how much area would need BMP implementation to achieve water-quality targets. • Simulation Scenario 3—Alternative Road Layouts (hereafter Simulation Scenario 3) was designed to assess the sensitivity of SELDM to various road layouts. In this scenario, different highway configurations were superimposed at one road crossing. Results indicate that downstream waterquality constituent EMCs did not exhibit much variation, but annual water-quality constituent loads varied considerably.• Simulation Scenario 4—Varying Road Width (hereafter Simulation Scenario 4) was designed to assess the sensitivity of SELDM to road width. Similar to scenario 3, the results indicate little variation in downstream water-quality constituent EMCs, but annual water-quality constituent loads increased in proportion to road width.• Simulation scenario 5—Changes to Impervious Area (hereafter Simulation Scenario 5) was designed to investigate the effects of changing amounts of imperviousness upstream from the road crossing. Results indicate that the downstream water-quality constituent EMCs are highly correlated with the percentage of impervious area upstream.

First posted May 20, 2019 Revised July 2, 2019 For additional information, contact: Director, South Atlantic Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey720 Gracern RoadColumbia, SC 29210 In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a cooperative agreement with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) to develop a North Carolina-enhanced variation of the national Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) with available North Carolina-specific streamflow and water-quality data and to demonstrate use of the model by documenting selected simulation scenarios. The USGS developed the national SELDM in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to provide the tools and techniques necessary for performing stormwater-quality simulations. SELDM uses a stochastic mass-balance approach to estimate combinations of flows, concentrations, and loads of stormwater constituents from the site of interest (often a highway catchment; nonhighway areas, such as a large impervious area at a shopping center complex, also can be used) and the basin upstream from the stormwater outfall to assess the risk for adverse effects of runoff. SELDM also can be used to simulate the effectiveness of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality concentration reductions by stormwater best management practices (BMPs), which are designed to help mitigate the effects of runoff on receiving water bodies.Some of the statistical inputs needed for the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM were either calculated or augmented using local or regional data from North Carolina. Streamflow statistics used by SELDM were determined for 266 streamgages across North Carolina on the basis of data available through the 2015 water year. Recession ratio statistics used for triangular hydrographs were also developed for 30 streamgages across the State. The NCDOT identified previous research reports on highway-runoff and BMP studies in North Carolina for review of potential data addition to the national FHWA Highway-Runoff Database (HRDB). Following USGS review of these data, a total of 25,087 event mean concentration values and 1,140 storm events for 39 highway-runoff sites and 195 analytes were uploaded to the national HRDB from six North Carolina highway-runoff research reports and a recent USGS bridge deck runoff study. Using data for 27 streamgages in North Carolina, a total of 57 water-quality transport curves were developed for seven constituents for use in simulating water-quality conditions in the upstream basin. Performance data for three BMPs (bioretention, grass strip or swale, and wetland channel) from NCDOT research data were incorporated into the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM for volume-reduction statistics, including the effectiveness of treating four water-quality constituents (total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate plus nitrite) and turbidity.Simulations using the North Carolina-enhanced SELDM are presented for two hypothetical upstream basins in the Piedmont ecoregion and one hypothetical highway site to demonstrate how simulations can be used to provide risk-based information about potential effects of stormwater runoff on downstream water quality and the potential for mitigating those risks by using BMPs. The first group of simulations explores the stochastic variability in dilution factors (the ratio of the highway runoff to the total downstream stormflow) for a hypothetical Piedmont rural creek having drainage areas ranging from 1 to 100 square miles. The second group of simulations examines dilution factors based on variations in precipitation, streamflow, and recession ratios for two hypothetical Piedmont upstream basins (rural and urban) where the drainage area was held constant at 25 square miles. These simulations indicate the sensitivity of results to variations in each of the three variables. The third group of simulations examines the effects of varied concentrations in the upstream basin on water-quality conditions downstream from the highway crossing. Variations in upstream water-quality conditions for three constituents (suspended sediment concentration, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus) are based on water-quality transport curves selected from among the 57 curves developed as part of this study to represent low-, medium-, and high-concentration statistics. Simulations completed for this third group also examine the potential effects of grass swale and bioretention BMP treatment on total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in highway runoff. The BMP performance data from the NCDOT research reports were applied in this group of simulations.The stochastic mass-balance approach used in SELDM analyses and simulations provides a strong tool for engineers and water-resource managers to use in exploring a wide range of possible hydrologic and water-quality inputs and their effects on downstream water quality. The results of this study can not only aid engineers and managers in planning for potential adverse effects of runoff at site-specific locations, they can also help the USGS and other Federal and State agencies with oversight responsibilities in stormwater-quality issues to continue gathering data on potential water-quality effects in receiving streams.

