Extensive livestock systems are vital livelihood strategies in arid and semiarid regions, yet are undergoing profound transformations driven by complex social, economic, and ecological changes. How these transformations are studied shapes not only scientific understanding but also problem diagnoses and policy responses. We conducted a systematic review of literature analyzing trends in extensive livestock systems in arid, semiarid, and Mediterranean regions over the past four decades (1980-2020). Using the coupled infrastructure systems framework, which distinguishes infrastructure and governance alongside ecological and social components, we examined research focus across five system components: resources, users, user private infrastructure, public infrastructure, and public infrastructure providers. We evaluated social-ecological, disciplinary, and biogeographic patterns. Our analysis reveals a fundamental mismatch: although socioeconomic disturbances (policy changes, market shifts, institutional transformations) are reported as the dominant drivers of change, research attention remains concentrated on biophysical components (livestock numbers, pasture condition), with social and institutional dimensions severely underrepresented. Integration across system components is limited, with most studies examining one or two components in isolation, missing critical feedbacks. Geographically, research concentrates on developing regions with increasing livestock, whereas developed-country systems undergoing destocking and degrading ecosystems remain understudied. These patterns reflect institutional and epistemic structures that privilege certain knowledge forms, reinforcing narrow framings centered on ecological degradation while obscuring social and institutional processes. Addressing these systems' challenges requires structural changes in funding, training, and collaboration that elevate social science perspectives and prioritize integration.

Mountain grasslands support multiple habitats of community interest (HCI) whose conservation status relies on extensive livestock grazing. However, declining stocking rates and changes in livestock composition are reshaping livestock distribution in many European mountain systems, increasing the risk of localized abandonment and degradation. We integrated GPS tracking data from cattle and sheep with species distribution models (SDMs) to predict activity-specific (i.e., grazing and resting) habitat suitability in sub-alpine and alpine grasslands of the Central Pyrenees (NE Spain). Additionally, we assessed the environmental drivers (i.e., vegetation, topography and management infrastructure) underlying livestock distribution and evaluated habitat selection across HCI. Activity-specific SDMs revealed that highly suitable resting sites were spatially nested within broader suitable grazing areas. Vegetation productivity and terrain slope were the primary drivers of habitat suitability, whereas distance to management infrastructure played a secondary role. Cattle were largely constrained to accessible, productive sub-alpine grasslands and were highly selective on two specific grassland HCI. Sheep displayed a broader habitat use and maintained grazing pressure across all grassland HCI. Grasslands dominated by Festuca gautieri showed low preference values, arising as particularly vulnerable to grazing abandonment. In contrast, grasslands dominated by Festuca eskia or Bromus erectus are likely to remain grazed but may experience spatial concentration of grazing and resting activities under increasing cattle stocking rates. Activity-specific SDMs provide a spatially explicit framework to identify contrasting vulnerabilities of mountain grasslands under changing grazing regimes, supporting conservation-oriented management by anticipating both grazing abandonment and localized concentration of grazing pressure in high-nature-value landscapes.

Managed grazing is the most extensive land use on Earth. The prevailing narrative is that global rangelands, from grasslands to deserts, are being degraded by overgrazing due to overstocking. This perception arises from scientific literature, which contains an order of magnitude more studies on overstocking than on reductions in stocking rates. In contrast, over the past 25 y, regions representing almost half (42%) of global livestock have experienced reductions in stocking rates rather than the expected increases. We evaluated socioeconomic, technological, and climatic direct drivers, as well as indirect drivers, of global stocking patterns. Trade and climate had no detectable effects, whereas technological shifts and meat consumption had an impact on stocking rates. Direct drivers were largely controlled by human population and gross domestic product. Wealthier regions, with slower population growth, greater feed supplementation, and reliance on nongrazing livestock, reduced stocking rates. Less affluent regions, facing rapid population growth and rising meat demand but limited technological and feed resources, increased stocking rates. The overlooked reductions in stocking rates may have major ecological consequences at regional and global scales. Destocking can impact biodiversity, fire regimes, potentially increase carbon sequestration, and modify land-atmosphere fluxes. These effects are not simply the reverse of overstocking, as some consequences are irreversible, including state transitions and local extinctions. The skewed pattern of publications toward overstocking and overgrazing led to a perception of widespread degradation and had consequences on research direction and policy.

