The state of progress towards climate adaptation is currently unclear. Here we apply a structured expert judgement to assess multiple dimensions shaping adaptation (equally weighted): risk knowledge, planning, action, capacities, evidence on risk reduction, long-term pathway strategies. We apply this approach to 61 local coastal case studies clustered into four urban and rural archetypes to develop a locally informed perspective on the state of global coastal adaptation. We show with medium confidence that today’s global coastal adaptation is halfway to the full adaptation potential. Urban archetypes generally score higher than rural ones (with a wide spread of local situations), adaptation efforts are unbalanced across the assessment dimensions and strategizing for long-term pathways remains limited. The results provide a multi-dimensional and locally grounded assessment of global coastal adaptation and lay new foundations for international climate negotiations by showing that there is room to refine global adaptation targets and identify priorities transcending development levels.

The management of water systems in islands of developing countries presents many challenges in the face of climate change and tourism development. Such systems are high levels of uncertainty and complexity driven by dynamic interactions amongst multiple climatic and nonclimatic drivers with many feedbacks. Understanding complex interactions and feedbacks in the systems is, therefore, critical to inform decision-making regarding the adaptation options that will be required to ensure adequate water supplies to meet population growth and tourism development in current and future climate changes. In this study, a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach was applied to assess the vulnerability and effectiveness of potential adaptation options for a scarce water system in the Cat Ba Island, Vietnam under current conditions and with respect to projected climatic and non-climatic changes. This island is highly vulnerable to water shortages due to its island position, and high levels of climate change and tourism development. Relevant historical data collection and causal loop diagram (CLD) development were conducted with local stakeholders to determine the model structure and the system archetypes. The CLD provides the relationships and interactions amongst climatic and non-climatic drivers as well as potential adaptation options, represented by four reinforcing loops (R1 to R4), and six balancing loops (B1 to B6). Two main systems archetypes were discussed, they are “Limits to growth” illustrating the relationships between tourism development, population growth and water availability in the Cat Ba Island, and “Tragedy of the commons” presenting the groundwater exploitation from drilled wells and dug wells. Key main variables from the CLD, five future climatic and non-climatic scenarios and six main adaptation options were incorporated into the SD model to assess the vulnerability and effectiveness of potential adaptation options for the island water system over 37 years, from 2014 to 2050. At this stage, the SD model are being finalised after validating from local stakeholders in the Cat Ba Island to obtain the required accuracy for decisionmaking supports. The SD model results will help decision-makers understand the interactive effects of a range of climatic and non-climatic drivers on the vulnerability and the robustness of potential adaptation options of the scarce water system over time. Collective adaptation actions will be then facilitated to efficiently secure water resources to support socio-economic development for the island in the face of climate change.

Wave run-up is defined as the maximum vertical extent of wave up-rush on a beach or structure above the sea water level from wave breaking. Wave run-up is responsible for beach and dune erosion and can be an important component of coastal flooding. Run-up can be estimated using either empirical formulations or sophisticated wave-breaking models with high computational demand. On the other hand, meta-models are efficient approximations of physical-process models that enable researchers to obtain long-term time series of wave dynamics. These hybrid models are developed by combining statistical techniques and numerical models. In this study, a methodology to transform offshore sea conditions to long-term time series of wave run-up is described. The methodology combined the construction of two meta-models of offshore wave propagation to coastal areas and of nearshore wave transformation to run-up. Clustering techniques were then implemented to select a subset of spectral patterns of the offshore conditions for nearshore transfer and a subset of sea states for reconstructing the run-up. Multivariate, radial-basis functions were then fitted to the outputs of the wave propagation and wave run-up simulations to reconstruct the time series of sea-state parameters in shallow water and the time series of run-up. This methodology was applied to Palm Beach on the Gold Coast (QLD, Australia). The nearshore wave climate was validated quantitatively, whereas the reconstructed wave run-up and total water-level time series was validated with a qualitative approximation, confirming that this methodology is capable of accurately transforming the offshore wave conditions into run-up time series. The total water levels were also reconstructed to show the applicability of the results to probabilistic flood-risk analyses.

•A core-periphery structure is identified in the Portofino MPA’s social network.•Core actors may act as hubs promoting information through their web-portals.•Participation of recreation and tourism sectors may be increased via online tools.•Combined online and face-to-face communication tools foster engagement.

