First posted June 17, 2022 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey425 Jordan RoadTroy, NY 12180–8349 A soil-water-balance (SWB) model was developed for Long Island, New York, to estimate the potential amount of annual groundwater recharge to the Long Island aquifer system from 1900 to 2019. The SWB model program is a computer code based on a modified Thornthwaite-Mather SWB approach and uses spatially and temporally distributed meteorological, land-cover, and soil properties as input to compute potential daily groundwater recharge. Simulated outputs indicate that island-wide potential groundwater recharge trends, as a percentage of precipitation, have increased approximately 3 percent during the 120-year period. The simulated results account for both climatic and land-cover changes that have occurred during the period. A change from undeveloped (forested land cover) to low- and medium-density residential land cover or land use increased potential groundwater recharge because of a decrease in evapotranspiration. During the 30-year period from 1900 to 1930, the simulated potential average groundwater recharge rate on Long Island was estimated to be 18.50 inches per year (in/yr), or a total of 1,243 million gallons per day, during the 30-year period from 1985 to 2015, the simulated potential average groundwater recharge rate estimate increased to 20.73 in/yr (a total of around 1,393 million gallons per day).During the 1900–2019 simulation period, the potential average annual groundwater recharge rate was about 19.24 in/yr. The data for that period included values for a 3-year meteorological drought from 1963 to 1965, where the mean precipitation was about 26.5 percent lower than the long-term average of 46.7 in/yr, and the potential groundwater recharge rate was about 12.3 in/yr. During a 3-year wet period from 1982 to 1984, where mean precipitation was about 19.6 percent higher than the long-term average, the estimated potential groundwater recharge rate was about 26.8 in/yr.

First posted October 1, 2021 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey425 Jordan RoadTroy, NY 12180–8349 To assist resource managers and planners in developing informed strategies to address nitrogen loading to coastal water bodies of Long Island, New York, the U.S. Geological Survey and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation initiated a program to delineate areas contributing groundwater to coastal water bodies by assembling a comprehensive dataset of areas contributing groundwater, travel times, and groundwater discharges to streams, lakes, marine surface waters, and subsea discharge boundaries. Steady-state, 25-layer regional, three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow models of average regional hydrologic conditions were used for particle-tracking analysis to delineate areas contributing groundwater to 843 water bodies. Two steady-state conditions were simulated: recent conditions from 2005 to 2015 and predevelopment conditions of about 1900. About 14 million particles were evenly distributed across the water table and tracked forward to discharge zones. Using a uniform porosity of 25 percent, simulated recent condition travel times ranged from less than 2 years to greater than 10,000 years and were visualized in 11 travel time intervals. About 85 percent of particle travel times from the water table to points of discharge are less than 100 years. Simulated particle-tracking ending zones represented 843 receiving water bodies, based on the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation water body inventory and priority water bodies list. Areal delineation of travel-time intervals and areas contributing groundwater to water bodies were generated and are summarized with total groundwater outflow for each water body.