Aim: Understanding the processes that structure biodiversity on Earth is a major challenge in biology. Our work tests three key hypotheses driving taxonomic changes in bird communities globally, focusing on nestedness and turnover components: (1) contemporary climate, related to energy and water availability; (2) climate stability, reflecting shifts since the last glacial maximum; and (3) climatic heterogeneity, describing environmental gradients. We also examine whether these processes explain deviations in phylogenetic composition from expectations based on taxonomic changes among communities. Location: Global. Time Period: Present. Major Taxa Studied: Birds. Methods: We calculated total taxonomic dissimilarity, its nestedness and turnover components, between neighbouring cells considering all living bird species. We tested for significant phylogenetic over- and underdispersion by comparing observed phylogenetic dissimilarity to a null model. We used linear regression models to quantify the relationships between taxonomic dissimilarity and phylogenetic deviations with climatic variables representing our hypotheses. Results: Precipitation steepness, that is, relative changes in precipitation, was strongly correlated with taxonomic changes (R2 = 27%), driving both changes in local community richness (nestedness) and species replacement between different regional pools (turnover). These two processes were decoupled, with precipitation steepness driving richness differences up to 1200 mm of annual precipitation, and turnover being more relevant in hyperarid and tropical areas. Phylogenetic deviations were common (35% of global cells), resulting from both over- and underdispersion, but they lacked a climatic signal. Main Conclusions: Our work supports the hypothesis that climatic heterogeneity, due to precipitation steepness, is the main climatic factor driving composition changes in bird communities globally, controlling local richness and transitions between regional pools. Changes in species composition often lead to phylogenetic dispersion or clustering, but the main processes responsible for taxonomic sorting are phylogenetically neutral. As such, taxonomic and phylogenetic changes between neighbouring bird communities may be driven largely by different processes.

Hunting is one of the oldest and most relevant extractive activities performed by humans in nature. Over the last century hunting has experienced profound changes in developed countries, shifting from a consumption to a recreational activity and declining in some countries. However, substantial quantitative information on these trends at large temporal scales, as well as the projection of the number of hunters and their demographic structure under future scenarios is lacking at regional scales. Here we (i) describe the current demography of hunters in a large portion of the Iberian Peninsula, (ii) quantify population and recruitment trends for the last five decades and (iii) starting from those trends, we project the number and structure of hunters for the following decades. At present, the studied hunting population, with nearly 600,000 hunters, is strongly ageing, with the most abundant cohort being that between 61 and 70 years, and its prevalence is eight times higher on the smallest towns than in the large cities. Over the last 15 years hunters have declined by 26%, while over the last 50 years it has declined by 45%. This trend is linked to a steady decline of recruitment of young hunters that has been overall reduced by 89% in the last 50 years. By 2050, if following average trends observed during the last five decades, hunters in the whole study area are expected to decrease by 70%, and the proportion of hunters aged over 60 will increase from 40% to 61%. Overall, our results indicate an ongoing collapse of the population of hunters in the Iberian Peninsula due to lack of recruitment, which began at least five decades ago. This collapse, together with other post-rural abandonment processes (e.g. livestock and wood-collection) is likely having a deep impact on wildlife populations and ecosystems, which is largely understudied. In this new post-abandonment state, approaches to environmental management should be adapted to accommodate these ongoing, long-term socio-ecological shifts.Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Mountain grasslands support diverse plant communities and multiple ecosystem services, but they are increasingly threatened by changes in land use and climate. Understanding how they respond to these drivers is essential for their sustainable management and conservation. This study investigates the long-term (1984–2023) dynamics of aboveground primary production and its stability in response to climate and land-use change in mountain grasslands of the Spanish Pyrenees. We analyzed the climate-NDVI relationships and assessed stability components (resistance, resilience and temporal stability) in three grasslands types: grazed subalpine, grazed alpine and abandoned subalpine grasslands. We found that the impacts of climate change on grassland primary production were modulated by land use. Specifically, climate change had a net negative effect on aboveground primary production in alpine and subalpine grazed grasslands, probably due to increased hydric stress, but a net positive effect in abandoned grasslands, possibly due to the lengthening of the growing season. Nevertheless, a long-term increase in primary production was observed across all grassland types, suggesting the pervasive effects of carbon and nitrogen fertilization and plant succession. Primary production in alpine grasslands showed resistance to precipitation variability, whereas subalpine grazed grasslands were highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. In abandoned grasslands, woody encroachment decoupled primary production from climatic drivers, leading to increased resistance and higher temporal stability, but reduced resilience. Our results highlight the dual threat that climate change poses to managed mountain grasslands, hindering their productivity while exacerbating post-abandonment woody encroachment.

