Solar particle events (SPEs) are short-lived bursts of high-energy particles from the solar atmosphere and are widely recognized as posing significant economic risks to modern society. Most SPEs are relatively weak and have minor impacts on the Earth's environment, but historic records contain much stronger SPEs which have the potential to alter atmospheric chemistry, impacting climate and biological life. The impacts of such strong SPEs would be far more severe when the Earth's protective geomagnetic field is weak, such as during past geomagnetic excursions or reversals. Here, we model the impacts of an extreme SPE under different geomagnetic field strengths, focusing on changes in atmospheric chemistry and surface radiation using the atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL3-MPIOM and the radiation transfer model LibRadtran. Under current geomagnetic conditions, an extreme SPE would increase NOx concentrations in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere, causing reductions in extratropical stratospheric ozone lasting for about a year. In contrast, with no geomagnetic field, there would be a substantial increase in NOx throughout the entire atmosphere, resulting in severe stratospheric ozone depletion for several years. The resulting ground-level ultraviolet (UV) radiation would remain elevated for up to 6 y, leading to increases in UV index up to 20 to 25% and solar-induced DNA damage rates by 40 to 50%. The potential evolutionary impacts of past extreme SPEs remain an important question, while the risks they pose to human health in modern conditions continue to be underestimated.

The open solar flux (OSF) is the integrated unsigned magnetic flux leaving the top of the solar atmosphere to form the heliospheric magnetic field. As the OSF modulates the intensity of galactic cosmic rays at Earth, the production rate of cosmogenic isotopes – such as 14 C and 10 Be stored in tree rings and ice sheets – is closely related to the OSF. Thus on the basis of cosmogenic isotope data, OSF can be reconstructed over millennia. As sunspots are related to the production of OSF, this provides the possibility of reconstructing sunspot number (SSN) and hence properties of the solar cycles prior to the first sunspot telescopic observations in 1610. However, while models exist for estimating OSF on the basis of SSN, the hysteresis present in OSF and the lack of a priori knowledge of the start/end dates of individual solar cycles means that directly inverting these models is not possible. We here describe a new method that uses a forward model of OSF to estimate SSN and solar cycle start/end dates through a Monte Carlo approach. The method is tested by application to geomagnetic reconstructions of OSF over the period 1845-present, and compared to the known SSN record for this period. There is a substantial improvement in reconstruction of both the SSN time series and the solar cycle start/end dates compared with existing OSF-SSN regression methods. This suggests that more accurate solar-cycle information can be extracted from cosmogenic isotope records by forward modelling, and also provides a means to assess the level of agreement between independent SSN and OSF reconstructions. We find the geomagnetic OSF and observed SSN agree very well after 1875, but do differ during the early part of the geomagnetic record, though still agree within the larger observational uncertainties.

The original real-time analog heritage data from the Huancayo recording ionization chamber is differentiated to yield 15-60 s reso-lution of the first 15 min of the cosmic ray Ground-Level Event (GLE) of 23 February 1956. The initial High-Energy Impulsive (HEI) event of >12.5-20 GeV solar cosmic rays has a rise time of 2 min 15 s with an exponential rise time constant of 49 s, a fluctuating peak pulse of duration 5-7 min, followed by an abrupt decrease of <1 min duration to-33% of the peak flux. Detailed analysis of these data shows close consistency with the Carmichael-Sturrock-Hirayama-Kopp-Pneuman (CSHKP) standard flare model. The <49-second acceleration time to >12.5 GeV is explicable in terms of any one of three separate mechanisms: super-Dreier electric acceleration, sta-tistical (Fermi first order), and shock acceleration deep in the corona. The fluctuating solar cosmic ray flux, the abrupt cessation, and the strong cosmic ray anisotropy on arrival at Earth are consistent with the acceleration event consisting of a sequence of short-lived reconnection events within the parent active center. In addition, the HEI event had a duration and time domain profile similar to the gyro-synchrotron emission from electrons associated with the initial acceleration event in the CSHKP model, and the observation of a white light flare towards the end of the microwave pulse. The properties of the GLE-5 HEI event are similar to those accompanying ten other previously studied large GLEs to the west of 240 West on the solar disk. We conclude that the historic high-resolution data from the GLE on 23 February 1956 demonstrate previously unknown properties of the HEI event that are all consistent with cosmic ray acceleration to 25 GeV by the CSHKP and similar flare magnetic reconnection models. A slowly varying and smaller increase com-menced 6 min after the commencement of the HEI event and rose steadily to a maximum-40 min later. This is consistent with several models of acceleration in association with the coronal mass ejection generated by the flare. (c) 2023 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Description Our study on the exact timing and the potential climatic, environmental, and evolutionary consequences of the Laschamps Geomagnetic Excursion has generated the hypothesis that geomagnetism represents an unrecognized driver in environmental and evolutionary change. It is important for this hypothesis to be tested with new data, and encouragingly, none of the studies presented by Picin et al. undermine our model.

