Human activities substantially reduce net ecosystem productivity (NEP) globally, yet debates remain over the contributions of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC), such as afforestation (afforestation and reforestation), versus non-LUCC ecosystem management (EM; e.g., forest tending, mountain forest restoration, and fire control). Here, we developed an analytical framework by harmonizing structurally consistent remote sensing-driven and climate-driven ecological process models to quantify the dynamic effects of LUCC and eight EM types on NEP from 2001 to 2021 in China by isolating anthropogenic effects from global change factors. We found that the NEP, which averaged 327 Tg C yr–1 across the 9.6×106 km2 country, increased at a rate of 16.1 Tg C yr–2. Forest management, including forest tending (5.53 Tg C yr–2) and mountain forest restoration (2.7 Tg C yr–2), primarily drove carbon sink increases. Although afforestation induced greater NEP growth per unit area, the total effect of forest management—due to its much greater coverage—was 4.14 times greater than that of afforestation (1.6 Tg C yr–2). Notably, the acceleration of China’s NEP after 2010 was closely associated with intensified forest management efforts. Moreover, the rate of NEP gains caused by forest tending investment (8.54 kg C yr–2 $–1) was much greater than that caused by afforestation investment (0.25 kg C yr–2 $–1). Our findings highlight the critical role of forest management in cost-effectively enhancing the carbon sink. This has important implications for global forest management strategies and achieving net-zero emissions. Forest management primarily drives the carbon sink enhancement in China from 2001 to 2021, achieving carbon gains at a rate over 4 times higher than afforestation, according to an integrated framework combining remote sensing-driven and climate-driven process models.

Enhancing net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and water yield (WY) services is critical for sustainable ecosystem management and water security. In 2010, China established National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZs) to restore ecosystems. However, their impacts on carbon-water services dynamics remains poorly quantified. Using a calibrated process-based model (CEVSA-ES), we assessed the effects of vegetation restoration (greening and vegetation type changes) and global climate changes (climate change, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition) on the shifts in NEP and WY trends relative to NKEFZ implementation. Over 2001-2021, both NEP and WY exhibited increasing trends (5.1 Tg C yr(-2) and 0.3 mm yr(-1), respectively), and were the most evident in the water and soil conservation zones, biodiversity maintenance zones, and water conservation zones, respectively. Notably, following the NKEFZs establishment, NEP growth accelerated remarkably from 1.9 Tg C yr(-2) (2001-2010) to 5.6 Tg C yr(-2) (2011-2021), particularly within water conservation zones, whereas WY trends reversed from a decline (-0.5 mm yr(-1)) to an increase (0.9 mm yr(-1)). While greening drove NEP growth and precipitation governed WY changes during 2001-2021, the post-2010 NEP acceleration was jointly controlled by vegetation restoration and global climate change. Conversely, the WY trend reversal was primarily attributed to shifts in precipitation trends. These findings provide critical insights into how ecological policies can synergistically enhance carbon and water services under a changing climate, offering important implications for sustainable ecological restoration and natural climate solutions.

The widespread tea plantations in China provide significant economic value and sequester atmospheric CO _2 . However, the removal contribution of carbon sequestration to carbon emissions (CEs) in tea plantations remains unclear. Using the data of tea plantation areas and tea production of 16 provinces during 1978–2020, this study quantified the amount of carbon sequestration by vegetation and soil, and CE from fertilization, pesticide, diesel, energy and soil in tea plantations in China, and compared their removal contributions. The results showed that the continuous changes of carbon sequestration and CE in tea plantation, the amount of carbon sequestration in tea plantation increased from 1.73 –18.83 Tg C·yr ^−1 from 1978 to 2020, with the average carbon sequestration capacity of 6.63 Mg C·ha ^−1 . The annual CE increased continuously from 3.52–10.54 Tg C·yr ^−1 , with an average CE of 5.10 Mg C·ha ^−1 . Therefore, the annual residual quantities after carbon removal increased from −1.99–8.29 Tg C·yr ^−1 between 1978 and 2020, and the annual residual proportions increased from −115.12% in 1978 to 44.03% in 2020. The carbon removal contribution of tea plantations in China was drastically promoted and varied significantly among the 16 provinces, the ecological management practices of tea plantations in Shandong and Guizhou provinces should be improved to promote their carbon removal contributions.