Increases in the abundance of woody species have been reported to affect the provisioning of ecosystem services in drylands worldwide. However, it is virtually unknown how multiple biotic and abiotic drivers, such as climate, grazing, and fire, interact to determine woody dominance across global drylands. We conducted a standardized field survey in 304 plots across 25 countries to assess how climatic features, soil properties, grazing, and fire affect woody dominance in dryland rangelands. Precipitation, temperature, and grazing were key determinants of tree and shrub dominance. The effects of grazing were determined not solely by grazing pressure but also by the dominant livestock species. Interactions between soil, climate, and grazing and differences in responses to these factors between trees and shrubs were key to understanding changes in woody dominance. Our findings suggest that projected changes in climate and grazing pressure may increase woody dominance in drylands, altering their structure and functioning.

Context Passive habitat rewilding after rural abandonment can affect wildlife differently depending on the type of habitats that it generates. Objective Evaluate and compare the effects of two alternative vegetation trajectories that occur through passive habitat rewilding in Mediterranean ecotone areas (crop-scrub and crop-pine forest transitions) on the long-term population dynamics of animal species. Methods We used the spur-thighed tortoise ( Testudo graeca ), a characteristic long-lived species of cultural landscapes, as study species. We applied a spatially explicit and individual-based model (STEPLAND) to simulate the movement and demographic processes in a long-term period , by comparing an “impact scenario” (i.e., historical land-use changes) to a “control scenario” (no land-use changes). Results The two landscape scenarios resulted in different population trends. In the crop-scrub scenarios (control and impact), population densities increased similarly over time. However, the crop-pine forest scenario negatively affected population density throughout the simulation period, and showed a time-lag response of three decades. The extinction risk was 55% with a time-lag response of approximately 110 years. Conclusions Our study highlights the need to analyse the legacy effects on long-lived ectotherms, using them as a proxy to understand the future effects of dynamic landscapes created by “passive habitat rewilding”. Our results showed how traditional agriculture in Mediterranean ecotone areas may generate “ecotone effects” (i.e. increase in demographical parameters), but also population extinction on long-lived ectotherms. Therefore, we consider it relevant to maintain traditional agricultural areas in Mediterranean landscapes, especially in ecotone areas associated with pine forests (generating mosaics with open habitats).

Species' ranges are dynamic, particularly at large temporal scales. The reconstruction of range dynamics has an obvious biogeographical interest and might also help to frame current knowledge on the ecology and conservation of a species within a wider biogeographical context. The Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus is a charismatic high-altitude species occurring along mountain ranges of the Old World. The species has experienced a global range contraction in the last century mainly due to unintentional poisoning and direct persecution. Despite its declining status and high habitat specialization, little is known about how climate change is impacting the distribution of suitable habitat, or about global past range dynamics of the species. We modelled the current distribution of Bearded Vulture throughout its entire range and projected the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM), Mid-Holocene (MH) and future distribution under 2070s climate change scenarios. Overall, our models predicted that expansion of suitable areas at more northern latitudes for 2070, mostly in Russia and China, does not compensate for range contraction at more southern latitudes, resulting in a global loss of 15% of suitable habitat. Our fine-scale predictions of habitat contraction due to climate change will assist in identifying current portions of the range that might be particularly vulnerable in coming years. African populations (34% decrease) and more thermic areas in Asia are the most impacted areas, and should be at the forefront of future monitoring and conservation efforts. Our models suggest that the predicted contraction in habitat suitability during the 21st century largely continues the contraction experienced since the LGM (7% decline), albeit over a much shorter period of time. From a biogeographical perspective, our models suggest that there have not been relevant changes in the arrangement of the main suitable areas for the species since the LGM. This result challenges some of the main hypotheses proposed to explain the observed genetic structure of the global population.

