PurposeThis study aims to develop a generalizable machine learning pipeline that uses only two-dimensional (2D) data to predict building characteristics, specifically construction year and floor space. This addresses the data gaps in building stock models, which are crucial for developing localized greenhouse gas emissions mitigation strategies.Design/methodology/approachUsing a novel, national-level building registry dataset from Sweden, we trained machine learning classification models to predict construction year and regression models to predict floor space. The models were developed using only 2D building attributes, avoiding the need for 3D data, which is often unavailable at large geographic scales.FindingsThe result shows that the best-performing classification model achieves a precision measured as Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC) of 0.823 and the best-performing regression model achieves an R2 of 0.789. These results demonstrate that a 2D-based approach is sufficient for accurately predicting building characteristics.Originality/valueThis study reveals that imputing missing building attribute data does not require height data. By relying exclusively on widely available 2D data, the proposed machine learning pipeline could overcome the data limitations of previous studies. By demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach on a national-level dataset, this study improves the generalizability of building stock models and provides a scalable solution for estimating building characteristics at larger geographic scales.

Current strategies to reduce the climate impact of production and consumption are insufficient to meet the pressing targets of the Paris Agreement. To expand visions of the possible ‘solution space’ in climate transitions, we explore a framework based on two dichotomies centred around the role of labour and the composition of economic output. From these dichotomies we sketch out four pathways for a future low-carbon society: Green growth, Care economy, Degrowth and Green accelerationism. Using a stylized representation of the Swedish economy as a case, we explore possible changes in the economic structure following the different pathways with respect to labour inputs, production volumes, GHG emissions and resource use in different sectors. The pathways suggest different strategies and overarching logics for decarbonisation. The results indicate that the technological emphasis in prevalent green growth strategies is not sufficient to stay within a carbon budget in line with the Paris agreement. Depending on the pathway taken, the upholding of social welfare, reassessing the role of labour and shifting production and consumption patterns become key challenges. Overall, key insights indicate that swift, radical transformation can advance climate goal attainment but also demands major societal reorganisation. The results also illustrate how the different transformation pathways entail distinct trade-offs, each associated with its own set of advantages and challenges.

Dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) is widely used to study the material demands of residential building stocks. In most of the studies conducted to date, buildings are modeled as homogeneous units instead of a system of components. A limitation of this assumption is that the material flow dynamics from renovations cannot be fully captured. In this study, we develop a cohort-based, layered dMFA framework that explicitly links renovation lifetimes to structural lifetimes, while allowing for different building layers to be renovated independently. This framework tracks the temporal evolution of building cohorts and applies a lifetime convolution approach to ensure that renovation probabilities are conditional on building survival. Cohort-specific material intensities are further differentiated across structural, skin, and space layers. We apply the framework to residential buildings in Sweden using a unique set of building inventory and disaggregated material intensity data. Compared with conventional monolithic renovation models, the layered lifetime approach reduces the estimated renovated floor area by approximately 10

Cement, a crucial material in the construction industry, contributes about 8 % of global greenhouse gas emissions. While substituting clinker with supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) is a key mitigation measure, SCM availability is expected to decline. In this work, a 2023-2050 scenario analysis predicts a decline in the supply of common SCMs in the EU, with fly ash supply decreasing from 8.5 Mt in 2025 to 1.9-2.7 Mt in 2035 and 0-1.1 Mt in 2045, and granulated blast furnace slag supply decreasing from 18 to 19 Mt in 2025 to 6.9-11.4 Mt in 2035 and 0-3.2 Mt in 2045. Thus, the supply of conventional SCMs will be insufficient to meet demand, even if demand for ordinary Portland cement is assumed to decline significantly in 2025-2045. Efforts to develop the production and logistics of alternatives in order to sustain a lower clinker-to-cement ratio are therefore needed.

