Abrupt transitions in ecosystems can be interconnected, raising challenges for science and management in identifying sufficient interventions to prevent them or recover from undesirable shifts. Here we use principles of network controllability to explore how difficult it is to manage coupled regime shifts. We find that coupled regime shifts are easier to manage when they share drivers, but can become harder to manage if new feedbacks are formed when coupled. Simulation experiments showed that both network structure and coupling strength matter in our ability to manage interconnected systems. This theoretical insights calls for an empirical assessment of cascading regime shifts in ecosystems and warns about our limited ability to control cascading effects.

The global food system is at a critical inflection point with rising awareness of the need for change and progress on several fronts, pertaining both human health and the environment. One of the ten critical transitions envisioned by the Food and Land Use Coalitions states that global diets need to converge towards local variations of the “human and planetary healthy diet” which includes more protective foods a diverse protein supply, and reduced consumption of sugar, salt and highly processed foods. Positive tipping points (PTP) offer a new perspective to support and boost the implementation of solutions for sustainable and healthy food systems. A PTP in the food system can be seen as critical points where targeted interventions lead to large and long-term consequences on the evolution of that system, profoundly altering its modes of operation. While discussions on food PTP dynamics are an intriguing theoretical debate, we still lack empirical evidence if and how such dynamics unfold in practice, especially in the food sector. Literature on inducing positive tipping and feedback dynamics in sustainability transitions almost exclusively focuses on the energy sector, leaving an important gap in the empirical research on the specific enabling factors for triggering these dynamics in respect to food and global diets transformation. How do different organizational, geographical, and temporal scales should interact with each other to accelerate a transition to a sustainable food system? In this study we integrate complex network theory tools with systems’ emergent properties to better define multi-scale food systems dynamics. We develop indicators (with country resolution and global coverage) to synthesize the food system’s structure and its weak and strong points where the spread of positive changes can be maximized. This quantitative framework is aimed at supporting the actions of government in repurposed agricultural subsidies, targeted public food procurement, taxes and regulations on unhealthy food; and business in redesigning product portfolio based on the human and planetary health diet.

Transformations towards sustainable futures can only be achieved with an advanced understanding of how human life is intertwined with the whole biosphere. Systems of people and nature are not separate entities but inherently connected across temporal and spatial scales. There is a dynamic interplay between the biosphere and the broader Earth system. Life in the biosphere has evolved with the basic building blocks of planet Earth, like water, carbon, nitrogen, and other biogeochemical cycles. Social conditions, such as health, culture, democracy, power, justice, equity, matters of security, and even survival, are interwoven with the Earth system and its biosphere resulting in a complex interplay of local, regional, and global interactions and dependencies. In “The Intertwined Biosphere” project at the Anthropocene Laboratory, we explore empirical evidence of biosphere-Earth system dynamics since deep time and synthesise insights that can foster radical changes towards recognising humanity’s embeddedness in the world. By doing so, we aim to contribute to narratives that bridge human-nature dialectics to foster a deeper understanding of the critical interplay of humans as part of the living biosphere. In this presentation, we share our preliminary conceptual model of the biosphere as intertwined. We invite you to discuss human embeddedness in the biosphere and new directions for guiding human actions in the Anthropocene. What are the ontological and epistemological implications of understanding the Anthropocene biosphere as intertwined complex human-nature entanglements? How to study how life shapes its own living conditions?

Ecosystems around the world are showing symptoms of resilience loss. With them there is an increasing risk of critical transitions or regime shifts: large, abrupt and difficult to reverse changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. When regime shifts occur they often impact the flow of benefits that people get from nature, and with them the ability of companies, cities or nations to satisfy human needs. Here we ask who is exposed to ecological regime shift risks, and by being exposed, who has the agency or power to intervene and perhaps avoid tipping points? To answer this question we match companies whose activities imply the use or extraction of natural resources in places vulnerable to regime shifts. First, we use Earth observations to quantify resilience loss in marine systems. We also used temeprature records to quantify the probability of extreme and severe heat wave events in the oceans. Both are conditions that can reduce primary productivity and impact fisheries. Then, we identify vessels that fish in these areas of the world and match their owners and shareholders when available in public databases. For publicly listed companies we reconstruct social networks of companies ownership and investments. The networks serve to identify financial actors exposed to ecological tipping points through several investments or regions of the world. The multilayer network can be centred around companies, shareholders, investors, or countries. Clustering at different levels of aggregation allow us to identify actors with disproportional risk exposure, but also companies, investors or countries who could make a difference in mitigating risk.

Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented human-driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. These impacts may drive coral ecosystems past critical thresholds, beyond which the system reorganises, often abruptly and potentially irreversibly; this is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) define as a tipping point. Determining tipping point thresholds for coral reef ecosystems requires a robust assessment of multiple stressors and their interactive effects. In this perspective piece, we draw upon the recent global tipping point revision initiative (Lenton et al., 2023a) and a literature search to identify and summarise the diverse range of interacting stressors that need to be considered for determining tipping point thresholds for warm-water coral reef ecosystems. Considering observed and projected stressor impacts, we endorse the global tipping point revision's conclusion of a global mean surface temperature (relative to pre-industrial) tipping point threshold of 1.2 °C (range 1–1.5 °C) and the long-term impacts of atmospheric CO2 concentrations above 350 ppm, while acknowledging that comprehensive assessment of stressors, including ocean warming response dynamics, overshoot, and cascading impacts, have yet to be sufficiently realised. These tipping point thresholds have already been exceeded, and therefore these systems are in an overshoot state and are reliant on policy actions to bring stressor levels back within tipping point limits. A fuller assessment of interacting stressors is likely to further lower the tipping point thresholds in most cases. Uncertainties around tipping points for such crucially important ecosystems underline the imperative of robust assessment and, in the case of knowledge gaps, employing a precautionary principle favouring lower-range tipping point values.

In this study we compile and integrate data on 42 indicators to examine the social, economic, governance and environmental conditions shaping aquaculture development across 150 countries, including the top 100 aqua- culture producing countries. We apply cluster analysis to identify social-ecological archetypes of aquaculture development across these indicators. We also calculate the percentage of global aquaculture production within the quartile ranges of 15 indicators of singular relevance for development. This shows how much aquaculture production is taking place in countries performing low or high on key indices. For example, we show that 85% of global aquaculture production is taking place in countries with the highest or high climate risk, 74% in countries with the lowest or low environmental performance scores, and 90% in countries with the highest or high food supply variability. Our cluster analysis identifies four distinct archetypes driven by the 42 country-level indicators, which includes: climate risk, inland water area, coastal population, seafood consumption, trade balance, governance indices and environmental performance. We characterize the four archetypes as: Archetype 1Emerging aquaculture producers, Archetype 2- Limited aquatic food engagement, Archetype 3- Developing economy aquaculture producers, Archetype 4- Wealthy economy aquaculture producers. We discuss this complexity of factors driving each archetype with country specific examples, as well as the utility of integrated social-ecological analysis for both continued aquaculture research and development practice.

In the face of Anthropogenic change, ecosystems globally have shown evidence of resilience loss in the past several decades. By governing key processes in terrestrial ecosystems, the hydrological cycle is critical for Earth system stability. A resilient system is able to retain its function and structure in the face of external perturbations. Changes to driving hydrological variables, i.e., precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, are thought to be important drivers of terrestrial ecosystem resilience, and vice-versa through land-atmosphere feedbacks. Resilience has been estimated through time series analysis, where an increase in metrics of system recovery time can signal a loss of system resilience. To date, such methods of resilience analysis have not yet been applied to hydrological variables. As a result, there is limited quantification of the role of the water cycle in Earth system resilience. Here, using remotely sensed time series data, we employ both early warning signals of resilience loss and indicators of rate-based tipping to asses resilience loss in key hydrological variables at the global scale. In doing so, we present a spatially distributed assessment of global water resilience, highlight regions vulnerable to resilience loss, and provide insights into how water resilience affects terrestrial ecosystem resilience. Changes to hydrological variables can have wide-reaching impacts on ecological (e.g., affecting biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function), and social systems (e.g., affecting crop yields in breadbasket regions). Here, we present a new dimension to the characterisation of regions vulnerable to resilience loss.

Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability will be fundamental to achieving a more sustainable future. However, deliberate interventions to reconfigure systems will result in winners and losers, with the potential for greater or lesser equity and justice outcomes. Positive tipping points (PTPs) have been proposed as interventions in complex systems with the aim to (a) reduce the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points and/or (b) increase the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. However, many narratives around PTPs often do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people (i.e. do not take “b” into account). One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the true cost of this transition. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g. of fuel) while maintaining the system structure (e.g. of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, positive where, and positive how must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives using a critical decolonial view from the south and outline their implications for the concept of tipping points.

Anthropogenic climate change, marked by unprecedented extremes, is an immediate concern. The Earth’s limited ability to adapt to abrupt changes within our societal timeframe has raised global alarm. Resilience, the capacity to withstand and recover from disturbances, diminishes as disturbances intensify. For avoiding potential catastrophic changes, it is crucial to identify tipping points, where a change in part of a system becomes self-perpetuating beyond some threshold, leading to substantial, widespread, often abrupt and irreversible, impacts. This ERL focus collection has published 27 papers, which contribute novel research findings into the scientific literature in: (1) formulating theories of resilience and tipping points, (2) determining ecological resistance, resilience, and recovery, (3) examining tipping behavior of the Earth system, and (4) identifying social-ecological resilience and tipping points. Some of these results also are useful for policymakers and resource managers in addressing catastrophic disasters as a result of increasingly anthropogenic heating.

The cascading effects of biodiversity decline on human well-being present a pressing challenge for sustainable development. Conservation efforts often prioritize safeguarding specific species, habitats, or intact ecosystems but overlook biodiversity's fundamental role in providing Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) in human -modified landscapes. Here, we systematically review 154 peer -reviewed studies to estimate the minimum levels of (semi -)natural habitat quantity, quality, and spatial configuration needed in human -modified landscapes to secure functional integrity essential for sustaining NCP provision. We find that the provision of multiple NCP is threatened when (semi -)natural habitat in the landscape falls below an area of 20%- 25% for each km2. Five NCP almost completely disappear below a level of 10% habitat. The exact quantity, quality, and spatial configuration of habitat required depends on local context and specific NCP. Today, about two-thirds of human -modified lands have insufficient (semi -)natural habitat, requiring action for NCP regeneration. Our findings serve as a generic guideline to target conservation actions outside natural areas.

Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.

Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.

A key aim of sustainable development is the joint achievement of prosperity, equality, and environmental integrity: in other words, material living standards that are high, broadly-distributed, and low-impact. This has often been called the “triple bottom line”. But instead, what if there is a “trilemma” that inhibits the simultaneous achievement of these three goals? We analysed international patterns and trends in the relationships between per-capita gross national income, the Gini coefficient for income distribution, and per-capita ecological footprint from 1995 to 2017, benchmarking them against thresholds from the existing literature. A “dynamic” analysis of the trajectories of 59 countries and a “static” analysis of a larger sample of 140 countries found that none met the triple bottom line, and that instead there were widespread tradeoffs among the three indicators. These tradeoffs, leading to divergent national trajectories and country clusters, show that common pair-wise explanations such as Kuznets Curves do not adequately capture important development dynamics. In particular, while only a few countries simultaneously met the thresholds for prosperity and equality on the one hand and equality and environment on the other, none did for prosperity and environment. Moreover, inequality likely makes resolving this critical tradeoff more difficult. Our findings suggest that mitigating the sustainability trilemma may require countries – especially those that are already prosperous – to prioritize economic redistribution and environmental stewardship over further growth.

We bring together two decades of research on cross-scale spatial and temporal connectivity of water in the Anthropocene to understand the implications for institutional fit and water governance, with a focus on river basin organizations and watershed-based bodies. There is strong evidence showing how hydrological cycles are tightly coupled across larger spatial scales than they were in the past, which implies a possible expansion of the boundaries typically considered in the study and governance of water. Temporally, frequent time lags between action and consequence and the potential for increasing concurrence of extreme events pose risks for decision-makers trying to make accurate and appropriate decisions. Both cross-scale spatial and temporal connectivity create new challenges to key principles regarding participation, deliberation and collaboration in water governance. We argue for a shift from emphasizing how governance can ‘fit’ a closed, biophysical boundary towards a stronger consideration of institutional ‘fitness’ through flexibility, responsiveness and anticipatory capacity to better support water resilience and sustainability. A review of two decades of water science and water governance scholarship shows that how, when, where and why water is available and to whom is changing as global hydrological systems are being re-shaped across spatial and temporal scales.