Timothy F. Smith, Darryl Low Choy, Dana C. Thomsen, Silvia Serrao-Neumann, Florence Crick, Marcello Sano, Russell Richards, Ben Harman, Scott Baum, Stephen Myers, Vigya Sharma, Marcus Bussey, Julie Matthews, Anne Roiko, and R.W., Bill, Carter

Coastal areas in South East Queensland (SEQ) are exposed to coastal hazards and climate change and Local Governments are responding to these threats by developing a range of strategies for adaptation. Here we show the results of a spatial vulnerability assessment for SEQ’s coastal region and use them as the basis to assess progress in adaptation in five coastal Local Government areas. An integrated framework based on external (exposure) and internal (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) dimensions is used to produce one single index to provide a measure of SEQ’s vulnerability to coastal hazards. Coastal Local Governments’ progress in adaptation is evaluated based on a semi-quantitative assessment of pre-determined Adaptation Functions adapted to the SEQ context. The assessment reveals information specifically relevant for adaptation investment at the local government level. It is concluded that the five coastal Local Governments analysed have considerable capacity to deal with coastal hazards. However, there are numerous coastal suburbs that are highly vulnerable and this is mainly, due to the fact that the majority of the SEQ coastal region is intrinsically highly exposed and sensitive to climatic drivers. We argue that this vulnerability can be reduced if Local Governments continue to further their progress in adaptation through coastal planning and management frameworks.

This paper presents a participatory approach to conceptualizing system's models and to identifying critical issues in complex socio-environmental systems, combining information collected from individual experts and stakeholders. A method was developed to: (i) capture individuals mental models in the form of causal loop diagrams, using interaction matrices; (ii) build a conceptual model of the system combining the contribution of all stakeholders; (iii) identify critical issues for the system and (iv) prepare a combined causal loop diagram for further discussion and system dynamics simulations. This method was used to engage a group of stakeholders involved in the preparation of a plan for integrated coastal zone management in Egypt. The experience helped highlight the critical issues of the system in terms of importance given by the actors involved in the exercise and their impact on the coastal system. This approach also demonstrated the utility of conceptualizing complex socio-environmental systems for identifying critical issues in data-poor environments.

The traditional and core focus of civil engineering education is the provision of students with the technical skills needed to solve problems and create solutions to human settlements, infrastructure and the environment. However, these solutions are often challenged by the complexity of the socioeconomic system when multiple actors have different views on the issues at stakes and multiple solutions, a so-called wicked problem (Rittel and Webber, 1973). The main objective of the course Coastal Zone Management at Griffith University is to expose civil engineering, planning and science students to real world problems and situations in coastal engineering and management. In this paper we focus on the Role Playing Game, a graded assignment introduced in Coastal Zone Management in 2011, and used in the last three years of this course. This assignment, which is based on the student's engagement in a simulated stakeholder workshop, is designed to address critical learning outcomes for today's engineers and planners such as critical thinking, negotiation and communication skills and the ability to work in teams. The Role Playing Game, currently used for the course Coastal Zone Management, can be easily adapted to other planning or management courses in engineering or other disciplines. The purpose of the assignment is to expose planning and engineering students in the last years of their studies to real world stakeholder engagement processes, building conflict resolution and communication and negotiations skills. The Role Playing Game is designed to allow students to choose a real world stakeholder role and create and negotiate objectives and actions as part of the development of a hypothetical project or plan. In the course Coastal Zone Management we developed the role-playing game around the creation of the Coastal Management Plan for Dugong Bay, a hypothetical location in Queensland. The role-playing game consists in a 3 hours workshop facilitated by the course instructor, involving students as stakeholders from a range of hypothetical locations and sectors. In this case we used four hypothetical councils: Dingo Island Aboriginal Council, Muddy Creek Council, Pleasant Port Council, White Beach Council. In addition, we have identified and described 15 different stakeholders groups from the private and public sectors, such as council officers, State Government, tourism operators, environmental groups, developers, etc. The Role Playing Game is a graded assignment with the following assessment criteria: Participation in the workshop, Contribution to the debate and the Draft Plan, Answer to final questions. The results obtained indicate that the Role Playing Game is a successful mechanism for achieving the desired learning outcomes. This is reflected both in the results for this assignment, where students take the workshop very seriously to achieve good marks, and in the SEC (Student Experience of Courses) surveys, which have included positive comments on the learning experience for this course in all three years. The Role Playing Game for civil engineering described here has shown to be a very effective assessment item for students in their last two years of their studies as it allows them to experience possible real world situations with multiple stakeholder interests and objectives. This experience has shown students that often technically sound solutions can have multiple facets in a multi-stakeholder environment. By building capacity in critical thinking, communication and negotiation, the Role Playing Game teaches students that in the real world the chosen solution is often the one that minimises stakeholder conflicts.