El estudio del movimiento de los individuos informa directamente sobre los tamaños de las áreas de campeo, las rutas migratorias o la selección de hábitat. Pero, además, la integración de datos de movimiento en modelos ecológicos permite además abordar mayores escalas. En este trabajo mostramos los resultados de nuestra línea de investigación utilizando STEPLAND, un modelo basado en el individuo de desarrollo propio. El modelo se parametrizó con datos de movimiento, demográficos y genéticos de tortugas terrestres (Testudo graeca) del SE de España. Llevamos a cabo diferentes experimentos de simulación con el fin de contestar a cuestiones sobre los efectos del cambio global en la conservación de la especie. A nivel de especie, identificamos aquellos rasgos evolutivos de las tortugas, como el almacenamiento de esperma por parte de las hembras, que evitan las extinciones en hábitats antropizados. A escala de paisaje, evaluamos el impacto del abandono agrícola y la intensificación en la dinámica poblacional de esta especie de vida larga. La intensificación afectó negativamente las tasas reproductivas, la densidad de población y la probabilidad de extinción de T. graeca, con respuestas de retardo de 20, 30 y 130 años respectivamente. Finalmente, en un contexto regional, pretendemos simular las primeras etapas de una expansión. Los primeros resultados sugieren patrones característicos de surfing genético, un proceso que afecta la expansión de especies de baja dispersión afectadas por deriva genética. Creemos que nuestra línea de investigación ejemplifica bien que el valor científico de los datos de movimiento excede el nivel de individuo.

Transhumance is the traditional livestock practice consisting in the seasonal movement of herds between winter and summer pastures. Transhumance have important effects on the ecosystem functions from local to regional scales. Here, we 1) explored the relationship of vultures to transhumant herds, and 2) tested whether there is a shift on the use of space by vultures due to the decline of transhumance. For that, we first assessed whether vultures follow transhumant herds in two mountain areas with transhumant tradition, Pyrenees (Spain) and Andes (Argentina). Second, we compared both systems to determine whether the impact of transhumance on the use of space of vultures is greater in the area where transhumance is still relevant (Andes) than where this activity is in decline (Pyrenees). For this purpose, we analyzed the use of the summer pastures made by 50 griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) and 18 Andean condors (Vultur gryphus), as assessed by GPS tracking. Our findings showed that both species respond to transhumance by making greater use of summer pastures when herds are present. A higher proportion of condors made use of summer pastures than griffons, and condors individually made a more intense use of it than griffons. Differences could be explained by the fact that transhumance in the Andes is still important while in the Pyrenees is declining and the amount of carrion provided is lower. Given that the abandonment of traditional activities is a phenomenon underway, it is urgent to evaluate the effects it will have on biodiversity conservation.

SummaryRaptors play a unique role in ecosystem services and are regarded as effective indicators of ecosystem health. In recent years, varieties of anthropogenic factors have threatened the majority of raptor species worldwide. Nepal is considered a global hotspot for threatened and declining raptor species, but there is limited information on the direct human threats to the raptor populations living in the country. In this paper, we identify important anthropogenic threats to raptors in Nepal based on raptor mortality data collected by powerline surveys and from monitoring of GPS-tagged raptors, complete various reports, and social media. We found that powerlines, poisoning, and persecution, mainly shooting, are significant threats to raptors in Nepal that were largely overlooked previously. We report 54 electrocuted raptors affecting eight species, 310 poisoned raptors of 11 species, and five persecuted raptors of four species; among them vultures are the most affected (>88%). Based on our findings, to safeguard the future of Nepal’s raptors, we propose the retrofitting of power poles and the use of flight diverters on powerlines in the most affected areas to reduce raptor interactions with powerlines, as well as an effective conservation education programme to prevent the use of unintentional poisoning.

The study of the movement of individuals directly informs about home-range sizes, migratory routes or habitat selection. But also, integrating movement into ecological models allows for larger-scale studies. Here we summarize the results of our line of research based in the individual-based model STEPLAND. The model was parameterized with movement, demographic and genetic data of spur-thighed tortoises (Testudo graeca) in SE Spain. We developed different simulation experiments to answer questions about the effects of global change on the conservation of this species. At the species level, we identified those evolutionary traits of tortoises, such as female sperm storage, that prevent extinctions in human-altered habitats. At landscape scale, we assessed the impact of agricultural abandonment and agricultural intensification on the population dynamics of this long-lived species. Only agricultural intensification negatively affected reproductive rates, population density, and probability of extinction of T. graeca, with time-lag responses of 20, 30 and 130 years respectively. Finally, in a regional context, we aim to simulate the early stages of a range expansion. Preliminary results reveal patterns compatible to "genetic surfing", a process affecting the expansion of low dispersal species impacted by strong ge-netic drift. We believe that our line of research exemplifies well that the scientific value of movement data goes well beyond the individual level.