Ecosystem engineering-driven land-use change (LUCC) and global changes (climate change, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition) profoundly affect net ecosystem productivity (NEP), yet their temporal dynamics remain unclear. Using a process-based model, we evaluated their effects on NEP in China's ecosystem engineering zones from 2001 to 2021. Results showed an average NEP of 256 Tg C yr-1, increasing at a rate of 11.3 Tg C yr-2, primarily driven by afforestation (effect increasing at 2.9 Tg C yr-2) and elevated CO2 (effect increasing at 5.6 Tg C yr-2)-higher than that of climate change (0.4 Tg C yr-2). LUCC-global change interactions strengthened, contributing 27 % (2001-2010) to 32.1 % (2011-2021) of the LUCC effect, primarily due to increasing CO2 and shifting precipitation. Furthermore, we identified optimal climatic spaces (precipitation: 750-2600 mm, temperature: 10-25 degrees C) that enhanced interactions. Restricting afforestation to these areas could enhance NEP by 65 %. Our findings highlight afforestation's persistent carbon sink potential under global change, providing key insights for optimizing sustainable land management.

China's terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink (TCS) is crucial for the global carbon budget. However, little is known how the enhanced human disturbances and increased extreme climate events may potentially destabilize TCS under warming climate. Using three process-based ecosystem models, we simulated the spatiotemporal variations of China's terrestrial net ecosystem productivity (NEP) from 2000 to 2020. We found that 26.7 % of the land area exhibit simultaneous increases in NEP temporal variability and autocorrelation during this period, indicating an increasing risk of TCS destabilization. Particularly, the southeastern subtropical monsoon region in China emerged as a hot-spot of potentially increasing NEP instability, despite its high carbon sink capacity, both NEP temporal variability and autocorrelation in this area exhibit a notable upward trend. Climate change, notably increasing precipitation and its temporal variation, appeared to be the primary driver of this instability. This harbinger implies that a regime shift in carbon sink capacity may occur as the warming climate continues to push it to the verge of stability.

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau provides essential ecosystem services that sustain local livelihoods and shape regional water supply, climate regulation, and biodiversity conservation. Establishing nature reserves that facilitate the coordinated enhancement of multiple ecosystem services is essential for ensuring ecological security and sustainable resource governance. This study highlights the importance of incorporating policymakers’ evolving preferences into the design and implementation of nature reserve strategies. We quantified six services—grass production, water yield, carbon sequestration, temperature regulation, soil retention, and sand fixation—using InVEST, USLE, and RWEQ. Using an Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) multi-criteria framework, we evaluated 11 risk-graded policy scenarios to identify spatially optimal reserves. Incorporating decision-making preferences into reserve planning enables the development of more adaptive and effective conservation strategies, thereby enhancing long-term ecological sustainability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Increased ecological land (IEL) such as forests and grasslands can greatly enhance ecosystem carbon sinks. Understanding the mechanisms for the magnitude of IEL-induced ecosystem carbon sinks is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. We estimated the impact of IEL, specifically the increase in forests and grasslands, as well as global changes including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and climate change on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZs) in China using a calibrated ecological process model. The NEP in NKEFZs in China was calculated to be 119.4 Tg C yr−1, showing an increase of 42.6 Tg C yr−1 from 2001 to 2021. Compared to the slight contributions of climate change (−8.0%), nitrogen deposition (11.5%), and reduction in ecological land (−3.5%), the increase in NEP was primarily attributed to CO2 (66.5%) and IEL (33.5%). Moreover, the effect of IEL (14.8 Tg C yr−1) surpassed that of global change (13.1 Tg C yr−1) in the land use change zone. The IEL-induced NEP is significantly associated with CO2 fertilization, regulated by precipitation and nitrogen deposition. The high values of IEL-induced NEP occurred in areas with precipitation exceeding 800 mm and nitrogen deposition exceeding 25 kg N ha−1 yr−1. We recommend prioritizing the expansion of ecological land in areas with sufficient water and nutrients to enhance CO2 fertilization, while avoiding increasing ecological land in regions facing unfavorable climate change conditions. This study serves as a foundation for comprehending the NEP response to ecological restoration and global change.