First posted October 1, 2020 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 The Pleistocene- and Cretaceous-age sediments underlying Long Island, New York, compose an important sole-source aquifer system that is nearly 2,000 feet thick in some areas. Sediment characteristics of importance for water supply include water-transmitting properties—horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity—and the distribution of lignite, which provides an important control on oxygen-reduction (redox) conditions and water quality, in Cretaceous-age aquifers. Several decades of urbanization and the associated need to meet water demand have generated abundant data on the lithology of the aquifer sediments and the potential for an improved regional-scale understanding of this aquifer system. There is a range in the source and quality of the information, but large amounts of data, even of lesser quality, can yield insight into important aquifer characteristics.The distribution of the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity and the probability of occurrence of lignite and clay in the aquifer were developed for this study from a database of drilling records and geophysical logs. Lithologic descriptions were categorized into a set of standardized codes, which in turn, were aggregated into a set of general codes for the Pleistocene-age upper glacial and Cretaceous-age Magothy aquifers. General values of hydraulic conductivity were assigned to each code from published estimates on Long Island and analogous hydrogeologic environments on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A binary value of 1 or 0 was assigned to each coded interval to indicate the presence or absence of lignite or based on keywords in the lithologic descriptions. This information was assembled into a geographic information system database that was queried sequentially and used to develop gridded values of each aquifer characteristic by use of ordinary kriging for a set of grids, each representing 10-foot-thick planar slices for the entire vertical thickness of each aquifer. These sets of grids, taken as a whole, represent a quasi-three-dimensional representation of each aquifer characteristic in both the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers.The analysis of hydraulic conductivity shows patterns that generally reflect known depositional features of each unit and are consistent with the current understanding of the geology of the aquifers. Spatial patterns in the upper glacial aquifer show contrasts in estimated hydraulic conductivity: lower values occur in inland areas and likely are associated with glacial moraines; higher values generally occur to the south in association with glacial outwash. Higher values of hydraulic conductivity in the Magothy aquifer, which resulted from deltaic deposition, generally occur in the basal parts of the unit, are associated with channel-lag deposits and are found in parts of the aquifer known for large well yields. Lower values of hydraulic conductivity generally occur in middle parts of the aquifer associated with deposition in overbank and wetland environments. The probability of lignite occurrence is highest in this same vertical zone of the Magothy aquifer, consistent with deposition in wetland environments. The probability of lignite occurrence generally is highest along the southern shore of the island. Lignite occurrence generally is consistent with water-quality patterns; water quality in these same areas indicate chemically reducing conditions and redox-related iron biofouling commonly occurs.

First posted December 16, 2020 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for the aquifer system of Long Island, New York, to evaluate (1) responses of the hydrologic system to changes in natural and anthropogenic hydraulic stresses, (2) the subsurface distribution of groundwater age, and (3) the regional-scale distribution of groundwater travel times and the source of water to fresh surface waters and coastal receiving waters. The model also provides the groundwater flow components used to define model boundaries for possible inset models used for local-scale analyses.The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation uses the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent steady-state conditions for average groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge for 2005–15. The particle-tracking algorithm MODPATH, which simulates advective transport in the aquifer, was used to estimate groundwater age, delineate the areas at the water table that contribute recharge to coastal and freshwater bodies, and estimate total travel times of water from the water table to discharge locations.A three-dimensional, 1-meter (3.3-foot) topobathymetric model was used to determine land-surface altitudes for the island and seabed altitudes for the surrounding coastal waters. The mapped extents and surface altitudes of major geologic units were compiled and used to develop a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework of the aquifer system, including aquifers and confining units. Lithologic data from deep boreholes and previous aquifer-test results were used to estimate the three-dimensional distribution of hydraulic conductivity in principal aquifers. Natural recharge from precipitation was estimated for 2005–15 using a modified Thornthwaite-Mather methodology as implemented in a soil-water balance model. Components of anthropogenic recharge—wastewater return flow, storm water inflow, and inflow from leaky infrastructure—also were estimated for 2005–15. Groundwater withdrawals for various sources, including public water supply, industrial, remediation, and agricultural, were compiled or estimated for the same period.These data were incorporated into the model development to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and initial hydraulic properties of the regional aquifers and confining units within the Long Island aquifer system. Average hydraulic conditions—water levels and streamflows—for 2005–15 were estimated using existing data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. Model inputs were adjusted to best match average hydrologic conditions using inverse methods as implemented in the parameter-estimating software PEST. The calibrated model was used to simulate average hydrologic conditions in the aquifer system for 2005–15.About 656 cubic feet per second of water was withdrawn on average annually for 2005–15 for water supply and an average of about 349 cubic feet per second of water recharged the aquifer annually from return flow and leaky infrastructure. Parts of New York City have drawdowns exceeding 25 feet, mostly because of urbanization and associated large decreases in recharge rates. Large areas in the western part of the island have drawdowns exceeding 10 feet, mostly from large groundwater withdrawals and sewering, which largely eliminates wastewater return flow. Water-table altitudes in eastern parts of the island increased by more than 2 feet in some areas as a result of wastewater return flow in unsewered areas and changes in land use. Changes in streamflows show a similar pattern as water-table altitudes. Streamflows generally decrease in western parts of the island where there are large drawdowns and increase in eastern parts of the island where water-table altitudes increase.