Geological archives record multiple reversals of Earth's magnetic poles, but the global impacts of these events, if any, remain unclear. Uncertain radiocarbon calibration has limited investigation of the potential effects of the last major magnetic inversion, known as the Laschamps Excursion [41 to 42 thousand years ago (ka)]. We use ancient New Zealand kauri trees (Agathis australis) to develop a detailed record of atmospheric radiocarbon levels across the Laschamps Excursion. We precisely characterize the geomagnetic reversal and perform global chemistry-climate modeling and detailed radiocarbon dating of paleoenvironmental records to investigate impacts. We find that geomagnetic field minima ~42 ka, in combination with Grand Solar Minima, caused substantial changes in atmospheric ozone concentration and circulation, driving synchronous global climate shifts that caused major environmental changes, extinction events, and transformations in the archaeological record.

Major solar eruptions occasionally direct interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to Earth and cause significant geomagnetic storms and low-latitude aurorae. While individual extreme storms are significant threats to modern civilization, storms occasionally appear in sequence, acting synergistically, and cause “perfect storms” on Earth. The stormy interval in 1938 January was one of such cases. Here, we analyze the contemporary records to reveal its time series on their source active regions, solar eruptions, ICMEs, geomagnetic storms, low-latitude aurorae, and cosmic-ray (CR) variations. Geomagnetic records show that three storms occurred successively on January 17/18 (Dcx ≈ −171 nT), January 21/22 (Dcx ≈ −328 nT), and January 25/26 (Dcx ≈ −336 nT). The amplitudes of the CR variations and storm sudden commencements (SSCs) show the impact of the first ICME as the largest (≈6% decrease in CR and 72 nT in SSC) and the ICMEs associated with the storms that followed as more moderate (≈3% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC; ≈2% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC). Interestingly, a significant solar proton event occurred on January 16/17 and the Cheltenham ionization chamber showed a possible ground-level enhancement. During the first storm, aurorae were less visible at midlatitudes, whereas, during the second and third storms, the equatorward boundaries of the auroral oval were extended down to 40.3° and 40.0° in invariant latitude. This contrast shows that the initial ICME was probably faster, with a higher total magnitude but a smaller southward component.

Context: Cosmogenic isotopes provide useful estimates of past solar magnetic activity, constraining past space climate with reasonable uncertainty. Much less is known about past space weather conditions. Recent advances in the analysis of 10Be by McCracken & Beer (2015, Sol Phys 290: 305–3069) (MB15) suggest that annually resolved 10Be can be significantly affected by solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. This poses a problem, and presents an opportunity, as the accurate quantification of past solar magnetic activity requires the SEP effects to be determined and isolated, whilst doing so might provide a valuable record of past SEP fluxes. Aims: We compare the MB15 reconstruction of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), with two independent estimates of the HMF derived from sunspot records and geomagnetic variability. We aim to quantify the differences between the HMF reconstructions, and speculate on the origin of these differences. We test whether the differences between the reconstructions appear to depend on known significant space weather events. Methods: We analyse the distributions of the differences between the HMF reconstructions. We consider how the differences vary as a function of solar cycle phase, and, using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we compare the distributions under the two conditions of whether or not large space weather events were known to have occurred. Results: We find that the MB15 reconstructions are generally marginally smaller in magnitude than the sunspot and geomagnetic HMF reconstructions. This bias varies as a function of solar cycle phase, and is largest in the declining phase of the solar cycle. We find that MB15's excision of the years with very large ground level enhancement (GLE) improves the agreement of the 10Be HMF estimate with the sunspot and geomagnetic reconstructions. We find no statistical evidence that GLEs, in general, affect the MB15 reconstruction, but this analysis is limited by having too few samples. We do find evidence that the MB15 reconstructions appear statistically different in years with great geomagnetic storms.

We study the temporal intensity profile, or pulse shape, of cosmic ray ground-level enhancements (GLEs) by calculating the rise ( τ_r) and decay (τ_d) times for a small subset of all available events. Although these quantities show very large inter-event variability, a linear dependence of τ_d≈ 3.5 τ_r is found. We interpret these observational findings in terms of an interplanetary transport model, thereby including the effects of scattering (in pitch-angle) as these particles propagate from (near) the Sun to Earth. It is shown that such a model can account for the observed trends in the pulse shape, illustrating that interplanetary transport must be taken into account when studying GLE events, especially their temporal profiles. Furthermore, depending on the model parameters, the pulse shape of GLEs may be determined entirely by interplanetary scattering, obscuring all information regarding the initial acceleration process, and hence making a classification between impulsive and gradual events, as is traditionally done, superfluous.

