We present a model for the intrinsic alignment contamination of the shear three-point correlation function and skewness of the mass aperture statistic using the tidal alignment and tidal torquing (TATT) formalism. We compute the intrinsic alignment bispectra components in terms of the TATT model parameters. We consider two effective field theory approaches in the literature, relate them to the TATT model parameters and an extension to TATT that includes the velocity-shear (VS) parameter. We compare the impact of changing between NLA, TATT, and TATT+VS on the theoretical computation of the 3PCF using the best fit parameters and tomographic redshift distributions from Dark Energy Survey Year 3. We find that the TATT model significantly impacts the skewed triangle configurations of the 3PCF. Additionally, including the higher-order effects from TATT can introduce opposite effects on the two-point function and on the mass aperture skewness, damping the signal of the former while boosting the signal of the latter. We argue that a joint 2PCF+3PCF analysis with the TATT model can help break the degeneracy between its model parameters and provide more robust constraints on both cosmology and intrinsic alignment amplitude parameters. We show that typical values of order unity for the intrinsic alignment parameters introduce differences of around 10% between NLA and TATT predictions.

Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.

The orientation of triaxial galaxy clusters with respect to the line-of-sight is expected to be one of the prime sources of scatter and potential bias in optical observables (e.g., richness and weak-lensing signal) of galaxy clusters. In this work, we use the observed shape of the central Brightest Cluster Galaxy (BCG) as proxy for the orientation along the line-of-sight for clusters selected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) surveys, matched to optically selected clusters from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES). We construct two samples of clusters that are designed to be identical in SZ mass estimate and redshift but with the roundest vs. the most elliptical BCGs, which we expect to correspond to BCGs (and clusters) with major axes aligned along the line-of-sight vs. in the plane of the sky, respectively. We find that the optical richness of round-BCG clusters is ∼ 10% larger than that of elliptical-BCG clusters, in agreement with the expectation from projection effects and presenting the first such detection in data. The density profiles, however, are not in agreement with the expectation from projection effects: the 1-halo term (below 6 h^-1Mpc) of both the weak-lensing and galaxy density profiles are the same for the subsamples, contrary to previous studies based on X-ray selected clusters. In the 2-halo regime (above 6 h^-1Mpc), we find a significant excess of the elliptical-BCG cluster profiles compared to the round-BCG cluster profiles, which is the opposite of the expectation from numerical simulations. We hypothesize that the intrinsic shape of the BCG reflects not just the orientation angle, but also intrinsic properties of the cluster which can affect both the SZ signal and the amplitude of the 2-halo term.

We present diffHOD-IA, a fully differentiable implementation of a halo occupation distribution (HOD) model that incorporates galaxy intrinsic alignments (IA). Motivated by the diffHOD framework, we create a new implementation that extends differentiable galaxy population modeling to include orientation-dependent statistics crucial for weak gravitational lensing analyses. Our implementation combines this HOD formulation with an IA model, enabling end-to-end automatic differentiation from HOD and IA parameters through to the galaxy field. We additionally extend this framework to differentiably model two-point correlation functions, including galaxy clustering and IA statistics. We validate diffHOD-IA against the reference halotools-IA implementation using the Bolshoi-Planck simulation, demonstrating excellent agreement across both one-point and two-point statistics. We verify the accuracy of gradients computed via automatic differentiation by comparison with finite-difference estimates for both HOD and IA parameters. We present science use cases leveraging gradients in the simulations to recover the IA parameters of a galaxy field representative of the TNG300 simulation. Finally, we apply diffHOD-IA in a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo analysis and compare its performance with halotools-IA and a neural-network-based emulator, IAEmu. Unlike emulator-based approaches for statistics, diffHOD-IA provides differentiability at the catalog level, enabling integration into field-level inference pipelines and extension to arbitrary summary statistics for next-generation weak-lensing analyses. Our code is publicly available.

