We examine trends in author representation, research topics, and impact of citations to articles in the American Economic Review and what was formerly its Papers & Proceedings (P&P). Over what we refer to as the P&P expansion period (2008-2017), we see a significant shift toward greater diversity of P&P authors with respect to gender and institutions, and the range of topics covered. Importantly, the rise in inclusivity during this time period occurred without any loss of impact, with P&P article citations actually rising relative to regular-issue articles. Thus, our analysis suggests there is no trade-off between impact and inclusion.

Among the extraordinary shocks to household life caused by the Covid-19 pandemic was the sudden shift to distance learning in K-12 schools. Gone were Monday through Friday routines of school day, extracurricular activities, and evening homework; schools scrambled to launch alternative delivery systems, expecting parents to step in and spend significant amounts of time helping children continue to learn. This study examines the sudden shift to distance learning using data from U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Conducted weekly from April through July 2020, the survey tracked COVID-related shocks to employment, health, food and housing security, and education in the U.S. population. We use Pulse data on 200,000 households with K-12 children to examine how school systems shifted, how parents stepped up and spent time helping children learn, how parental time inputs varied with parent education, and how education changes intersected with other pandemic shocks, including job loss and food insecurity. We find that parents and children spent significantly more time in learning activities when their schools provided diversified educational inputs, especially live contact time with teachers; live contact hours also facilitated children learning on their own. Given the type of alternative schooling, less educated parents spent no less time helping children than better educated parents, although they faced significantly more problems with computer and internet access. Thus, parents generally tried to help children continue learning in the pandemic, albeit with potentially wide variation in the resources they could supply to mitigate the drop in learning.

The shortage of women and historically underrepresented racial and ethnic groups in the economics profession has received considerable public attention in the past several years. The American Economic Association (AEA), the professional organization for economists, has been taking steps to address criticism that the economics discipline is unwelcoming to women and underrepresented minorities.

Background In 2010, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed requiring tobacco companies to add graphic warning labels (GWLs) to cigarette packs. GWLs are large prominently placed warnings that use both text and photographic images to depict health risks of smoking. The companies challenged FDA's authority on First Amendment grounds; the courts accepted that FDA could compel companies to add GWLs, but argued that FDA had not established that GWLs would significantly reduce smoking.Objective This paper adds new evidence on the question of whether GWLs would have reduced cigarette demand, by examining whether tobacco companies' share prices fell unusually after news indicating a higher likelihood of having GWLs, and rose on the opposite news. Such findings would be expected if investors viewed GWLs as likely to reduce cigarette demand.Methods An event-study approach is used to determine whether the stock prices of US tobacco companies rose or fell unusually after news events in the period when GWLs were proposed, finalised, challenged and withdrawn.Findings Tobacco companies' stock prices indeed realised significant abnormal returns after GWL news, consistent with expected negative effects on cigarette demand. Our estimates suggest investors expected GWLs to reduce the number of smokers by an extra 2.4-6.9 million in the 10 years after the rule took effect.Conclusions These findings support the view that the GWLs proposed by FDA would have curbed cigarette consumption in the USA in an appreciable way.

The Supreme Court recently held that in reverse-payment settlements of drug patent disputes, anticompetitive effects can be inferred if the reverse payment exceeds the patent holder's anticipated litigation costs, absent some offsetting justification. Application of this standard is problematic because defendants usually: (I) obscure the amount of the reverse payment; and (2) claim their settlement was justified by risk aversion. Further, even if a net reverse payment can be proven, it is little help in estimating the period of delay or damages. This Essay offers another type of evidence that demonstrates and quantifies anticompetitive effects. An otherwise unexplained bump in the patent holder's stock price shows that the settlement created new future profits by extending the period without generic competition beyond what the stock market expected. The stock market test has several advantages: it rebuts the risk aversion claim (which cannot explain the stock price rise); it more effectively (though still conservatively) captures damages than the magnitude of the reverse payment; and, finally, it relies on the behavior of objective traders rather than deal makers with well-understood incentives to obscure the presence of a payment. We conduct a stock market event study on one of the early instances of a reverse-payment settlement to illustrate how the method works.

Although there has been little economic research on 'ethical consumption' in a general sense, work on its various aspects is growing. This paper reviews economic research on ethical consumption, examining both demand-and supply-side aspects. It is argued that the most promising way to see ethical consumption through an economic lens is via models with heterogeneous consumers, in which some have strong intrinsic motivation to adopt ethical-consumption practices, others will adopt if they perceive a practice to be becoming a social norm and its extra costs are moderate, and others still will be impervious to it. Implications for the spread of ethical consumption and its ability to affect change are considered.

