Early detection and rapid response are critical to the successful management of non-indigenous species (NIS) and rely on effective surveillance programmes. Risk-based surveillance, where surveillance targets high risk locations, is the most efficient form of NIS surveillance. However, further research is required on the impact of different levels of emphasis on risk, in sampling designs and on surveillance efficacy. This study implements a theoretical surveillance simulator to model the relative merit of different surveillance strategies with different levels of focus on NIS risk for NIS detection at one or more sites. Three potential surveillance scenarios were modelled: random, risk-based and heavy risk-based surveillance, each with three distributions of combined NIS risks of introduction and establishment: exponential, random and uniform. An example analysis using model derived NIS risk data is also provided. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses were conducted to identify variables which influence model outputs. The interaction between sampling method detection probability and changes in NIS abundance was modelled. It was found that NIS risk distribution influences the relative performance of different surveillance strategies and that risk- and heavy risk-based surveillance have lower times to detections and, generally, higher surveillance probabilities of detection compared to random surveillance at more skewed NIS risk distributions. However, there was a trade-off between short detection time and detection failure in risk-based and particularly heavy risk-based surveillance. Therefore, an over-emphasis on risk-based surveillance could provide suboptimal NIS detection. Sensitivity and elasticity analysis showed that the number of NIS seed sites, mean site visit rate and method detection probability had the largest effects on detection time, highlighting the complexity of designing surveillance programmes. In conclusion, the optimal surveillance strategy is conditional on the risk distribution and this study highlights the value of model-based simulators to guide decision-making in the design of NIS surveillance programmes.

Globally, the ecological and socio-economic impacts of non-indigenous species (NIS) are increasingly recognised, prompting the development of international policies and legislation that aim to reduce these impacts. Monitoring programmes are required to assess compliance with legislation and progress towards management targets. However, monitoring programmes often need to fulfil the requirements of several legislative drivers, as well as adapt to changing political circumstances and environmental targets, and thereby face design and implementation challenges. In this paper, we summarise the current legislative drivers for monitoring of non-indigenous marine species and provide a review of existing monitoring in UK waters. This paper also discusses aspirations for NIS monitoring, outlines progress, and provides recommendations to address remaining gaps. While the focus is on the drivers for NIS monitoring in UK marine waters, the key messages, in particular recommendations for future improvements, are applicable on a global scale.

Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and animal welfare, as well as food security. To mitigate impacts and inform policy, tools such as mathematical models and computer simulations are valuable for predicting the potential spread and impact of disease. This paper describes the development of the Aquaculture Disease Network Model, AquaNet-Mod, and demonstrates its application to evaluating disease epidemics and the efficacy of control, using a Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) case study. AquaNet-Mod is a data-driven, stochastic, state-transition model. Disease spread can occur via four different mechanisms, i) live fish movement, ii) river based, iii) short distance mechanical and iv) distance independent mechanical. Sites transit between three disease states: susceptible, clinically infected and subclinically infected. Disease spread can be interrupted by the application of disease mitigation measures and controls such as contact tracing, culling, fallowing and surveillance. Results from a VHS case study highlight the potential for VHS to spread to 96% of sites over a 10 year time horizon if no disease controls are applied. Epidemiological impact is significantly reduced when live fish movement restrictions are placed on the most connected sites and further still, when disease controls, representative of current disease control policy in England and Wales, are applied. The importance of specific disease control measures, particularly contact tracing and disease detection rate, are also highlighted. The merit of this model for evaluation of disease spread and the efficacy of controls, in the context of policy, along with potential for further application and development of the model, for example to include economic parameters, is discussed.

The aquatic ornamental industry, whilst providing socio-economic benefits, is a known introduction pathway for non-native species, which if invasive, can cause direct impacts to native species and ecosystems and also drive disease emergence by extending the geographic range of associated parasites and pathogens and by facilitating host-switching, spillover and spill-back. Although current UK temperatures are typically below those necessary for the survival and establishment of commonly-traded tropical, and some sub-tropical, non-native ornamental species, the higher water temperatures predicted under climate-change scenarios are likely to increase the probability of survival and establishment. Our study aimed primarily to identify which of the commonly-traded non-native ornamental aquatic species (fish and invertebrates), and their pathogens and parasites, are likely to benefit in terms of survival and establishment in UK waters under predicted future climate conditions. Out of 233 ornamental species identified as traded in the UK, 24 were screened, via literature search, for potential parasites and pathogens (PPPs) due to their increased risk of survival and establishment under climate change. We found a total of 155 PPPs, the majority of which were platyhelminths, viruses and bacteria. While many of the identified PPPs were already known to occur in UK waters, PPPs currently absent from UK waters and with zoonotic potential were also identified. Results are discussed in the context of understanding potential impact, in addition to provision of evidence to inform risk assessment and mitigation approaches.