Cosmology from weak gravitational lensing has been limited by astrophysical uncertainties in baryonic feedback and intrinsic alignments. By calibrating these effects using external data, we recover non-linear information, achieving a 2

We present estimators for quantifying intrinsic alignments in large spectroscopic surveys that efficiently capture line-of-sight (LOS) information while being relatively insensitive to redshift-space distortions (RSD). We demonstrate that changing the LOS integration range, Pimax, as a function of transverse separation outperforms the conventional choice of a single Pimax value. This is further improved by replacing the flat Pimax cut with a LOS weighting based on shape projection and RSD. Although these estimators incorporate additional LOS information, they are projected correlations that exhibit signal-to-noise ratios comparable to 3D correlation functions, such as the IA quadrupole. Using simulations from Abacus Summit, we evaluate these estimators and provide recommended Pimax values and weights for projected separations of 1 - 100 Mpc/h. These will improve measurements of intrinsic alignments in large cosmological surveys and the constraints they provide for both weak lensing and direct cosmological applications.

We extend current models of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) to include a flexible, empirical framework for the forward modeling of the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies. A primary goal of this work is to produce mock galaxy catalogs for the purpose of validating existing models and methods for the mitigation of IA in weak lensing measurements. This technique can also be used to produce new, simulation-based predictions for IA and galaxy clustering. Our model is probabilistically formulated, and rests upon the assumption that the orientations of galaxies exhibit a correlation with their host dark matter (sub)halo orientation or with their position within the halo. We examine the necessary components and phenomenology of such a model by considering the alignments between (sub)halos in a cosmological dark matter only simulation. We then validate this model for a realistic galaxy population in a set of simulations in the Illustris-TNG suite. We create an HOD mock with Illustris-like correlations using our method, constraining the associated IA model parameters, with the $\chi^2_{\rm dof}$ between our model's correlations and those of Illustris matching as closely as 1.4 and 1.1 for orientation--position and orientation--orientation correlation functions, respectively. By modeling the misalignment between galaxies and their host halo, we show that the 3-dimensional two-point position and orientation correlation functions of simulated (sub)halos and galaxies can be accurately reproduced from quasi-linear scales down to $0.1~h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$. We also find evidence for environmental influence on IA within a halo. Our publicly-available software provides a key component enabling efficient determination of Bayesian posteriors on IA model parameters using observational measurements of galaxy-orientation correlation functions in the highly nonlinear regime.

We present the angular diameter distance measurement obtained with the Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation feature from galaxy clustering in the completed Dark Energy Survey, consisting of six years (Y6) of observations. We use the Y6 BAO galaxy sample, optimized for BAO science in the redshift range 0.6<$z$<1.2, with an effective redshift at $z_{\rm eff}$=0.85 and split into six tomographic bins. The sample has nearly 16 million galaxies over 4,273 square degrees. Our consensus measurement constrains the ratio of the angular distance to sound horizon scale to $D_M(z_{\rm eff})/r_d$ = 19.51$\pm$0.41 (at 68.3% confidence interval), resulting from comparing the BAO position in our data to that predicted by Planck $\Lambda$CDM via the BAO shift parameter $\alpha=(D_M/r_d)/(D_M/r_d)_{\rm Planck}$. To achieve this, the BAO shift is measured with three different methods, Angular Correlation Function (ACF), Angular Power Spectrum (APS), and Projected Correlation Function (PCF) obtaining $\alpha=$ 0.952$\pm$0.023, 0.962$\pm$0.022, and 0.955$\pm$0.020, respectively, which we combine to $\alpha=$ 0.957$\pm$0.020, including systematic errors. When compared with the $\Lambda$CDM model that best fits Planck data, this measurement is found to be 4.3% and 2.1$\sigma$ below the angular BAO scale predicted. To date, it represents the most precise angular BAO measurement at $z$>0.75 from any survey and the most precise measurement at any redshift from photometric surveys. The analysis was performed blinded to the BAO position and it is shown to be robust against analysis choices, data removal, redshift calibrations and observational systematics.