Stormwater practitioners need quantitative information about the quality and volume of highway runoff to assess and mitigate potential adverse effects of runoff on the Nation’s receiving waters. The U.S. Geological Survey developed the Highway Runoff Database (HRDB) in cooperation with the FHWA to provide practice-ready information to meet these information needs on the local or national scale. This paper describes the datasets that are available in version 1.1 of the HRDB and demonstrates how data and statistics from the HRDB can be used with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) to simulate highway runoff. The HRDB includes 249 sites, 6,849 runoff events, and 106,869 event mean concentrations (EMCs) collected during the 1975–2017 period. It includes data from 16 States in the conterminous United States and from Hawaii. The EMCs in the HRDB include measurements for 415 different water-quality constituents. These water-quality measurements include 32,944 trace-metal; 27,496 organic; 15,684 nutrient; 13,016 physical property; 10,307 major inorganic; 6,773 sediment; and 649 other constituent values. There are large variations in the data. For example, EMCs for total suspended solids and total phosphorus range from 0.4 to 5,440 mg/L and 0.004 to 22 mg/L, respectively; geometric means range from 1.58 to 1,379 mg/L and 0.017 to 2.82 mg/L for these constituents, respectively. The example simulations indicate that risks for adverse effects of runoff can vary by orders of magnitude; the HRDB and SELDM facilitate selection of representative statistics from available datasets.

First posted December 13, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 Freshwater streams in Connecticut are subject to many competing demands, including public water supply; agricultural, commercial, and industrial water use; and ecosystem and habitat needs. In recent years, drought has further stressed Connecticut’s water resources. To sustainably allocate and manage water resources among these competing uses, Federal, State, and local water-resource managers require data and modeling tools to estimate the water availability at a variety of temporal and spatial scales for planning purposes. The Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, is a decision-support tool for estimating daily unaltered streamflow and sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut.The CT SSWUE estimates unaltered daily mean streamflow and water-use-adjusted streamflow for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2015, and the monthly sustainable net withdrawal at ungaged sites in Connecticut. Unaltered streamflow is the estimated daily mean streamflow in a drainage basin in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development. Sustainable net withdrawal is the maximum net withdrawal (withdrawal minus wastewater discharges) that can be drawn from a basin without critically depleting the water available through natural streamflow patterns. Sustainable net withdrawal is defined for this study as the difference between the unaltered daily mean streamflow and a user-defined target minimum streamflow.Weighted least squares and Tobit regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites at 19 streamflow quantiles with exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.005 to 99.995 percent. Regressions were based on streamflow quantiles and basin characteristics from 36 reference streamgages in and around Connecticut. Four basin characteristics—drainage area, mean of the soil permeability, mean of the average annual precipitation, and ratio of the length of streams that overlay sand and gravel deposits to the total length of streams in the basin—are used as explanatory variables in the equations. At an ungaged site, interpolation between the streamflow quantiles estimated from the regression equations produces a continuous flow-duration curve. A time series of daily mean streamflow at an ungaged site is then estimated by assuming that for each day, the streamflow quantile occurs on the same date at both a reference streamgage and the ungaged site.In a remove-one cross validation, estimated unaltered daily mean streamflow agreed well with observed values at reference streamgages, with a few exceptions. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from −0.43 to 0.97 with a median value of 0.88. The normalized root-mean-square error ranged from 16.6 to 120.4 percent with a median value of 34.5 percent.An empirical method for estimating 95-percent prediction intervals for unaltered daily and monthly mean streamflow was developed and tested by using the cross-validation data. Prediction intervals for unaltered daily mean streamflow at the cross-validation reference streamgages performed well in most cases. Gaged streamflow values from the cross-validation data fell within the prediction intervals a median 96.6 percent of the time for daily mean time series and 93.9 percent of the time for monthly mean time series.The CT SSWUE computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using spatially referenced water-use information provided by the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. Available water-use information included permitted and registered water withdrawals and permitted wastewater discharges during 1998 to 2015 for the Thames River Basin and central coastal drainage basins. Water-use information was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application for Connecticut and can be used for computing water-use-adjusted streamflow and sustainable net withdrawal at selected points of interest. Altered daily streamflow is computed by applying average daily withdrawals and wastewater discharges to the water balance equation. Average daily surface water withdrawals and wastewater discharges are applied directly to the daily water balance equation. Time-lagged alterations on streamflow from groundwater withdrawals or wastewater discharges are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models.

