Objectives The incidence of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) is rising; however, only certain patients experience disease progression requiring therapy. Methods This retrospective cohort study enrolled 303 adults (age≥20 years) who were not receiving treatment at enrollment, including patients with a prior treatment history of Mycobacterium avium complex pulmonary disease (MAC-PD). Clinical, laboratory, microbiologic, physiological, and radiographic variables were extracted. The outcome was clinical progression, defined as treatment initiation. Results A point-wise linear neural network screened 63 features; the 22 most informative features yielded a parsimonious two-variable logistic model based on four routinely available inputs (age, treatment history, cavitation, and modified Reiff score). Overall, 124 patients experienced progression: these patients were younger, and frequently had cavitation, higher modified Reiff scores, and treatment history. The best model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81. The Bayesian network indicated that age and treatment history influenced clinical progression through the radiographic disease burden. Conclusion For the first time, we demonstrated that the modified Reiff score is important for predicting clinical progression in MAC-PD using explainable AI models.

Predictive models for determining coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity have been established; however, the complexity of the interactions among factors limits the use of conventional statistical methods. This study aimed to establish a simple and accurate predictive model for COVID-19 severity using an explainable machine learning approach. A total of 3,301 patients ≥ 18 years diagnosed with COVID-19 between February 2020 and October 2022 were included. The discovery cohort comprised patients whose disease onset fell before October 1, 2020 (N = 1,023), and the validation cohort comprised the remaining patients (N = 2,278). Pointwise linear and logistic regression models were used to extract 41 features. Reinforcement learning was used to generate a simple model with high predictive accuracy. The primary evaluation was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The predictive model achieved an AUC of ≥ 0.905 using four features: serum albumin levels, lactate dehydrogenase levels, age, and neutrophil count. The highest AUC value was 0.906 (sensitivity, 0.842; specificity, 0.811) in the discovery cohort and 0.861 (sensitivity, 0.804; specificity, 0.675) in the validation cohort. Simple and well-structured predictive models were established, which may aid in patient management and the selection of therapeutic interventions.

BACKGROUND:Various prolonged systemic symptoms, forming the long coronavirus disease (COVID), have been observed in patients who have recovered from the acute phase of COVID-19. Although previous studies have reported that COVID-19 impacts health-related quality of life (HRQoL), the associations of long COVID symptoms and clinical characteristics with HRQoL remain unclear. This study aimed to clarify these associations using nationwide Japanese epidemiological data. METHODS:A prospective nationwide cohort study was conducted on patients with COVID-19 between January 2020 and February 2021 at 26 participating medical institutions in Japan. Various long COVID symptoms and HRQoL scores at 3, 6, and 12 months following diagnosis were collected from 986 participants. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to explore the association between HRQoL scores evaluated using the short form-8 (SF-8), long COVID symptoms, and baseline clinical characteristics. RESULTS:Patients who had one long COVID symptom showed a significantly lower physical component summary score (PCS) and mental component summary score (MCS) compared with those without any symptoms at all time points after diagnosis. GEE revealed that long COVID symptoms, including dyspnea, fatigue, headache, and muscle weakness, were significantly associated with worse PCS, whereas poor concentration, sleep disorders, fatigue, and headache were significantly associated with worse MCS. Severity-related baseline parameters for patients with COVID-19 were significantly associated with worse PCS scores, although these factors were not significantly associated with worse MCS scores. CONCLUSIONS:Long COVID symptoms were associated with lower physical and mental HRQoL. Severe outcomes of COVID-19 impacted PCS but not MCS.

Several X-linked genes escape from X chromosome inactivation (XCI), while differences in escape across cell types and tissues are still poorly characterized. Here, we developed scLinaX for directly quantifying relative gene expression from the inactivated X chromosome with droplet-based single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. The scLinaX and differentially expressed gene analyses with large-scale blood scRNA-seq datasets consistently identified the stronger escape in lymphocytes than in myeloid cells. An extension of scLinaX to a 10x multiome dataset (scLinaX-multi) suggested a stronger escape in lymphocytes than in myeloid cells at the chromatin-accessibility level. The scLinaX analysis of human multiple-organ scRNA-seq datasets also identified the relatively strong degree of escape from XCI in lymphoid tissues and lymphocytes. Finally, effect size comparisons of genome-wide association studies between sexes suggested the underlying impact of escape on the genotype-phenotype association. Overall, scLinaX and the quantified escape catalog identified the heterogeneity of escape across cell types and tissues.

