Under the impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability, upwelling systems are known to change their properties leading to associated regime shifts in marine ecosystems. These often impact commercial fisheries and societies dependent on them. In a region where in situ hydrographic and biological marine data are scarce, this study uses a combination of remote sensing and ocean modelling to show how a stable seasonal upwelling off the Kenyan coast shifted into the territorial waters of neighboring Tanzania under the influence of the unique 1997/ 98 El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. The formation of an anticyclonic gyre adjacent to the Kenyan/ Tanzanian coast led to a reorganization of the surface currents and caused the southward migration of the Somali–Zanzibar confluence zone and is attributed to anomalous wind stress curl over the central Indian Ocean. This caused the lowest observed chlorophyll-a over the North Kenya banks (Kenya), while it reached its historical maximum off Dar Es Salaam (Tanzanian waters). We demonstrate that this situation is specific to the 1997/ 98 El Niño when compared with other the super El-Niño events of 1972,73, 1982–83 and 2015–16. Despite the lack of available fishery data in the region, the local ecosystem changes that the shift of this upwelling may have caused are discussed based on the literature. The likely negative impacts on local fish stocks in Kenya, affecting fishers’ livelihoods and food security, and the temporary increase in pelagic fishery species’ productivity in Tanzania are highlighted. Finally, we discuss how satellite observations may assist fisheries management bodies to anticipate low productivity periods, and mitigate their potentially negative economic impacts.

Under the impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability, upwelling systems are known to change their properties leading to associated regime shifts in marine ecosystems. These often impact commercial fisheries and societies dependent on them. In a region where in situ hydrographic and biological marine data are scarce, this study uses a combination of remote sensing and ocean modelling to show how a stable seasonal upwelling off the Kenyan coast shifted into the territorial waters of neighboring Tanzania under the influence of the unique 1997/ 98 El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. The formation of an anticyclonic gyre adjacent to the Kenyan/ Tanzanian coast led to a reorganization of the surface currents and caused the southward migration of the Somali–Zanzibar confluence zone and is attributed to anomalous wind stress curl over the central Indian Ocean. This caused the lowest observed chlorophyll-a over the North Kenya banks (Kenya), while it reached its historical maximum off Dar Es Salaam (Tanzanian waters). We demonstrate that this situation is specific to the 1997/ 98 El Niño when compared with other the super El-Niño events of 1972,73, 1982–83 and 2015–16. Despite the lack of available fishery data in the region, the local ecosystem changes that the shift of this upwelling may have caused are discussed based on the literature. The likely negative impacts on local fish stocks in Kenya, affecting fishers’ livelihoods and food security, and the temporary increase in pelagic fishery species’ productivity in Tanzania are highlighted. Finally, we discuss how satellite observations may assist fisheries management bodies to anticipate low productivity periods, and mitigate their potentially negative economic impacts.

Small pelagic fisheries provide food security, livelihood support and economic stability for East African coastal communities—a region of least developed countries. Using remotely- sensed and field observations together with modelling, we address the biophysical drivers of this important resource. We show that annual variations of fisheries yield parallel those of chlorophyll-a (an index of phytoplankton biomass). While enhanced phytoplankton biomass during the Northeast monsoon is triggered by wind-driven upwelling, during the Southeast monsoon, it is driven by two current induced mechanisms: coastal “dynamic uplift” upwelling; and westward advection of nutrients. This biological response to the Southeast monsoon is greater than that to the Northeast monsoon. For years unaffected by strong El-Niño / La-Niña events, the Southeast monsoon wind strength over the south tropical Indian Ocean is the main driver of year-to-year variability. This has important implications for the predictability of fisheries yield, its response to climate change, policy and resource management.

Small pelagic fish, including anchovies, sardines and sardinellas, mackerels, capelin, hilsa, sprats and herrings, are distributed widely, from the tropics to the far north Atlantic Ocean and to the southern oceans off Chile and South Africa. They are most abundant in the highly productive major eastern boundary upwelling systems and are characterised by significant natural variations in biomass. Overall, small pelagic fisheries represent about one third of global fish landings although a large proportion of the catch is processed into animal feeds. Nonetheless, in some developing countries in addition to their economic value, small pelagic fisheries also make an important contribution to human diets and the food security of many low-income households. Such is the case for many communities in the Zanzibar Archipelago and on mainland Tanzania in the Western Indian Ocean. Of great concern in this region, as elsewhere, is the potential impact of climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems in general, and on small pelagic fisheries in particular. This paper describes data and information available on Tanzania's small pelagic fisheries, including catch and effort, management protocols and socio-economic significance. Then, incorporating the rapidly improving understanding of the region's oceanography resulting from the application of remote sensing and oceanographic modelling, the paper undertakes the most complete assessment to date of the potential impacts of climate change on the small pelagic fishery of the Pemba Channel. Pathways of climate change impact are explored and crucial knowledge gaps, both in terms of the fishery itself and the wider ecosystem, are identified in order to guide future research activities. Although we analyse small pelagics in the specific context of the Pemba Channel, the key challenges identified in the analysis are likely to be relevant to many small pelagic fisheries in coastal nations heavily dependent on living marine resources.