The implementation of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies in the cement industry is crucial for achieving near-zero emissions. However, CCS remains capital-intensive, with high operational costs, and faces significant market, investment, and infrastructure coordination barriers. Its deployment also depends on national and regional regulatory frameworks, given the need for COQ capture, transport, and storage. This study assesses the European Union's (EU) readiness to implement CCS in the cement sector. Results indicate that the EU-27 cement industry could transition to near-zero emissions within a timeline aligned with EU climate targets, assuming: (i) the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) price rises in line with projections under the Fit for 55 package, and (ii) sufficient COQ storage capacity is made available. The findings underscore the need for complementary policy measures and CCS-specific regulatory frameworks to facilitate deployment. Although early and rapid implementation of CCS could deliver substantial climate benefits, it also poses challenges, including shortages of contractors, expertise, and materials. Moreover, historical investment patterns suggest that the required scale and pace of deployment would be unprecedented. While the EU has laid a strong foundation for the cement industry's transition, CCS deployment potential differs among Member States, depending on the geographic distribution of cement plants and proximity to storage sites. National regulatory variations further complicate deployment. These factors must be addressed to enable a successful shift to near-zero emissions practices in the EU cement industry.

There are currently insufficient policy incentives for most producers of basic materials across Europe to invest in low-emissions technologies. This paper explores a novel approach to financing the investments required to accelerate the transition towards zero-emissions practices. To engage non-state actors in this process, and to formalise cross-sectorial collaboration, we explore the establishment of a Value Chain Transition Fund (VCTF). We use the European cement and steel industries as case studies. The VCTF, funded through a premium imposed on basic materials incorporated into end-products, would be used to finance investments in transformative technologies needed to meet emissions cuts along CO2-intensive supply chains, such as carbon capture on cement and steel plants and hydrogen direct reduction steel production. Our results show that the VCTF ensures that overnight investments and operational expenditures needed for carbon capture in the European cement and steel industries can be recouped in 6-8 and 2-6 years respectively, and for steel produced with hydrogen direct reduction it can be recouped in 3-16 years. The VCTF results in an increase in consumer prices of 0.2%-1.1% in the case of a passenger electric vehicle, and an increase of 0.3%-0.6% in production costs in the case of a highspeed railway, as examples of representative end products.

Historically, the basic materials industry has had relatively low R D expenditure levels, raising concerns about meeting 2050 climate targets given the crucial need for innovation and technology advancement in this industry. Decisive government intervention and active support for key technological pathways are required to address significant market failures and catalyse industrial decarbonisation. This Essay lays out the economic justification for an active green industrial policy and proposes key policy design principles, with the aim of striking a balance between facilitating the green industrial transition and maintaining cost efficiency in meeting climate targets.

Material flow analysis is an important tool for estimating material flows and embedded emissions of transport infrastructure. Missing attributes tend to be a major barrier to accurate estimates. In this study a machine learning model is developed to estimate the missing data in a statistics dataset of roads, to enable a bottom-up material stock and flow analysis. The proposed approach was applied to the Swedish road network to predict missing data for road width in the statistical dataset. The predicted hybrid dataset was then used to estimate material stocks, flows, and embodied emissions from Year 2020 to Year 2045 using decarbonization scenarios with a supply chain perspective. The study demonstrates that machine learning models can be used to enable national-level material stock and flow analyses of roads. Multiple machine learning algorithms were tested, and the best performing model achieved an R2 value of 0.784. In the scenario-based analysis, the embodied emissions of Swedish roads could be reduced by up to 51% using available materials.

EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and 50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of the EU ETS on the shipping sector's potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures and the impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative estimates (based on data from the EU monitoring, reporting and verification system) with qualitative data and information from interviews with key actors and from previous literature. This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of the EU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significant incentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at an emissions allowance price of euro90-100/tCO2 will be cost-effective for a minor share of shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a price above euro150/tCO2 it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially 75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed on to transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properly addressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shipping may occur in the roll-on, roll-off (RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segments due to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease of shifting to other modes of transport. Integrating shipping into the EU ETS is an important step towards reducing GHG emissions in the sector but also will reduce emissions of NOX, SOX, and PM.CO2 emissions from shipping constitute about 8% of GHG emissions from all sectors in the EU ETS.The need to purchase allowances will increase operating costs, which will initially be passed on to transport customers as a surcharge.Interviews confirm that a modal shift away from shipping to road and rail may occur in the RoRo and RoPax segments.Switching to bio-methanol may be cost-effective mainly for some ships in the RoRo, RoPax and reefer segments at an allowance price below euro100/tCO2, while for most ships (about 85-100% of ships) it will be cost-effective above euro200/tCO2.

