Summary1. With world‐wide changes in human land use, an important challenge for conservation biologists is to develop frameworks to predict how species will respond to landscape change. Environmental filtering, where different environments favour different species’ traits, has the potential to be a useful predictive framework. Therefore, it is important to advance our understanding of how species with different traits respond to environmental variables.2. We investigated the distribution of microbats in a 1 000 000 ha agricultural region in southeastern Australia, with specific emphasis on the effects of tree density on bat species characterized by different sizes, wing shapes and echolocation frequencies. The study area is substantially cleared, and trees are continuing to decline because grazing inhibits tree regeneration. We monitored bat activity acoustically at 80 sites spanning a wide range of tree densities. We used regression modelling to quantify the response of bats to tree density and other ecological covariates, and RLQ analysis to assess how different traits correlated with various environmental gradients.3. Total bat activity and species richness peaked at intermediate tree densities. Species composition was explained by tree density and the traits of individual species. Sites with low tree cover were dominated by large, fast‐flying species, whereas sites with dense tree cover were dominated by smaller, highly manoeuvrable species. These findings are consistent with recent findings from other locations around the world.4. Synthesis and applications. Trait‐based predictive frameworks enable landscape managers to assess how different management strategies and landscape modifications are likely to affect different species. Here, we propose a framework to derive general predictions of how bats respond to landscape modification, based on tree density and species traits. We apply this framework to a current conservation issue of tree decline in our study area and derive management priorities including: (i) maintaining a range of tree densities throughout the region; (ii) ensuring the persistence of locations with intermediate tree densities; and (iii) using environmentally sensitive grazing practices, for example, by incorporating long rest periods.

The temperate grazing region of southeastern Australia is experiencing a rapid decline in tree cover that threatens key ecosystem functions. Graziers are stewards of most of the trees remaining outside reserves, and hold the power to reverse the decline. Influencing graziers' decision making about vegetation management requires an understanding of their landscape values. We asked 25 graziers to photograph features they considered significant on their farms. Their choices were analyzed using viewsheds, the spatial delineations of all areas visible in a photograph. Photos taken by landholders depicted woody vegetation more often than would be expected by chance, particularly the isolated and scattered trees that are declining most rapidly. Grazier awareness and appreciation of isolated and scattered trees should be harnessed by policymakers keen to reverse their decline. More generally, our work demonstrates the utility of simultaneously employing photo-elicitation and quantitative viewshed analysis.

P>1. Birds inhabiting farmland are of conservation concern around the world. In Australia, conservation management has focused primarily on woodland environments. By contrast, semi-natural open areas have received less attention. We argue that long-term conservation strategies should consider broad gradients of environmental conditions. Otherwise, there is a risk that semi-natural open areas will degrade through 'benign neglect', and currently common species using these areas will become uncommon.2. We examined how birds responded to three environmental gradients in an Australian livestock grazing landscape: tree density, grazing intensity and nutrient enrichment. First, we investigated changes in species composition across the environmental gradients in multivariate space. Secondly, we modelled species richness and the response of selected individual species in relation to the gradients. Thirdly, we examined if there were patterns in guild composition and body mass distribution.3. Tree density was the primary driver of virtually all patterns observed. Species richness peaked at moderately high tree densities. With increasing tree density, species composition changed, foraging guild composition changed and the median body mass of bird species decreased. Small insectivores were more likely to occur in areas with high tree densities, whereas large granivores were more likely to occur in areas with relatively low tree densities. Grazing intensity and nutrient enrichment were less strongly related to bird distribution patterns, although the indirect effects of these gradients may be substantial because they affect tree regeneration.4. sSynthesis and applications. Relatively dense woodland patches were important for species already of conservation concern, lending support to their active conservation management, for example through livestock exclusion. However, semi-natural open areas also were used by many birds, which represented a different mix of body sizes and foraging guilds. Scattered trees occurring at a range of densities are key habitat elements in semi-natural open areas. However, many scattered trees are dying and are not being replaced by natural regeneration or tree planting. If areas with scattered trees continue to degrade, there is a risk that currently common farmland birds will decline. Management strategies aiming to maintain scattered trees therefore are important, including the planting of individual trees and the adoption of grazing practices that allow for natural tree regeneration.

Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption.