The intrinsic alignments (IA) of galaxies, a key contaminant in weak lensing analyses, arise from correlations in galaxy shapes driven by tidal interactions and galaxy formation processes. Accurate IA modeling is essential for robust cosmological inference, but current approaches rely on perturbative methods that break down on nonlinear scales or on expensive simulations. We introduce IAEmu, a neural network-based emulator that predicts the galaxy position-position ($\xi$), position-orientation ($\omega$), and orientation-orientation ($\eta$) correlation functions and their uncertainties using mock catalogs based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework. Compared to simulations, IAEmu achieves ~3% average error for $\xi$ and ~5% for $\omega$, while capturing the stochasticity of $\eta$ without overfitting. The emulator provides both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, helping identify regions where predictions may be less reliable. We also demonstrate generalization to non-HOD alignment signals by fitting to IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulation data. As a fully differentiable neural network, IAEmu enables $\sim$10,000$\times$ speed-ups in mapping HOD parameters to correlation functions on GPUs, compared to CPU-based simulations. This acceleration facilitates inverse modeling via gradient-based sampling, making IAEmu a powerful surrogate model for galaxy bias and IA studies with direct applications to Stage IV weak lensing surveys.

Upcoming imaging surveys will allow for high signal-to-noise measurements of galaxy clustering at small scales. In this work, we present the results of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bias challenge, the goal of which is to compare the performance of different nonlinear galaxy bias models in the context of LSST Year 10 (Y10) data. Specifically, we compare two perturbative approaches, Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) and Eulerian perturbation theory (EPT) to two variants of Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT), with our fiducial implementation of these models including terms up to second order in the bias expansion as well as nonlocal bias and deviations from Poissonian stochasticity. We consider a variety of different simulated galaxy samples and test the performance of the bias models in a tomographic joint analysis of LSST-Y10-like galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy-lensing and cosmic shear. We find both HEFT methods as well as LPT and EPT combined with non-perturbative predictions for the matter power spectrum to yield unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters up to at least a maximal scale of kmax = 0.4 Mpc-1 for all samples considered, even in the presence of assembly bias. While we find that we can reduce the complexity of the bias model for HEFT without compromising fit accuracy, this is not generally the case for the perturbative models. We find significant detections of non-Poissonian stochasticity in all cases considered, and our analysis shows evidence that small-scale galaxy clustering predominantly improves constraints on galaxy bias rather than cosmological parameters. These results therefore suggest that the systematic uncertainties associated with current nonlinear bias models are likely to be subdominant compared to other sources of error for tomographic analyses of upcoming photometric surveys, which bodes well for future galaxy clustering analyses using these high signal-to-noise data.

Intrinsic alignment (IA) modelling and photometric redshift estimation are two of the main sources of systematic uncertainty in weak lensing surveys. We investigate the impact of redshift errors and their interplay with different IA models. Generally, errors on the mean δ z and on the width σ z of the redshift bins can both lead to biases in cosmological constraints. We find that such biases can, however, only be partially resolved by marginalizing over δ z and σ z . For Stage-III surveys, δ z and σ z cannot be well constrained due to limited statistics. The resulting biases are thus sensitive to prior volume effects. For Stage-IV surveys, we observe that marginalizing over the redshift parameters has an impact and reduces the bias. We derive requirements on the uncertainty of σ z and δ z for both Stage-III and Stage-IV surveys. We assume that the redshift systematic errors on S 8 should be less than half of the statistical errors, and the median bias should be smaller than 0.25 σ . We find that the uncertainty on δ z has to be ≲ 0.025 for the NLA IA model with a Stage-III survey. We find no requirement threshold for σ z since the requirements are met even for our maximum prior width of 0.3. For the TATT IA model, the uncertainty on δ z has to be ≲ 0.02 and the uncertainty on σ z has to be ≲ 0.2. Current redshift precision of Stage-III surveys is therefore high enough to meet these requirements. For Stage-IV surveys, systematic effects will be more important due to the higher statistical precision. In this case, the uncertainty on δ z has to be ≲ 0.005 and the uncertainty on σ z should be ≲ 0.1, with no significant dependence on the IA model. This required high precision will be a challenge for the redshift calibration of these future surveys. Finally, we investigate whether the interplay between redshift systematics and IA modelling can explain the S 8 -tension between cosmic shear results and CMB measurements. We find that this is unlikely to explain the current S 8 -tension. The code that was used to conduct this analysis is publicly available.[ refrigerator : https://cosmo-gitlab.phys.ethz.ch/cosmo_public/refrigerator .]