First posted November 20, 2020 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey425 Jordan RoadTroy, NY 12180–8349 A steady-state three-dimensional groundwater-flow model based on present conditions is coupled with the particle-tracking program MODPATH to assess the fate and transport of volatile organic-compound plumes within the Magothy and upper glacial aquifers in southeastern Nassau County, New York. Particles are forward tracked from locations within plumes defined by surfaces of equal concentration. Particles move toward ultimate well capture and discharge to the general head and drain boundaries representing natural receptors in the models. Because rates of advection within coarse-grained sediments typically exceed 0.1 foot per day, mechanisms of dispersion and diffusion were assumed to be negligible. Resulting particle pathlines are influenced by hydrogeologic framework features and the interplay of nearby hydrologic stresses. Simulated hydrologic effects include cones of depression near pumping wells and water-table mounding near points of treated water recharge; however, remedial pumping amounts are balanced by treated-water return, and net effects at distant regional boundaries, including freshwater/saltwater interfaces, are minor.Once a steady-state model was developed and calibrated, eight hypothetical remedial scenarios were evaluated to hydraulically contain the volatile organic-compound plumes. Specifically, the remedial scenarios were optimized to achieve full containment by altering the pumping-well locations, adjusting the pumping rates, and adjusting the discharge locations and rates. Based on the results, total hypothetical extraction rates varied from about 5,462 gallons per minute during an anticipated near-future condition to about 13,340 gallons per minute during full hydraulic containment of all site-related compounds identified by the New York State standards, criteria, and guidance for environmental investigations and cleanup. Targeting of high-concentration zones of the plume increases the total amount of remedial pumpage necessary to capture all parts of the plume but may decrease the total amount of time necessary to operate a remedial system. Simulated time frames of advective transport ranged from about 12 years to capture zones with elevated concentrations of volatile organic compounds (mean particle travel time plus the standard deviation of travel time) to more than 100 years to capture all zones.Groundwater-flow model analysis indicates that all the optimal plume-containment scenarios would have negligible effects on streams and the saltwater-freshwater interface along the south shore of Long Island. Massapequa, Bellmore, Seaman, and Seaford Creeks are represented by using MODFLOW drain-boundary conditions. Saltwater-freshwater interfaces are represented by using MODFLOW general head-boundary conditions where the Magothy aquifer discharges upward into saline groundwater across the Gardiners clay confining unit and the Lloyd aquifer discharges upward into saline groundwater across the Raritan confining unit.

First posted April 18, 2019 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey331 Commerce Way, Suite 2Pembroke, NH 03275 Historical training and operational activities at Joint Base Cape Cod (JBCC) on western Cape Cod, Massachusetts, have resulted in the release of contaminants into an underlying glacial aquifer that is the sole source of water to the surrounding communities. Remedial systems have been installed to contain and remove contamination from the aquifer. Groundwater withdrawals for public supply are expected to increase as the region continues to urbanize. Increases in water-supply withdrawals and wastewater return flow likely will affect the hydrologic system around JBCC and could affect the transport of any contamination that may remain in the aquifer following remediation of contamination from the JBCC. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, developed a numerical, steady-state regional model of the Sagamore flow lens on western Cape Cod and evaluated the potential effects of future (2030) groundwater withdrawals on water levels, streamflows, hydraulic gradients, and advective transport near the JBCC.The aquifer consists generally of sandy sediments underlain by impermeable bedrock and is bounded laterally by a freshwater/saltwater interface. Data on the altitude of the bedrock surface, position of the freshwater/saltwater interface, lithology of the aquifer, spatial distribution of recharge, and hydrologic boundaries were incorporated into the three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater flow model.Some inputs into the numerical model—aquifer properties, leakances, and recharge—are represented as parameters to facilitate estimation of optimal parameter values in an inverse calibration. A hybrid parameterization scheme, with both zones of piecewise constancy and pilot points, is used to represent hydraulic conductivity; other adjustable parameters include recharge, boundary leakance, and porosity. Data