Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) for early breast cancer can make breast-conserving surgery more feasible and might be more likely to eradicate micrometastatic disease than might the same chemotherapy given after surgery. We investigated the long-term benefits and risks of NACT and the influence of tumour characteristics on outcome with a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from relevant randomised trials. Methods We obtained information about prerandomisation tumour characteristics, clinical tumour response, surgery, recurrence, and mortality for 4756 women in ten randomised trials in early breast cancer that began before 2005 and compared NACT with the same chemotherapy given postoperatively. Primary outcomes were tumour response, extent of local therapy, local and distant recurrence, breast cancer death, and overall mortality. Analyses by intention-to-treat used standard regression (for response and frequency of breast-conserving therapy) and log-rank methods (for recurrence and mortality). Findings Patients entered the trials from 1983 to 2002 and median follow-up was 9 years (IQR 5-14), with the last follow-up in 2013. Most chemotherapy was anthracycline based (3838 [81%] of 4756 women). More than two thirds (1349 [69%] of 1947) of women allocated NACT had a complete or partial clinical response. Patients allocated NACT had an increased frequency of breast-conserving therapy (1504 [65%] of 2320 treated with NACT vs 1135 [49%] of 2318 treated with adjuvant chemotherapy). NACT was associated with more frequent local recurrence than was adjuvant chemotherapy: the 15 year local recurrence was 21.4% for NACT versus 15.9% for adjuvant chemotherapy (5.5% increase [95% CI 2.4-8.6]; rate ratio 1.37 [95% CI 1.17-1.61]; p = 0.0001). No significant difference between NACT and adjuvant chemotherapy was noted for distant recurrence (15 year risk 38.2% for NACT vs 38.0% for adjuvant chemotherapy; rate ratio 1.02 [95% CI 0.92-1.14]; p = 0.66), breast cancer mortality (34.4% vs 33.7%; 1.06 [0.95-1.18]; p = 0.31), or death from any cause (40.9% vs 41.2%; 1.04 [0.94-1.15]; p = 0.45). Interpretation Tumours downsized by NACT might have higher local recurrence after breast-conserving therapy than might tumours of the same dimensions in women who have not received NACT. Strategies to mitigate the increased local recurrence after breast-conserving therapy in tumours downsized by NACT should be considered-eg, careful tumour localisation, detailed pathological assessment, and appropriate radiotherapy. Copyright (c) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Background Quinquennial overviews (1985-2000) of the randomised trials in early breast cancer have assessed the 5-year and 10-year effects of various systemic adjuvant therapies on breast cancer recurrence and survival. Here, we report the 10-year and 15-year effects.Methods Collaborative meta-analyses were undertaken of 194 unconfounded randomised trials of adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal therapy that began by 1995. Many trials involved CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorouracil), anthracycline-based combinations such as FAC (fluorouracil, doxombicin, cyclophosphamide) or FEC (fluorouracil, epirubicin, cyclophosphamide), tamoxifen, or ovarian suppression: none involved taxanes, trastuzumab, raloxifene, or modem aromatase inhibitors.Findings Allocation to about 6 months of anthracycline-based polychemotherapy (eg, with FAC or FEC) reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by about 38% (SE 5) for women younger than 50 years of age when diagnosed and by about 20% (SE 4) for those of age 50-69 years when diagnosed, largely irrespective of the use of tamoxifen and of oestrogen receptor (ER) status, nodal status, or other tumour characteristics. Such regimens are significantly (2p=0 . 0001 for recurrence, 2p<0 . 00001 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than CMF chemotherapy. Few women of age 70 years or older entered these chemotherapy trials.For ER-positive disease only, allocation to about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by 31% (SE 3), largely irrespective of the use of chemotherapy and of age (<50, 50-69, >= 70 years), progesterone receptor status, or other tumour characteristics. 5 years is significantly (2p<0 . 00001 for recurrence, 2p=0 . 01 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than just 1-2 years of tamoxifen. For ER-positive tumours, the annual breast cancer mortality rates are similar during years 0-4 and 5-14, as are the proportional reductions in them by 5 years of tamoxifen, so the cumulative reduction in mortality is more than twice as big at 15 years as at 5 years after diagnosis.These results combine six meta-analyses: anthracycline-based versus no chemotherapy (8000 women); CMF-based versus no chemotherapy (14 000); anthracycline-based versus CMF-based chemotherapy (14 000); about 5 years of tamoxifen versus none (15 000); about 1-2 years of tamoxifen versus none (33 000); and about 5 years versus 1-2 years of tamoxifen (18 000). Finally, allocation to ovarian ablation or suppression (8000 women) also significantly reduces breast cancer mortality, but appears to do so only in the absence of other systemic treatments.For middle-aged women with ER-positive disease (the commonest type of breast cancer), the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the next 15 years would be approximately halved by 6 months of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (with a combination such as FAC or FEC) followed by 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. For, if mortality reductions of 38% (age <50 years) and 20% (age 50-69 years) from such chemotherapy were followed by a further reduction of 31% from tamoxifen in the risks that remain, the final mortality reductions would be 57% and 45%, respectively (and, the trial results could well have been somewhat stronger if there had been full compliance with the allocated treatments). Overall survival would be comparably improved, since these treatments have relatively small effects on mortality from the aggregate of all other causes.Interpretation Some of the widely practicable adjuvant drug treatments that were being tested in the 1980s, which substantially reduced 5-year recurrence rates (but had somewhat less effect on 5-year mortality rates), also substantially reduce 15-year mortality rates. Further improvements in long-term survival could well be available from newer drugs, or better use of older drugs.