We propose the use of group convolutional neural network architectures (GCNNs) equivariant to the 2D Euclidean group, $E(2)$, for the task of galaxy morphology classification by utilizing symmetries of the data present in galaxy images as an inductive bias in the architecture. We conduct robustness studies by introducing artificial perturbations via Poisson noise insertion and one-pixel adversarial attacks to simulate the effects of limited observational capabilities. We train, validate, and test GCNNs equivariant to discrete subgroups of $E(2)$ - the cyclic and dihedral groups of order $N$ - on the Galaxy10 DECals dataset and find that GCNNs achieve higher classification accuracy and are consistently more robust than their non-equivariant counterparts, with an architecture equivariant to the group $D_{16}$ achieving a $95.52 \pm 0.18\%$ test-set accuracy. We also find that the model loses $<6\%$ accuracy on a $50\%$-noise dataset and all GCNNs are less susceptible to one-pixel perturbations than an identically constructed CNN. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/snehjp2/GCNNMorphology.

Establishing that Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a flagship dark matter experiment is an essential pathway toward understanding the physical nature of dark matter. In the past two decades, wide-field astronomical surveys and terrestrial laboratories have jointly created a phase transition in the ecosystem of dark matter models and probes. Going forward, any robust understanding of dark matter requires astronomical observations, which still provide the only empirical evidence for dark matter to date. We have a unique opportunity right now to create a dark matter experiment with Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This experiment will be a coordinated effort to perform dark matter research, and provide a large collaborative team of scientists with the necessary organizational and funding supports. This approach leverages existing investments in Rubin. Studies of dark matter with Rubin LSST will also guide the design of, and confirm the results from, other dark matter experiments. Supporting a collaborative team to carry out a dark matter experiment with Rubin LSST is the key to achieving the dark matter science goals that have already been identified as high priority by the high-energy physics and astronomy communities.

The intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies is potentially a major limitation in deriving cosmological constraints from weak lensing surveys. In order to investigate this effect, we assign intrinsic shapes and orientations to galaxies in the light-cone output of the MICE simulation, spanning similar to 5000 deg2 and reaching redshift z 1/4 1.4. This assignment is based on a semianalytic IA model that uses photometric properties of galaxies as well as the spin and shape of their host halos. Advancing on previous work, we include more realistic distributions of galaxy shapes and a luminosity-dependent galaxy-halo alignment. The IA model parameters are calibrated against COSMOS and BOSS LOWZ observations. The null detection of IA in observations of blue galaxies is accounted for by setting random orientations for these objects. We compare the two-point alignment statistics measured in the simulation against predictions from the analytical IA models NLA and TATT over a wide range of scales, redshifts, and luminosities for red and blue galaxies separately. We find that both models fit the measurements well at scales above 8 h-1 Mpc, while TATT outperforms NLA at smaller scales. The IA parameters derived from our fits are in broad agreement with various observational constraints from red galaxies. Lastly, we build a realistic source sample, mimicking DES Year 3 observations and use it to predict the IA contamination to the observed shear statistics. We find this prediction to be within the measurement uncertainty, which might be a consequence of the random alignment of blue galaxies in the simulation.

We analyze the clustering of galaxies using the z=1.006 snapshot of the CosmoDC2 simulation, a high-fidelity synthetic galaxy catalog designed to validate analysis methods for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). We present sub-percent measurements of the galaxy auto-correlation and galaxy-dark matter cross correlations in Fourier space and configuration space for a magnitude-limited galaxy sample. At these levels of precision, the statistical errors of the measurement are comparable to the systematic effects present in the simulation and measurement procedure; nevertheless, using a hybrid-PT model, we are able to model non-linear galaxy bias with 0.5% precision up to scales of $k_{\rm max}= 0.5 \ h/{\rm Mpc}$ and $r_{\rm min}= 4 \ {\rm Mpc}/h$. While the linear bias parameter is measured with 0.01% precision, other bias parameters are determined with considerably weaker constraints and sometimes bimodal posterior distributions. We compare our fiducial model with lower dimensional models where the higher-order bias parameters are fixed at their co-evolution values and find that leaving these parameters free provides significant improvements in our ability to model small scale information. We also compare bias parameters for galaxy samples defined using different magnitude bands and find agreement between samples containing equal numbers of galaxies. Finally, we compare bias parameters between Fourier space and configuration space and find moderate tension between the two approaches. Although our model is often unable to fit the CosmoDC2 galaxy samples within the 0.1% precision of our measurements, our results suggest that the hybrid-PT model used in this analysis is capable of modeling non-linear galaxy bias within the percent level precision needed for upcoming galaxy surveys.

