Abstract The assessment of volcanic hazards is crucial to develop effective emergency plans, especially for volcanoes close to urban areas or under air traffic routes. Impact assessment for expected scenarios relies on underlying numerical models that require eruption source parameters as inputs, and forecasts drastically depend on their robust reconstruction during ongoing events. We apply a novel tephra deposit inversion workflow built on ensemble methods and data assimilation techniques to reconstruct the explosive events that occurred at Mt Etna, Italy, between 3 and 5 December 2015. Based on results from previous studies, we reconstruct this eruption using the Gaussian with Non‐negative Constraints data assimilation method. Results agree well with independent observations and highlight the potential for automatized procedures in volcanic hazard assessment.

Explosive volcanic eruptions can produce vast amounts of volcanic ash made up mainly of fragments of magmatic glass, country rock and minerals < 2 mm in size. Ash particles forming from magma fragmentation are generated by several processes when brittle response accommodates (local) deformation stress that exceeds the capability of the bulk material to respond by viscous flow. These processes span a wide range of temperatures, can occur inside or outside the volcanic edifice and can involve all melt compositions. Ash is then dispersed by volcanic and atmospheric processes over large distances and can have global distributions. Explosive eruptions have repeatedly drawn focus to studying volcanic ash. The continued occurrence of such eruptions worldwide and their widespread impacts motivates the study of the chemical and physical processes involved in the lifecycle of volcanic ash (e.g. magma fragmentation, particle aggregation), as well as the immediate to long-term effects (e.g. water and air pollution, soil fertilization) and consequences (e.g. environmental, economic, social) associated with ashfall. In this perspectives article, we reflect on the progress made over the last two decades in understanding (1) volcanic ash generation; (2) dispersion, sedimentation and erosion; and (3) impacts on the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and modern infrastructure. Finally, we discuss open questions and future challenges.

Significance The Tierra Blanca Joven eruption of Ilopango occurred during Maya times but the exact timing and its impact have been controversial. It was thought to be responsible for the anomalously cold decade experienced in the Northern Hemisphere centered at 540 CE, but this date is at odds with archeological evidence that suggests a date near the start of the Early Classic Period (pre-450 CE). Our precise age of 431 ± 2 CE allows us to pinpoint the eruption in proxy records and shows that its impact was apparently limited. It appears to have only had major effects on populations within ∼80 km of the volcano, where the regions were blanketed by decimeters of ash fallout and pyroclastic density currents.

