Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue -reported stumpage prices and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices indicated that all thinnings were economically feasible and that net present value was maximized by initiating thinning at age 40. Revenue estimates derived from estimated harvesting costs and delivered prices revealed that thinning at age 40 yielded the lowest net present value due to high harvesting costs and negative first-entry cash flows. Stumpage-based revenue estimates also were very unstable and highly dependent upon the sawtimber utilization assumptions of the economic analysis. The results show that integrating harvesting cost models with growth-and-yield simulatars can provide more stable and reliable revenue estimates over the wide range of harvesting conditions xequired to evaluate forest management alternatives.

The potential value increase of individual trees is an important factor in planning effective forest management strategies. Similar to other investments, trees with high potential value increase are retained and allowed to grow, and those with relatively low potential value increase are harvested so that the proceeds may earn a higher rate of return elsewhere. Tree grade is used to assess the quality and value of wood within a tree; thus, projecting tree grade is an integral part of estimating potential value increase. This study measured the accuracy of projected tree grades over a period of 12-15 years for 588 black cherry, 404 northern red oak, 167 red maple, 191 white and chestnut oaks, and 450 yellow-poplar sawtimber trees in both thinned and unthinned stands. Projected grade was based on surface defects and percent volume deductions for sweep, crook, and rot at the time of the projection with the assumption that the threshold dbh for the highest possible grade would be reached in the future. This approach allows the forest manager to make grade projections based on what is visible and measurable on the tree, even if the tree is currently too small to qualify for higher grades. In general, grade projections were somewhat accurate, with 9% of trees higher than the projected grade, 80% projected correctly, and 11% lower than the projected grade. Trees that had a lower-than-projected grade usually exhibited additional deductions for percent cull volume and/or new epicormic branches. Grade projections were less accurate for larger, higher-quality trees because requirements for the top grade are more constraining and sensitive to changes in butt log characteristics than lower grades. For black cherry and northern red oak, grade projections in thinned stands were less accurate compared with unthinned stands because of resulting logging wounds or new epicormic branches.

The red maple resource in the northeastern United States has exhibited dramatic gains in the past 3 decades in terms of stem numbers and net volume. Growing stock and sawtimber volumes have displayed extraordinary growth compared to other species, and red maple is replacing important market species that have historically been used in the Northeast. The increase in red maple has salient implications for foresters, primary and secondary manufacturers, and wood technologists. Data from the USDA Forest Service's (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis program were used to provide a regional assessment of the red maple resource. The analysis includes the location, concentration, volume, quality, and current utilization of red maple in the USFS's 13-state Northeastern Region. Study results indicate red maple is a significant and increasing component of northeastern forests, with Pennsylvania, New York, and Maine holding the largest volumes of red maple. Red maple, expressed as a percentage of USFS hardwood tree grades, is distributed primarily in grades 3 and lower. Finally, development of innovative markets and novel products, understanding consumers via consumer behavior research, and innovative silvicultural treatments will be required to increase the utilization of red maple.

A statewide logging-in-progress study was conducted in West Virginia to examine the associations among several ground skidding and harvested stand attributes. There was a strong positive association between skidding distance and cycle time, and a significant negative relationship between the percent of trees removed in the stand and total cycle time. The number of residual trees per acre and number of trees per acre in the preharvest stand were not significant in explaining total skidding cycle time. In addition, the number of trees and volume skidded per cycle were positively associated with cycle time, as was the number of turn bunching moves. Additional results suggested that differences in operator behavior may be more important in explaining the size of payloads per cycle than, for example, the size of the skidder used.

This study examined the interrelationship in prices of eight hardwood species using descriptive analysis and the Johansen method for testing cointegration. The descriptive analysis found that the lumber prices of the various hardwood species seem to follow independent trends largely due to changing domestic and international markets. Still, there might be a substitution mechanism that keeps prices of various species close to one another over the long run which may be revealed using cointegration. The cointegration analysis revealed that prices for various species of hardwood lumber are not cointegrated. However, there were several situations in which cointegration was found. Prices of high-grade lumber of all eight species examined were cointegrated with the price of black walnut. Prices of open-grained species were found to be cointegrated with one another. The price of yellow-poplar prices also were found to be cointegrated with several open- and closed-grained species.

Various taper systems and the centroid method were compared to unbiased volume estimates made by importance sampling for 720 hardwood trees selected throughout the state of West Virginia. Only the centroid method consistently gave volumes estimates that did not differ significantly from those made by importance sampling, although some taper equations did well for most species. North. J. Appl. For. 19(3):141-142.