Abstract National emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement have a territorial focus, incentivizing mitigation actions domestically. Here we scrutinize the theoretical basis for adopting complementary consumption-based net-zero emission targets and assess the consequences of adopting such proposed targets for Sweden. We apply scenario analyses based on a prospective lifecycle assessment framework. The framework is a hybrid between bottom-up simulations – for passenger travel, construction and housing, and food – and top-down analyses covering remaining consumption. In this work, we show how consumption-based climate targets accentuate the need for new demand-side climate policies that contribute to reducing emissions along value chains of products and services. Combining advanced mitigation technologies with behavioral changes could achieve emission reductions from 9.8 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per capita in 2019 to between 2.7 and 4.8 tons by 2045 for Swedish residents, depending on global decarbonization pathways.

Meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement will require rapid and deep reductions of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) across all sectors of the global economy. Like all major societal transformations, this climate transition will impact both social and technical aspects of society and, depending on how it evolves, will reallocate social and economic benefits and costs differently. Recognising the importance of decarbonising key industry sectors with large GHG emissions and an significant impact on society, this study explores the opportunities and tensions involved in a transition of the petrochemical industry. We do so by analysing how access to natural resources, the petrochemical industry's role in the economy and the socio-political landscape in key petrochemical producing countries impacts prerequisites for change. The assessment shows that devising adequate policy responses, building legitimacy for change and potentially building bottom-up pressure for a timely climate transition are likely to look very different in the 10 countries with the greatest active petrochemical capacity in the world: China, the United States, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Russia, Iran, Germany and Taiwan. The indicators used to explore the prerequisites for change all point to areas where actions and policies must advance for a transition to be realised. This includes efforts to cap fossil feedstock supply and production capacity, efforts to limit and ultimately reduce demand for plastics and fertilisers, and measures to formulate transition strategies and policies that capture and provide agency for communities and groups that are currently on the receiving end of negative health and environmental impacts from the petrochemical industry and that will also, in many cases, be most closely affected by a transition.

The expanding petrochemical industry depends on fossil fuels both as feedstock and a source of energy and is at the heart of the intertwined global crises relating to plastics, climate, and toxic emissions. Addressing these crises requires uprooting the deep-seated lock-ins that sustain petrochemical plastics. This perspective identifies lock-ins that stand in the way of ambitious emission reductions and ending plastic pollution. We emphasize that addressing the growing plastic production and consumption requires confronting the political economy of petrochemicals. We put forward key elements needed to address the dual challenges of moving away from the unsustainable production of plastics and drastically reducing emissions from the petrochemical sector and argue for attention to the links between fossil fuels and plastics, which in turn involves challenging entrenched power structures and vested interests linked to the fossil-based plastics economy. A critical step would be ensuring attention to the production of petrochemicals and related upstream issues in the upcoming global plastics treaty.

Abstract Hydrogen could play an important role in reducing the climate impact of the transport sector. This study explores the possibility of using existing biomethane infrastructure to enable the accelerated roll‐out of hydrogen as a transport fuel in a Swedish context. The concept of multifuel filling stations for hydrogen and biomethane are examined based on four cases, where the hydrogen is produced either via electrolysis or biomethane reforming, at a smaller or larger scale, and through either centralised or decentralised production. The cases are compared using established life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to establish their respective impact from a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation potential. The LCA results show generally good GHG performance for all production paths being studied with a range from −7 g CO2 eq./MJ hydrogen for hydrogen production based on biomethane via steam reformation (SMR) compared to +19 g CO2 eq. for production based on Swedish National Grid Mix via electrolyser. The SMR is the more efficient technology in mitigating GHG emissions, especially if system expansion is applied. In addition, sensitivity analyses also show that electrolyses production based on renewable wind power will decrease the impact significantly and vice versa that a European Average Electricity Grid Mix (EU – 28) would increase the impact significantly. The findings of this study underline the potential of the gradual introduction of hydrogen as a fuel for transport without the need for large investments in a dedicated fuel‐specific distribution system. The concept could contribute to overcoming the current chicken‐and‐egg catch of achieving both scalable and profitable supply of hydrogen for transport as well as the vehicles using it as fuel.

National emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement have a territorial focus, incentivizing mitigation actions domestically. Here we examine the theoretical basis for adopting complementary consumption-based net-zero emission targets and assess the consequences of adopting such proposed targets for Sweden. We apply scenario analyses based on a prospective lifecycle assessment framework. The framework is a hybrid of bottom-up simulations for passenger travel, construction and housing, and food, and top-down analyses for remaining consumption. In this work, we show how consumption-based climate targets may accentuate the need for new demand-side climate policies that contribute to reducing emissions along supply chains of products and services. Our scenario analysis suggests that combining advanced mitigation technologies with behavioral changes could reduce emissions from 9.8 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per capita in 2019 to between 2.7 and 4.8 tons by 2045 for Swedish residents, depending on global decarbonization pathways.

In this paper, we define indicators, with a focus on the electricity sector, that translate the results of energy systems modelling to quantitative entities that can facilitate assessments of the transitions required to meet stringent climate targets. Such indicators, which are often overlooked in model scenario presentations, can be applied to make the modelling results more accessible and are useful for managing the transition on the policy level, as well as for internal evaluations of modelling results. We propose a set of 13 indicators related to: 1) the resource and material usages in modelled energy system designs; 2) the rates of transition from current to future energy systems; and 3) the energy security in energy system modelling results. To illustrate its value, the proposed set of indicators is applied to energy system scenarios derived from an electricity system investment model for Northern Europe. We show that the proposed indicators are useful for facilitating discussions, raising new questions, and relating the modelling results to Sustainable Development Goals and thus facilitate better policy processes. The indicators presented here should not be seen as a complete set, but rather as examples. Therefore, this paper represents a starting point and a call to other modellers to expand and refine the list of indicators.

The construction sector accounts for approximately 25% of global CO2 emissions. In this paper, we provide a multidimensional assessment of the potential for greenhouse gas emissions abatement in relation to the construction of multi-family residential buildings. Different building designs are compared, whereby the study analyzes the potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions when combining abatement measures with a perspective of the technologies and practices available now, and those that are likely to become available on a timescale up to Year 2045. Further, the assessment analyzes the potential for emissions reductions when applying abatement measures at different points in the supply chain, from primary material production via material composition to the final building structure. The results indicate that the greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by up to 40% with currently available technologies and practices, with even greater potential reductions of 80% to Year 2030 and 93% to Year 2045.

The Green Steel Tracker aims to support decision makers in policy and industry, academia as well as civil society, by tracking public announcements of low-carbon investments in the steel industry and presenting them transparently in one place.

Pulp mills, as large biogenic CO 2 point sources, could adopt Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) through retrofitting carbon capture. These existing carbon sources constitute a great potential to roll out BECCS on commercial scale. Yet, despite political targets for negative emission production in Sweden, no incentive schemes were thus far enacted. While previous proposals focus on governmental compensation, the aim of this work is to set BECCS into the supply chain of a wide array of consumer products and thereby find alternative or complementary, business-driven, ways to incentivise BECCS when applied to the pulp and paper industry. In this work, we assess a “value proposition” for low-carbon products in supply chains linked to the pulp and paper industry. By projecting the costs and negative emissions related to BECCS from the pulp mill to typical consumer products, as exemplified by three case study products, we show how BECCS can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of the consumer products, while only marginally increasing their cost. Additional price premiums could shorten the payback period of the initial investment in BECCS. The developed business case presents how actors along the supply chain for pulp and paper products can collectively contribute to securing financing and to mitigating investment risks. The results challenge the private sector, i.e., the companies along the pulp-and-paper supply chain to commit considerable investments also in the case without or with too weak direct political incentives. We conclude by discussing the governance implications on corporate and public level to enable the collaborative “bottom-up” adoption of BECCS.