Here we describe an interdisciplinary and multi-country initiative to develop rapid, participatory methods to assess the vulnerability of coastal communities and facilitate adaptation to climate change in data-poor regions. The methods were applied in Madagascar as a case study. The initiative centered on an exploratory research exercise in two communities in the south-west of Madagascar, a workshop held in Antananarivo in June 2016, combined with a component on communicating ocean science and climate change to stakeholders. It utilized innovative and rapid approaches to combine global and local skills and information on adaptation and resilience building, taking cognizance of national policies, and was based on the principles of a holistic, integrated and participatory approach. This paper summarizes the activities undertaken and assesses how effective they were in achieving the project goals, as well as presenting examples of the outputs obtained. The activities demonstrated the value of using existing high resolution global climate models for provision of information on future trends, and of including a traits-based ecological risk assessment as a standard component of vulnerability assessments. User-friendly qualitative modeling activities helped to consolidate holistic, integrated understanding of selected fisheries. The value of assessing the importance and resilience of supply chains and taking the local management measures and institutions into account were validated. The outcomes of the initiative reinforced the principle that the cumulative ecological and social impacts of individual stressors and drivers on marine-dependent communities must be addressed, including climate-change related stressors. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation planning should be forward-looking and consider likely changes in the future. They must also be done with participation by local experts and stakeholders to ensure knowledge exchange, local capacity-building and ownership and that outputs are rooted in the local realities, are accepted as being legitimate, and reinforce and complement relevant legal frameworks and laws.

Southwest Madagascar is a region that is significantly impacted upon by climate change. As in a lot of developing countries, the livelihoods of many communities in this region are dependent on fishing. This makes these communities particularly vulnerable to climate-related changes. We conducted a survey in two coastal fishing communities in the Toliara Province, Ambola and Ambotsibotsike. Using a free listing exercise, semi-structured interviews and focus group methods, we documented local perceptions of environmental changes and responses to changes. Results were compared, taking into account the differences in the degree of remoteness, market exposure and religiosity. Time periods that respondents reported as having had a high degree of change were compared to time periods of historical records of cyclones occurring in Toliara Province. Mostly, changes in the environment were said to have started 21–40 years ago. An overlap was observed between time periods when respondents observed changes in their environment and time periods of high magnitude cyclones. Answers relating to the local environment show that both villages identify with a sea culture, but the local ecological knowledge is arguably more accurate in the remote village of Ambola. In Ambotsibotsike God's intervention was predominantly identified as the source/cause of changes in the natural environment. Ambola also displayed a higher proportion of household members who participate in fishing from pirogues (at least one person per household). In both villages, the most reported change was a reduction of sea resources (64,2% of the answers in Ambola and 69.5% in Ambotsibotsike). Villagers' adaptation responses reflected the presence of NGOs in both villages. This influence was particularly strong in Ambola, where the establishment of reserves was found to be a predominant strategy to cope with change (54.8% of the answers). Our study provides additional insights that can be used in relation to the discussion of the role of the market, of religion, and the influence of NGOs on local knowledge. It seeks to contribute to the need to implement sustainable conservation strategies and successful community-based management plans.

There has been debate in the literature about whether jellyfish abundance has increased in the northern Benguela upwelling system, or not, over the past five decades and what impact they are having on pelagic fish. Here we review old expedition literature as well as more recent spatial and temporal patterns in distribution of jellyfish off Namibia at a number of different scales, using both published and previously unpublished data. Specifically, we have used data from fishery-dependent sources of both the demersal (359 638 trawls) and pelagic fisheries (11 324 purse-seine sets) that cover the period 1992–2006, supported by data from fishery-independent demersal (6 109 trawls) and pelagic trawls (1 817 trawls) from 1996 to 2006. Using frequency of capture as an index of abundance, it is clear that jellyfish are not randomly distributed within the northern Benguela ecosystem, but show specific areas of concentration that broadly reflect regional oceanography and the distribution of other zooplankton. Although jellyfish are present throughout the year, peaks in abundance are shown that often coincide with peaks in the spawning activity of fish of commercial importance. Interannual changes in jellyfish abundance observed from all sources do not agree, with some showing increases, others declines, and still others showing no change, which suggests caution should be exercised in their interpretation. Based on the multiple lines of evidence synthesised here, we conclude that jellyfish abundance has increased concomitant with a decline of pelagic fish stocks. We conclude that future recovery of the pelagic fishery off Namibia is likely to be considerably challenged because of significant overlaps in space and time between fish and jellyfish, and through the effects of competition and predation effects of jellyfish on fish.

THE AFRICAN COELACANTH ECOSYSTEM Programme (ACEP) Geographic Information System (CIS) has been developed to integrate, analyse and map all spatial data generated within the ACEP programme. A CIS is a multidisciplinary tool, and within ACEP the CIS has been used to integrate information from marine biology studies, oceanographic surveys, geophysical exploration as well as the observations made and footage taken from a research submersible. The core data in the CIS are based on deep marine ecosystems and the programme's flagship species, Latimeria chalumnae (the coelacanth). Over and above the utility of the CIS as a tool for science through its considerable information storage, analysis and display capabilities, the ACEP CIS has been used for interactive environmental education purposes and to generate public awareness of the programme at various meetings, training events and conferences.