Cosmological data in the next decade will be characterized by high-precision, multi-wavelength measurements of thousands of square degrees of the same patches of sky. By performing multi-survey analyses that harness the correlated nature of these datasets, we will gain access to new science, and increase the precision and robustness of science being pursued by each individual survey. However, effective application of such analyses requires a qualitatively new level of investment in cross-survey infrastructure, including simulations, associated modeling, coordination of data sharing, and survey strategy. The scientific gains from this new level of investment are multiplicative, as the benefits can be reaped by even present-day instruments, and can be applied to new instruments as they come online.

A new generation of powerful dark energy experiments will open new vistas for cosmology in the next decade. However, these projects cannot reach their utmost potential without data from other telescopes. This white paper focuses in particular on the compelling benefits of ground-based spectroscopic and photometric observations to complement the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, as well as smaller programs in aid of a DESI-2 experiment and CMB-S4. These additional data sets will both improve dark energy constraints from these flagship projects beyond what would possible on their own and open completely new windows into fundamental physics. For example, additional photometry and single-object spectroscopy will provide necessary follow-up information for supernova and strong lensing cosmology, while highly-multiplexed spectroscopy both from smaller facilities over wide fields and from larger facilities over narrower regions of sky will yield more accurate photometric redshift estimates for weak lensing and galaxy clustering measurements from the Rubin Observatory, provide critical spectroscopic host galaxy redshifts for supernova Hubble diagrams, provide improved understanding of limiting astrophysical systematic effects, and enable new measurements that probe the nature of gravity. A common thread is that access to complementary data from a range of telescopes/instruments would have a substantial impact on the rate of advance of dark energy science in the coming years.

ABSTRACT The tangential shear signal receives contributions from physical scales in the galaxy–matter correlation function well below the transverse scale at which it is measured. Since small scales are difficult to model, this non-locality has generally required stringent scale cuts or new statistics for cosmological analyses. Using the fact that uncertainty in these contributions corresponds to an uncertainty in the enclosed projected mass around the lens, we provide an analytic marginalization scheme to account for this. Our approach enables the inclusion of measurements on smaller scales without requiring numerical sampling over extra free parameters. We extend the analytic marginalization formalism to retain cosmographic (shear-ratio) information from small-scale measurements that would otherwise be removed due to modelling uncertainties, again without requiring the addition of extra sampling parameters. We test the methodology using simulated likelihood analysis of a Dark Energy Survey Year 5-like galaxy–galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering datavector. We demonstrate that we can remove parameter biases due to the presence of an unmodelled one-halo contamination of the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal, and use the shear-ratio information on small scales to improve cosmological parameter constraints.

The expansion of the Universe is understood to have accelerated during two epochs: in its very first moments during a period of Inflation and much more recently, at $z < 1$, when Dark Energy is hypothesized to drive cosmic acceleration. The undiscovered mechanisms behind these two epochs represent some of the most important open problems in fundamental physics. The large cosmological volume at $2 < z < 5$, together with the ability to efficiently target high-$z$ galaxies with known techniques, enables large gains in the study of Inflation and Dark Energy. A future spectroscopic survey can test the Gaussianity of the initial conditions up to a factor of ~50 better than our current bounds, crossing the crucial theoretical threshold of $\sigma(f_{NL}^{\rm local})$ of order unity that separates single field and multi-field models. Simultaneously, it can measure the fraction of Dark Energy at the percent level up to $z = 5$, thus serving as an unprecedented test of the standard model and opening up a tremendous discovery space.