on water levels, the distribution of subsurface contamination, and groundwater ages were compiled, evaluated, and used to develop observations of long-term average hydraulic gradients and advective-transport patterns. These observations of steady-state hydrologic conditions were combined with the parameterized groundwater model in an inverse calibration to estimate model parameters that best fit the observations.Current (2010) and future (2030) conditions were simulated in the calibrated model to characterize the groundwater flow system and to determine potential effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on advective-transport patterns at the JBCC. Groundwater flow and advective transport are radially outward from a water-table divide in the northern part of the JBCC; flow diverges from the divide toward all points of the compass. Most groundwater flow and contaminant transport occur in shallow parts of the aquifer. On average, about one-half of the groundwater flux occurs in the shallowest 20 percent of the saturated thickness; shallow flow is even more predominant near streams and lakes. Projected (2030) increases in groundwater withdrawals decrease water levels by a maximum of about 1.2 feet in the northern part of the JBCC; drawdowns exceeding 1 foot generally are limited to areas near the largest increases in withdrawals, such as in the northern part of the JBCC, near Long Pond in Falmouth, and in eastern Barnstable. Streamflow decreases average about 6 percent; the largest decreases are in areas with the largest drawdowns. Changes in hydraulic-gradient directions at the water table exceed 1 degree in about 13 percent of the aquifer, generally near groundwater divides where gradient magnitudes are small and near large groundwater withdrawals. Predictions of advective transport from randomly selected locations at the water table are similar for current (2010) and future (2030) groundwater withdrawals. The results indicate that projected increases in groundwater withdrawals affect water levels and streamflows, but effects on hydraulic gradients and advective transport at the JBCC likely are small.Several underlying assumptions inherent in the model, including observations and weights used in the calibration, representation of local-scale heterogeneity, and simulation of the freshwater/saltwater interface, could affect model calibration and predictions; these assumptions were evaluated with alternative models and alternative inverse calibrations. Eight alternative calibrations were performed in which different, but reasonable, observations and weights were used. The preferred calibrated model had the best overall fit to the observations.Fine-grained silty sediments occur in many parts of the aquifer, and silt lenses can locally affect hydraulic gradients. A set of alternative models in which silts were represented with different correlation distances and hydraulic conductivities indicated that explicitly representing silt lenses could affect model calibration but that the implicit representation of local-scale heterogeneity may be sufficient at the regional scale to represent regional-scale hydraulic gradients. For the coastal boundary, two alternative models representing silty and sandy seabeds and their associated interface positions were developed to test the importance of the assumed coastal-boundary condition. The two alternative models resulted in different predictions of streamflow—streamflows increase with smaller (silty) seabed leakances. However, predictions of advective transport, particularly near the JBCC, generally were similar between the alternative and preferred calibrated models, indicating that the seabed leakance and associated interface position at the coastal boundary does not affect simulations of advective transport in inland parts of the aquifer.

First posted December 21, 2017 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532 The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in support of the Massachusetts Estuaries Project (MEP), delineated groundwater-contributing areas to various hydrologic receptors including ponds, streams, and coastal water bodies throughout southeastern Massachusetts, including portions of the Plymouth-Carver aquifer system and all of Cape Cod. These contributing areas were delineated over a 6-year period from 2003 through 2008 by using previously published regional USGS groundwater-flow models for the Plymouth-Carver region (Masterson and others, 2009), the Sagamore (western) and Monomoy (eastern) flow lenses of Cape Cod (Walter and Whealan, 2005), and lower Cape Cod (Masterson, 2004). The original USGS groundwater-contributing areas were subsequently revised in some locations by the MEP to remove modeling artifacts or to make the contributing areas more consistent with site-specific hydrologic conditions without further USGS review. This report describes the process used to create the USGS groundwater-contributing areas and provides these model results in their original format in a single, publicly accessible publication.