The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and other state departments of transportation need quantitative information about the percentages of different land cover categories above any given stream crossing in the state to assess and address roadway contributions to water-quality impairments and resulting total maximum daily loads. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with ODOT and the FHWA, added roadway and land cover information to the online StreamStats application to facilitate analysis of stormwater runoff contributions from different land covers. Analysis of 25 delineated basins with drainage areas of about 100 mi(2) indicates the diversity of land covers in the Willamette Valley, Oregon. On average, agricultural, developed, and undeveloped land covers comprise 15%, 2.3%, and 82% of these basin areas. On average, these basins contained about 10 mi of state highways and 222 mi of non-state roads. The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model was used with available water-quality data to simulate long-term yields of total phosphorus from highways, non-highway roadways, and agricultural, developed, and undeveloped areas. These yields were applied to land cover areas obtained from StreamStats for the Willamette River above Wilsonville, Oregon. This analysis indicated that highway yields were larger than yields from other land covers because highway runoff concentrations were higher than other land covers and the highway is fully impervious. However, the total highway area was a fraction of the other land covers. Accordingly, highway runoff mitigation measures can be effective for managing water quality locally, they may have limited effect on achieving basin-wide stormwater reduction goals.

First posted December 17, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 This report is a user guide for the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) computer program (version 2.0). The MA SYE was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection to provide a planning-level decision-support tool designed to help decision makers estimate daily mean streamflows and selected streamflow statistics to assess sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Massachusetts. The MA SYE provides estimates of unaltered streamflow (which is assumed to occur in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development), net streamflow alterations caused by water use, water-use-adjusted streamflow, streamflow yields (estimated unaltered streamflow minus user-defined flow targets), and estimates of the accuracy and uncertainty of estimated unaltered streamflow. The MA SYE uses basin characteristics and water-use volumes (water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows) obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey online StreamStats application to estimate the unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflows. The MA SYE is a database application with a graphical user interface developed by using Visual Basic for Applications with the 32-bit version of Microsoft Access. The graphical user interface is designed include full documentation for users: an introductory instruction form and onscreen help within each interactive form, including explanation buttons, context-sensitive help buttons, and tool-tip and status-bar messages.