__Background:__ In early breast cancer, variations in local treatment that substantially affect the risk of locoregional recurrence could also affect long-term breast cancer mortality. To examine this relationship, collaborative metaanalyses were undertaken, based on individual patient data, of the relevant randomised trials that began by 1995. __Methods:__ Information was available on 42 000 women in 78 randomised treatment comparisons (radiotherapy vs no radiotherapy, 23 500; more vs less surgery, 9300; more surgery vs radiotherapy, 9300). 24 types of local treatment comparison were identified. To help relate the effect on local (ie, locoregional) recurrence to that on breast cancer mortality, these were grouped according to whether or not the 5-year local recurrence risk exceeded 10% (10%, 25 000 women). __Findings:__ About three-quarters of the eventual local recurrence risk occurred during the first 5 years. In the comparisons that involved little (10%) differences, however, 5-year local recurrence risks were 7% active versus 26% control (absolute reduction 19%), and 15-year breast cancer mortality risks were 44·6% versus 49·5% (absolute reduction 5·0%, SE 0·8, 2p<0·00001).

Background There have been many randomised trials of adjuvant prolonged polychemotherapy among women with early breast cancer, and an updated overview of their results is presented.Methods In 1995, information was sought on each woman in any randomised trial that began before 1990 and involved treatment groups that differed only with respect to the chemotherapy regimens that were being compared. Analyses involved about 18 000 women in 47 trials of prolonged polychemotherapy versus no chemotherapy, about 6000 in 11 trials of longer versus shorter polychemotherapy, and about 6000 in 11 trials of anthracycline-containing regimens versus CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil).Findings For recurrence, polychemotherapy produced substantial and highly significant proportional reductions both among women aged under 50 at randomisation (35% [SD 4] reduction; 2p<0.00001) and among those aged 50-69 (20% [SD 3] reduction; 2p<0.00001); few women aged 70 or over had been studied. For mortality, the reductions were also significant both among women aged under 50 (27% [SD 5] reduction; 2p<0.00001) and among those aged 50-69 (11% [SD 3] reduction; 2p=0.0001). The recurrence reductions emerged chiefly during the first 5 years of follow-up, whereas the difference in survival grew throughout the first 10 years. After standardisation for age and time since randomisation, the proportional reductions in risk were similar for women with node-negative and node-positive disease. Applying the proportional mortality reduction observed in all women aged under 50 at randomisation would typically change a 10-year survival of 71% for those with node-negative disease to 78% (an absolute benefit of 7%), and of 42% for those with node-positive disease to 53% (an absolute benefit of 11%). The smaller proportional mortality reduction observed in all women aged 50-69 at randomisation would translate into smaller absolute benefits, changing a 10-year survival of 67% for those with node-negative disease to 69% (an absolute gain of 2%) and of 46% for those with node-positive disease to 49% (an absolute gain of 3%). The age-specific benefits of polychemotherapy appeared to be largely irrespective of menopausal status at presentation, oestrogen receptor status of the primary tumour, and of whether adjuvant tamoxifen had been given. In terms of other outcomes, there was a reduction of about one-fifth (2p=0.05) in contralateral breast cancer, which has already been included in the analyses of recurrence, and no apparent adverse effect on deaths from causes other than breast cancer (death rate ratio 0.89 [SD 0.09]). The directly randomised comparisons of longer versus shorter durations of polychemotherapy did not indicate any survival advantage with the use of more than about 3-6 months of polychemotherapy. By contrast, directly randomised comparisons did suggest that, compared with CMF alone, the anthracycline-containing regimens studied produced somewhat greater effects on recurrence (2p=0.006) and mortality (69% vs 72% 5-year survival; log-rank 2p=0.02). But this comparison is one of many that could have been selected for emphasis, the 99% CI reaches zero, and the results of several of the relevant trials are not yet available.Interpretation Some months of adjuvant polychemotherapy (eg, with CMF or an anthracycline-containing regimen) typically produces an absolute improvement of about 7-11% in 10-year survival for women aged under 50 at presentation with early breast cancer, and of about 2-3% for those aged 50-69 (unless their prognosis is likely to be extremely good even without such treatment). Treatment decisions involve consideration not only of improvements in cancer recurrence and survival but also of adverse side-effects of treatment, and this report makes no recommendations as to who should or should not be treated.