Coastal areas are complex interconnected systems combining hydrodynamics processes, fragile ecosystems and human settlements. This combination can create complicated socio-environmental problems often resulting in uncertain management solutions, in particular in the light of climate change. Systems thinking and modelling, considering natural, social and economic aspects, have become popular in the last decade as a way to provide a better understanding of coastal areas and climate change elements, connections and behaviour. Systems thinking is a methodological approach that aims at breaking down interlinked elements which can directly or indirectly influence one another. Systems-based methodologies place emphasis on understanding and describing the nature of these elements and relationships, resulting in a conceptual model of the system. Systems modelling is the process of turning conceptual models into computer models ready for simulations. This quantification provides a numerical tool that can be used to understand or predict how a system will respond to changes. With the support from the Griffith Climate Change Response Program, the Systems Thinking and Modelling Group was recently formed to gather expertise in systems thinking and modelling within Griffith University, to provide a better understanding of socio-environmental systems in coastal areas under the impacts of climate change. A range of research activities has been carried out by the group members, developing or combining techniques which often rely on stakeholder contribution as a starting point for more sophisticated modelling, for instance: • To identify adaptation options and adaptive capacity determinants for South East Queensland coastal settlements • To identify and assess a range of climate change and coastal hazards options for Surf Life Saving in Australia assets and operations, including the analysis of the stakeholders networks • In eliciting quantitative stakeholder driven scenarios as an output for use in interdisciplinary modelling for offshore aquaculture development in California • In modelling adaptation to sea level rise combining spatial data with system dynamics simulations. • In identifying coastal management indicators (Sano & Medina, 2012) and, in particular, in modelling stakeholder mental models of relationships between coastal issues in Egypt. The outcomes of these experiences show that systems approaches are able to provide a better understanding of coastal systems in a changing climate by gathering different views and mental models from stakeholders and producing quantitative analysis and outputs. This information can be practically used to support decisions and indirectly employed to foster dialogue and create consensus within stakeholders groups.

South East Queensland has been one of the fastest growing regions of Australia, both in terms of its rapidly growing population and an ever-expanding built environment. It is also one of the most vulnerable regions likely to suffer from the adverse impacts of climate change, especially increased flooding, storms, coastal erosion and drought. Responding to Climate Change: Lessons from an Australian Hotspot brings together the results of cutting-edge research from members of the Griffith Climate Change Response Program, showing how best to respond to anticipated changes and how to overcome barriers to adaptation. The authors treat climate change adaptation as a cross-cutting, multi-level governance policy challenge extending across human settlements, infrastructure, ecosystems, water management, primary industries, emergency management and human health. The research focuses on, but is not limited to, the experience of climate change adaptation in the recognised climate hotspot of South East Queensland. The results of this research will be of interest to planners, policy makers and other practitioners engaged in urban and environmental planning, coastal management, public health, emergency management, and physical infrastructure at the local, regional and metropolitan government scales. [Book Synopsis]

Climate variability and change, combined with changing storm patterns, extreme events and sea-level rise, are currently challenging coastal communities' resilience around the globe and are likely to increase in the future (IPCC 2007b; Nicholls and Cazenave 2010). With more than 50% of the total population of Queensland concentrated in South East Queensland (SEQ) coastal areas, this region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of chronic (long-term) erosion patterns, extreme (short-term) erosion events and storm tides. In addition, the number of coastal residents and tourists has been increasing to unprecedented levels in the last two decades and the population is projected to grow further, driven by the coastal lifestyle and the 'sea change' phenomenon (Smith et al. 2011). Coastal ecosystems and infrastructure can be heavily affected by gradual changes in sea level and extreme events, challenging the capacity of communities and governing institutions to adapt in the future (DCCEE 2009). Current planning and management strategies of local councils, stemming from state government coastal planning and management regulations, have not yet embraced the full extent of climate variability and sea-level rise. However, there is a strong consensus in the science community that sea levels will rise in the future and that changes in climate patterns will occur, producing storms, coastal erosion and inundation, and posing challenges beyond historical experience. In this context, coastal planning and management for adaptation - integrating state of the art coastal modelling techniques with integrated coastal zone 1nanagement - should commence, even in a context of uncertainty about future scenarios, because failure to consider risks today may make it more costly to adapt in the future (Mummery 2008). In the following sections, we provide elements of climate variability and change applicable to SEQ, and an overview of coastal hazards and impacts. Subsequently, we describe the current coastal zone management framework and coastal modelling and management approaches that may contribute to the sustainable development of the SEQ coast. Finally, we showcase outcomes of our research into the adaptation of coastal settlements and infrastructure to climate variability and change.