First posted May 2, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532 The quality of stormwater runoff from bridge decks (hereafter referred to as “bridge-deck runoff”) was characterized in a field study from August 2014 through August 2016 in which concentrations of suspended sediment (SS) and total nutrients were monitored. These new data were collected to supplement existing highway-runoff data collected in Massachusetts which were deficient in bridge-deck runoff concentration data. Monitoring stations were installed at three bridges maintained by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation in eastern Massachusetts (State Route 2A in the city of Boston, Interstate 90 in the town of Weston, and State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village in the city of Worcester). The bridges had annual average daily traffic volumes from 21,200 to 124,000 vehicles per day; the land use surrounding the monitoring stations was 25 to 67 percent impervious.Automatic-monitoring techniques were used to collect more than 160 flow-proportional composite samples of bridge-deck runoff. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of SS, loss on ignition of suspended solids (LOI), particulate carbon (PC), total phosphorus (TP), total dissolved nitrogen (DN), and particulate nitrogen (PN). The distribution of particle size of SS also was determined for composite samples. Samples of bridge-deck runoff were collected year round during rain, mixed precipitation, and snowmelt runoff and with different dry antecedent periods throughout the 2-year sampling period.At the three bridge-deck-monitoring stations, median concentrations of SS in composite samples of bridge-deck runoff ranged from 1,490 to 2,020 milligrams per liter (mg/L); however, the range of SS in individual composites was vast at 44 to 142,000 mg/L. Median concentrations of SS were similar in composite samples collected from the State Route 2A and Interstate 90 bridge (2,010 and 2,020 mg/L, respectively), and lowest at the State Route 20 bridge (1,490 mg/L). Concentrations of coarse sediment (greater than 0.25 millimeters in diameter) dominated the SS matrix by more than an order of magnitude. Concentrations of LOI and PC in composite samples ranged from 15 to 1,740 mg/L and 6.68 to 1,360 mg/L, respectively, and generally represented less than 10 and 3 percent of the median mass of SS, respectively. Concentrations of TP in composite samples ranged from 0.09 to 7.02 mg/L; median concentrations of TP ranged from 0.505 to 0.69 mg/L and were highest on the bridge on State Route 2A in Boston. Concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) (sum DN and PN) in composite samples were variable (0.36 to 29 mg/L). Median DN (0.64 to 0.90 mg/L) concentrations generally represented about 40 percent of the TN concentration at each bridge and were similar to annual volume-weighted mean concentrations of nitrogen in precipitation in Massachusetts.Nonparametric statistical methods were used to test for differences between sample constituent concentrations among the three bridges. These results indicated that there are no statistically significant differences for concentrations of SS, LOI, PC, and TP among the three bridges (one-way analysis of variance test on rank-transformed data, 95-percent confidence level). Test results for concentrations of TN in composite samples indicated that concentrations of TN collected on State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village were significantly higher than those concentrations collected on State Route 2A in Boston and Interstate 90 near Weston. Median concentrations of TN were about 93 and 55 percent lower at State Route 2A and at Interstate 90, respectively, compared to the median concentrations of TN at State Route 20.Samples of sediment were collected from five fixed locations on each bridge on three occasions during dry weather to calculate semiquantitative distributions of sediment yields on the bridge surface relative to the monitoring location. Mean yields of bridge-deck sediment during this study for State Route 2A in Boston, Interstate 90 near Weston, and State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village were 1,500, 250, and 5,700 pounds per curb-mile, respectively. Sediment yields at each sampling location varied widely (26 to 25,000 pounds per curb-mile) but were similar to yields reported elsewhere in Massachusetts and the United States. Yields calculated for each sampling location indicated that the sediment was not evenly distributed across each bridge in this study for plausible reasons such as bridge slope, vehicular tracking, and bridge deterioration.Bridge-deck sediment quality was largely affected by the distribution of sediment particle size. Concentrations of TP in the fine sediment-size fraction (less than 0.0625 millimeter in diameter) of samples of bridge-deck sediment were about 6 times greater than in the coarse size fraction. Concentrations for many total-recoverable metals were 2 to 17 times greater in the fine size fraction compared to concentrations in the coarse size fraction (greater than or equal to 0.25 millimeter in diameter), and concentrations of total-recoverable copper and lead in the fine size fraction were 2 to 65 times higher compared to concentrations in the intermediate (greater than or equal to 0.0625 to 0.25 millimeter in diameter) or the coarse size fraction. However, the proportion of sediment particles less than 0.0625 millimeter in diameter in composite samples of bridge-deck runoff was small (median values range from 4 to 8 percent at each bridge) compared to the larger sediment particle-size mass. As a result, more than 50 percent of the sediment-associated TP, aluminum, chromium, manganese, and nickel was estimated to be associated with the coarse size fraction of the SS load. In contrast, about 95 percent of the estimated sediment-associated copper concentration was associated with the fine size fraction of the SS load.Version 1.0.2 of the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model was used to simulate long-term (29–30-year) concentrations and annual yields of SS, TP, and TN in bridge-deck runoff and in discharges from a hypothetical stormwater treatment best-management practice structure. Three methods (traditional statistics, robust statistics, and L-moments) were used to calculate statistics for stochastic simulations because the high variability in measured concentration values during the field study resulted in extreme simulated concentrations. Statistics of each dataset, including the average, standard deviation, and skew of the common (base 10) logarithms, for each of the three bridges, and for a lumped dataset, were calculated and used for simulations; statistics representing the median of statistics calculated for the three bridges also were used for simulations. These median statistics were selected for the interpretive simulations so that the simulations could be used to estimate concentrations and yields from other, unmonitored bridges in Massachusetts. Comparisons of the standard and robust statistics indicated that simulation results with either method would be similar, which indicated that the large variability in simulated results was not caused by a few outliers. Comparison to statistics calculated by the L-moments methods indicated that L-moments do not produce extreme concentrations; however, they also do not produce results that represent the bulk of concentration data.The runoff-quality risk analysis indicated that bridge-deck runoff would exceed discharge standards commonly used for large, advanced wastewater treatment plants, but that commonly used stormwater best-management practices may reduce the percentage of exceedances by one-half. Results of simulations indicated that long-term average yields of TN, TP, and SS may be about 21.4, 6.44, and 40,600 pounds per acre per year, respectively. These yields are about 1.3, 3.4, and 16 times simulated ultra-urban highway yields in Massachusetts; however, simulations indicated that use of a best-management practice structure to treat bridge-deck runoff may reduce discharge yields to about 10, 2.8, and 4,300, pounds per acre per year, respectively.