The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit-cost analyses has been contentious. There are clear health benefits of regulations that curb consumption of goods with health risks, such as tobacco products and foods high in fats, calories, sugar, and sodium. Yet, if regulations cause consumers to give up goods, they like, the health benefits they experience may be offset by some utility loss, which benefit-cost analyses of regulations need to take into account. This paper lays out the complications of measuring benefits of regulations aiming to curb consumption of addictive and habitual goods, rooted in the fact that consumers' observed demand for such goods may not be in line with their true preferences. Focusing on the important case of tobacco products, the paper describes four possible approaches for estimating benefits when consumers' preferences may not be aligned with their behavior, and identifies one as having the best feasibility for use in applied benefit-cost analyses in the near term. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

The analysis of regulations affecting addictive or habitual goods has drawn considerable controversy. Some studies have suggested that such regulations have only small welfare benefits, as consumers value these goods despite health benefits from quitting, while other studies suggest that information or behavioral problems make existing consumption decisions a poor guide to welfare evaluation. We examine potential utility offsets to health benefits of regulations affecting addictive or habitual goods theoretically and empirically. Our analysis focuses on individuals who consume these goods only, ignoring other social costs and benefits. Theoretically, we show the importance of several factors including: money saved in addition to health improvements; differentiating steady-state utility losses from short-term withdrawal costs; lack of utility loss for people dissuaded from starting to consume the good; and accounting for utility consequences of explicit or implicit cost increases. Our empirical analysis considers regulations that affect smoking. To measure the welfare cost of smoking cessation, we divide the population into those with more and less rational smoking behavior and use the valuation of smoking from more rational smokers to impute values of losses for less rational smokers. Our results show that the utility cost of smoking cessation is small relative to the health gains in people for whom withdrawal costs are the main utility loss of quitting, and even among people who have some ongoing loss, the utility offsets represent 20%–25% of the health gains. While marginal smokers induced to quit by regulations can be expected to have low or no steady-state loss, even this higher estimate is far below prevailing estimates of the utility cost of smoking used by the Food and Drug Administration and other analysts.

Brand and generic drug manufacturers frequently settle patent litigation on terms that include a payment to the generic manufacturer. The Federal Trade Commission contends that these agreements extend the brand's market exclusivity and amount to anticompetitive market division. Involved parties defend the settlements as normal business agreements that reduce business risk. The anticompetitive hypothesis implies brand stock prices should rise with settlement announcements. We classify 68 brand-generic settlements into those with and without indication of a "reverse payment," and conduct an event study of the settlement announcement's influence on the brand's stock price. For settlements with indication of a reverse payment, brand stock prices rise on average 6% at the announcement. A control group of brandgeneric settlements without indication of a reverse payment had no significant effect. Our results support the hypothesis that settlements with a reverse payment increase the expected profits of the brand manufacturer and are anticompetitive.

Abstract In considering whether asset-price bubbles should be offset through policy, an important issue is who pays the price when the bubble bursts. A bust that reduces the wealth of well-off households only may have small welfare costs, but costs may be sizable if broad swaths of households are affected. This paper uses micro data on millions of households from the US American Community Survey to examine how the bursting of the 1998–2006 housing bubble affected households’ employment, homeownership, home values, and housing costs. To separate dynamics of the housing bust from those of the aggregate downturn, we differentiate between metropolitan areas that did and did not experience bubbles. We find that, for most measures, deteriorations in well-being were more severe in bubble metros than elsewhere, and for several measures, differential effects on less-educated households were also more severe. This underscores the importance of leaning against broad-based housing bubbles via appropriate policies, as burdens of adjustment fall differentially on people not well prepared to bear them.

The U.S. recession of 2007–2009 saw unemployment rates for men rise by significantly more than those for women, resulting in the downturn’s characterization as a ‘mancession’. This paper uses data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reexamine gender-related dimensions of the 2007–2009 recession. Unlike most previous work, we analyze data that connects men’s and women’s employment status to that of their spouses. A difference-in-difference framework is used to characterize how labor-market outcomes for one spouse varied according to outcomes for the other. Results show that that employment rates of women whose husbands were non-employed rose significantly in the recession, while those for people in other situations held steady or fell—consistent with the view that women took on additional bread-winning responsibilities to make up for lost income. However, probabilities of non-participation did not rise by more for men with working wives than they did for other men, casting doubt on ideas that men in this situation made weaker efforts to return to work because they could count on their wives’ paychecks to support the household.

