Background and Objectives To better inform service provision and social services, Australia has long needed a comprehensive national ageing study that is comparable with international ageing studies and eligible to join the register of harmonized cross-national studies of ageing. We conducted a pilot study to fill this gap in Australia's social and health data collection on ageing.Research Design and Methods We utilized online computer-assisted web interviewing (CAWI) and a follow-up Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) screening. Participants were drawn from a Roy Morgan Consumer Panel using random probability sampling. Data collected were compared with the national Census data.Results Among 1172 online CAWI survey participants (mean age: 65.8 years; 51.0% female), 46.8% had a chronic health condition or disability, 26.1% were full-time employed, and 46.8% were fully or partially retired. Compared with 2021 Australian Census data, the sample was broadly representative by age, sex, geographic region, and health, but respondents tended to have higher education levels (66% reported completing secondary schooling vs 42% in the Census) and underrepresented culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds (21% born overseas vs 39%; 4% speak a language other than English at home vs 23%); 804 respondents completed TICS (mean[SD] = 33.6[2.8]; range: 22-41), with 71.4% classified as cognitively normal, 27.7% ambiguous, and 1.1% cognitively impaired.Discussion and Implications This pilot demonstrated the feasibility of online and telephone-based data collection with cognitive screening to capture demographic and health profiles of older Australians, providing a strong foundation for future large-scale national ageing studies.

This study develops a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with heterogeneous households to examine pension reforms in an emerging economy with large informal employment, using Indonesia as our exemplar economy. We calibrate the model with detailed household-level data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, along with macroeconomic and fiscal datasets, to capture the nation’s labour market structure, characterised by high informality. The study assesses the impacts of three key reforms, namely, raising formal workers’ pension access age, introducing a flat-rate social pension for informal labour and an overall reform combining the two. Although a social pension alone (set at 6.5% of per capita GDP) improves informal households’ welfare, it imposes a fiscal burden that reduces formal sector welfare. However, extending formal workforce participation alleviates fiscal pressure. This combined pension reform improves welfare and equity across both worker groups while remaining fiscally feasible.

Little is known about the factors important in explaining the demand for long-term care (LTC) insurance benefits in the context of universal public coverage. In this paper, we utilize data from the 2014-2018 Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging to examine who applies for LTC service benefits in South Korea’s LTC social insurance system. Subjects are community-dwelling adults aged 60 and above. Our research design considers multiple dimensions of health, including physical health, cognitive health, as well as mental health. We also examine whether people’s expectations of receiving care in the future differ depending on their mental well-being. We find that all three dimensions of health are germane to formal LTC demand: specifically, the presence of functional limitations, depressive symptoms, and moderate-severe cognitive impairment are all independently and positively associated with the outcome. Also, those who apply for benefits tend to have greater trust in the scheme administrator and expect care from hired help. Older Koreans who anticipate receiving informal care from a family member are less likely to apply for formal LTC. Notably, this negative association is driven by people’s expectation of spousal care rather than expectation of care from a child or grandchild. We find suggestive evidence that the effects of spousal care expectation on accessing formal LTC services are most pertinent for older persons who are depressed. Policymakers should take into account the various dimensions of older adults’ health status and recognize their heterogeneity in care expectations in estimating future demand for benefit claims in public LTC schemes.

We evaluate the 2011 comprehensive reform of Norwegian early retirement institutions using a parsimonious random utility choice model. Conditional on employment at age 60, we estimate a three-state conditional logit model to explain the realized labor market state at age 63 among the alternatives of employment, retirement, and disability program participation. The reform radically changed work incentives and/or pension access age for some (but not all) workers, such that the influence of economic incentives can be identified based on reform-generated variation only. We find that improved work incentives caused employment rates to rise considerably at the expense of early retirement and exit through disability insurance. Improved liquidity through a lower age to access own pension funds on actuarially neutral terms caused a small increase in employment and a large drop in disability program participation. Properly designed pension reforms thus need to take the interplay between old-age pension and disability insurance programs into account.

