Monitoring programs designed to assess changes in population size over time need to account for imperfect detection and provide estimates of precision around annual abundance estimates. Especially for species dependent on conservation management, robust monitoring is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management. Many bird species of temperate grasslands depend on specific conservation management to maintain suitable breeding habitat. One such species is the Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola), which breeds in open fen mires in Central Europe. Aquatic Warbler populations have so far been assessed using a complete survey that aims to enumerate all singing males over a large area. Because this approach provides no estimate of precision and does not account for observation error, detecting moderate population changes is challenging. From 2011 to 2013 we trialled a new line transect sampling monitoring design in the Biebrza valley, Poland, to estimate abundance of singing male Aquatic Warblers. We surveyed Aquatic Warblers repeatedly along 50 randomly placed 1-km transects, and used binomial mixture models to estimate abundances per transect. The repeated line transect sampling required 150 observer days, and thus less effort than the traditional 'full count' approach (175 observer days). Aquatic Warbler abundance was highest at intermediate water levels, and detection probability varied between years and was influenced by vegetation height. A power analysis indicated that our line transect sampling design had a power of 68% to detect a 20% population change over 10 years, whereas raw count data had a 9% power to detect the same trend. Thus, by accounting for imperfect detection we increased the power to detect population changes. We recommend to adopt the repeated line transect sampling approach for monitoring Aquatic Warblers in Poland and in other important breeding areas to monitor changes in population size and the effects of habitat management.

SummaryThe Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola is a globally threatened habitat specialist that breeds in open fens in Central and Eastern Europe. Because bush and reed encroachment threaten many suitable breeding areas, habitat management is necessary to maintain the open wetlands that Aquatic Warblers require for nesting. The effectiveness of mowing as habitat management has so far only been assessed by counting the number of singing males. To assess whether mowing also affected vital reproduction parameters, we analysed Aquatic Warbler productivity in the Biebrza National Park, Poland, on plots in four different successional stages after mowing. Our study showed that productivity was lowest in the first year after mowing, but increased to the highest levels in the second year after mowing. The productivity differences between areas at different stages after mowing resulted from differences in nest density, since we found little evidence for an effect of mowing on nest survival or the number of fledglings produced per successful nest. Nest survival was highly variable between years and varied mostly with nest age and nest initiation date. The density of singing males was positively correlated with both the nest density and the number of fledglings produced in an area, suggesting that this simple indicator could be used to rank the quality of Aquatic Warbler habitats. We recommend that in mesotrophic fen mires, such as the Biebrza valley, mowing as habitat management is applied less frequently than every second year.

Stable isotope analysis of feathers can be useful in the study of seasonal interactions and migratory connectivity in birds. For the PalaearcticAfrican migration system, however, the lack of isotope data from feathers of known origin in Africa renders the geographic assignment of birds captured on European breeding grounds to potential wintering areas problematic. Rectrices of the threatened aquatic warbler Acrocephalus paludicola grown in Africa were sampled across six European countries to assess whether birds in different breeding populations shared similar isotopic signatures and so were likely to have wintered in the same region in Africa. Freshly grown feathers of aquatic warblers collected at the only known wintering site in Senegal showed high variation in carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen isotope ratios. Due to similarly high variation in isotope ratios of African-grown feathers within all breeding populations, it was not possible to determine whether different populations wintered in different regions. However, isotope signatures of 20% of birds captured on European breeding grounds fell outside the range of those captured in Senegal, suggesting a wider wintering distribution than is currently known. We therefore assessed whether the origin of these feathers could be estimated by trying to establish isotopic gradients across sub-Saharan West Africa. Feathers of three ecologically similar surrogate species were sampled from wetlands across a 3000 km east-west and a 2000 km northsouth transect. Within-site variation in feather isotope ratios was frequently larger than the difference predicted by gradients across West Africa. Thus, predicting the origin of individual feathers using single-isotope gradients was not reliable. The large within-site variability of feather isotope ratios of a habitat specialist species like the aquatic warbler indicates that using feather isotope ratios will require large sample sizes from many locations, and may thus not be an efficient tool in identifying wintering areas of Palaearctic African migrants.