Enhancements of the comic-ray intensity as observed by detectors on the ground have been observed 71 times since 1942. They are due to solar energetic particles accelerated in the regions of solar flares deep in the corona, or in the shock front of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. The latter is the favoured model for the classical gradual ground-level enhancement (GLE). In several papers since the one of McCracken et al. (2008), we pointed out, however, that some GLEs are too impulsive to be accelerated in the CME shocks. With this hypothesis in mind we study the time profiles of all the available GLEs. The main results are that there is a continuous range from gradual to impulsive, that the fastest risers are concentrated at heliolongitudes that are magnetically well-connected to Earth, and that the shape of the pulse is a powerful indicator of propagation conditions between Sun and Earth. This ranges from relatively quiet to highly disturbed.

We present two separate time series of the near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength (B) based on geomagnetic data and sunspot number (SSN). The geomagnetic-based B series from 1845 to 2013 is a weighted composite of two series that employ the interdiurnal variability index; this series is highly correlated with in situ spacecraft measurements of B (correlation coefficient, r=0.94; mean square error, MSE=0.16nT(2)). The SSN-based estimate of B, from 1750 to 2013, is a weighted composite of eight time series derived from two separate reconstruction methods applied to four different SSN time series, allowing determination of the uncertainty from both the underlying sunspot records and the B reconstruction methods. The SSN-based composite is highly correlated with direct spacecraft measurements of B and with the composite geomagnetic B time series from 1845 to 2013 (r=0.91; MSE=0.24nT(2)), demonstrating that B can accurately reconstructed by both geomagnetic and sunspot-based methods. The composite sunspot and geomagnetic B time series, with uncertainties, are provided as supporting information.

This is Part 2 of a study of the near‐Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength, B, since 1750. Part 1 produced composite estimates of B from geomagnetic and sunspot data over the period 1750–2013. Sunspot‐based reconstructions can be extended back to 1610, but the paleocosmic ray (PCR) record is the only data set capable of providing a record of solar activity on millennial timescales. The process for converting 10Be concentrations measured in ice cores to B is more complex than with geomagnetic and sunspot data, and the uncertainties in B derived from cosmogenic nuclides (~20% for any individual year) are much larger. Within this level of uncertainty, we find reasonable overall agreement between PCR‐based B and the geomagnetic‐ and sunspot number‐based series. This agreement was enhanced by excising low values in PCR‐based B attributed to high‐energy solar proton events. Other discordant intervals, with as yet unspecified causes remain included in our analysis. Comparison of 3 year averages centered on sunspot minimum yields reasonable agreement between the three estimates, providing a means to investigate the long‐term changes in the heliospheric magnetic field into the past even without a means to remove solar proton events from the records.

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle “4b”. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the “no SC4b” scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the “SC4b” scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the “no SC4b” scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

The annual cosmogenic \(^{10}\mathrm{Be}\) ice-core data from Dye 3 and the North Greenland Ice-core Project (NGRIP), and neutron-monitor data, 1951 – 2014, are combined to yield a record of the annual cosmic-ray intensity, 1391 – 2014. These data were then used to estimate the intensity of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), 1391 – 1983. All of these annual data are provided in the Electronic Supplementary Material. Analysis of these annual data shows that there were significant impulsive increases in \(^{10}\mathrm{Be}\) production in the year following the very large solar cosmic-ray events of 1942, 1949, and 1956. There was an additional enhancement that we attribute to six high-altitude nuclear explosions in 1962. All of these enhancements result in underestimates of the strength of the HMF. An identification process is defined, resulting in a total of seven impulsive \(^{10}\mathrm{Be}\) events in the interval 1800 – 1942 prior to the first detection of a solar cosmic-ray event using ionization chambers. Excision of the \(^{10}\mathrm{Be}\) impulsive enhancements yields a new estimate of the HMF, designated B(PCR-2). Five of the seven \(^{10}\mathrm{Be}\) enhancements prior to 1941 are well correlated with the occurrence of very great geomagnetic storms. It is shown that a solar cosmic-ray event similar to that of 25 July 1946, and occurring in the middle of the second or third year of the solar cycle, may merge with the initial decreasing phase of the 11-year cycle in cosmic-ray intensity and be unlikely to be detected in the \(^{10}\mathrm{Be}\) data. It is concluded that the occurrence rate for solar energetic-particle (SEP) events such as that on 23 February 1956 is about seven per century, and that there is an upper limit to the size of solar cosmic-ray events.

