Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate change. However, the success of flexible approaches in practice depends on the stability of the relevant organizational landscapes. In this paper, we draw upon key insights from the institutional theories of organizations and research on public administration and climate adaptation in Sweden. We argue that potential organizational instabilities pose a substantial challenge for the mainstreaming of flexible approaches to climate adaptation. Given the unstable character of the relevant organizational landscape in a very stable country such as Sweden, it seems reasonable to also seriously doubt the capacity of the relevant authorities in less stable countries to carry out a great number of monitoring-intensive, and hence attention-demanding, adaptive governance processes over time. Based on our results we argue that it is perilous to simply assume that flexible approaches to climate adaptation will lead to greater robustness.

The future of forests is a controversial issue in Sweden and elsewhere. Different stakeholder groups differ in the importance they give to roles they envision forests should have in, for example, the national economy, the protection of biodiversity and sustainable use of ecosystem services, and in mitigating climate change. We used participatory backcasting, a solution-oriented form of scenario analysis, as a method to identify stakeholders' various views as to what constitutes a desirable future forest in Sweden. By involving key stakeholders, we wanted to explore how to broaden the scope of potential solutions to the controversial issue of forest futures by analyzing goals, measures and policy instruments in order to form a bridge between stakeholders' policy objectives, and the instruments and support tools they would like to use to implement those policies. Preferences for particular policy instruments varied considerably among the stakeholder groups. In line with the literature, our study confirms that policy instruments are not mere empty vessels, but represent particular policy ideas, objectives and outlooks, and can show how stakeholders want forests to be governed in the future.

Assessing risks and vulnerabilities in the multifaceted context of a municipality is challenging. There is a plethora of methods and tools to support this task. However, to achieve successful outcomes from Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (RVAs), merely applying theoretically and technically rigorous methods is far from enough; the question of how a method is implemented in a practical context is crucial for reaching intended outcomes. In this paper, we broaden the scope, from a strict consideration of technical and methodological matters, to a presentation of the more elusive challenges in accomplishing RVAs that are actually useful in a local context. We conduct and contrast two independent studies that were aimed at identifying general challenges in achieving a successful RVA process in Swedish municipalities. Based on the findings, we argue that there is a need for a considerably increased focus on municipal practices and on the implementation of methods in the practical context. Knowledge and understanding of such practical challenges are pivotal for efforts aimed at both developing methods for RVA and improving the entire RVA process.

The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome.

Handling uncertainties is a major challenge in climate change adaptation. A variety of robust decision support approaches that aim for better management of uncertainty have recently been emerging and are used in environmental planning. The present study examined to what extent existing processes of planning for future sea-level rise in Sweden utilised similar approaches. Three core principles of robust decision support approaches were identified and used as a tool for analyzing five cases of planning for future sea-level rise in companies and authorities at different levels in society. The results show that planning processes typically do not embrace uncertainties, do not use a bottom-up approach and do not specifically aim for robustness, which points to a discrepancy between current planning paradigms and the core principles of robust decision support approaches.

In this study, we analyse and discuss the possible impacts on the Swedish society of a volcanic eruption on Iceland, emitting ash particles and large quantities of sulphur dioxide. A scenario was developed, based on the historical Laki eruption of 1783–1784, to describe the content of a potential sulphur fog over time in Sweden. Due to its high complexity and the many uncertainties in the underpinning scientific data, the scenario was developed using a cross-disciplinary approach incorporating experts from different scientific fields. An analysis of the impacts of the hazard on human health, environment and technical equipment was then performed and, finally, representatives from national authorities assessed the overall societal challenges in responding to the consequences of a massive volcanic eruption. The analysis shows that it is the peak concentrations of sulphur dioxide and sulphuric acid rather than the longer periods of moderate concentrations that contribute most to the negative consequences for human health and environment. Altogether, three societal challenges were identified: the ability to compile and disseminate relevant information fast enough, to perform continuous measurements of concentrations of different substances in affected areas and to meet the large demand for medical care.

Conflicting perspectives on forests has for a long time challenged forest policy development in Sweden. Disagreements about forest futures create intractable deadlocks when stakeholders talk past each other. The purpose of this study is to move beyond this situation through the application of participatory backcasting. By comparing visions of the future forest among stakeholder groups, we highlight contemporary trajectories and identify changes that were conceived as desirable. We worked with four groups: the Biomass and Bioenergy group, the Conservation group, the Sami Livelihood group and the Recreation and Rural Development group; in total representatives from 40 organizations participated in workshops articulating the groups’ visions. Our results show well-known tensions such as intrinsic versus instrumental values but also new ones concerning forests’ social values. Identified synergies include prioritization of rural development, new valued-added forest products and diversified forest management. The results may feed directly into forest policy processes facilitating the process and break current deadlocks.

Climate change is an important new challenge for local authorities. This study analyses the potential for using the Swedish mandatory process for risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) as a vehicle to improve local climate adaptation work. An advantage with RVA is its comprehensive approach in dealing with all relevant threats and all vital functions of society. In order to test the applicability of incorporating climate adaptation into RVA, we studied practical experiences from three Swedish municipalities. In all municipalities, a pre-study to identify relevant climate-induced events was performed. In one municipality, this was followed by a more detailed analysis of the potential impacts of these events on the functions of the various administrations and companies within the local authority. Problems identified in successful integration of climate change into the municipal RVA process were lack of sufficient knowledge to identify the impacts of climate change on the level of the respective specialist or district administration and lack of resources to perform the analysis. There were also some difficulties in including a long-term perspective relevant for climate adaptation into RVA, which usually focuses on current threats. A positive outcome was that work on extreme climate events in RVA provided a traceable method to identify events with a potentially great impact on the function of local society and results that could be fed into other ongoing processes, such as spatial planning and housing plans.