Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are major outbursts of energetic charged particle radiation from the Sun. These events are related to solar flares and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Flares are presumed to accelerate particles in magnetic reconnection processes, whereas fast (speeds > 1000 km s–1) CMEs drive shock waves through the corona that are known to be able to accelerate particles. Electron acceleration has traditionally been ascribed to reconnection in flares whereas proton acceleration is believed to be efficient in CME-driven shocks. Recent observational evidence [1], however, suggests that shocks may be important in electron acceleration as well. Almost all major eruptions are related to both flares and CMEs so the association of the accelerated particles to these eruptive phenomena is often subject to debate. Using novel spacecraft observations of strong SEP events detected in solar cycle 25, we aim at identifying the parent acceleration region of the observed electron and proton events.We have analyzed a set of 45 SEP events between Nov 2020 and May 2023 using data from multiple spacecraft including Solar Orbiter, near-Earth spacecraft (SOHO and Wind), STEREO-A and BepiColombo. We make use of peak intensities of >25-MeV protons and ~100 keV and ~1 MeV electrons and perform correlation studies of these peak intensities with each other as well as with the associated flare intensity. We separate the events into those that are well-connected (angular separation ≤ 35°) or poorly-connected (angular separation > 35°) to the flare by the interplanetary magnetic field.We find significant correlations between electron and proton peak intensities. While events detected by poorly-connected observers show a single population of events, consistent with the idea that these particles are all accelerated by the spatially-extended CME-driven shock, events observed in well-connected regions show two populations: One population has higher proton peak intensities that correlate with electron peak intensities similarly to the poorly-connected events. These are most likely shock associated. The other population has low proton intensities that are less well correlated with electron peak intensities. This population is suggested to show a dominant contribution of the flare.References:[1] Dresing, N. Kouloumvakos, A., Vainio, R., Rouillard, A., Astrophys. J. Lett., 925, L2

Solar Orbiter (SO) observations provide an unprecedented opportunity to study the evolution of solar energetic particle (SEP) events from different locations within the heliosphere. In this work, we have compiled a catalogue of SEP events based on observations of both electrons and protons from the High Energy Telescope (HET) of the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) that occurred in 2020 to 2023 during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25. A scan of simultaneous So/HET intensity-time observations for ~10 MeV protons and near relativistic (~1 MeV) electrons has been performed. We have identified all enhancements observed above the background levels of these particular channels and surveyed available solar wind data by the SO/ Solar Wind Analyzer (SWA) and the SO/Magnetometer (MAG) during the identified events. Moreover, we employed Velocity Dispersion Analysis (VDA) for protons and electrons and Time-shifting Analysis (TSA) for electrons, alone, with the aim to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. Our resulting catalogue includes 75 SEP events. For each of these events (and for each species), we provide the onset and peak time, the peak flux value and fluence. We also identify the solar associations/sources for the SEP events, by comparing the inferred release times of the SEPs to the related light curves from the SO/Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX), the standard flare list obtained from the GOES X-ray Sensor and their associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We find that a significant portion of all SEP events in our sample (48%; 36/75) reached 50 MeV for protons and thus are Space Weather relevant. Finally, a statistical analysis of our observations is presented. We have investigated correlations between peak particle fluxes (for protons and electrons) and event fluences, as well as peak particle fluxes (event fluences), flare magnitude and CME speed. We also calculate the connection angle to the apparent source and identify a subsample of the events that are better connected to the solar event. In addition, the e/p ratio is calculated and a division of the sample based on Fe-rich and 3He-rich events is discussed. Acknowledgement: Research leading to these results has received funding from the Horizon Europe programme project No 101135044 (SPEARHEAD).

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain – usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20–30 R⊙. This means that particle acceleration at coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a “fixed source” of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA–Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is Solar Energetic Particle MODel (SEPMOD), a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD’s fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere – Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft.

A series of solar energetic electron (SEE) events was observed from 2022 November 9 to November 15 by Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, and near-Earth spacecraft. At least 32 SEE intensity enhancements at energies >10 keV were clearly distinguishable in Solar Orbiter particle data, with 13 of them occurring on November 11. Several of these events were accompanied by less than or similar to 10 MeV proton and less than or similar to 2 MeV nucleon(-1) heavy-ion intensity enhancements. By combining remote-sensing and in situ data from the three viewpoints (Solar Orbiter and STEREO-A were similar to 20 degrees and similar to 15 degrees east of Earth, respectively), we determine that the origin of this rapid succession of events was a series of brightenings and jetlike eruptions detected in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the vicinity of two active regions. We find a close association between these EUV phenomena, the occurrence of hard X-ray flares, type III radio bursts, and the release of SEEs. For the most intense events, usually associated with extended EUV jets, the distance between the site of these solar eruptions and the estimated magnetic connectivity regions of each spacecraft with the Sun did not prevent the arrival of electrons at the three locations. The capability of jets to drive coronal fronts does not necessarily imply the observation of an SEE event. Two peculiar SEE events on November 9 and 14, observed only at electron energies less than or similar to 50 keV but rich in less than or similar to 1 MeV nucleon(-1) heavy ions, originated from slow-rising confined EUV emissions, for which the process resulting in energetic particle release to interplanetary space is unclear.