Research on ecosystem services flow has attracted increasing interest as they provide essential knowledge to payments for ecosystem services (PES) by developing the spatial relationship between service benefit area and service providing area. In this study, we calculated the wind erosion prevention service (WEPS) in the Hunshandake region using the RWEQ model, simulated the WEPS flow trajectories using the HYSPLIT model, investigated the flow process of WEPS and its monetary values to develop the relationship between the beneficiary areas and the Hunshandake region, with the aim of proposing an integrated PES framework that links beneficiary areas to the Hunshandake region. The results indicated that the WEPS in the Hunshandake region were 2.67 x 10(12) kg yr(-1), 2.18 x 10(12) kg yr(-1), and 3.26 x 10(12) kg yr(-1) in 2010, 2015 and 2018, respectively, and their monetary values were 3.94 x 10(9) USD yr(-1), 3.50 x 10(9) USD yr(-1), and 4.93 x 10(9) USD yr(-1), respectively. Most WEPS were transferred along the track to northern and northeastern China and continued on to Mongolia, Russia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan, while some were transported through central and eastern China to southern China and Southeast Asian countries. The Chinese beneficiary regions received between 69.75% and 70.81% of the total transferred WEPS from the Hunshandake region, with beneficiary countries outside of China receiving the remainder. We developed an integrated ecological payment framework based on the transferred values of WEPS and their demands in the beneficiary areas. The total payments for WEPS from beneficiary areas were 503.91 x 10(6) USD yr(-1), 422.83 x 10(6) USD yr(-1), and 609.18 x 10(6) USD yr(-1) in 2010, 2015 and 2018, respectively. The ecological payments due from the beneficiary countries except China, the beneficiary provinces in China and the actual payments made as ecological fiscal transfers (EFT) from the Government of China; their percentages were 10.24%, 35.42% and 54.34%, respectively. Actualization of payments from benefitting countries and provinces within China were simulated with the percentage of EFT to the total transferred benefits in China decreasing from 60.54% to 40% and 20%; the value of payments from government would then reduce from 95.71 x 10(6) USD yr(-1) to 63.24 x 10(6) USD yr(-1) and 31.62 x 10(6) USD yr(-1), respectively, alleviating the financial burden of government substantially. This study could provide a scientific basis for the government of China to formulate policies for payments from beneficiary provinces to Hunshandake region within China and facilitate negotiations with other countries on their potential payments to Hunshandake region providing WEPS to their benefit.

Increased ecological land (IEL) such as forests and grasslands can greatly enhance ecosystem carbon sinks. Understanding the mechanisms for the magnitude of IEL-induced ecosystem carbon sinks is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. We estimated the impact of IEL, specifically the increase in forests and grasslands, as well as global changes including atmospheric CO2 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and climate change on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZs) in China using a calibrated ecological process model. The NEP in NKEFZs in China was calculated to be 119.4 Tg C yr-- 1 , showing an increase of 42.6 Tg C yr-- 1 from 2001 to 2021. Compared to the slight contributions of climate change (-8.0%), nitrogen deposition (11.5%), and reduction in ecological land (-3.5%), the increase in NEP was primarily attributed to CO2 2 (66.5%) and IEL (33.5%). Moreover, the effect of IEL (14.8 Tg C yr-- 1 ) surpassed that of global change (13.1 Tg C yr-- 1 ) in the land use change zone. The IEL-induced NEP is significantly associated with CO2 2 fertilization, regulated by precipitation and nitrogen deposition. The high values of IEL-induced NEP occurred in areas with precipitation exceeding 800 mm and nitrogen deposition exceeding 25 kg N ha- 1 yr- 1 . We recommend prioritizing the expansion of ecological land in areas with sufficient water and nutrients to enhance CO2 2 fertilization, while avoiding increasing ecological land in regions facing unfavorable climate change conditions. This study serves as a foundation for comprehending the NEP response to ecological restoration and global change.