First posted May 25, 2016 Revised October 25, 2016 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532Or visit our Web site at http://newengland.water.usgs.gov/ In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Association to Preserve Cape Cod, the Cape Cod Commission, and the Massachusetts Environmental Trust, began an evaluation of the potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitudes and depths to water on central and western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Increases in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures arising, in part, from the release of greenhouse gases likely will result in higher sea levels globally. Increasing water table altitudes in shallow, unconfined coastal aquifer systems could adversely affect infrastructure—roads, utilities, basements, and septic systems—particularly in low-lying urbanized areas. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod are the largest and most populous of the six flow lenses that comprise the region’s aquifer system, the Cape Cod glacial aquifer. The potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitude and depths to water were evaluated by use of numerical models of the region. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses have a number of large surface water drainages that receive a substantial amount of groundwater discharge, 47 and 29 percent of the total, respectively. The median increase in the simulated water table altitude following a 6-foot sea-level rise across both flow lenses was 2.11 feet, or 35 percent when expressed as a percentage of the total sea-level rise. The response is nearly the same as the sea-level rise (6 feet) in some coastal areas and less than 0.1 foot near some large inland streams. Median water table responses differ substantially between the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses—at 29 and 49 percent, respectively—because larger surface water discharge on the Sagamore flow lens results in increased dampening of the water table response than in the Monomoy flow lens. Surface waters dampen water table altitude increases because streams are fixed-altitude boundaries that cause hydraulic gradients and streamflow to increase as sea-level rises, partially fixing the local water table altitude.The region has a generally thick vadose zone with a mean of about 38 feet; areas with depths to water of 5 feet or less, as estimated from light detection and ranging (lidar) data from 2011 and simulated water table altitudes, currently [2011] occur over about 24.9 square miles, or about 8.4 percent of the total land area of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, generally in low-lying coastal areas and inland near ponds and streams. Excluding potentially submerged areas, an additional 4.5, 9.8, and 15.9 square miles would have shallow depths to water (5 feet or less) for projected sea-level rises of 2, 4, and 6 feet above levels in 2011. The additional areas with shallow depths to water generally occur in the same areas as the areas with current [2011] depths to water of 5 feet or less: low-lying coastal areas and near inland surface water features. Additional areas with shallow depths to water for the largest sea-level rise prediction (6 feet) account for about 5.7 percent of the total land area, excluding areas likely to be inundated by seawater. The numerous surface water drainages will dampen the response of the water table to sea-level rise. This dampening, combined with the region’s thick vadose zone, likely will mitigate the potential for groundwater inundation in most areas. The potential does exist for groundwater inundation in some areas, but the effects of sea-level rise on depths to water and infrastructure likely will not be substantial on a regional level.

First posted December 21, 2015 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532 Or visit our Web site at: http://newengland.water.usgs.gov Water use, such as withdrawals, wastewater return flows, and interbasin transfers, can alter streamflow regimes, water quality, and the integrity of aquatic habitat and affect the availability of water for human and ecosystem needs. To provide the information needed to determine alteration of streamflows and pond water levels in southeastern Massachusetts, existing groundwater models of the Plymouth-Carver region and western (Sagamore flow lens) and eastern (Monomoy flow lens) Cape Cod were used to delineate subbasins and simulate long-term average and average monthly streamflows and pond levels for a series of water-use conditions. Model simulations were used to determine the extent to which streamflows and pond levels were altered by comparing simulated streamflows and pond levels under predevelopment conditions with streamflows and pond levels under pumping only and pumping with wastewater return flow conditions. The pumping and wastewater return flow rates used in this study are the same as those used in previously published U.S. Geological Survey studies in southeastern Massachusetts and represent the period from 2000 to 2005. Streamflow alteration for the nontidal portions of streams in southeastern Massachusetts was evaluated within and at the downstream outlets of 78 groundwater subbasins delineated for this study. Evaluation of streamflow alteration at subbasin outlets is consistent with the approach used by the U.S. Geological Survey for the topographically derived subbasins in the rest of Massachusetts. The net effect of pumping and wastewater return flows on streamflows and pond levels