Abstract Background Renal impairment is a predictor of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severity. No studies have compared COVID-19 outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and patients with impaired renal function without a prior diagnosis of CKD. This study aimed to identify the impact of pre-existing impaired renal function without CKD on COVID-19 outcomes. Methods This retrospective study included 3,637 patients with COVID-19 classified into three groups by CKD history and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on referral: Group 1 (n = 2,460), normal renal function without a CKD history; Group 2 (n = 905), impaired renal function without a CKD history; and Group 3 (n = 272), history of CKD. We compared the clinical characteristics of these groups and assessed the effect of CKD and impaired renal function on critical outcomes (requirement for respiratory support with high-flow oxygen devices, invasive mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygen, and death during hospitalization) using multivariable logistic regression. Results The prevalence of comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease) and incidence of inflammatory responses (white blood counts, and C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and D-dimer levels) and complications (bacterial infection and heart failure) were higher in Groups 2 and 3 than that in Group 1. The incidence of critical outcomes was 10.8%, 17.7%, and 26.8% in Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The mortality rate and the rate of requiring IMV support was lowest in Group 1 and highest in Group 3. Compared with Group 1, the risk of critical outcomes was higher in Group 2 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03–1.70, P = 0.030) and Group 3 (aOR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.36–2.78, P < 0.001). Additionally, the eGFR was significantly associated with critical outcomes in Groups 2 (odds ratio [OR]: 2.89, 95% CI: 1.64–4.98, P < 0.001) and 3 (OR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.08–3.23, P = 0.025) only. Conclusions Clinicians should consider pre-existing CKD and impaired renal function at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis for the management of COVID-19.

Although cases of respiratory bacterial infections associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have often been reported, their impact on the clinical course remains unclear. Herein, we evaluated and analyzed the complication rates of bacterial infections, causative organisms, patient backgrounds, and clinical outcome in Japanese patients with COVID-19. We performed a retrospective cohort study that included inpatients with COVID-19 from multiple centers participating in the Japan COVID-19 Taskforce (April 2020 to May 2021) and obtained demographic, epidemiological, and microbiological results and the clinical course and analyzed the cases of COVID-19 complicated by respiratory bacterial infections. Of the 1,863 patients with COVID-19 included in the analysis, 140 (7.5

OBJECTIVES:We investigated the occurrence of non-respiratory bacterial and fungal secondary infections, causative organisms, impact on clinical outcomes, and association between the secondary pathogens and mortality in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).METHODS:This was a retrospective cohort study that included data from inpatients with COVID-19 from multiple centers participating in the Japan COVID-19 Taskforce (April 2020 to May 2021). We obtained demographic, epidemiological, and microbiological data throughout the course of hospitalization and analyzed the cases of COVID-19 complicated by non-respiratory bacterial infections.RESULTS:Of the 1914 patients included, non-respiratory bacterial infections with COVID-19 were diagnosed in 81 patients (4.2%). Of these, 59 (3.1%) were secondary infections. Bacteremia was the most frequent bacterial infection, occurring in 33 cases (55.9%), followed by urinary tract infections in 16 cases (27.1%). Staphylococcus epidermidis was the most common causative organism of bacteremia. Patients with COVID-19 with non-respiratory secondary bacterial infections had significantly higher mortality, and a multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that those with bacteremia (aOdds Ratio = 15.3 [5.97-39.1]) were at higher risk of death. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, male sex, use of steroids to treat COVID-19, and intensive care unit admission increased the risk for nosocomial bacteremia.CONCLUSIONS:Secondary bacteremia is an important complication that may lead to poor prognosis in cases with COVID-19. An appropriate medical management strategy must be established, especially for patients with concomitant predisposing factors.

OBJECTIVES:Although SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia has been reported to strongly impact patients with severe COVID-19, the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 harboring detectable intracellular SARS-CoV-2 RNA remain unknown. METHODS:We included adult patients who had developed COVID-19 between February and September 2020. Total white blood cells derived from the buffy coat of peripheral whole blood were used to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA using the Illumina COVIDSeq test. We compared the clinical characteristics between patients with and without detected viral RNA (detected and undetected groups). RESULTS:Among the 390 patients included, 17 harbored SARS-CoV-2 RNA in peripheral white blood cells. All 17 patients required oxygen support during the disease course and had higher intensive care unit admission (52.9% vs 28.9%, P = 0.035), mortality (17.7% vs 3.5%, P = 0.004), kidney dysfunction (severe, 23.5% vs 6.4%, P = 0.029), and corticosteroid treatment rates (76.5% vs 46.5%, P = 0.016) than those of patients in the undetected group. CONCLUSION:We propose that patients with circulating intracellular SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the peripheral blood exhibited the most severe disease course.