The ecological shelter serves a dual purpose of protecting the target ecosystem from damage and benefitting surrounding ecosystems. One important ecosystem service provided by such areas is water provisioning service, which has significant impacts on the surrounding ecosystems due to its flow characteristics. This study aimed to simulate water resources in Inner Mongolia and its surrounding watersheds in 2010 and 2015 using a simplified service path attribution networks (SPANs) model. The InVEST software was utilized to simulate water provisions, and five types of water consumption were used to calculate the total water consumption. Probability statistics with BBNs were utilized to classify variables influencing water provisioning services and calculate state probabilities under different levels of water provisioning services. The results indicated that the remaining water resources in Inner Mongolia were 3.85 x 1010 m3 in 2010 and 1.92 x 1010 m3 in 2015. Additionally, the total net outflow from Inner Mongolia was 2.37 x 1010 m3 in 2010 and 1.58 x 1010 m3 in 2015. Inner Mongolia not only supplies water resources for its own needs but also supports the surrounding areas. Key variables influencing the amount of water-provisioning services include precipitation, level of economic development, topography, and land use. This research highlights the considerable regional and transregional effects of water provisioning services provided by Inner Mongolia's ecological shelters by delineating the "supply-flow-demand" pathway, addressing the spatial correlation deficiency between supply and demand in the field of ecosystem service flow research. The findings of this study, focusing on a typical ecological shelter, can serve as a reference for future research in other similar shelters.

The Blue Economic Zone of the Shandong Peninsula is located in the transitional zone between land and sea, with a complex ecological environment. The determination of hot and cold spots in various ecosystem services is crucial for the coordinated development of ecosystem services and the optimization of the spatial pattern of the ecological environment. This study, based on natural and socio-economic data, utilizes various ecological models to simulate water yield (provisioning service), carbon sequestration (regulating service), biodiversity (supporting service), and aesthetic and scientific research values (cultural service). Using a multi-criteria decision-making approach, it identifies hot and cold spots of ecosystem services in different development–conservation scenarios. Combining the protection efficiency of different areas, it proposes a spatial pattern promotion scheme. The research indicates significant spatial differences in ecosystem services without clear trade-offs and synergies. Changes in the weights of ecosystem services in 11 scenarios result in significant differences in hot and cold spots. Compared to the neutral scenario (S6), the distribution of hot and cold spots in protection scenarios (S1–S5) is relatively scattered, while in development scenarios (S7–S11), hot spots show an increasing trend of concentration in the southeast, with cold spots scattered in the west and northwest. Four spatial pattern promotion schemes are proposed based on protection efficiency and policy preferences. Promotion areas should focus on ecological restoration and improvement to raise local ecosystem service levels. Protection areas should emphasize maintaining their existing high-level ecosystem services to achieve a synergistic enhancement of various ecosystem services.

2000年以来，中国陆地生态系统经历了剧烈变化并显著改变了生态系统服务。深入理解近20年中国陆地生态系统服务的时空演变格局及其权衡与协同关系对生态系统管理和可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。基于最新发展的遥感驱动的生态系统服务评估过程模型（CEVSA-ES）,研究定量评估了2000—2018年中国4种生态系统服务（即净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持）的时空格局及其权衡与协同关系。结果发现：（1）净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持等服务在2018的全国总量分别为3.68 Pg C/a、0.43 Pg C/a、1015.71 km~3/a 208.18 Gt/a;东部季风区的生态系统服务显著高于西北内陆地区及青藏高原地区，特别是热带-亚热带地区主导了中国生态系统服务供给，其对全国尺度不同生态系统服务总量的贡献率均高于50%;（2）2000—2018年，全国净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持均呈增加趋势，年际变化速率分别为42.80 Tg C/a、13.42 Tg C/a、11.90 km~3/a、1.11 Gt/a,其中净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水呈显著增加趋势（P＜0.05）;针对不同气候区，热带-亚热带季风区主导了净初级生产力及固碳的增加趋势，蓄水在不同气候区均呈不显著增加趋势，土壤保持仅在温带大陆性气候区呈显著增加趋势；（3）2000—2018年中国净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水、土壤保持等服务两两之间均呈协同关系。净初级生产力是众多生态系统服务的基础，其与固碳、蓄水、土壤保持两两之间均呈现显著协同关系，这奠定了不同服务之间协同关系的基础；在空间上，两两生态系统服务之间呈协同关系的面积占全国总面积的比例均超过60%,其主要分布在中国北方及长江中下游地区。本研究有助于增强对生态系统服务变化的认知，提高生态系统服务评估结果的科学性，可为生态系统管理提供参考。