A time study was conducted to evaluate the productivity and cost of a feller-buncher operating in a Central Appalachian hardwood forest. The sites harvested during observation consisted of primarily red maple and black cherry. Trees felled in the study had an average diameter at breast height (DBH) of 16.1 in. and a total merchantable height of 16 ft. A Timbco 445C Hydro-buncher was used in conjunction with manual topping and delimbing with a Husqvarna 55 chain saw. Hourly productivity ranged from 428.9 to 2267.7 ft3 per productive machine hour (PMH) for the feller-buncher and 178 to 2186 ft3/PMH for the top/delimber. Hourly costs were estimated to be $99.68/PMH for the feller-buncher and $28.23/PMH for the top/delimber. Estimated average costs of$0.08/ft3 for the feller-buncher and $0.04/ft3 for the top/delimber were derived, based on these production estimates.

It is well established that silvicultural thinning can increase tree growth and wood volume utilization in hardwood stands, but the effects on tree quality and value are less clear. This study measured the effect of silvicultural thinning on tree grades over a period of 12 to 15 years for 803 black cherries (Prunus serotina, Ehrh.), 424 northern red oaks (Quercus rubra, L.), 180 red maples (Acer rubrum, L.), 235 trees in the white oak group (Q. spp.), and 494 yellow-poplars (Liriodendron tulipifera, L.). Grade distributions of trees >9.6 and > 12.6 in. diameter at breast height (DBH) for black cherry, northern red oak, and yellow-poplar improved after thinning due to the removal of lower quality trees and the increased growth and the retention of high-quality, large-diameter residual trees. Red maple and the white oaks showed no improvement after thinning due to poor overall initial quality. Trees grouped by species, quality, and growth categories did not exhibit a significant increase or decrease in grade due to thinning. However, black cherry and yellow-poplar appeared to increase in grade due to silvical properties such as early branch pruning and fewer epicormic branches. Analysis of grade distributions for groups of species did not produce the same results as analyzing individual species. Mixed-species datasets may obscure species-specific effects of thinning, and species composition may have an appreciable effect on test results.

It is well established that silvicultural thinning can increase tree growth and wood volume utilization in hardwood stands, but the effects on tree quality and value are less clear. This study measured the effect of silvicultural thinning on tree grades over a period of 12 to 15 years for 803 black cherries (Prunus serotina, Ehrh.), 424 northern red oaks (Quercus rubra, L.), 180 red maples (Acer rubrum, L.), 235 trees in the white oak group (Q. spp.), and 494 yellow-poplars (Liriodendron tulipifera, L.). Grade distributions of trees >9.6 and > 12.6 in. diameter at breast height (DBH) for black cherry, northern red oak, and yellow-poplar improved after thinning due to the removal of lower quality trees and the increased growth and the retention of high-quality, large-diameter residual trees. Red maple and the white oaks showed no improvement after thinning due to poor overall initial quality. Trees grouped by species, quality, and growth categories did not exhibit a significant increase or decrease in grade due to thinning. However, black cherry and yellow-poplar appeared to increase in grade due to silvical properties such as early branch pruning and fewer epicormic branches. Analysis of grade distributions for groups of species did not produce the same results as analyzing individual species. Mixed-species datasets may obscure species-specific effects of thinning, and species composition may have an appreciable effect on test results.

The hardwood sawmilling industry has been changing over the last 50 years as a result of changes in hardwood sawtimber inventory and in the demand for hardwood lumber. In 1950 the industry was composed of numerous individual mills, few of which produced more than 3 million board feet of lumber annually. During this time the furniture industry was the major user of higher-grade hardwood lumber. By the early 1990's both the hardwood sawtimber inventory and lumber production had increased by 50 percent and the industry was dominatedby mills producing more than 5 million board feet per year. Furniture manufacturers remained an important user of hardwood lumber but exports of higher-grade lumber increased dramatically. Changes in the demand for hardwood lumber caused mills to concentrate on producing higher-grade lumber, which in turn, increased the demand for higher-grade sawtimber. The combination of increased demand for higher-grade sawtimber, increasing efficiency in hardwood lumber production, and the competitive nature of the hardwood lumber market has reduced the margin between stumpage and lumber cost. In the 1990's the hardwood industry reacted to these reduced margins by becoming even more efficient. Marketing efficiency has increased as the industry shifted from single mill operations to more multiple mill operations. Production also has increased as more mills used high-tech equipment to boost grade yield and reduce labor costs.

The eastern hardwood resource has been shaped by a combination of human and natural disturbances. This impact on the forest resources of West Virginia has been especially dramatic. This resource has changed from a virgin forest dominated white oak, chestnut, spruce, white pine, and hemlock in the late 19th century, to one dominated by red oak in the 1950's, to today's forest with rapidly increasing volumes of yellow-poplar. This paper examines changes in the composition of West Virginia's forests based on the concept of market- based disturbance. This concept assumes that past market activities influence future forest composition, that changes in resource composition can influence near-term derived and consumer demands, and that these changes in demand eventually change forest composition. Of specific interest is how market disturbance has influenced the proportion of red oak, white oak, yellow-poplar, and hard maple in the forests of West Virginia. This paper also examines how the market for timber has adjusted to a-changing forest resource and how market-based disturbance may shape future forests.