OBJECTIVES:COVID-19 was severe in the Delta variant-dominated epidemic wave (fifth wave) in Japan. The clinical characteristics and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination are not fully understood in the Omicron variant-dominated wave (sixth and seventh waves), especially in hospitalized patients. We investigated the relationship between vaccination and disease severity in the Omicron-dominated wave and compared these variant-dominated waves. METHODS:The nationwide COVID-19 database (Japan COVID-19 Task Force) was used to compare clinical characteristics and critical outcomes in patients hospitalized with Delta (fifth, N = 735) vs Omicron-dominated waves (sixth, N = 495; seventh, N = 128). RESULTS:Patients in the sixth and seventh waves had a lower incidence of critical outcomes and respiratory outcomes, and a higher incidence of bacterial infection, although the mortality rate did not differ significantly between waves. In the sixth and seventh waves, 138 (27.9%) and 29 (22.7%) patients with COVID-19 were unvaccinated, respectively. Multivariable analysis adjusted with previously reported factors revealed that the proportion of (1) critical outcomes and (2) respiratory outcomes decreased in a frequency-dependent manner. Thus, (1) (the number of vaccinations): 1-2 times: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.37 (95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.20-0.69); 3-4 times: aOR 0.25 (95% CI; 0.11-0.58); and (2) 1-2 times: aOR 0.43 (95% CI; 0.27-0.66); 3-4 times: aOR 0.36 (95% CI; 0.21-0.60). CONCLUSIONS:Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 with Omicron infections showed a lower incidence of critical outcomes than those with Delta infections, and COVID-19 vaccination may contribute to preventing respiratory failure.

The effect of preexisting hypertension on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prognosis remains controversial. Additionally, no studies have compared the association between blood pressure (BP) indices on admission and COVID-19 outcomes using preexisting hypertension status. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between preexisting hypertension and COVID-19 outcomes in Japanese patients with COVID-19 and assess the impact of BP indices on admission on clinical outcomes in patients with and without preexisting hypertension. Preexisting hypertension presence was confirmed based on the patient’s clinical history. Critical outcomes were defined as high-flow oxygen use, non-invasive and invasive positive-pressure ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death during hospitalization. Preexisting hypertension was observed in 64.6% of the patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis of severe COVID-19 risk factors indicated that preexisting hypertension was independently associated with critical outcomes [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–1.73]. Low or high BP and high pulse pressure on admission were associated with critical outcomes in patients without preexisting hypertension [OR for systolic BP < 100 mmHg: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.21–3.75; OR for high BP stage 2 (160–179 systolic and/or 100–109 mmHg diastolic BP): 2.13, 95% CI: 1.27–3.58; OR for pulse pressure ≥60 mmHg: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.14–2.48]. Preexisting hypertension is a risk factor for critical outcomes in Japanese patients with COVID-19. BP indices are useful biomarkers for predicting COVID-19 outcomes, particularly in patients without preexisting hypertension. Thus, hypertension history, systolic BP, and pulse pressure should be assessed to predict severe COVID-19 outcomes.

The severity of chest X-ray (CXR) findings is a prognostic factor in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We investigated the clinical and genetic characteristics and prognosis of patients with worsening CXR findings during early hospitalization. We retrospectively included 1656 consecutive Japanese patients with COVID-19 recruited through the Japan COVID-19 Task Force. Rapid deterioration of CXR findings was defined as increased pulmonary infiltrates in ≥ 50% of the lung fields within 48 h of admission. Rapid deterioration of CXR findings was an independent risk factor for death, most severe illness, tracheal intubation, and intensive care unit admission. The presence of consolidation on CXR, comorbid cardiovascular and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, high body temperature, and increased serum aspartate aminotransferase, potassium, and C-reactive protein levels were independent risk factors for rapid deterioration of CXR findings. Risk variant at the ABO locus (rs529565-C) was associated with rapid deterioration of CXR findings in all patients. This study revealed the clinical features, genetic features, and risk factors associated with rapid deterioration of CXR findings, a poor prognostic factor in patients with COVID-19.