Among women with early breast cancer, the effects of ovarian ablation on recurrence and death have been assessed by several randomised trials that now have long follow-up. In this report, the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group present their third 5-yearly systematic overview (meta-analysis), now with 15 years' follow-up.In 1995, information was sought on each patient in any randomised trial of ovarian ablation or suppression versus control that began before 1990. Data were obtained for 12 of the 13 studies that assessed ovarian ablation by irradiation or surgery, all of which began before 1980, but not for the four studies that assessed ovarian suppression by drugs, all of which began after 1985. Menopausal status was not consistently defined across trials; therefore, the main analyses are limited to women aged under 50 (rather than "premenopausal") when randomised. Oestrogen receptors were measured only in the trials of ablation plus cytotoxic chemotherapy versus the same chemotherapy alone.Among 2102 women aged under 50 when randomised, most of whom would have been premenopausal at diagnosis, 1130 deaths and an additional 153 recurrences were reported. 15-year survival was highly significantly improved among those allocated ovarian ablation (52.4 vs 46.1%, 6.3 [SD 2.3] fewer deaths per 100 women, logrank 2p = 0.001), as was recurrence-free survival (45.0 vs 39.0%, 2p = 0.0007). The numbers of events were too small for any subgroup analyses to be reliable. The benefit was, however, significant both for those with ("node positive") and for those without ("node negative") axillary spread when diagnosed. In the trials of ablation plus cytotoxic chemotherapy versus the same chemotherapy alone, the benefit appeared smaller (even for women with oestrogen receptors detected on the primary tumour) than in the trials of ablation in the absence of chemotherapy (where the observed survival improvements were about six per 100 node-negative women and 12 per 100 node-positive women). Among 1354 women aged 50 or over when randomised, most of whom would have been perimenopausal or postmenopausal, there was only a nonsignificant improvement in survival and recurrence-free survival.In women aged under 50 with early breast cancer, ablation of functioning ovaries significantly improves long-term survival, at least in the absence of chemotherapy. Further randomised evidence is needed on the additional effects of ovarian ablation in the presence of other adjuvant treatments, and to assess the relevance of hormone-receptor measurements.

Background. Randomized trials of radiotherapy and surgery for early breast cancer may have been too small to detect differences in long-term survival and recurrence reliably. We therefore performed a systematic overview (meta-analysis) of the results of such trials.Methods. Information was sought on each subject from investigators who conducted trials that began before 1985 and that compared local therapies for early breast cancer. Data on mortality were available from 36 trials comparing radiotherapy plus surgery with the same type of surgery alone, 10 comparing more-extensive surgery with less-extensive surgery, and 18 comparing more-extensive surgery with less-extensive surgery plus radiotherapy. Information on mortality was available for 28,405 women (97.4 percent of the 29,175 women in the trials).Results. The addition of radiotherapy to surgery resulted in a rate of local recurrence that was three times lower than the rate with surgery alone, but there was no significant difference in 10-year survival; among a total of 17,273 women enrolled in such trials, mortality was 40.3 percent with radiotherapy and 41.4 percent without radiotherapy (P=0.3). Radiotherapy was associated with a reduced risk of death due to breast cancer (odds ratio, 0.94; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.00; P=0.03), which indicates that, after 10 years, there would be about 0 to 5 fewer deaths due to breast cancer per 100 women. However, there was an increased risk of death from other causes (odds ratio, 1.24; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.42; P=0.002). This, together with the age-specific death rates, implies, after 10 years, a few extra deaths not due to breast cancer per 100 older women or per 1000 younger women, During the first decade or two after diagnosis, the excess in the rate of such deaths that was associated with radiotherapy was much greater among women who were over 60 years of age at randomization (15.3 percent vs. 11.1 percent [339 vs. 249 deaths]) than among those under 50 (2.5 percent vs. 2.0 percent [62 vs. 49 deaths]). Breast-conserving surgery involved some risk of recurrence in the remaining tissue, but no significant differences in overall survival at 10 years were found in the studies of mastectomy versus breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy (4891 women), more-extensive surgery versus less-extensive surgery (4818 women), or axillary clearance versus radiotherapy as adjuncts to mastectomy (4370 women).Conclusions. Some of the local therapies for breast cancer had substantially different effects on the rates of local recurrence - such as the reduced recurrence with the addition of radiotherapy to surgery - but there were no definite differences in overall survival at 10 years.