Since the mid-1980s, the volume of sawtimber sold by eastern national forests has declined by 55 percent. Factors contributing to this decline include increased recreational demands, political pressures from environmentalists and the adoption of ecosystem management techniques. This paper examines the changes in the sales of roundwood products from 1985 to 1997 for three eastern regions that contain relatively large quantities of hardwood sawtimber: the Lake States, Northern Appalachian Mountains (Northern Mountains), and Southern Appalachian Mountains (Southern Mountains). Although this analysis was concerned primarily with hardwood sawtimber sales, softwood sawtimber and softwood and hardwood pulpwood sales also were examined because all these products are part of national forest timber sales. Although roundwood sales have decreased in all three regions, sales revenue has increased in the Lake States and Northern Mountains regions because roundwood product prices have increased more than sales volumes have decreased. However, the increased revenue in the Lake States emanated from increased pulpwood sales revenues while the increased revenue in the Northern Mountains resulted from increased black cherry sales revenue. The Southern Mountains was the only region that experienced a decline in roundwood sales revenue between 1985 and 1997.

The eastern hardwood resource has been shaped by a combination of human and natural disturbances. This impact on the forest resources of West Virginia has been especially dramatic. This resource has changed from a virgin forest dominated white oak, chestnut, spruce, white pine, and hemlock in the late 19th century, to one dominated by red oak in the 1950's, to today's forest with rapidly increasing volumes of yellow-poplar. This paper examines changes in the composition of West Virginia's forests based on the concept of market- based disturbance. This concept assumes that past market activities influence future forest composition, that changes in resource composition can influence near-term derived and consumer demands, and that these changes in demand eventually change forest composition. Of specific interest is how market disturbance has influenced the proportion of red oak, white oak, yellow-poplar, and hard maple in the forests of West Virginia. This paper also examines how the market for timber has adjusted to a-changing forest resource and how market-based disturbance may shape future forests.

In recent years foresters managing hardwoods in the Southem Appalachians have been investigating a variety of regeneration methods that lead to the development of a The reserved trees that make up the older age class usually meet a variety of objectives such as timber, wildlife food and cover, and aesthetic values. A series of 20 operational cuts in Appalachian hardwood stands was evaluated 2 to 5 years post-logging. Residual stand characteristics such as species composition, density, volume, grade, and damage were investigated to determine the early fate of the reserve trees. Residual stand density across the 20 stands averaged 39 plat, the number of residual trees per acre averaged 47, and the residual stand volume averaged 3,210 bd. ft./ac (Int. W). Most of the residual stands were classified as low-risk (69 percent), and only 8 percent of the trees per ac were either standing dead or blown down 2 to 5 years following the harvest. INTRODUCTION For many years, foresters have recommended the use of clearcutting as a method of regeneration for Central Appalachian hardwoods. Clearcutting, followed by site preparation to remove residual smallor noncommercial stems, results in a high light environment favorable for the regeneration of many commercial species such as yellowpoplar (Liriodendron tulipifera), northern red oak (Quercus rubra), and black cherry (Prunus serotina). However, public dissatisfaction with the aesthetics of clearcutting, coupled with the desire to manage forests for multiple objectives or on an ecosystem basis, have led to the investigation of alternative practices (Bartuska 1994, Heissenbuttel 1996). In recent years, a method of cutting that leaves a light, residual overstory of 15 to 20 codominant trees occupying 10 to 20 ft2 of basal area per ac has emerged. This method has been called deferment cutting (Smith and others 1989), and leads to the development of a stand (Beck 1986). The cut is heavy enough to stimulate seed germination and sprouting so that regeneration resembles, in both species composition and numbers, that which would be expected following clearcutting (Miller and Schuler 1995, Miller and others 1998). The residual overstory trees mitigate the visual impact of the logging, provide a continuing source of seed, provide food and cover for wildlife, and continue to grow into larger and more valuable trees for future harvest. The regeneration eventually develops into a second age class, hence the term two-aged stand. The residual overstory may remain in place for as long as the entire next rotation, typically 80 years, or may be gradually removed along with regular thinnings when the younger age class develops to a merchantable size, typically 40 years. This practice, by current definition, is known as shelterwood-with-reserves. A recent inventory of commercial timber harvests in West Virginia has shown that, while partial cuts are common, planned sheltenvood seed or removal cuts are not (Fajvan and others 1998). In a random survey of 99 harvests, only about 20 percent were associated with a planned silvicultural application. Nevertheless, sheltenvood-withreserves is being used by the U.S. Forest Service Monongahela National Forest, and to a lesser extent on forest industry and private nonindustrial lands. This study was established to investigate the residual stand characteristics and regeneration following 20 such operational cuts on the Monongahela National Forest in West Virginia. This paper will report only the stand-level characteristics, individual tree quality characteristics and regeneration having been reported elsewhere (Johnson and others 1998). METHODS Study Area During 1996,20 tracts were identified on the Monongahela National Forest in West Virginia (table 1). The stands had all received a sheltenvood cut two to five growing seasons prior to measurement. Previous studies have shown that butt log epicormic branches and logging wounds appear within two years after cutting, and change little over the next eight years (Smith and others 1994, Miller 1996); thus, it was felt that an evaluation after two growing seasons would be sufficient to evaluate residual quality. The study tracts were located on four ranger districts, and were part of the ongoing timber sale program on the forest. Tracts ranged from 8 to 33 ac in size and occurred in two physiographic provinces and three forest cover types (table 1). Residual stands were generally left to meet aesthetic, timber, and wildlife objectives. Site preparation, which entailed cutting all stems greater than 1 in dbh, but less than 5 in dbh, was completed during or soon after logging in each Residual Stand Measurements Both stand level and individual tree measurements were made in each In each stand, BAF 10 prism points were systematically established, at a density of one per ac up to a maximum of 25 per All trees 5.0 in dbh and larger were tallied. From the point sampling data, number of trees per ac, basal area per ac, and International % bd. ft. Paper presented at the Tenth Biennial Southern Silvicultural Research Conference, Shreveport, LA, February 16-18, 1999. Professor of Forestry, College of Forestry and Wildlife Resources. Virginia Polytechnic lnstitute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061; Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Parsons, WV 26287; Research Forest Products Technologist, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Morgantown, WV 26505-3101; and Research Forest Products Technologist, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg. VA 24061, respectively. Table I-General description for 20 shelterwood cuts on the Monongahela National Forest Stand Ranger District Greenbrier Greenbrier Greenbrier Greenbrier Greenbrier Greenbrier Greenbrier Greenbrier Greenbrier Potomac Potomac Potomac Potomac Potomac