A crop boom is a sudden, nonlinear and intense expansion of a new crop. Despite their large impacts, boom-bust dynamics are not well understood; booms are largely unpredictable and difficult to steer once they unfold. Based on the striking resemblances between land regime shifts and crop booms, we apply complex systems theory, highlighting the potential for regime shifts, to provide new insights about crop boom dynamics. We analyse qualitative and quantitative data of rubber and banana plantation expansion in two forest frontier regions of northern Laos. We show that preconditions , including previous booms, explain the occurrence (why) of booms, and triggers like policy and market changes explain their timing (when). Yet, the most important features of booms, their intensity and nonlinearity (how), strongly depended on internal self-reinforcing feedbacks . We identify built-in feedbacks (neighbourhood effects and imitation) and emergent feedbacks (land rush) and show that they were social in nature, multi-scale from plot to region and subject to thresholds. We suggest that these are regular features of booms and propose a definition and causal-mechanistic explanation of crop booms, examining the overlap between booms and regime shifts and the role of frontiers. We then identify opportunities for management interventions before, during and after booms.

Operating within safe and just Earth system boundaries requires mobilizing key actors across scale to set targets and take actions accordingly. Robust, transparent and fair cross-scale translation methods are essential to help navigate through the multiple steps of scientific and normative judgements in translation, with clear awareness of associated assumptions, bias and uncertainties. Here, through literature review and expert elicitation, we identify commonly used sharing approaches, illustrate ten principles of translation and present a protocol involving key building blocks and control steps in translation. We pay particular attention to businesses and cities, two understudied but critical actors to bring on board. Translating Earth system boundaries across scale involves scientific and normative judgements, with associated assumptions, bias and uncertainties. A protocol involving key building blocks and control steps in translation is presented with focus on businesses and cities, two understudied critical actors.

Ecosystem services (ES) have gained significant attention in recent years from the global environmental initiatives that involve science and policy. Multiple scholars have analyzed how ES are integrated with environmental policies, plans, and strategic assessments. However, there is a lack of information on how countries translate these policies, plans and assessments into concrete environmental management actions that integrate an explicit ES approach. To help fill this gap, we analyze how the Colombian Regional Autonomous Corporations (CARs) have used the ES approach in their environmental management projects implemented between 2004 and 2015. This study aims to analyze the type and diversity of ES managed by the CARs, as well as the synergies, trade-offs, and bundles of ES prioritized by them. We used content analysis of the CARs reports and statistical analysis to explore whether CARs explicitly use the ES concept. Our results showed that provisioning, regulating, and cultural ES were similarly prioritized by the CARs, however, explicit mention of ES was limited. Regulating services showed remarkable potential for synergies, and there was a pattern of trade-offs between cultural and some regulating and provisioning services. We found three bundles of ES: "Restoration and conservation of agrosystems", "Mosaic of services" and "Farming and fibers" occupying, respectively, 9, 36 and 55% of the total area of Colombia. Our findings show that multiple ES are targeted and affected by environmental management actions. The contribution of this study has the potential to inform adequately policy decisions to be used in environmental management and planning practices to prioritize areas for maximizing ES provision.

Abstract. Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented Anthropogenic driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse, functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. Determining the tipping point thresholds of coral reef ecosystems requires robust assessment of multiple stressors and their interactive effects. We draw upon a literature search and the recent Global Tipping Points Revision initiative to consider warm-water coral reef ecosystem tipping point threshold sensitivity. Considering observed and projected stressor impacts we recognise a global mean surface temperature (relative to pre-industrial) tipping point threshold of 1.2 °C (range 0.7–1.5 °C) and an atmospheric CO2 warming threshold of 350 ppm (range 326–400 ppm), whilst acknowledging that interacting stressors, ocean warming response time, overshoot and cascading impacts have yet to be sufficiently assessed but are likely to lower this threshold. These uncertainties around tipping point sensitivities for such a crucially important ecosystem underlines the imperative of robust assessment and, in the case of knowledge gaps, employing a precautionary principle favouring the lower range tipping point values.