生态系统评估是开展生态系统管理的重要手段,其评估结果已成为衡量区域生态系统状况优劣的重要依据.由于没有充分考虑生态系统禀赋的区域差异性,缺乏有效区分气候变化和人类活动影响的手段,导致生态系统评估结果的实用性与区域可比性一直存有争议.在生态大数据背景下,基于生态完整性理论,结合长期地面监测数据、野外调查数据、遥感数据等海量数据,耦合生态系统过程模型,构建了基于"参照系-现状-变化量"(RSD)的生态系统评估体系,以受干扰较少接近原生、完整的地带性植被生态系统(完整的生态系统)作为参照系,其表现出来的组成、结构、功能等特征为参照条件,生态系统状况现状与参照条件的偏离程度作为评估生态系统优劣程度的依据,从而将现状评估转变为变化量评估,增强评估结果的时空可比性.并以生态系统过程模型为工具,利用RSD评估方法评估了中国陆地生态系统生产力功能,验证了该方法体系的可行性.评估结果显示,2000—2018年我国植被净初级生产力(NPP)参照值、现实值和变化量均表现为上升趋势,而NPP现实值与变化量的空间分布存在显著差异,基于RSD的评估方法较好地解决了评估结果区域不可比的问题.研究对完善我国生态系统评估体系,推动生态系统评估结果的实用化,支撑我国重点生态功能区县域考核、生态红线监管、自然保护地体系建设等国家需求具有重要意义.

The water supply services of the Li River are essential for the ecological environment and local social development. Based on the InVEST model, we quantitatively analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of water supply services in the Li River Basin from 2000 to 2018 at multiple scales, including the raster, sub-basin, and regional scales, clarified the differences in water yield among different land use types, and explored the different stages of changes in the characteristics of water services. The results revealed four key aspects of this system. (1) The water supply service of Li River Basin showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south, and the water yield gradually decreased from north to south. (2) Among the various land use types in Li River Basin, the average water supply capacity decreased in the following order: artificial surface, unused land, grassland, forest, cropland and wetland. (3) The average amounts of water services in the 18 sub-basins varied widely, with four sub-basins belonging to the high-value area for water supply services, eight in the middle-value area, and six in the low-value area. (4) From 2000 to 2010, the regions with large fluctuations in water supply services include the midstream region, Lipu River region, and the northern region of Gongcheng River; while from 2010 to 2018, the areas with large fluctuations were in the midstream region and Gongcheng River region. The results of this research increase our understanding of the water supply services in the Li River Basin and provide a critical scientific basis for the reverse compensation of a regional ecological compensation mechanism.