The freshwater and marine ornamental fish industry is a primary route of hazard introduction and emergence, including aquatic animal diseases and non-native species. Prevention measures are key to reducing the risk of hazard incursion and establishment, but there is currently little understanding of the biosecurity practices and hazard responses implemented at post-border stages of the ornamental fish supply chain. This study addresses this knowledge gap, using questionnaires to collate information on actual biosecurity behaviours and hazard responses practised by ornamental fish retailers and hobbyist communities in England. Actual behaviours varied considerably within retailers and hobbyists, suggesting that reliance on preventative practices by individuals in the post-border stages of the ornamental fish supply chain is likely to be ineffective in minimizing the risk of hazard incursion and establishment. Resources should be allocated towards improving and enforcing robust pre- and at-border control measures, such as risk-based surveillance of ornamental fish imports at border controls. In addition, these findings should be used to implement targeted awareness-raising campaigns and help create directed training on biosecurity practices for individuals involved in the post-border stages of the ornamental supply chain.

Disease poses a significant threat to aquaculture. While there are a number of factors contributing to pathogen transmission risk, movement of live fish is considered the most important. Understanding live fish movement patterns for different aquaculture sectors is therefore crucial to predicting disease occurrence and necessary for the development of effective, risk-based biosecurity, surveillance and containment policies. However, despite this, our understanding of live movement patterns of key aquaculture species, namely salmonids and cyprinids, within England and Wales remains limited. In this study, networks reflecting live fish movements associated with the cyprinid and salmonid sectors in England and Wales were constructed. The structure, composition and key attributes of each network were examined and compared to provide insight into the nature of trading patterns and connectedness, as well as highlight sites at a high risk of spreading disease. Connectivity at both site and catchment level was considered to facilitate understanding at different resolutions, providing further insight into disease outbreaks, with industry wide implications. The study highlighted that connectivity through live fish movements was extensive for both industries. The salmonid and cyprinid networks comprised 2533 and 3645 nodes, with a network density of 5.81 × 10-4 and 4.2 × 10-4, respectively. The maximum network reach of 2392 in the salmonid network was higher, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of the overall network, compared to maximum network reach of 2085 in the cyprinid network. However, in contrast, the number of sites in the cyprinid network with a network reach greater than one was 513, compared to 171 in the salmonid network. Patterns of connectivity indicated potential for more frequent yet smaller scale disease outbreaks in the cyprinid industry and less frequent but larger scale outbreaks in the salmonid industry. Further, high connectivity between river catchments within both networks was shown, posing challenges for zoning at the catchment level for the purpose of disease management. In addition to providing insight into pathogen transmission and epidemic potential within the salmonid and cyprinid networks, the study highlights the utility of network analysis, and the value of accessible, accurate live fish movement data in this context. The application of outputs from this study, and network analysis methodology, to inform future disease surveillance and control policies, both within England and Wales and more broadly, is discussed.

The growth of aquaculture over the past 50 years has been accompanied by the emergence of aquatic animal diseases, many of which have spread to become pandemic in countries or continents. An analysis of 400 emerging disease events in aquatic animals that were logged by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science between 2002 and 2017 revealed that more than half were caused by viruses. However, in molluscs, most events were parasitic. Categorising these events indicated that the key processes underpinning emergence were the movement of live animals and host switching. Profiles of key pathogens further illustrate the importance of wild aquatic animals as the source of new infections in farmed animals. It is also clear that the spread of new diseases through the largescale movement of aquatic animals for farming, for food and for the ornamental trade has allowed many to achieve pandemic status. Many viral pathogens of fish (e.g. infectious salmon anaemia, viral haemorrhagic septicaemia) and shrimp (e.g. white spot syndrome virus) affect a large proportion of the global production of key susceptible species. Wild aquatic animal populations have also been severely affected by pandemic diseases, best exemplified by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a fungal infection of amphibians, whose emergence and spread were driven by the movement of animals for the ornamental trade. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is now widespread in the tropics and subtropics and has caused local extinctions of susceptible amphibian hosts. Given the rising demand for seafood, aquacultural production will continue to grow and diseases will continue to emerge. Some will inevitably achieve pandemic status, having significant impacts on production and trade, unless there are considerable changes in global monitoring and the response to aquatic animal diseases.