First posted January 10, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532 Flow-proportional composite water samples were collected in water years 2013 and 2014 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, from the Blackstone River at Millville, Massachusetts (U.S. Geological Survey station 01111230), about 0.5 mile from the border with Rhode Island. Samples were collected in order to better understand the dynamics of selected nutrient and metal constituents, assist with planning, guide activities to meet water-quality goals, and provide real-time water-quality information to the public. An automated system collected the samples at 14-day intervals to determine total and dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, to provide accurate monthly nutrient concentration data, and to calculate monthly load estimates. Concentrations of dissolved trace metals and total aluminum were determined from 4-day composite water samples that were collected twice monthly by the automated system. Results from 4-day composites provide stakeholders with information to evaluate trace metals on the basis of chronic 4-day exposure criteria for aquatic life, and the potential to use the biotic ligand model to evaluate copper concentrations. Nutrient, trace metal, suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon, and chlorophyll a concentrations were determined from discrete samples collected at the Millville station and from across the stream transect at the upstream railroad bridge, and these concentrations served as a means to evaluate the representativeness of the Millville point location.Analytical results from samples collected with the automated flow-proportional sampling system provided the means to calculate monthly and annual loading data. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads in water year (WY) 2013 were about 447,000 and 36,000 kilograms (kg), respectively. In WY 2014, annual loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were about 342,000 and 21,000 kg, respectively. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads from WYs 2013 and 2014 were about 56 and 65 percent lower than those reported for WYs 2008 and 2009. The higher loads in 2008 and 2009 may be explained by the higher than average flows in WY 2009 and by facility upgrades made by wastewater treatment facilities in the basin.Median loads were determined from composite samples collected with the automated system between October 2012 and October 2014. Median dissolved cadmium and chromium 4-day loads were 0.55 and 0.84 kg, respectively. Dissolved copper and total lead median 4-day loads were 8.02 and 1.42 kg, respectively. The dissolved nickel median 4-day load was 5.45 kg, and the dissolved zinc median 4-day load was 36 kg. Median total aluminum 4-day loads were about 197 kg.Spearman’s rank correlation analyses were used with discrete sample concentrations and continuous records of temperature, specific conductance, turbidity, and chlorophyll a to identify correlations between variables that could be used to develop regression equations for estimating real-time concentrations of constituents. Correlation coefficients were generated for flow, precipitation, antecedent precipitation, physical parameters, and chemical constituents. A 95-percent confidence limit for each value of Spearman’s rho was calculated, and multiple linear regression analysis using ordinary least squares regression techniques was used to develop regression equations for concentrations of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, suspended sediment concentration, total copper, and total aluminum. Although the correlations are based on the limited amount of data collected as part of this study, the potential to monitor water-quality changes in real time may be of value to resource managers and decision makers.

First posted December 13, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 This report is a user guide for the Connecticut Streamflow and Sustainable Water Use Estimator (CT SSWUE) computer program (version 1.0). The CT SSWUE was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection to provide a planning-level decision-support tool designed to help decision makers estimate daily mean streamflows and selected streamflow statistics to assess sustainable water use at ungaged sites in Connecticut. The CT SSWUE provides estimates of unaltered streamflow (which is assumed to occur in the absence of any water withdrawals or wastewater discharges and with minimal human development), net streamflow alterations caused by water use, water-use-adjusted streamflow, streamflow yields (estimated unaltered streamflow minus user-defined flow targets), and estimates of the accuracy and uncertainty of estimated unaltered streamflow. The CT SSWUE uses basin characteristics and water-use volumes (water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows) obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey online StreamStats application to estimate the unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflows. The CT SSWUE is a database application with a graphical user interface developed by using Visual Basic for Applications with the 32-bit version of Microsoft Access. The graphical user interface is designed to include full documentation for users: an introductory instruction form and onscreen help within each interactive form, including explanation buttons, context-sensitive help buttons, and tool-tip and status-bar messages.