Coordinating ecological and socioeconomic development is the only way to achieve regional sustainability. In this paper, the total output value of ecosystem services was selected to evaluate the ecological environment, and socioeconomic indicators were selected to evaluate socioeconomic development. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) between the ecological environment and economy of counties in northern China was evaluated by combining an entropy method and a coupling coordination model. Spatial autocorrelation and a geographical detector model were used to reveal the spatial agglomeration characteristics and factors that influence the coordination degree of the ecological–economic system in northern China. Results showed that, in 2019, most counties were in the ecological–economic transition development stage. Among them, 321 counties had a CCD index between 0.4 and 0.5 (basic coordination stage); 209 counties had a CCD index between 0.5 and 0.6 (primary coordination stage); and 77 counties had a CCD index between 0.6 and 0.8 (moderate coordination stage). The global Moran’s I was 0.349, indicating that there was spatial agglomeration of ecological–economic coupling coordination at a county level. Low-low clusters were mainly found in the central and eastern central part of the study area, and high–high clusters were mainly found in northern Hebei province, Shandong peninsula, and northern Henan province. The factors that influenced the CCD index, ordered from the largest to the smallest, were landscape, terrain, traffic, and climate factors. The interactions between driving factors showed nonlinear and bilinear enhancement. The findings show that the coordination of socioeconomic and ecological development in northern China can be further improved. Relevant policies should emphasize the local ecological advantages, promote the transformation to ecological industrialization, and encourage ecologically and economically balanced development.

The resistance and recovery rate of forest ecosystems to droughts vary with the severity of the drought. Studies on the impacts of severe droughts on forest ecosystems have suggested that evergreen forests have higher resistance than deciduous forests. However, whether the resistance and recovery rate of forest ecosystems vary under moderate droughts remained largely unknown. Here, we used the Standardized Precipitation Index to identify drought characteristics in China's forest ecosystems from 2000 to 2018. We quantified the resistance and recovery rate to moderate droughts under different drought timings based on the Enhanced Vegetation Index. We then adopted random forest regression to evaluate the relative importance of climatic variables and species richness as drivers of resistance and recovery rate to moderate droughts. We found that China's forest ecosystems mainly experienced moderate drought events, resulting in different resistance and recovery rate compared to severe droughts. Deciduous forests had high resistance (30.39 ± 21.32) and evergreen forests had high recovery rate (1.38 ± 1.10) due to their different response strategies under moderate droughts. The resistance and recovery rate of China's forest ecosystems varied under different drought timings. The differences between deciduous and evergreen forests' resistance (43.88 – 78.24 %) and recovery rate (-31.04 – −52.20 %) were remarkable in spring, autumn, and winter. In evergreen and deciduous forests, climatic variables were the main influencing factors of resistance and recovery rate to moderate droughts, similar to the leading role of climatic variables under severe droughts. Global radiation (41.06 %) and temperature (30.97 %) were the dominant factors contributing to resistance, whereas the recovery rate was primarily explained by global radiation (40.30 %) and precipitation (27.33 %). Thus, the high resistance in deciduous forests and the high recovery rate in evergreen forests under moderate droughts suggest that evergreen and deciduous forests can be mixed to improve the stability of forest ecosystems under climate change.

Ecosystem service flow plays a vital role in the formation, transportation, transformation, and maintenance of ecosystem services. For ecosystem services with spatiotemporal mismatch of supply and demand, ecosystem service flow explains the integrated process of ‘supply-flow-demand’ of ecosystem services. The present study evaluates the supply and demand of ecosystem water provision services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and simulates the spatial flow pattern and transmission mechanism of water provision services. Additionally, the study establishes dynamic and static water security indices and identify water security level to quantify the water resources security of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the changing ecological environment. The research shows: (a) the annual total water surplus were 6.71 × 1011 m3, 8.43 × 1011 m3, 7.86 × 1011 m3 and 2.91 × 1011 m3. The supply–demand relationship of water provisioning service in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau shows an obvious oversupply condition; (b) The water security level of the plateau is high (level V and level IV), indicating that the water security status of the Qinghai- Tibet Plateau is under good condition, however, the area with low-security levels (Level I and Level II) is increasing. (c) From the perspective of ‘supply-demand-flow’ of ecosystem services, although the function of the water tower on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau has declined, it remained safe condition on the whole study area. The method of establishing spatial correlation between mismatched supply and demand of ecosystem services and evaluating regional water security based on ecosystem service flow constructed in this study presents the water security status and spatial distribution of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau more scientifically, providing a reference for water resource management in other regions.