We analyse the network structure of the British salmonid aquaculture industry from the perspective of infectious disease control. We combine for the first time live fish transport (or movement) data covering England and Wales with data covering Scotland and include network layers representing potential transmission by rivers, sea water and local transmission via human or animal vectors in the immediate vicinity of each farm or fishery site. We find that 7.2% of all live fish transports cross the England-Scotland border and network analysis shows that 87% of English and Welsh nodes and 72% of Scottish nodes are reachable from cross-border connections via live fish transports alone. Consequently, from a disease-control perspective, the contact structures of England and Wales and of Scotland should not be considered in isolation. We also show that large epidemics require the live fish movement network and so control strategies targeting movements can be very effective. While there is relatively low risk of widespread epidemics on the live fish transport network alone, the potential risk is substantially amplified by the combined interaction of multiple network layers.

This study documents the development of a non-lethal sampling method to recover gyrodactylid parasites from large numbers of fish that will underpin an improved surveillance strategy for Gyrodactylus salaris. A review of published literature identified over 80 compounds that have previously been tested against gyrodactylids or closely related parasite species. Five safe and relatively fast-acting compounds were selected for testing to determine their efficiency in removing gyrodactylids from host fish in small-scale aquaria trials using three-spined stickleback infected with Gyrodactylus gasterostei as a model host-parasite system. The most effective compound was hydrogen peroxide; short-duration exposure (3 min) achieved a parasite detection sensitivity of 80%-89%. The practicality of exposing farmed salmonids to hydrogen peroxide for G. salaris surveillance was tested in the field by conducting a parasite recovery trial using a brown trout stock endemically infected with G. truttae and G. derjavinoides and comparing this to the whole-body examination procedure currently conducted by UK authorities. Significantly more parasites were recovered after exposing fish to hydrogen peroxide and filtering the treatment solution than by direct whole-body examination of killed fish (mean: 225 vs. 138 parasites per fish). The gyrodactylid recovery rate of the two methods was 84.6% and 51.9%, respectively. A comparison of timings for the two methods indicated scope for significant time savings in adopting the chemical screening method. The study demonstrated that hydrogen peroxide bath treatment may be successfully applied to the surveillance of gyrodactylid parasites and established as a non-lethal method for sampling farmed and wild fish. This approach has the potential to reduce resources required to collect and isolate parasites for diagnostic testing and improve the sensitivity and confidence of surveillance programmes designed to demonstrate freedom from disease, thus underpinning a robust and defensible surveillance strategy for G. salaris for the UK aquatic animal disease contingency plan.

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively.

A qualitative import risk assessment was undertaken to assess the likelihood of introduction and establishment of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype 1a in England and Wales (E&W), via the processing of imported rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) carcasses from continental Europe. The likelihood was estimated for one import from an infected farm. Four main routes by which susceptible populations could be exposed to VHSV via processing waste were considered: (i) run-off from solid waste to watercourses, (ii) contamination of birds or rodents with VHSV by scavenging solid waste, (iii) discharge of liquid waste to mains drainage, and (iv) discharge of liquid waste directly to watercourses. Data on the biophysical characteristics of VHSV, its epidemiology, fish processing practices and waste management were collected. Likelihoods for each step of the four pathways were estimated. Pathway 4 (discharge of liquid waste to a watercourse) was judged as the most likely to result in infection of susceptible individuals. Levels of virus entering the aquatic environment via pathways 1-3 were judged to be many times lower than pathway 4 due mainly to the treatment of solid waste (pathways 1 and 2) and high levels of dilution (pathways 1, 2 and 3). Thirty-four trout farms process fish, of which seven have imported carcasses for processing. Compared with other processing facilities, on-farm processing results in a higher likelihood of VHSV exposure and establishment via all four pathways. Data availability was an issue; the analysis was particularly constrained by a lack of data on the prevalence of VHSV in Europe, volume of trade of carcasses into the UK and processing practices in E&W. It was concluded that the threat of VHSV introduction into E&W could be reduced by treatment of liquid effluent from processing plants and by sourcing carcasses for on-farm processing only from approved VHSV free areas.