Solar Orbiter (SO) observations provide an unprecedented opportunity to study the evolution of solar energetic particle (SEP) events from different locations within the heliosphere. In this work, we have compiled a catalogue of SEP events based on observations of both electrons and protons from the High Energy Telescope (HET) of the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) that occurred in 2020 to 2023 during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25. A scan of simultaneous So/HET intensity-time observations for ~10 MeV protons and near relativistic (~1 MeV) electrons has been performed. We have identified all enhancements observed above the background levels of these particular channels and surveyed available solar wind data by the SO/ Solar Wind Analyzer (SWA) and the SO/Magnetometer (MAG) during the identified events. Moreover, we employed Velocity Dispersion Analysis (VDA) for protons and electrons and Time-shifting Analysis (TSA) for electrons, alone, with the aim to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. Our resulting catalogue includes 75 SEP events. For each of these events (and for each species), we provide the onset and peak time, the peak flux value and fluence. We also identify the solar associations/sources for the SEP events, by comparing the inferred release times of the SEPs to the related light curves from the SO/Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX), the standard flare list obtained from the GOES X-ray Sensor and their associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We find that a significant portion of all SEP events in our sample (48%; 36/75) reached 50 MeV for protons and thus are Space Weather relevant. Finally, a statistical analysis of our observations is presented. We have investigated correlations between peak particle fluxes (for protons and electrons) and event fluences, as well as peak particle fluxes (event fluences), flare magnitude and CME speed. We also calculate the connection angle to the apparent source and identify a subsample of the events that are better connected to the solar event. In addition, the e/p ratio is calculated and a division of the sample based on Fe-rich and 3He-rich events is discussed.  Acknowledgement: Research leading to these results has received funding from the Horizon Europe programme project No 101135044 (SPEARHEAD).

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA's upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger.In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals.Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential.Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input.New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired.Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams.SEP models are a critical part of both understanding and predicting SEP radiation hazards.Consistent, extensive and quantitative validation is required to assess scientific understanding of SEP sources and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations.Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines.Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.Visualization of CME and SEPs.

We report on the first comprehensive study of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with ∼ 25 MeV solar energetic-proton (SEP) events in 1980 – 2013 observed in the low/inner corona by the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO) Mk3 and Mk4 coronameters. Where possible, these observations are combined with space-based observations from the Solar Maximum Mission C/P, P78-1 SOLWIND, or SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs. The aim of the study is to understand directly measured (rather than inferred from proxies) CME motions in the low to midcorona and their association with SEP acceleration, and hence attempt to identify early signatures that are characteristic of SEP acceleration in ground-based CME observations that may be used to warn of impending SEP events. Although we find that SEP events are associated with CMEs that are on average faster and wider than typical CMEs observed by MLSO, a major challenge turns out to be determining reliable estimates of the CME dynamics in the low corona from the 3-min cadence Mk3/4 observations since different analysis techniques can produce inconsistent results. This complicates the assessment of what early information on a possible SEP event is available from these low-coronal observations.

The ISWAT clusters H1+H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. SIRs, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ca. 27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of CMEs into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5-10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver+ (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.

We analyze periods with elevated >40 MeV proton intensities observed near Earth over a time span of 43 yr (1973–2016) that coincide with the passage of interplanetary (IP) shocks. Typically, elevated proton intensities result from large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The IP shocks observed during these elevated-intensity periods may or may not be related to the origin of the SEP events. By choosing those cases when the shocks can be confidently associated with the solar eruption that generated the SEP event, we analyze the components of these SEP events that are localized in the vicinity of the shock (so-called “energetic storm particles”, ESPs), focusing on those events where the ESP component exceeds 40 MeV. We examine the interdependence of these high-energy ESPs with (i) the properties of the solar eruptions that generated the shocks and the SEP events, and (ii) the parameters of the shocks at their arrival at 1 au. The solar eruptions at the origin of the shocks producing >40 MeV proton ESP intensity enhancements are within ±50° longitude of central meridian and are associated with fast coronal mass ejections (plane-of-sky speeds ≳1000 km s −1 ). The ESP events with the largest >40 MeV proton intensity increases tend to occur when there are structures such as intervening IP coronal mass ejections and other unrelated shocks present in the solar wind through which the shock is propagating. Among the various local shock parameters considered, only the shock speed shows a certain degree of correlation with the observed ESP intensity increase.