Thailand’s aging population has impacted its labor force. This study examines additional health capacity to work (AHCW) with established methods. Data were obtained from the mortality registry as well as national health, aging, labor force, and welfare surveys. Utilizing the Milligan–Wise method, the estimated AHCW for those aged 50–69 was 1.3 years (an 8.7% increase) for males and 1.9 years (17.8%) for females, based on the 2005 employment–mortality relationship. With the Cutler–Meara–Richards-Shubik method, the estimated AHCW for those aged 60–69 in 2015 ranged from 0.9 years (13.6%) to 2.0 years (31.3%) for males and from 1.2 years (23.2%) to 1.5 years (29.6%) for females. We also found that older informal workers in Thailand need to work to maintain their standards of living due to limited retirement benefits. Effective policy measures should be implemented to protect informal workers’ health, prevent pensioners from being impoverished, facilitate a more flexible working environment, and help workers maintain skills and job competencies.

This chapter reviews the current state of knowledge about pension policy and pension policy formulation in emerging economies undergoing demographic transition, and with this background indicates directions for further policy development. The countries we consider are primarily located in East and Southeast Asia, a region that is home to more than 30 percent of the world's population, and are characterized by increasing life expectancy, falling and/or low-fertility rates, relatively immature social protection policy structures, high rates of informal employment, and in many cases, high rates of co-residency. These features point to the relevance of strands of research that do not normally sit together in thinking about the evidence base for pension policy formulation and its impacts. They include fiscal implications, impacts on economic growth and intergenerational affordability, the relationship between alternative pension models and labor market (in)formality, the role of public benefits in the context of multigenerational households and intergenerational transfers, and issues related to pension administration for older people who have worked in the informal sector for most or all of their lives. The chapter documents what we know about these various aspects of the issue and identifies knowledge gaps. Based on the evidence we do have, we indicate policy reform directions, in particular regarding expansion—or for some countries—introduction of social pensions directed to older people who have worked in the informal sector.

In common with a number of other emerging economies in South East Asia, Indonesia is confronting rapid demographic transition at a low level of per capita income. The fourth largest country in the world by population size, Indonesia will face new challenges for fiscal sustainability and policy design, as in coming decades its labour force begins to shrink, and the older population becomes relatively more numerous. In this paper, we demonstrate how strong data sources, from international agencies, national sources, and surveys of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) family, are available and can be combined to generate a statistical profile of an emerging economy. Such profiles have value in themselves but can also be used as the basis for specifying macroeconomic models of demographic transition, of the overlapping generations (OLG) type, and for various other purposes. The profile presented here will serve to inform both policymakers and the broader community of the long-run trends which will inexorably impact Indonesian society in coming decades. It indicates that major social protection policy development will be needed over the next period to avert widespread hardship, especially among older cohorts.

Purpose The Australian prisoner population has experienced a dramatic increase in the number of older inmates over the past decade, consistent with the greying of the prisoner population that is being observed worldwide. Reviews suggest the need for further evidence and practice outside of the USA. This paper aims to review and discuss the cost and social implications of the rising health-care needs of this population in Australia. Design/methodology/approach A review of international research and policies is presented, as well as the results of basic economic modelling relating to the expected rise in health-care costs of the ageing prisoner population in Australia. Findings Taking into consideration the continued rise in incarceration rates, the calculations show that the health costs of prisoners could increase by anywhere between 17% and 90% depending on whether the increase of older prisoners continues as it has in the past decade. These trends are likely to continue over the next decade and will result in higher health costs of prisons under a number of different imprisonment scenarios. Policy responses in Australia have been slow so far, with most initiatives being undertaken in the USA with promising results. Practical implications The authors suggest that in the absence of a coordinated policy response, covering a range of interventions, costs will continue to increase, particularly as this population continues to age more rapidly than the general population due to an accumulation of risk factors. Well-conceived interventions would be a worthwhile investment from both financial and social perspectives. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first commentary to acknowledge this rising public health issue and to both review and model its implications for the future.