Agriculture and livestock grazing threaten biodiversity around the world. In the grazing landscapes of eastern Australia, a common conservation strategy has been to exclude livestock from large patches of trees (typically > 5 ha). This has major local benefits, but is unlikely to stem regional biodiversity loss. Using a case study from the Upper Lachlan catchment in New South Wales, we show that (1) approximately 30% of tree cover occurs as very small patches or scattered trees; (2) large patches have disappeared from 90% of the landscape; and (3) large patches are 3.5 times more likely to be in unproductive upland areas than in lowland areas of high conservation concern. Given the limitations of focusing on large patches of trees to achieve regional conservation outcomes, the next generation of conservation initiatives should consider a new suite of additional measures that could deliver biodiversity benefits across broad areas of the region. Two key measures that must be considered are new incentives for farmers to alter livestock grazing practices and reduce fertilizer use.

Scattered trees are declining in agricultural landscapes worldwide. They are considered keystone structures because their effect on ecosystem functioning is believed to be disproportionate relative to the small area occupied by any individual tree. We empirically demonstrate the disproportionate value of scattered trees for birds and bats in an Australian livestock grazing landscape. We surveyed birds at 108 sites and bats at 63 sites. Sites spanned the full range of tree densities in the study area, from zero to over 100 trees per hectare. The marginal value of individual trees was highest when trees occurred at low densities. Compared to treeless sites, bird richness doubled with the presence of the first tree; bat richness tripled with the presence of 3–5 trees; and bat activity increased by a factor of 100 with the presence of 3–5 trees. Thereafter, the marginal effect of additional trees on birds and bats diminished rapidly. Although specialist species were restricted to large areas of dense tree cover, scattered trees effectively maintained moderate levels of bird and bat activity throughout largely cleared parts of the landscape. Future management activities should recognize the disproportionate value of scattered trees.

Common aims of habitat studies are to differentiate between (i) suitable and unsuitable sites for a given species, and (ii) sites used by different communities of species. To quantify differences between sites, field data of site use must be precise enough that true underlying between-site variability is not masked by within-site measurement error. We designed a pilot study to guide the development of a survey protocol for a habitat study on bats in an agricultural landscape in southeastern Australia. Three woodland sites and two scattered tree sites of 2 ha each were surveyed for nine consecutive nights. At three locations within each site (spaced > 50 m apart) one or two Anabat detectors were mounted 1 m above ground or in a tree (2 m above ground). We used mixed regression models to quantify multiple sources of variability in bat calling activity, and graphical data analysis to visualise how increases in survey effort were likely to affect inference. For the five most active species, we found that typically over 40% of variability in nightly detections occurred at the between-site level; approximately 10% occurred between locations within sites; approximately 20% was explained by night-to-night differences; and approximately 30% of variability was not attributable to systematic variation within experimental units. Differences in community composition between sites were clearly evident when two or more detectors per site were used for four or more nights. We conclude with six general considerations for the design of effective habitat studies. These are to (i) consider key contrasts of interest; (ii) use data from mild, calm, dry nights only; (iii) calibrate detectors; (iv) use multiple detectors where possible, or move a single detector within a site; (v) survey for multiple nights; and (vi) where vertical differentiation in habitat use is likely, mount detectors at different heights. These considerations need to be balanced within the context of financial and logistical constraints.

Global food demand is growing rapidly. Livestock grazing can provide a valuable source of protein, but conventional grazing is often unsustainable. We studied an 800,000-ha section of a threatened ecoregion in southeastern Australia. Conventional management in the region involves continuous livestock grazing with few rest periods and regular fertilizer application. By using remotely sensed data on tree cover and extensive field data on livestock grazing regimes, soil chemistry, tree diameters, and tree regeneration, we show that the region is facing a tree regeneration crisis. Under conventional management, across the region, millions of hectares of land currently supporting tens of millions of trees will be treeless within decades from now. This would have severe negative ramifications for biodiversity and key ecosystem services, including water infiltration and shade provision for livestock. However, we identified an unexpected win-win solution for tree regeneration and commercial grazing. A relatively new practice in the region is fast-rotational grazing, characterized by prolonged rest periods in between short, intensive grazing events. The probability of regeneration under fast-rotational grazing was up to 4-fold higher than under conventional grazing, and it did not differ significantly from the probability of regeneration in ungrazed areas. In addition, trees were more likely to regenerate where soil nutrient levels were low. These findings suggest that the tree regeneration crisis can be reversed by applying low-input, fast-rotational grazing. New policy settings supporting these practices could signal a turning point for the region, from ecological decline to ecological recovery.