varied by location and included no change in areas minimally affected by water use, decreases in areas affected more by pumping than by wastewater return flows, or increases in areas affected more by wastewater return flows than by pumping. Simulated alterations to long-term average streamflows at subbasin outlets in response to pumping with wastewater return flows were within about 10 percent of predevelopment streamflows for most of the subbasins in the study area. Alterations ranged from a decrease (depletion) of 43.9 percent at an unnamed tributary to Salt Pond in the Plymouth-Carver region to an increase (surcharge) of 18.2 percent at an unnamed tributary to the Centerville River on western Cape Cod. In general, the relative effects of pumping and wastewater return flows typically were larger in the subbasins with low streamflows than in the subbasins with high streamflows, and there were more depleted streamflows than surcharged streamflows. Increases in streamflows in response to wastewater return flows were generally largest in subbasins with a high density of septic systems or a centralized wastewater treatment facility. For average monthly conditions, streamflow alteration results were similar spatially to results for long-term average conditions. However, differences in the extent of alteration by month were observed; percentage streamflow depletions in most subbasins typically were greatest during the low-streamflow months of August and October. The percentages of the total number of ponds affected by pumping with wastewater return flows under long-term average conditions in the modeled areas were 28 percent for the Plymouth-Carver region, 67 percent for western Cape Cod, and 75 percent for eastern Cape Cod. Pond-level alterations ranged from a decrease of 4.6 feet at Great South Pond in the Plymouth Carver region to an increase of 0.9 feet at Wequaquet Lake in western Cape Cod. The magnitudes of monthly alterations to pond water levels were fairly consistent throughout the year.

Land disposal of treated wastewater from a treatment plant on the Massachusetts Military Reservation in operation from 1936 to 1995 has created a plume of contaminated groundwater that is migrating toward coastal discharge areas in the town of Falmouth, Massachusetts. To develop a better understanding of the potential impact of the treated-wastewater plume on coastal discharge areas, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Air Force Center for Engineering and the Environment, evaluated the fate of nitrogen (N) in the plume. Groundwater samples from two large sampling events in 1994 and 2007 were used to map the size and location of the plume, calculate the masses of nitrate-N and ammonium-N, evaluate changes in mass since cessation of disposal in 1995, and create a gridded dataset suitable for use in nitrogen-transport simulations. In 2007, the treated-wastewater plume was about 1,200 meters (m) wide, 30 m thick, and 7,700 m long and contained approximately 87,000 kilograms (kg) nitrate-N and 31,600 kg total ammonium-N. An analysis of previous studies and data from 1994 and 2007 sampling events suggests that most of biologically reactive nitrogen in the plume in 2007 will be transported to coastal discharge areas as either nitrate or ammonium with relatively little transformation to an environmentally nonreactive end product such as nitrogen gas. Nitrogen-transport simulations were conducted with a previously calibrated regional three-dimensional MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Mass-loaded particle tracking was used to simulate the advective transport of nitrogen to discharge areas (or receptors) along the coast. In the simulations, nonreactive transport (no mass loss in the aquifer) was assumed, providing an upper-end estimate of nitrogen loads to receptors. Simulations indicate that approximately 95 percent of the nitrate-N and 99 percent of the ammonium-N in the wastewater plume will eventually discharge to the Coonamessett River, Backus River, Green Pond, and Bournes River. Approximately 76 percent of the total nitrate-N mass in the plume will discharge to these receptors within 100 years of 2007; 90 and 94 percent will discharge within 200 and 500 years, respectively. Nitrate loads will peak within about 50 years at all of the major receptors. The highest peak loads will occur at the Coonamessett River (450 kg per year (kg/yr) nitrate-N) and the Backus River (350 kg/yr nitrate-N). Because of adsorption, travel times are longer for ammonium than for nitrate; approximately 5 percent of the total ammonium-N mass in the plume will discharge to receptors within 100 years; 46 and 81 percent will discharge within 200 and 500 years, respectively. The simulations indicate that the Coonamessett River will receive the largest cumulative nitrogen mass and the highest rate of discharge (load). Ongoing discharge to Ashumet Pond is relatively minor because most of the wastewater plume mass has already migrated downgradient from the pond. To evaluate the contribution of the nitrogen loads from the treated-wastewater plume to total nitrogen loads to the discharge areas, the simulated treated-wastewater plume loads were compared to steady-state nonpoint-source loads calculated by the Massachusetts Estuaries Project for 2005. Simulation results indicate that the total nitrogen loads from the treated-wastewater plume are much lower than corresponding steady-state nonpoint-source loads from the watersheds; peak plume loads are equal to 11 percent or less of the nonpoint-source loads.

Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.

Kettle-hole ponds in southeastern Massachusetts are in good hydraulic connection to an extensive coastal aquifer system that includes the Plymouth-Carver aquifer system on the mainland and aquifers underlying Cape Cod. The ponds receive water from, and contribute water to, the underlying glacial aquifer; ponds also receive water from precipitation and lose water to evaporation from the pond surface. Some ponds are connected to surface-water drainage systems and receive water from or contribute water to streams or adjacent wetlands. The Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection currently (2011) is developing Total Maximum Daily Loads of phosphorus for the freshwater ponds in the region to maintain the health of pond ecosystems; the amounts and sources of water fluxes into and out of the ponds are important factors in determining the amount of phosphorus that can be assimilated into a pond. To assist in this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey used groundwater-flow models of the coastal aquifer system to estimate hydrologic budgets-including inflows and outflows from the aquifer system and adjacent streams and wetlands, and recharge from precipitation-for 425 ponds in southeastern Massachusetts. Water fluxes through the ponds are a function of several factors, including the size, shape, and bathymetry of the pond, orientation of the pond relative to the regional hydraulic gradient, and hydrologic setting relative to the proximity of groundwater divides and discharge boundaries. Total steady-state fluxes through the ponds range from more than 3,300,000 to less than 2,000 cubic feet per day. For ponds without surface-water inlets or outlets, groundwater inflow accounts for 98 to 3 percent of total inflow; conversely, recharge onto the pond surface accounts for the remainder of inflow (between 2 and 97 percent). All natural flows from these ponds are through recharge from the pond into the aquifer. In one pond, about 94 percent of the total outflow is removed for water supply. For ponds that are connected to surface-water drainages, most inflow and outflow are through streams. Ponds that receive water from streams receive most (58 to 89 percent) of their water from those streams. Ponds that are drained by streams lose between 5 and 100 percent of their water to those streams.

..........................................................................................................................................................1 Part 1. Water Resources in the Pawcatuck River Basin ........................................................................1 Part 2. Simulation of Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow with a PrecipitationRunoff Model (HSPF) .......................................................................................................................2 Part 3. Simulated Effects of Withdrawals on Groundwater Flow (MODFLOW Models) ...................2 Part 4. Conjunctive-Management Models as Tools for Water-Resources Planning .........................2 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................5 Description of the Study Area ............................................................................................................6 Previous Investigations........................................................................................................................6 Part 1. Water Resources in the Pawcatuck River Basin ......................................................................11 Climate ..................................................................................................................................................11 Geologic Setting ..................................................................................................................................13 Groundwater ........................................................................................................................................15 Recharge .....................................................................................................................................15 Water Levels ...............................................................................................................................15 Surface Water .....................................................................................................................................19 Streamflow ..................................................................................................................................20 Continuous Stations .........................................................................................................20 Partial-Record Stations ...................................................................................................30 Baseflow......................................................................................................................................30 Ponds and Wetlands .................................................................................................................31 Water Withdrawals ............................................................................................................................31 Municipal Withdrawals ............................................................................................................31 Nonmunicipal Withdrawals .....................................................................................................31 Agricultural Withdrawals .........................................................................................................37 Golf-Course Withdrawals .........................................................................................................37 Predicting Turf-Farm and Golf-Course Irrigation ..................................................................41 Wastewater Discharge and Return Flow ........................................................................................43 Part 2. Simulation of Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow with a PrecipitationRunoff Model (HSPF) .....................................................................................................................45 Effects of Withdrawals on Streamflow ...........................................................................................46 Usquepaug-Queen and Beaver Rivers Region .....................................................................48 Eastern Pawcatuck River Region ............................................................................................51 Lower Wood River Region ........................................................................................................54 Magnitude of Flow Alteration Relative to Streamflow ........................................................57 Effects of Potential Future Land Use and Water Use on Streamflow ........................................58 Method for Estimating Land-Use Change ..............................................................................58 Method for Estimating Future Water Use ..............................................................................59 Effects on Streamflow ...............................................................................................................63 Part 3. Simulated Effects of Withdrawals on Groundwater Flow (MODFLOW Models) .................65 Effects of Pumping under Constant and Varying Recharge Conditions ....................................65 Effects of Varying Pumping-Well Distance with Constant Pumping Rates ...............................72

The glacially derived aquifer systems of southeastern Massachusetts compose the largest groundwater reservoir in the State. Population increases, land-use changes, and climate change in this area could lead to three primary environmental effects that relate directly to groundwater resources - (1) increases in pumping that could adversely affect environmentally sensitive groundwater-fed surface waters, such as ponds, streams, and wetlands; (2) changes in land use that could affect the quality of water in the aquifer; and (3) changes in precipitation and mean sea level that can affect water levels, streamflow, and the position of the freshwater/saltwater boundary. Therefore, understanding groundwater flow and the factors that can affect it is critical to managing and protecting this vital resource.