This chapter identifies and discusses demographic, epidemiologic, and socio-economic drivers’ demands for long-term care based on case studies from the emerging economies of China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The first part describes the demographic drivers, notably population ageing and declining fertility rates. The section examines the factors underlying ageing trends and trends in working-age populations and dependency ratios. The second section focuses on epidemiological transitions, providing trends in life expectancy, the growing burden of chronic non-communicable diseases, and its impacts on health systems. The third part focuses on underlying socioeconomic enablers, including levels of economic development and urban-rural inequalities, social welfare systems, labour force participation, and co-residency and the role of informal care.

This paper examines the economy-wide effects of government policies to extend public pensions in emerging Asia —particularly pertinent given the region’s large informal sector and rapid population ageing. We first document stylized facts about Indonesia’s labour force, drawing on the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). This household survey is then used to calibrate micro behaviours in a stochastic, overlapping-generations (OLG) model with formal and informal labour. The benchmark model is calibrated to the Indonesian economy (2000-2019), fitted to Indonesian demographic, household survey, macroeconomic and fiscal data. The model is applied to simulate pension policy extensions targeted to formal labour (contributory pension extensions to all formal workers with formal retirement age increased from 55 to 65), as well as to informal labour (introduction of non-contributory social pensions to informal 65+). First, abstracting from population ageing, we show that: (i) the first set of pension policy extensions (that have already been legislated and are being implemented in Indonesia) have positive effects on consumption, labour ∗This research is supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), the ARC Linkage grant LP190100681, and the Business School at the University of New South Wales. The analysis in and for (the model developed in) this paper has been presented at the meetings with our linkage partner organisations — the World Bank and the Ministry of National Development Planning Indonesia (Bappenas), held in September 2020 and August 2021. We thank all those who attended these meetings and commented on the model and policy analysis. Specifically, we would like to thank Robert Palacios, Pak Maliki, Peter McDonald, and Philip O’Keefe for their involvement in the project. Importantly, we would like to thank Trang Le who assisted with the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data analysis used for the model calibration. †Corresponding author; CEPAR, UNSW Business School, UNSW Sydney; e-mail: g.kudrna@unsw.edu.au. ‡CEPAR, UNSW Business School, UNSW Sydney. §Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research (PIER), Bank of Thailand, Thailand.

Alcohol consumption has significant health implications. This study estimates the impact of drinking on all-cause mortality, total life expectancy, and disability-free life expectancy for Chinese males aged 65 and above. Using a nationally representative sample from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), we compare mortality risks in Cox regressions among lifelong abstainers, former drinkers, and current drinkers. We find that current male drinkers had lower risks of death than lifelong abstainers in general and the differences were statistically significant among those aged between 68 and 87 years. The interpolated Markov chain (IMaCh) approach is then adopted to calculate life expectancies. After adjustment for socioeconomic factors, we find that an average current male drinker at age 65 could expect to live 18.0 (95% CI: 17.4–18.6) years in total, compared with 16.3 (95% CI: 15.6–17.0) years for lifelong abstainers. His disability-free life expectancy at age 65 was about 16.1 (95% CI: 15.6–16.7) years, longer than the 14.2 (95% CI: 13.6–14.9) years for lifelong abstainers. Our findings are relevant for both social protection policy design and life insurance business practice.

Objectives:Family care is a large part of an informal workforce and there are increasing unmet demands for ageing populations, particularly in low and middle-income country settings. This study investigates relationships and care requirements for older care recipients and their caregivers within the household and identifies factors relating to depressive symptoms among caregivers of older persons.Method: Data were derived from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS Wave 5). Multiple logistic regressions were used for analyses. Outcomes were Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D score >= 10 as having moderate to severe depressive symptoms).Results: Over half of care recipients aged 50 years and over reported requiring intermediate or high-level care intensity. Primary caregivers were most often spouses for older males and adult children for older females. Factors associated with depressive symptoms among caregivers were not working (adjusted odds ratio, AOR 1.86; 95% Confidence Interval 1.19- 2.90), primary school education (AOR 5.01; 1.96-12.8), living in rural area (AOR 1.38; 1.01-1.88), and having multiple older care recipients in the household (AOR 1.98; 1.43-2.75). Having care recipients with medium or high functional limitation levels (AORs 2.27; 1.51-3.42 and 3.36; 2.00-5.63, respectively) and not receiving household co-resident support were associated with caregivers' depressive symptoms (AOR 1.32; 1.01-1.89).Conclusion: To meet the anticipated future demands for elderly care, addressing factors relating to depressive symptoms, especially amongst those not working, low education, living in rural areas could help mitigate adverse effects for caregivers. Caregivers could benefit from the provision of adequate support, including screening for depressive symptoms.