Observations of the Sun's corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

Recent papers have linked the heliospheric magnetic flux to the sunspot cycle with good correlation observed between prediction and observation. Other papers have shown a strong correlation between magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux from coronal holes. We combine these efforts with an expectation that the sunspot activity of the approaching solar minimum will resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum and predict that the magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux over the coming decade will be lower than at any time during the space age. Using these predictions and established theory, we also predict record high galactic cosmic ray intensities over the same years. The analysis shown here is a prediction of global space climate change within which space weather operates. It predicts a new parameter regime for the transient space weather behavior that can be expected during the coming decade.

Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic 10Be and 14C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being < 10−5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈ 172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈ 112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤ five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies.

We use cosmic radiation records (neutron monitor and the cosmogenic radionuclides, 10Be and 14C) as a proxy to compare the solar activity during the extended solar minimum 2006–2009, with that during the Grand Solar Minima and Maxima that occurred between 1391 and 2010. The inferred cosmic ray intensities during the Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton Grand Minima were significantly greater than those during 2006–2009. The onset phases of the three Grand Minima extended over between two and five Schwabe (sunspot) cycles, the cosmic ray intensity at the Schwabe minima increasing from a value approximating that of 2006–2009, to substantially higher values later in the Grand Minimum. The minimum estimated strengths of the heliospheric magnetic field near Earth during the Grand Minima were 2.4 nT (Spoerer), <2.0 nT (Maunder), and 2.6 nT (Dalton), compared to 3.9 nT in 2009. We conclude that the periods of highest solar activity during the Maunder Minimum approximated those near the sunspot minima between 1954 and 1996. The average ratio of the maximum to minimum estimated HMF in the six Schwabe cycles in the Maunder Minimum is 1.54 (range 1.30–1.85) compared to 1.52 (1.31–1.63) for the modern epoch suggesting similar operation of the solar dynamo in both intervals. The onset phase of the Maunder Minimum extending over five Schwabe cycles, and the large increase in cosmic ray flux (and decrease in estimated heliospheric magnetic field), leads us to speculate that the magnetohydrodynamic amplification in the solar dynamo exhibits a relaxation time well in excess of the 11 year period of the Schwabe cycle.

Context. Understanding the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its impact on the Earth's environment. Direct observations of the sunspots since 1610 reveal an irregular activity cycle with an average period of about 11 years, which is modulated on longer timescales. Proxies of solar activity such as C-14 and Be-10 show consistently longer cycles with well-defined periodicities and varying amplitudes. Current models of solar activity assume that the origin and modulation of solar activity lie within the Sun itself; however, correlations between direct solar activity indices and planetary configurations have been reported on many occasions. Since no successful physical mechanism was suggested to explain these correlations, the possible link between planetary motion and solar activity has been largely ignored.Aims. While energy considerations clearly show that the planets cannot be the direct cause of the solar activity, it remains an open question whether the planets can perturb the operation of the solar dynamo. Here we use a 9400 year solar activity reconstruction derived from cosmogenic radionuclides to test this hypothesis.Methods. We developed a simple physical model for describing the time-dependent torque exerted by the planets on a non-spherical tachocline and compared the corresponding power spectrum with that of the reconstructed solar activity record.Results. We find an excellent agreement between the long-term cycles in proxies of solar activity and the periodicities in the planetary torque and also that some periodicities remain phase-locked over 9400 years.Conclusions. Based on these observations we put forward the idea that the long-term solar magnetic activity is modulated by planetary effects. If correct, our hypothesis has important implications for solar physics and the solar-terrestrial connection.

As first recognized by Lal and Peters, the cosmogenic radionuclides, Be-10 and C-14, provide a record of the time dependent changes in the intensity of the galactic cosmic radiation at Earth in the past. We now have three independent cosmogenic records, each spanning the past 10,000 years, that allow us to compare the cosmic radiation intensity and solar activity during the modern "space era" with those since the end of the last glacial epoch. They show that the Sun has experienced twenty-six extended periods of low activity, called "Grand Minima", each similar to the Maunder Minimum (1650-1715). During such times, the near earth cosmic radiation intensity in the vicinity of 3GeV was a factor of 2-3 greater than during the "space era". The paleo-cosmic ray (PCR) data exhibit a number of persistent periodicities that modulate the amplitude of the 11-year cycle of cosmic ray intensity. The most prominent are the Gleissberg (similar to 87 y); the de Vries (similar to 208 y); the Eddy (similar to 978 y) and the Hallstatt (similar to 2320 y) periodicities. The Hallstatt periodicity is responsible for the sequence of "Grand Minima" that occurred between the 11th and 19th centuries, and a similar one thousand yearlong sequence that occurred similar to 6000 yrs. ago. These periods of low solar activity were accompanied by "little ice ages". The speaker will outline the manner in which the present day high quality PCR record is providing the means to study the properties of the solar dynamo, and "space weather" in the past, and permit projections to be made into the future.