The glacial sediments that underlie the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury area of southeastern Massachusetts compose an important aquifer system that is the primary source of water for a region undergoing rapid development. Population increases and land-use changes in this area has led to two primary environmental effects that relate directly to groundwater resources: (1) increases in pumping that can adversely affect environmentally sensitive groundwater-fed surface waters, such as ponds, streams, and wetlands; and (2) adverse effects of land use on the quality of water in the aquifer. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, began an investigation in 2005 to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology in the area and to assess the effects of changing pumping and recharge conditions on groundwater flow in the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer system. A numerical flow model was developed based on the USGS computer program MODFLOW-2000 to assist in the analysis of groundwater flow. Model simulations were used to determine water budgets, flow directions, and the sources of water to pumping wells, ponds, streams, and coastal areas. Model-calculated water budgets indicate that approximately 298 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water recharges the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer system. Most of this water (about 70 percent) moves through the aquifer, discharges to streams, and then reaches the coast as surface-water discharge. Of the remaining 30 percent of flow, about 25 percent of the water that enters the aquifer as recharge discharges directly to coastal areas and 5 percent discharges to pumping wells. Groundwater withdrawals are anticipated to increase from the current (2005) rate of about 14 Mgal/d to about 21 Mgal/d by 2030. Pumping from large-capacity production wells decreases water levels and increases the potential for effects on surface-water bodies, which are affected by pumping and wastewater disposal locations and rates. Pumping wells that are upgradient of surface-water bodies potentially capture water that would otherwise discharge to these surface-water bodies, thereby reducing streamflow and pond levels. The areas most affected by proposed increases in groundwater withdrawals are in the Towns of Plymouth and Wareham where more than half of the proposed increase in pumping will occur. In response to an increase of about 7 Mgal/d of pumping, groundwater discharge to streams is reduced by about 6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) (about 4 Mgal/d) from a total of about 325 ft3/s. Reduction in streamflow is moderated by an increase of artificial recharge from wastewater returned to the aquifer by onsite domestic septic systems and centralized wastewater treatment facilities. It is anticipated that about 3 Mgal/d of the 7 Mgal/d of increase in pumped water will be returned to the aquifer as wastewater by 2030. Currently (2005) about 3 percent of groundwater discharge to streams is from wastewater return flow to the aquifer during average conditions. During drought conditions, the component of streamflow augmented by wastewater return flow doubles as wastewater recharge remains constant and aquifer recharge rates decrease. Wastewater return flow, whether as direct groundwater discharge to streams or as an additional source of aquifer recharge, increases the height of the water table near streams, thereby moderating the effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on streamflow. An analysis of a simulated drought similar to the 1960s drought of record indicates that the presence of streams moderates the effects on water levels of reduced aquifer recharge. The area where water-table altitudes were least affected by drought was in the Weweantic River watershed in the Town of Carver. Water levels decreased by less than 2 feet from current average conditions compared to decreases of greater than 5