Demographic and technological changes are two megatrends set to transform labour markets around the world. These shifts are already under way and are expected to accelerate, particularly in East and Southeast Asia, which is home to the world's oldest and fastest-ageing societies and a region with an enviable pace of economic development. Yet for some countries, demographic ageing is coinciding with a slowdown in productivity and economic growth. While each of these phenomena has been extensively researched, the study of the interactions between them is often incidental and rarely carried out in the Asian setting. This article explores the plausible channels of these interactions and assembles evidence of links between age and productivity at the individual, firm and country levels, drawn from both Asian and global settings. Findings have shown that there are many knowledge gaps, both in data and modelling, which need to be addressed to inform the major policy interventions required to successfully manage these transitions.

Pain is a growing public health issue worldwide, but there is limited population-based evidence in low- and middle-income country settings. Using nationwide Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data in 2007 and 2014, this research sets out to investigate the associations between changes in pain status between two time points and its impact on functional health outcomes among middle-aged and older adults in Indonesia. Analyses focused on 7936 adults aged 50 years and older in 2014 who responded to both waves. Functional health was assessed using a composite score of functional limitations (range 20–100), representing difficulty in performing activities of daily living, and grip strength (kilograms). Multivariate linear regression models were used to analyse associations between pain measured in 2007 and 2014 and functional health in 2014. Severe pain in the latest wave of IFLS was associated with older age, female, lower education, having chronic conditions or depressive symptoms. Notably, those who reported ‘low–medium’ pain in 2007 and ‘severe’ pain in 2014 belonged to the most vulnerable group with worst functional health outcomes (4.96 points higher limitation scores and 1.17 kg weaker average grip strength). Findings have implications for public health policy in monitoring and management of pain including related co-morbidities as an increasingly critical component of population ageing.

We explore the workings of the German private annuity market to evaluate whether annuities are delivering an adequate value for money by measuring their money’s worth. We examine key features of the German private annuity market and give a comprehensive description of the main product groups, taking into consideration the statutory obligation to distribute substantial parts of insurer’s annual profits to the annuitant. Relying on a large dataset covering about 90% of the German market, we calculate money’s worth ratios for private payout annuities and trace long-term developments. Disciplines Economics Comments The published version of this Working Paper may be found in the 2011 publication: Securing Lifelong Retirement Income. This working paper is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/prc_papers/205 Comp. by: PG2649 Stage : Revises1 ChapterID: 0001242107 Date:5/4/11 Time:22:14:05 Filepath:d:/womat-filecopy/0001242107.3D Securing Lifelong Retirement Income: Global Annuity Markets and Policy

This paper discusses the potential expansion of the role of the notional defined contribution (NDC) paradigm in the ongoing reforms of retirement provision in China.It finds that mature age life expectancy is remarkably uniform among formal sector workers at the time of retirement, although greater heterogeneity does exist for Rural and UrbanResidents Pension Scheme members.The implications of a stylized NDC structure are examined covering China's major pension systems, calibrated to be actuarially neutral.Each system has a different contribution rate and retirement age, consistent with different life expectancies.A complementary social pension is also proposed.The paper concludes that an increased presence of the NDC paradigm has the potential to raise aggregate welfare.

Population ageing poses unique challenges for social security systems. Developed countries, with well-established structures, will face increasing age-related spending. They will require further reforms that balance spending cuts against core promises across generations. Most emerging economies, on the other hand, lack comprehensive social security yet are ageing rapidly. They must establish comprehensive retirement income support structures, universal health services, and publicly supported long term care in a rapidly changing macro-demographic environment.