Abstract There is a long‐standing relationship between humans and vertebrate scavengers, as scavengers' contributions take on regulating (e.g. nutrient recycling and disease control), material (e.g. competition and livestock depredation) and non‐material (e.g. sky burials and ecotourism) roles in society. A social–ecological approach to studying biodiversity is increasingly needed, since the inclusion of local perceptions and knowledge has proven critical for effective conservation programs and ecosystem management. We examine livestock farmers' perceptions and knowledge related to vertebrate scavengers in the highly diverse Chitwan‐Annapurna Landscape (Nepal) and assess the socio‐demographic traits that influence their perceived value of scavengers' ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) index, and function via scavenging services (SS). Farmers' perceptions of functional importance (SS) showed species‐specific gradation, unlike ESP, where only avian scavengers were perceived as beneficial. Our results show that the perception of scavenging as a beneficial ecosystem service and its importance as a biological function are decoupled for facultative scavengers and coupled for obligate scavengers. Relatedly, we identify that affluence‐related traits drove positive perceptions of ESP, and local ecological knowledge‐based traits were linked to increased knowledge of function via SS. Thus, this increased awareness of functional importance based on close contact with nature does not guarantee positive valuations of scavengers' contributions, whereas formal education did influence positive perceptions despite reduced awareness of function. Additionally, our findings suggest that existing environmental education measures are targeting the right groups, as these respondents coincide with lower favourability of scavengers' ecosystem services, but may be unable to overcome existing human–wildlife conflict. For the first time in South Asia, we survey relevant community stakeholder's attitudes towards an entire scavenging guild and their associated benefits, detriments and functional importance. Our study illustrates the varied perceptions that exist for different scavenger species and closely examines a wide‐ranging set of socio‐demographic traits that show disparate influences on farmers' knowledge of ecological function and perceived ecosystem service benefits. Crucially, these findings can guide conservation and management priorities by considering the differences in public perception and awareness of scavenging, as well as the interpretation of nature's contribution to people. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Aim Concern about the impacts of biological invasions has generated a great deal of interest in understanding factors that determine invasion success. Most of our current knowledge comes from static approaches that use spatial patterns as a proxy of temporal processes. These approaches assume that species are present in areas where environmental conditions are the most favourable. However, this assumption is problematic when applied to dynamic processes such as species expansions when equilibrium has not been reached. Location Iberian Peninsula. Taxon Birds. Methods In our work, we analyse the roles played by human activities, climatic matching and spatial connectivity on the two main underlying processes shaping the spread of invasive species (i.e. colonization and extinction) using a dynamic modelling approach. We use a large data set that has recorded the occurrence of two invasive bird species-the ring-necked (Psittacula krameri) and the monk (Myiopsitta monachus) parakeets-in the Iberian Peninsula from 1991 to 2016. Results Human activities and climate matching play a role on species range dynamics. Human influence and urbanization were the most relevant factors explaining colonization. Additionally, an effect of climate matching was found. Persistence (the inverse of extinction) was mainly affected by human influence for the monk parakeet and by the extent of urban environments for the ring-necked parakeet. Main conclusions Human activities play a major role not only on colonization of new locations, but also on persistence during range expansion. Additionally, natural processes-notably climate matching-also affect new colonizations. These findings add to our understanding of the mechanisms that might allow alien species to expand their geographic range at new locations and might help to improve our capacity to assess invasion risks and impacts accurately.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are useful tools for the conservation of fishes, providing that they include the essential habitats for the focal species. Habitat selection may depend on external (i.e., environmental conditions, food availability, and shelter) and internal (i.e., density-dependent processes) factors. Additionally, most fishes undergo ontogenetic shifts along their life cycles, thus, understanding the habitat requirements at each stage is of great interest for the correct design and functioning of MPAs. Here, we evaluated habitat preferences of high-level predatory fishes, namely Epinephelus marginatus, Epinephelus costae, Mycteroperca rubra, Dentex dentex, Sciaena umbra and Sphyraena viridensis to assess differences between species, maturity stages and density of fish. To do so, we applied Species Distribution Models (SDMs) in protected and unprotected areas along the coast of Murcia (SE Spain) to determine if those areas are properly located for the conservation of the focal species. We included three areas with different density of fishes. One area with high density in the long-term protected Cabo de Palos-Islas Hormigas MPA, and two with low density in the newly established Cabo Tiñoso MPA and the unprotected area of Cabo Cope. We evaluated the environmental variables that affect the occurrence of the species at two life stages, before and after achieving size at maturity. SDMs showed that bathymetry, habitat complexity and rocky bottoms were the most important drivers determining species distribution in both areas with high and low density of fish, although there were differences in the contribution of the variables at each location. Additionally, we found that habitat requirements were different for the immature and mature individuals, generally being the immatures the most sensitive to changes in habitats. Both MPAs and the unprotected area largely included areas of high suitability for the studied species, indicating that the MPAs are established in proper areas, and suggesting another area for the establishment of a new MPA to enhance a MPA network in the region.

The diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) is a charismatic and long-lived species of the United States eastern coast, and the only North American turtle that exclusively inhabits coastal brackish waters. Many terrapin populations are declining, and these declines have been largely linked to human activities; however, few studies have documented human and natural factors affecting terrapin population demography. Jamaica Bay, an urban estuary located in southern New York City, USA, is home to 2 nesting aggregations of terrapins, located at Ruler's Bar Hassock (RBH) and John F. Kennedy Airport (JFK). We analyzed mark-recapture data for RBH from 2003-2018 and JFK from 2011-2018 to estimate annual survivorship of female diamondback terrapins and test the effects of 3 factors (a hurricane, water quality represented by nitrogen concentration, and injuries) on survival. The initial estimated annual survival was high (0.93) at RBH but declined to 0.89, while survival remained constant at JFK (0.92). Models examining the effect of Hurricane Sandy (2012) indicated a significant decline in survival in the 2 years following the hurricane in the RBH nesting aggregation but no change at JFK. Water quality did not influence trends in either aggregation, but the presence of major injuries (caused by boat collisions, predators, and the hurricane) significantly reduced annual survival at RBH. We propose increasing terrapin survivorship through mitigation of boat traffic, reducing populations of northern raccoons (Procyon lotor) to reduce injury to female terrapins and decrease egg and hatchling mortality, and increased law enforcement to reduce on-going poaching and capture as illegal by-catch.

Species assemblages often have a non-random nested organization, which in vertebrate scavenger (carrion-consuming) assemblages is thought to be driven by facilitation in competitive environments. However, not all scavenger species play the same role in maintaining assemblage structure, as some species are obligate scavengers (i.e., vultures) and others are facultative, scavenging opportunistically. We used a database with 177 vertebrate scavenger species from 53 assemblages in 22 countries across five continents to identify which functional traits of scavenger species are key to maintaining the scavenging network structure. We used network analyses to relate ten traits hypothesized to affect assemblage structure with the "role" of each species in the scavenging assemblage in which it appeared. We characterized the role of a species in terms of both the proportion of monitored carcasses on which that species scavenged, or scavenging breadth (i.e., the species "normalized degree"), and the role of that species in the nested structure of the assemblage (i.e., the species "paired nested degree"), therefore identifying possible facilitative interactions among species. We found that species with high olfactory acuity, social foragers, and obligate scavengers had the widest scavenging breadth. We also found that social foragers had a large paired nested degree in scavenger assemblages, probably because their presence is easier to detect by other species to signal carcass occurrence. Our study highlights differences in the functional roles of scavenger species and can be used to identify key species for targeted conservation to maintain the ecological function of scavenger assemblages.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) help replenish fish assemblages, though different trophic levels may show diverse recovery patterns. Long-term protection is required to achieve total recovery but poaching events may prevent the achievement of full carrying capacity. Here, we have analysed the effect of long-term protection on the entire reef fish community and the different trophic levels in the Cabo de Palos-Islas Hormigas MPA (SE Spain; SW Mediterranean Sea) in order to assess their recovery patterns after 23 years of protection. We compared the values for carrying capacity obtained with the maximum values achieved at regional scale, and we assessed the effect of a reduction in the surveillance over a few years, during which poaching events increased, on the recovery patterns. We found that, overall, biomass of fishes increased with time while density diminished. In particular, piscivorous and macro-invertivore fish increased while the other trophic groups remained constant or declined, suggesting top-down processes. For the entire study period, those trophic groups were approaching carrying capacity; however, when accounting only for the period in which enforcement was high and constant, they grew exponentially, indicating that full carrying capacity may have not been achieved yet. When compared to other Mediterranean MPAs, the Cabo de Palos-Islas Hormigas MPA showed values for biomass that were disproportionately higher, suggesting that local factors, such as habitat structure and associated oceanographic processes, may be responsible for the dynamics found. Our results help to understand the potential trajectories of fish assemblages over a consolidated MPA and highlight empirically how the reduction of surveillance in a period may change the recovery patterns.