Brand and generic drug manufacturers frequently settle patent litigation on terms that include a to the generic manufacturer along with a specified date at which the generic would enter the market. The Federal Trade Commission contends that these agreements extend the brand's market exclusivity and amount to anticompetitive divisions of the market. The parties involved defend the settlements as normal business agreements that reduce business risk associated with litigation. The anticompetitive hypothesis implies brand stock prices should rise with announcement of the settlement. We classify 68 brand-generic settlements from 1993 to the present into those with and without an indication of a payment from the brand to the generic, and conduct an event study of the announcement of the patent settlements on the stock price of the brand. For settlements with an indication of a reverse payment, brand stock prices rise on average 6% at the announcement. A control group of brand-generic settlements without indication of a reverse had no significant effect on the brands' stock prices. Our results support the hypothesis that settlements with a reverse increase the expected profits of the brand manufacturer and are anticompetitive.

Researchers have disagreed about factors driving up health care spending since the 1980s. One camp, led by Kenneth Thorpe, identifies rising numbers of people being treated for chronic diseases as a major factor. Charles Roehrig and David Rousseau reach the opposite conclusion: that three-quarters of growth in average spending reflects the rising costs of treating given diseases. We reexamined sources of spending growth using data from four nationally representative surveys. We found that rising costs of treatment accounted for 70 percent of growth in real average health care spending from 1980 to 2006. The contribution of shares of the population treated for given diseases increased in 1997-2006, but even then it accounted for only one-third of spending growth. We highlight the fact that Thorpe's inclusion of population growth as part of disease prevalence explains the appreciable difference in results. An important policy implication is that programs to better manage chronic diseases may only modestly reduce average spending growth.

Antitrust analysis conventionally assumes that illegal agreements among competitors raise prices and lower quantities, relative to lawful competition. However, markets for healthcare services have tendencies towards overprovision, which may increase when competition declines. This paper examines this possibility using data from a well-known antitrust case in Wisconsin. We find that, in parts of the state where physician groups illegally divided up markets, costs of physician services rose by about 10% more than they did elsewhere, with about half of this increase due to increased services. This suggests that higher quantities can contribute to healthcare antitrust damages, along with higher prices.

In calculating damages in healthcare antitrust cases, the difference-in-differences (DID) approach provides a potentially valuable means of controlling for lawful factors that influence prices, such as case mix and quality of care, as distinct from price differentials due to unlawful behavior. After comparing DID to traditional methods of estimating damages, this paper uses DID to analyze data from a well-known case against Marshfield Clinic, a large multi-specialty group practice that was found to have illegally allocated markets for physician services in Central Wisconsin. Using a specification similar to what was used in the case, we find that illegal behavior accounted for about one-half of the Clinic’s extra increase in costs per patient during the damage period. The courts, however, were not persuaded that the analysis adequately controlled for legal factors. We discuss potential pitfalls in using DID to estimate damages suggested by the case, as well as possible ways around them.

Qualitative research in economics has traditionally been unimportant compared to quantitative work. Yet there has been a small explosion in use of quantitative approaches in the past 10–15 years, including ‘mixed-methods’ projects which use qualitative and quantitative methods in combination. This paper surveys the growing use of qualitative methods in economics and closely related fields, aiming to provide economists with a useful roadmap through major sets of qualitative methods and how and why they are used. We review the growing body of economic research using qualitative approaches, emphasizing the gains from using qualitative- or mixed-methods over traditional ‘closed-ended’ approaches. It is argued that, although qualitative methods are often portrayed as less reliable, less accurate, less powerful and/or less credible than quantitative methods, in fact, the two sets of methods have their own strengths, and how much can be learned from one type of method or the other depends on specific issues that arise in studying the topic of interest. The central message of the paper is that well-done qualitative work can provide scientifically valuable and intellectually helpful ways of adding to the stock of economic knowledge, especially when applied to research questions for which they are well suited.

This paper investigates the influence of economic news on consumer sentiment, and examines whether news shockschanges in coverage that would not be expected from incoming data on economic fundamentalshave aggregate effects. Using monthly U.S. data and a structural vector autoregression, I find that (1) sentiment is affected by news shocks; (2) after filtering out effects of news shocks, shocks to sentiment still have positive effects on consumer spending; and (3) news shocks influence both spending and unemployment in significant, though transitory ways. These results are consistent with other evidence of a role of nonfundamental factors in aggregate fluctuations. (JEL E21, E32, D12)