Abstract Background The severity of chest X-ray (CXR) findings is a prognostic factor in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the prognostic impact of deterioration of CXR findings and the clinical characteristics of patients with worsening CXR findings remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the clinical and genetic characteristics, as well as the prognosis, of patients with worsening CXR findings during early hospitalisation. Methods We retrospectively included 1656 consecutive Japanese patients with COVID-19 recruited through the Japan COVID-19 Task Force. Rapid deterioration of CXR findings was defined as increased pulmonary infiltrates in ≥ 50% of the lung fields within 48 h of admission. Results Rapid deterioration of CXR findings was an independent risk factor for death, most severe illness, tracheal intubation, and intensive care unit admission. The presence of consolidation on CXR, comorbid cardiovascular and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases; high body temperature (≥ 37.7°C); and increased levels of serum aspartate aminotransferase (≥ 30 IU/L), potassium (≥ 4.3 mEq/L), and C-reactive protein (≥ 2.53 mg/dL) were independent risk factors for rapid deterioration of CXR findings. The risk variant at the ABO locus (rs529565-C) was associated with rapid deterioration of CXR findings in all patients with COVID-19. Further, the population-specific risk variant at the DOCK2 locus (rs60200309-A) was nominally associated with rapid deterioration of CXR findings in patients aged < 65 years. Conclusions This study revealed the clinical features, genetic features, and risk factors for rapid deterioration of CXR findings in patients with COVID-19. Rapid deterioration of CXR findings is a poor prognostic factor for patients with COVID-19.

Abstract Background To determine the effectiveness of baricitinib in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), investigate whether baricitinib prevents the need for invasive mechanical ventilation and identify patient subgroups that would benefit from baricitinib. Methods This observational matched-cohort study was conducted by the Japan COVID-19 Task Force, a nationwide multicenter consortium. Patients with COVID-19 aged ≥18 years were identified from 70 hospitals in Japan. Among patients with confirmed COVID-19 from February 2020 to September 2021, those receiving baricitinib were propensity-score matched with controls. Results Among 3309 patients, 144 propensity score-matched pairs were identified. Thirteen (9.0%) patients in the baricitinib group and 27 (18.8%) in the control group required invasive mechanical ventilation during the disease course (odds ratio, 0.43). Although the baricitinib group had more severe disease, there were no significant differences in the intensive care unit admission rates (odds ratio, 1.16) and mortality rates (odds ratio, 0.74) between groups. In subgroup analyses, baricitinib was associated with a significant reduction in the need for invasive mechanical ventilation in patients requiring oxygen support (odds ratio, 0.28), with rapid shadow spread on chest radiography (odds ratio, 0.11), or treated with remdesivir (odds ratio, 0.27), systemic corticosteroids (odds ratio, 0.31), or anticoagulants (odds ratio, 0.17). Conclusions Baricitinib is effective at preventing the need for invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND:Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) is a known biomarker for diagnosis and monitoring of interstitial lung diseases. However, the role of serum KL-6 and the mucin 1 (MUC1) variant (rs4072037) in COVID-19 outcomes remains to be elucidated. We aimed to evaluate the relationships among serum KL-6 levels, critical outcomes and the MUC1 variant in Japanese patients with COVID-19. METHODS:This is a secondary analysis of a multicentre retrospective study using data from the Japan COVID-19 Task Force collected from February 2020 to November 2021, including 2226 patients with COVID-19 whose serum KL-6 levels were measured. An optimal serum KL-6 level cut-off to predict critical outcomes was determined and used for multivariable logistic regression analysis. Furthermore, the relationship among the allele dosage of the MUC1 variant, calculated from single nucleotide polymorphism typing data of genome-wide association studies using the imputation method, serum KL-6 levels and COVID-19 critical outcomes was evaluated. RESULTS:Serum KL-6 levels were significantly higher in patients with COVID-19 with critical outcomes (511±442 U/mL) than those without (279±204 U/mL) (p<0.001). Serum KL-6 levels ≥304 U/mL independently predicted critical outcomes (adjusted OR (aOR) 3.47, 95% CI 2.44 to 4.95). Moreover, multivariable logistic regression analysis with age and sex indicated that the MUC1 variant was independently associated with increased serum KL-6 levels (aOR 0.24, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.32) but not significantly associated with critical outcomes (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.54). CONCLUSION:Serum KL-6 levels predicted critical outcomes in Japanese patients with COVID-19 and were associated with the MUC1 variant. Therefore, serum KL-6 level is a potentially useful biomarker of critical COVID-19 outcomes.