Abstract Partial cutting to develop two-age stands is a relatively new practice in the central Appalachian region, and forest managers need quantitative information in order to evaluate how well it meets management objectives. Typically, this practice leaves a residual overstory of 10 to 40 ft² per ac of basal area and leads to regeneration of desirable shade-intolerant species which comprise the second age class. In this study we evaluated residual tree quality and regeneration 2 to 5 yr after cutting in 20 stands on the Monongahela National Forest in West Virginia. Tree grades were not significantly affected by the cutting. The largest grade reductions, due primarily to epicormic branching and logging wounds, occurred with large white oak sawtimber (11%) and white ash small sawtimber (10%). Epicormic branching following the cut was greatest for white oaks in the suppressed and intermediate crown classes. Across all species, the trees in the lower crown classes produced the greatest number of epicormic branches. Overall, epicormic branching on the 16 ft butt logs of dominant and codominant trees was low. For white oak (Quercus alba), 64% of these trees produced no epicormic branches. But 75% of yellow-poplars (Liriodendron tulipifera), 82% of black cherries (Prunus serotina), 78% of northern red oaks (Quercus rubra), and 89% of white ashes (Fraxinus americana) produced no epicormic branches on butt logs. Logging wounds occurred on 45% of the residual trees across the 20 stands, but 21% had large wounds over 100 in². Regeneration of both shade-intolerant and tolerant species was prolific following the cutting. Total numbers of tree seedlings and sprouts ranged from 8,217 stems/ac in the mixed oak stands of the Ridge and Valley Province to 30,845 stems/ac in the beech-cherry-maple stands in the Allegheny Mountains. The birches, primarily sweet birch (Betula lenta), comprised the most abundant species across the study area, but species composition varied depending on forest cover type. Regeneration numbers were lowest in the mixed oak stands in the Ridge and Valley Province. North. J. Appl. For. 15(4):203-210.

Since the mid 1980s, increased public scrutiny of timber sales in national forests and changes in Forest Service policy have resulted in delayed or reduced sales of hardwood sawtimber. As a result, the hardwood industry has become increasingly concerned about future supplies of timber from national forests. On the surface, these concerns seem difficult to understand since national forests contain only 7 percent of the nation's hardwood sawtimber. To determine the validity of these concerns, the relative quality of sawtimber on national forest lands was compared with that on adjacent lands for 41 eastern Forest Service survey units. This analysis found large variations in the relative quantity and quality of hardwood sawtimber on national forests. Many national forests in the Appalachian region have proportionately more high-quality timber than adjacent lands, while the quality of hardwood on national forests in the South appears to be similar to that on private lands. Because of a lack of data entree quality, the proportional volumes of quality timber on public and private lands could not be determined for the Central region.