A new skin condition, known as puffy skin disease (PSD), emerged in farmed rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum) in 2002. The number of new cases increased considerably from 2006. Clinical signs include white or grey skin patches, which become raised and red with excessive mucous production and scale loss. Fish are inappetant and lose condition. Histologically, the key feature is epithelial hyperplasia. We undertook a questionnaire study of trout farmers in England and Wales to investigate prevalence and risk factors. PSD was reported on 37% (n=49) of rainbow trout sites, located in 28 river catchments. The increase in cases from 2006 onwards was mirrored by the increase in red mark syndrome (RMS). Prevalence and severity of PSD were highest in the summer months. The presence of PSD was associated with RMS (OR=9.7, P<0.001). Sites receiving live rainbow trout in the previous 12months were considerably more likely to have PSD (OR=5.3. P<0.01), which suggests an infectious aetiology. The size of affected fish and prevalence varied between farms, indicating that farm-level factors are important. Future research should further investigate the aetiology of PSD and practices to manage the disease.

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

An expert consultation was conducted to provide quantitative parameters required to inform risk-based surveillance of aquaculture holdings for selected infectious hazards. The hazards were four fish diseases endemic in some or several European countries: infectious salmon anaemia (ISA), viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN), and koi herpes virus disease (KHD). Experts were asked to provide estimates for the relative importance of 5 risk themes for the hazard to be introduced into and infect susceptible fish at the destination. The 5 risk themes were: (1) live fish and egg movements; (2) exposure via water; (3) on-site processing; (4) short distance mechanical transmission and (5) distance independent mechanical transmission. The experts also provided parameter estimates for hazard transmission pathways within the themes. The expert consultation was undertaken in a 2 step approach: an online survey followed by an expert consultation meeting. The expert opinion indicated that live fish movements and exposure via water were the major relevant risk themes. Experts were recruited from several European countries and thus covered a range of farming systems. Therefore, the outputs from the expert consultation have relevance for the European context.

The application of risk analysis to the spread of disease with international trade in animals and their products, that is, import risk analysis (IRA), has been largely driven by the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The degree to which the IRA standard established by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and associated guidance, meets the needs of the SPS agreement is discussed. The use of scenario trees is the core modelling approach used to represent the steps necessary for the hazard to occur. There is scope to elaborate scenario trees for commodity IRA so that the quantity of hazard at each step is assessed, which is crucial to the likelihood of establishment. The dependence between exposure and establishment suggests that they should fall within the same subcomponent. IRA undertaken for trade reasons must include an assessment of consequences to meet SPS criteria, but guidance is sparse. The integration of epidemiological and economic modelling may open a path for better methods. Matrices have been used in qualitative IRA to combine estimates of entry and exposure, and consequences with likelihood, but this approach has flaws and better methods are needed. OIE IRA standards and guidance indicate that the volume of trade should be taken into account, but offer no detail. Some published qualitative IRAs have assumed current levels and patterns of trade without specifying the volume of trade, which constrains the use of IRA to determine mitigation measures (to reduce risk to an acceptable level) and whether the principle of equivalence, fundamental to the SPS agreement, has been observed. It is questionable whether qualitative IRA can meet all the criteria set out in the SPS agreement. Nevertheless, scope exists to elaborate the current standards and guidance, so they better serve the principle of science-based decision-making.

EFSA Supporting PublicationsVolume 10, Issue 7 469E Event reportOpen Access EFSA's information meeting: identification of welfare indicators for monitoring procedures at slaughterhouses Birgit Oidtmann, Birgit Oidtmann Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorEdmund Peeler, Edmund Peeler Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorMark Thrush, Mark Thrush Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorFiona Pearce, Fiona Pearce Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorKatharina Stärk, Katharina Stärk Royal Veterinary CollegeSearch for more papers by this authorTrude Marie Lyngstad, Trude Marie Lyngstad Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorEdgar Brun, Edgar Brun Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorSaraya Tavornparnich, Saraya Tavornparnich Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorBritt Bang Jensen, Britt Bang Jensen Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorManuela Dalla Pozza, Manuela Dalla Pozza Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieSearch for more papers by this authorChiara Cheolin, Chiara Cheolin Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieSearch for more papers by this authorAngus Cameron, Angus Cameron AusVetSearch for more papers by this author Birgit Oidtmann, Birgit Oidtmann Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorEdmund Peeler, Edmund Peeler Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorMark Thrush, Mark Thrush Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorFiona Pearce, Fiona Pearce Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (project co-ordinator)Search for more papers by this authorKatharina Stärk, Katharina Stärk Royal Veterinary CollegeSearch for more papers by this authorTrude Marie Lyngstad, Trude Marie Lyngstad Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorEdgar Brun, Edgar Brun Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorSaraya Tavornparnich, Saraya Tavornparnich Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorBritt Bang Jensen, Britt Bang Jensen Norwegian Veterinary InstituteSearch for more papers by this authorManuela Dalla Pozza, Manuela Dalla Pozza Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieSearch for more papers by this authorChiara Cheolin, Chiara Cheolin Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle VenezieSearch for more papers by this authorAngus Cameron, Angus Cameron AusVetSearch for more papers by this author First published: 30 July 2013 https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2013.EN-469 Published date: 30 July 2013 Question number: EFSA-Q-2013-00443 AboutPDF ToolsExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Volume10, Issue7July 2013469E ReferencesRelatedInformation