Mechanisms underpinning the dysfunctional immune response in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection are elusive. We analyzed single-cell transcriptomes and T and B cell receptors (BCR) of >895,000 peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 73 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and 75 healthy controls of Japanese ancestry with host genetic data. COVID-19 patients showed a low fraction of nonclassical monocytes (ncMono). We report downregulated cell transitions from classical monocytes to ncMono in COVID-19 with reduced CXCL10 expression in ncMono in severe disease. Cell-cell communication analysis inferred decreased cellular interactions involving ncMono in severe COVID-19. Clonal expansions of BCR were evident in the plasmablasts of patients. Putative disease genes identified by COVID-19 genome-wide association study showed cell type-specific expressions in monocytes and dendritic cells. A COVID-19-associated risk variant at the IFNAR2 locus (rs13050728) had context-specific and monocyte-specific expression quantitative trait loci effects. Our study highlights biological and host genetic involvement of innate immune cells in COVID-19 severity.

Background Multiple prolonged symptoms are observed in patients who recover from acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), defined as long COVID. Cough and sputum are presented by patients with long COVID during the acute and post-acute phases. This study aimed to identify specific risk factors for cough and sputum in patients with long COVID. Methods Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 aged 18 years were enrolled in a multicenter cohort study at 26 medical institutions. Clinical data during hospitalization and patient-reported outcomes after discharge were collected from medical records, paper-based questionnaires, and smartphone apps. Results At the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups, there were no differences in the incidence rates of wet and dry coughs. In contrast, the proportion of patients presenting sputum without coughing increased over time compared to those with sputum and coughing. Univariate analyses of cough and sputum at all follow-up visits identified intermittent mandatory ventilation (IMV), smoking, and older age as risk factors for prolonged symptoms. At the 12-month follow-up, persistent cough and sputum were associated with the characteristics of severe COVID-19 based on imaging findings, renal and liver dysfunction, pulmonary thromboembolism, and higher serum levels of LDH, KL-6, and HbA1C. The Kaplan–Meier curves showed that the severity of acute COVID-19 infection was correlated with prolonged cough and sputum production. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that IMV ventilator management were independent risk factors for prolonged cough and sputum at 12 months. Conclusions In a Japanese population with long COVID, prolonged cough and sputum production were closely associated with severe COVID-19. These findings emphasize that a preventive approach including appropriate vaccination and contact precaution and further development of therapeutic drugs for COVID-19 are highly recommended for patients with risk factors for severe infection to avoid persistent respiratory symptoms.

Additional file 5. Supplementary Table 5. Clinical characteristics of Japanese COVID-19 patients by infection waves with p value.

The long-term exercise tolerance changes in patients with nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) are of great interest because of its chronic course. This study aimed to characterize the associations between changes over time in six-minute walking test (6MWT) parameters and clinical parameters in patients with NTM-PD. Overall, 188 patients with NTM-PD, visiting outpatient clinics at Keio University Hospital from April 2012 to March 2020 were included in the study. Data were collected using the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), pulmonary function test (PFT), blood tests, and the 6MWT at registration and at least once after that. The association of the anchors and clinical indicators with the 6MWT parameters was assessed. The median age [interquartile range] of the patients was 67 [63–74] years. The median baseline six-minute walk distance (6MWD) and final Borg scale (FBS) were 413 [361–470] m and 1 [0–2], respectively. In the correlation analysis, ΔSGRQ total/year (yr), Δforced vital capacity (FVC,

Mechanisms underpinning the dysfunctional immune response in SARS-CoV-2 infection are not yet fully understood. In addition, the functional roles of the genetic variants identified by COVID-19 genome-wide association study (GWAS) remain elusive, especially in non-European ancestry. We analyzed single-cell transcriptomes and T and B cell receptors of > 895,000 peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 73 COVID-19 patients and 75 healthy controls of Japanese ancestry with host genetic data. COVID-19 patients showed a low fraction of nonclassical monocytes (ncMono). We report downregulated cell transitions from classical monocytes to ncMono in COVID-19 with reduced CXCL10 expression in ncMono in severe disease. Cell-cell communication analysis inferred decreased cellular interactions involving ncMono in severe COVID-19, suggesting that the dysfunction of ncMono might be closely involved in the immunopathology of COVID-19 severity. Clonal expansions of B cell receptors were evident in plasmablasts of patients. Putative disease genes identified by the GWAS of severe phenotypes showed cell type-specific expressions in monocytes and dendritic cells. A COVID-19-associated risk variant at the IFNAR2 locus (rs13050728) had COVID-19-specific and monocyte-specific expression quantitative trait loci effects, indicating the enrichment of host genetic risk in innate immune cells. Our multimodal and integrative single-cell analyses highlight biological and host genetic involvement of innate immune cells in COVID-19 severity.