AbstractGrain self‐sufficiency (GSS) is gaining increased attention throughout the world, and this holds particularly true for China. This study, therefore, investigated spatial and temporal patterns of GSS at the county level in China from 1980s to the 2010s; then explored future GSS changes in the 2035s according to China's 2016 dietary nutrition guidelines, under the circumstances of maximum, average and minimum grain yield increase rate; and finally discussed the ability of a county to purchase grain to meet its demands. The results indicate that the number of counties with self‐insufficiency for total grain and ration decreased, and the amount of counties with high‐level self‐sufficiency for total grain and ration increased. However, the change in the number of counties with feed grain self‐insufficiency and high‐level self‐sufficiency is opposite to that of ration and total grain. Eastern China was characterised by high GSS of total grain, ration and feed grain. As for different kinds of grain, high level of GSS distributed in main grain producing areas, such as rice in south China, wheat in western China and Huang Huai Hai Plain, maize in north and northwest China and soybean in northeast China. Qinghai‐Tibet plateau has undergone poor food security in the last 30 years. In the 2035s, China's total GSS level and ration self‐sufficiency level will be improved under the maximum and average grain yield increase rate, whilst for feed grain, the self‐sufficiency level will be improved only under the maximum grain yield increase rate. The Qinghai‐Tibet plateau has always been a fragile area of food security. This study plays the vital function in understanding China's food security and contributes to the optimisation of agricultural production as well as the utilisation of both internal and external markets.

Ecosystem service research is essential to identify the contribution of the ecosystem to human welfare. As an important ecological barrier zone, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) supports the use of a crucial wind erosion prevention service (WEPS) to improve the ecological environment quality. This study simulated the spatiotemporal patterns of the WEPS based on the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) and its driving factors. From 2000 to 2015, the total WEPS provided in the QTP ranged from 1.75 × 109 kg to 2.52 × 109 kg, showing an increasing and then decreasing trend. The average WEPS service per unit area was between 0.72 kg m−2 and 1.06 kg m−2. The high-value areas were concentrated in the northwest and north of the QTP, and the total WEPS in different areas varied significantly from year to year. The average retention rate of the WEPS in the QTP was estimated to be 57.24–62.10%, and high-value areas were mainly located in the southeast of the QTP. The total monetary value of the WEPS in the QTP was calculated to be between 223.56 × 109 CNY and 321.73 × 109 CNY, and the average WEPS per unit area was between 0.08 CNY m−2 and 0.13 CNY m−2, showing a declining–rising–declining trend. The high-value areas gradually expanded to the west and east of the QTP. The slope was the most important factor controlling the spatial differentiation of the WEPS, followed by the landform type, average annual precipitation, and average annual wind speed, and human activities such as land-use change could improve the WEPS by returning farmland to grassland and desertification control in the QTP.

防风固沙服务是干旱半干旱地区生态系统提供的最重要的防护型服务，对风蚀地区及周边区域的生态环境安全具有重要意义。基于修正的土壤风蚀方程（RWEQ）模型模拟了1980—2018年浑善达克地区防风固沙服务的时空变化，利用地理探测器分析了包括数值和类型变量的自然与社会经济因素对该区防风固沙服务空间格局的影响及交互作用。研究结果显示：（1）1980—2018年，单位面积防风固沙量波动下降，2015年单位面积防风固沙量最小，为13.01 kg/m~2。同时，防风固沙保有率波动增加，2018年保有率达到最大值，为94.28%;（2）土壤类型、年末牲畜数量、年降水量与人工造林面积是影响防风固沙服务空间变化的主要因素，其中，土壤类型对防风固沙服务空间变化的影响最大，q值为75.15%;（3）各驱动因素间的交互作用都会放大单因子对浑善达克地区防风固沙服务空间分布的影响。其中，年均温对防风固沙服务空间分布变化具有较强的间接影响。因此，在土壤类型、年均温的间接作用下，1980—2018年浑善达克重点生态功能区防风固沙能力整体提高、风蚀程度有所缓解与年均风速、年降水量变化，以及2000年之后京津风沙源工程引起的人工造林面积、年末牲畜数量的空间分布格局变化有密切关系。