Ambient water temperature is a key factor controlling the distribution and impact of disease in fish populations, and optimum temperature ranges have been characterised for the establishment of a number important aquatic diseases exotic to the UK. This study presents a simple regression method to approximate daily average surface water temperature in lakes of 0.5-15ha in size across the UK using 5km(2) gridded daily average air temperatures provided by the UK Meteorological Office. A Geographic information system (GIS) is used to present thematic maps of relative risk scores established for each grid cell based on the mean number of days per year that water temperature satisfied optimal criteria for the establishment of two economically important pathogens of cyprinid fish (koi herpesvirus (KHV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV)) and the distribution and density of fish populations susceptible to these viruses. High-density susceptible populations broadly overlap the areas where the temperature profiles are optimal for KHV (central and south-east England); however, few fish populations occur in areas where temperature profiles are most likely to result in the establishment of spring viremia of carp (SVC) (namely northern England and Scotland). The highest grid-cell risk scores for KHV and SVC were 7 and 6, respectively, out of a maximum score of 14. The proportion of grid cells containing susceptible populations with risk scores of 5 or more was 37% and 5% for KHV and SVC, respectively. This work demonstrates a risk-based approach to inform surveillance for exotic pathogens in aquatic animal health management, allowing efficient use of resources directed towards higher risk animals and geographic areas for early disease detection. The methodology could be used to examine the change in distribution of high-risk areas for both exotic and endemic fish diseases under different climate change scenarios.

Spring viraemia of carp (SVC) is a disease of international importance that predominantly affects cyprinid fish and can cause significant mortality. In the United Kingdom (UK), SVC was first detected in 1977 with further cases occurring in fisheries, farms, wholesale and retail establishments throughout England and Wales (but not Scotland, where few cyprinid populations exist, nor Northern Ireland where SVC has never been detected) over the subsequent 30 years. Following a control and eradication programme for the disease initiated in 2005, the UK was recognised free of the disease in 2010. This study compiles historic records of SVC cases in England and Wales with a view to understanding its routes of introduction and spread, and assessing the effectiveness of the control and eradication programme in order to improve contingency plans to prevent and control future disease incursions in the cyprinid fish sectors. Between 1977 and 2010 the presence of SVC was confirmed on 108 occasions, with 65 of the cases occurring in sport fisheries and the majority of the remainder occurring in the ornamental fish sector. The study found that throughout the history of SVC in the UK, though cases were widely distributed, their occurrence was sporadic and the virus did not become endemic. All evidence indicates that SVC was not able to persist under UK environmental conditions, suggesting that the majority of cases were a result of new introductions to the UK as opposed to within-country spread. The control and eradication programme adopted in 2005 was highly effective and two years after its implementation cases of SVC ceased. Given the non-persistent nature of the pathogen the most important aspect of the control programme focused on preventing re-introduction of the virus to the UK. Despite the effectiveness of these controls against SVC, this approach is likely to be less effective against more persistent pathogens such as koi herpesvirus, which are likely to require more stringent measures to prevent within-country spread.

A consequence assessment framework was developed to evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of an exotic disease in the context of supporting policy level decisions on mitigation strategies. The framework adopted a semi-qualitative analysis of impacts supported by expert judgement. The efficacy of the framework was illustrated via assessment of the notifiable fish disease, Gyrodactylus salaris. In this example, the economic cost of an illustrative outbreak of G. salaris ranged from 0.22 pound million to 90 pound million. The cost of the most likely scenario (regional spread) was estimated to be 7.5 pound million (minimum to maximum range of 222 pound million), reflecting the uncertainty in the extent of spread of the parasite before detection. The environmental impacts vary by a factor of 35 between incursion scenarios reflecting the number of affected catchments in the scenarios.