On 2020 April 19–20, a solar ejection was seen by spacecraft in a radial alignment that included Solar Orbiter and Wind. The ejection contained a magnetic flux rope where magnetic field and plasma parameters were well correlated between spacecraft. This structure is called an “unperturbed magnetic flux rope” (UMFR). Ahead of the UMFR is a portion of the ejection (not sheath) that is referred to as “upstream” (US). We focus on the US and inquire why the correlation is so much weaker there. Specifically, we analyze data collected by Solar Orbiter at 0.81 au and Wind at L1. We show that a plausible cause for the lack of coherence in the US is a combination of front erosion and internal reconnection occurring there. Front erosion is inferred from an analysis of azimuthal magnetic flux balance in the UMFR. In the present case, we contend that the US, rather than the UMFR, is the source of the eroded field lines. The presence of erosion is supported further by a direct comparison of the magnetic field data at both spacecraft that shows, in particular, a massive shrinkage of the front portion of the US. Internal reconnection is also happening at thin current sheets inside the US. Strong nonradial flows are reconfiguring the structure. As a result of these reconnection processes, a whole section of the US is disrupted and field lines move down the flanks of the ejection and out of view of Wind.

Medium Energy Electron (MEE) precipitation (≳30 keV) ionizes the mesosphere and initiates chemical reactions, which ultimately can reduce mesospheric and stratospheric ozone. Currently, there are considerable differences in how existing parameterizations represent flux response, timing, and duration of MEE precipitation, especially considering its high‐energy tail (≳300 keV). This study compares the nature of ≳300 to ≳30 keV electron fluxes to better understand differences within MEE precipitation. The MEE fluxes are estimated from measurements by the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector (MEPED) onboard the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) from 2004 to 2014. The fluxes are explored in the context of solar wind drivers: corotating high‐speed solar wind streams (HSSs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) alongside their associated solar wind properties. Three key aspects of ≳300 keV electron fluxes are investigated: maximum response, peak timing, and duration. The results reveal a structure‐dependent correlation (0.89) between the peak fluxes of ≳30 and ≳300 keV electrons. The epsilon coupling function correlates well (0.84) with the ≳300 keV peak flux, independent of solar wind structure. The ≳300 keV flux peaks 0–3 days after the ≳30 keV flux peaks. The highest probability (∼42%) occurs for a 1‐day delay, while predictive capabilities increase when accounting for solar wind speed. The ≳300 keV flux response has the highest probability of lasting 4 days for both CMEs and HSSs. The results form a base for a stochastic MEE parameterization that goes beyond the average picture, enabling realistic flux variability on both daily and decadal scales.

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth's protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.

ABSTRACT We identify and investigate cosmic ray Forbush decreases (FDs) observed in the E > 50 MeV data from the Helios 1 and 2 spacecraft, spanning from 1974–1985 and covering heliocentric distances in the range 0.28–1 au. A Helios FD catalogue is compiled, including the characteristics of the cosmic ray variations, as well as those of the solar wind (SW) and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) of the associated interplanetary disturbances. An extended statistical study considers the radial dependence of the FD magnitude, the SW velocity, and the IMF intensity in these disturbances. It is found that the Helios FD sizes at different distances from the Sun are determined by the parameters of the interplanetary disturbances. In particular, the FD magnitudes observed at Helios, as well as near Earth, correlate well with VB, which is the product of the maximum SW velocity and the IMF intensity when normalized by the average values of these parameters at the radial distance of the observations. However, we found that, on average, the Helios FD sizes are statistically independent of the radial distance in the range of 0.28–1 au.

The COSPAR iSWAT (international Space Weather Action Teams) initiative is a global hub for collaborations addressing challenges across the field of space weather. We present the COSPAR Space Weather Roadmap update for the iSWAT clusters H1+H2 covering interplanetary space and its characteristics, with focus on large-scale corotating and transient structures impacting Earth. We review the physical background of different solar wind streams together with coronal mass ejections and the considerable efforts that have been made to model these phenomena. We outline the limitations coming from observations with rather large uncertainties, making reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, in the wake of the upcoming solar cycle 25, the increased complexity of interplanetary space with enhanced solar activity poses a challenge to models. The current paper presents the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5-10 years.

Energetic Electron Precipitation (EEP) from the Earth's plasma sheet and the radiation belts is an important feature of atmospheric dynamics through their destruction of ozone in the lower thermosphere and mesosphere. Therefore, understanding the magnitude of the atmospheric impact of the Sun‐Earth interaction requires a comprehensive understanding of the intensity and location of EEP. This study improves the accuracy of a previous pressure‐corrected Dst model that predicts the equatorward extent of >43, >114, and >292 keV EEP using the measurements from the Medium Energy Proton Electron Detector detector of six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites and EUMETSAT/METOP satellites. The improvement is achieved through multiple linear regression of pressure‐corrected Dst and pressure‐corrected Ring Current (RC) indices. The RC index mitigates the baseline variation of the Dst index that created an inherent solar cycle bias in the previous model. The new model is then extended to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) after removing the South Atlantic Anomaly longitudes from the data. More than 80% of the residuals lie within ±1.8° Corrected Geomagnetic Latitude (CGMLat) in the Northern Hemisphere and within ±1.98° CGMLat in the SH.

et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.