First posted December 17, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator is a decision support tool that provides estimates of daily unaltered streamflow, water-use-adjusted streamflow, and water availability for ungaged, user-defined basins in Massachusetts. Daily streamflow at the ungaged site is estimated for unaltered (no water use) and water-use scenarios. The procedure for estimating streamflow was developed previously and has been implemented with minor changes and updated water-use data in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. Unaltered streamflow at selected exceedance probabilities is estimated by previously published regression equations. Streamflow is interpolated between the regressed quantiles to produce a continuous flow duration curve. A daily streamflow time series is produced for the ungaged site by relating the estimated flow duration curve at the ungaged site to a flow duration curve at a gaged reference site and then transferring the dates from the reference site to the ungaged site.Minor refinements were made to the previously published methods to estimate unaltered and water-use-adjusted streamflow, including a procedure to enforce the monotonic structure of the regression-based unaltered flow quantiles, improvements to the interpolation method used for computing the estimated flow duration curve, and updates to the methods used to compute time-lagged stream alterations from groundwater pumping or discharges. Additionally, a procedure was developed to estimate prediction intervals for daily and monthly unregulated streamflow time series at an ungaged site.The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator computes water-use-adjusted streamflow using water-use data provided by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. Available water-use data included monthly withdrawal and wastewater discharge volumes from 2010 to 2014 for surface-water and groundwater sources. Water-use-adjusted streamflow represents the potential effect of current water use on natural streamflow in the basin over the range of historical hydrologic conditions. Georeferenced water withdrawal and discharge volumes were incorporated into the Massachusetts StreamStats web application for use in version 2.0 of the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator. To compute water-use-adjusted streamflow, mean daily withdrawals and discharges within a user-defined basin are subtracted and added to the unaltered time series, respectively. Surface-water volumes are applied directly to the equation. Time-lagged streamflow alterations from groundwater withdrawal or wastewater discharge sources are estimated by using a response-coefficient method developed from results of previously published, calibrated groundwater models in Massachusetts.The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator was updated to version 2.0 to improve software stability and usability. The version 2.0 software application was developed in Microsoft Access with a graphical user interface. All geoprocessing steps, including basin delineation and compilation of basin characteristics and water use within the basin, were completed in the Massachusetts StreamStats web application and exported for use by the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator version 2.0.

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was used to demonstrate methods for estimating risks for water-quality exceedances of event-mean concentrations (EMCs) of total-copper. Monte Carlo methods were used to simulate stormflow, total-hardness, suspended-sediment, and total-copper EMCs as stochastic variables. These simulations were done for the Charles River basin upstream of Interstate 495 in Bellingham, Massachusetts. The hydrology and water quality of this site were simulated with SELDM by using data from nearby, hydrologically similar sites. Three simulations were done to assess the potential effects of the highway on receiving-water quality with and without highway-runoff treatment by a structural best-management practice (BMP). In the low-development scenario, total copper in the receiving stream was simulated by using a sediment transport curve, sediment chemistry, and sediment-water partition coefficients. In this scenario, neither the highway runoff nor the BMP effluent caused concentration exceedances in the receiving stream that exceed the once in three-year threshold (about 0.54 percent). In the second scenario, without the highway, runoff from the large urban areas in the basin caused exceedances in the receiving stream in 2.24 percent of runoff events. In the third scenario, which included the effects of the urban runoff, neither the highway runoff nor the BMP effluent increased the percentage of exceedances in the receiving stream. Comparison of the simulated geometric mean EMCs with data collected at a downstream monitoring site indicates that these simulated values are within the 95-percent confidence interval of the geometric mean of the measured EMCs.

The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Rhode Island DOT are assessing and addressing roadway contributions to total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Example analyses for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and total zinc in highway runoff were done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with FHWA to simulate long-term annual loads for TMDL analyses with the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model known as SELDM. Concentration statistics from 19 highway runoff monitoring sites in Massachusetts were used with precipitation statistics from 11 long-term monitoring sites to simulate long-term pavement yields (loads per unit area). Highway sites were stratified by traffic volume or surrounding land use to calculate concentration statistics for rural roads, low-volume highways, high-volume highways, and ultraurban highways. The median of the event mean concentration statistics in each traffic volume category was used to simulate annual yields from pavement for a 29-or 30-year period. Long-term average yields for total nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc from rural roads are lower than yields from the other categories, but yields of sediment are higher than for the low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected water quality constituents from high-volume highways are 1.35 to 2.52 times the associated yields from low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected constituents from ultraurban highways are 1.52 to 3.46 times the associated yields from highvolume highways. Example simulations indicate that both concentration reduction and flow reduction by structural best management practices are crucial for reducing runoff yields.