The Aquatic Warbler is a threatened Afro-Palaearctic migrant with a largely unknown distribution in the winter (non-breeding) season. Protection of wintering sites may be crucial for the conservation of the species. Previous studies have identified extensive areas of north-western sub-Saharan Africa that could potentially be occupied by the species during winter. However, these studies have not necessarily differentiated between potentially suitable and unsuitable habitat types at a spatial resolution appropriate for targeting field surveys. To identify specific sites that could be occupied by non-breeding Aquatic Warblers at a scale appropriate for targeted field surveys, we adopted a modelling approach that combined recent sightings from Djoudj, Senegal, with land cover and climate data. We produced maps of potential distribution using three maximum entropy models. While a paucity of sightings prevented a full test of these maps on independent records, the areas that were predicted to be potentially occupied included areas around which there are historical records. We suggest field surveys should be targeted towards sites in the Inner Niger Delta and a number of marshes along and away from the Niger River in Mali, and to sites in southern Mauritania.

SummaryPopulation size estimates of waders, gulls and terns passing through or breeding in Central Asia are very scarce, although highly important for global flyway population estimates as well as for targeting local conservation efforts. The Tengiz-Korgalzhyn region is one of the largest wetland complexes in Central Asia. We conducted surveys in this region between 1999 and 2008 and present estimates of population size as well as information on phenology and age structure for 50 species of Charadriiformes. The Tengiz-Korgalzhyn wetlands are especially important for Red-necked Phalaropes Phalaropus lobatus and Ruffs Philomachus pugnax with, respectively, 41% and 13% of their flyway populations using the area during spring migration. The region is also an important post-breeding moulting site for Pied Avocets Recurvirostra avosetta and Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa used by, respectively, 5% and 4% of their flyway populations. Besides its key importance as a migratory stopover site, the study area is a key breeding site for the Critically Endangered Sociable Lapwing Vanellus gregarius, the Near Threatened Black-winged Pratincole Glareola nordmanni and for Pallas’s Gull Larus ichthyaetus with 16%, 6% and 5% of their world populations, respectively. We identified 29 individual sites that held more than 1% of the relevant flyway populations of at least one species of Charadriiformes. Including data on other species of waterbirds (mainly waterfowl), there were 93 sites that qualify for Important Bird Areas (IBA). About half of them are protected in a state nature reserve, while an additional 20% are recognised as IBAs. Nevertheless, 28 important sites are currently not recognised as IBAs nor are they protected by other conservation means. These sites require conservation attention.

Realistic population size estimates for waterbirds are crucial for the application of wetland conservation strategies, since the identification of internationally important wetlands is based on local numbers relative to the population size of the respective species. Central Asia is a poorly surveyed region that is situated at the intersection of migration routes that lead waterbirds from Western Siberia to the south-west (South-West Asia, East Africa) and to the south-east (South Asia, India). We calculated waterbird population estimates for the Tengiz-Korgalzhyn region, a large wetland complex in the steppe zone of Central Kazakhstan, based on waterbird surveys conducted between 1999 and 2004. For 20 of 43 species analysed the region supported more than 5% of the relevant flyway populations. Five species occurred with more than 40% of the flyway totals, including the Endangered White-headed Duck Oxyura leucocephala and the Vulnerable Dalmatian Pelican Pelecanus crispus. Peak numbers were recorded in summer and autumn and for most species numbers were more than an order of magnitude lower on spring migration compared with autumn migration. We identified 72 individual sites that held more than 20,000 waterbirds or more than 1 % of a particular flyway population at least once. These sites are likely to constitute priorities for conservation. The general conservation status of the region is favourable, since many of the important sites are located within a strict nature reserve. However, outside the reserve hunting, fishing and powerline casualties represent conservation issues that should be monitored more carefully in the future.