The aim of this study is to use touch-screen computer tablet technology (e.g. iPAD) and its interactive flight console capabilities (e.g. touch screen ‘sliders’) as an improved method to stakeholderdriven climate change adaptation research. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation have strong human dimensions meaning that the experiences of stakeholders often plays an important role when assessing adaptation options and/or the determinants of adaptive capacity. Methods such as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can draw upon the extensive knowledge and beliefs of stakeholders in a straightforward manner yet are underpinned by a robust mathematical framework (i.e. Bayes theory). This is critically important for advancing climate change adaptation research and policy adoption. This project is borne out by the observed difficulty that stakeholders have, at times, displayed when assigning conditional probabilities to BBNs. This methodological step is recognised as the most difficult challenge when developing these knowledge-based models. In response to this, we have developed a computer tablet application (through the App2Adapt project), tailored specifically to improve elicitation of stakeholder-generated conditional probabilities. This app has been developed based on the experiences of the research team and through field-testing at different stages of the design process, including application to a real-world example. The development of this app and usage of this rapidly emerging technology in stakeholder engagement process will lead to significant improvement of using BBNs as a methodological approach to climate change adaptation research.

Geographical information systems (GIS) and diagnostic cartography have traditionally been shown to be useful tools for the application of ecosystem-based management (EBM). To date, bionomic and diagnostic cartographic approaches have been commonly used to support decision-making in the selection, zoning and management of marine protected areas (MPAs), with a range of practical tools developed for this purpose. In addition to these, new and emerging technologies have the potential for generating better information for scientists, managers and other stakeholders alike, such as underwater survey tools, three dimensional (3D) visualisation systems and interactive web platforms. These new methodologies allow taking into account the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of the marine environment, to be managed for conservation. This paper reviews emerging and innovative technologies for marine mapping and marine spatial planning with a special focus on their use in MPA management. These include the generation and use of benthic cartography, scientific visualisation of ecosystem analyses, web-based GIS platforms and their final use as decision-support tools. Seafloor mapping technology has been improved and become more affordable for local scale MPA management purposes. However, the lack of coherent local scale spatial data still remains an issue, limiting the power of diagnostic cartography analyses within MPAs. The proposed framework can improve the generation and dissemination of cartographic and visual data, and allow for management approaches based on scientific knowledge and EBM principles, taking into account stakeholders needs.

Discussions on the need of enabling stakeholder engagement for collaborative Marine Protected Area (MPA) management and deliberative decision-making are progressively evolving. Currently, innovative technologies, such as web based tools and participatory geodesign may provide a vehicle for gathering crucial information capable of informing decisions and drawing new stakeholders into the MPA management process. Participation presents an opportunity to deepen mutual understanding, explore and integrate ideas, generate new options and solutions, and support sustainable use of marine resources and long-term goals for marine conservation. In our research we are exploring stakeholder opinion around current issues and approaches in MPA management, the use of web-based and mobile technology and the role of the stakeholders in MPA integrated management. To this end, we conducted two surveys at different scales (Mediterranean region and Portofino MPA, in Italy) focusing on the use of web technology by managers and other stakeholders at the Mediterranean level and, at the local scale of Portofino MPA. This information will guide our next steps for

Projections of future wave climate at the regional level are essential to develop climate change adaptation strategies for coastal areas. In our research we looked at wave climate projections along the Gold Coast, with a detailed assessment for Palm Beach, one of the most problematic coastal stretches. We adopted a statistical downscaling approach which is based on the statistical relationship between a local wave variable (predictand) and a global atmospheric variable (predictor). This is an efficient method to project regional wave climate based on the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced by different emission scenarios, the main source of information of possible future climates.

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.