Among the active volcanoes worldwide, Somma-Vesuvius is one with the highest volcanic risk as the surrounding areas are highly populated. Somma-Vesuvius is quiescent since 1944, but geological and historical records reveal a frequent violent explosive activity in the last 4000 years, representing a severe risk for the 700,000 inhabitants currently living in the area having a high probability for being impacted by pyroclastic density currents ("red zone") and more than one million people who can be potentially affected by tephra fallout. This study aims to analyze the distribution and grain-size of tephra fallout deposits from several Somma-Vesuvius eruptions of different styles, ranging from Violent Strombolian to sub-Plinian and Plinian, for characterizing the associated magmatic fragmentation through the assessment of their total grain-size distribution (TGSD). Chronologically, we focus on the Avellino (4365 BP) and Pompeii (A.D. 79) Plinian eruptions, the Pollena (A.D. 472) sub-Plinian eruption, and the 1906 and 1944 Violent Strombolian eruptions. The related TGSDs were estimated by means of the Voronoi tessellation method, which requires a suitable number of local grain-size distributions and estimation of the area of minimum tephra loading (zero-line contour). However, field-derived TGSDs can be biased towards the coarse and fine grain-size populations due to the typical paucity of available field outcrops of fallout deposits. To encompass this issue, we performed a sensitivity study on the assumption behind TGSD reconstructions and described TGSDs through analytical grain-size distributions that best fit the field TGSDs. Our main objective is a more robust estimation of the TGSDs associated with the different eruptive styles, which is crucial, together with the other eruption source parameters, for robustly predicting tephra loading and airborne ash dispersal of future eruptions at Somma-Vesuvius. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Ilopango caldera is the source of the large Tierra Blanca Joven (TBJ) eruption that occurred about 1.5 ka years ago, between ca. AD270 and AD535. The eruption dispersed volcanic ash over much of the present territory of El Salvador, and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) extended 40 km from the volcano. In this study, we document the physical characteristics of the deposits from all over El Salvador to further constrain the eruption processes and the intensity and magnitude of the different phases of the eruption. The succession of deposits generated by the TBJ eruption is made of 8 units. The eruption started with PDCs of hydromagmatic origin (Unit A(0)), followed by fallout deposits (Units A and B) that are <15 cm thick and exposed in sections close to the Ilopango caldera (within 10-15 km). The eruption, then, transitioned into a regime that generated further PDCs (Units C-F), these range from dilute to dense and they filled the depressions near the llopango caldera with thicknesses up to 70 m. Deposits from the co-ignimbrite plume (Unit G) are the most widespread, the deposits are found in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the Pacific Ocean and cm-thick across El Salvador. Modelling of the deposits suggests that column heights were 29 km and 7 km for the first two fallout phases, and that the co-ignimbrite phoenix plume rose up to 49 km. Volumes estimated for the fallout units are 0.15, 0.8 and 16 km(3) dense rock equivalent (DRE) for Unit A, B and G respectively. The PDCs deposits volumes were estimated to be similar to 0.5, similar to 3.3, similar to 0.3 and similar to 9.1 km(3) DRE for Units C, D, E and F, respectively. The combined volume of TBJ deposits is similar to 30 km(3) DRE (similar to 58 km(3) bulk rock), indicating that it was one of largest Holocene eruptions from Central America. This eruption occurred while Mayan populations were living in the region and it would have had a significant impact on the areas within tens of kilometres of the vent for many years to decades after the eruption. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Volcanic risk at Vesuvius is one of the highest in the world due to the similar to 670,000 inhabitants living in the Red Zone, the area exposed to both pyroclastic flows and tephra fallout, to be evacuated before renewal of any eruptive activity. The national emergency plan for Vesuvius builds its risk zonation on a scenario similar to the last sub-Plinian eruption, which occurred in 1631. This study aims at providing new insights on the geometry of the caldera associated with this historical eruption. The impact of past Vesuvius eruptions on present-day soil CO2 concentration has been investigated by means of an extended geochemical survey carried out for identifying the circulation pathways of hydrothermal fluids inside the volcano. We performed 4018 soil CO2 concentration measurements over the whole Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex, covering an area of 50 km(2). Besides relatively low values, the results show a significant spatial CO2 concentration heterogeneity over Somma-Vesuvius ranging from the atmospheric value (similar to 400 ppm) up to similar to 24,140 ppm. The summit of Vesuvius shows an area with anomalous CO2 concentrations well matching the crater rim of the 1906 eruption. Along the cone flanks, secondary CO2 anomalies highlight a roughly circular preferential pathway detected along 8 radial profiles at distances between similar to 840 m and similar to 1150 m from the bottom of the present-day crater resulting from the last eruption in 1944. In depth review of the available literature highlights an agreement between this circle-like shaped anomaly and the 1631 sub-Plinian eruption caldera boundary. Indeed, based on the historical chronicles the depression produced by the 1631 eruption had a diameter of 1686 m, whereas the CO2 circular anomaly indicates a diameter of 1956 m. Finally, the results were compared with a 3-D density model obtained from a recent gravity survey that corroborates both the literature and the CO2 data in terms of potential buried structure at the base of the Vesuvius cone. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The 1959 eruption of Kīlauea Iki on the Island of Hawai’i is a principal example of powerful Hawaiian fountaining. Over 36 days (including repose periods), 16 fountaining episodes created a small cone, a downwind tephra blanket of approximately 0.003 km3 and a lava lake of about 0.04 km3 volume. During the explosive activity, the maximum fountain heights reached 600 m. Based on a dataset of more than 450 tephra grain size samples, we present both a total grain size distribution (TGSD) of the entire downwind tephra deposit, and also TGSDs for two eruptive subunits (the opening and the closing stages). The opening stage was characterized by persistent fountaining over a period of 8 days with fountain heights averaging ∼ 100 m; in contrast, the closing stage was characterized by two short (hours-long) but powerful fountaining episodes (up to 600 m). The significantly different fountaining intensities are reflected in the characteristics of the TGSDs. For the closing stages, we link bimodality of TGSDs to periods of simultaneous deposition of ballistics and fallout from the convective cloud, both of which are a function of the maximum fountain height. The 1959 Kīlauea Iki case study presents a well-constrained set of TGSD data linked with Hawaiian-style fountaining of two contrasting intensities and can be used as a valuable reference point for eruption source parameters in future modeling of pyroclast dispersal during Hawaiian fountaining eruptions.

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Volcanic plumes from Etna volcano (Italy) are governed by easterly winds driving ash over the Ionian Sea. The limited land tephra deposit makes total grain-size distribution (TGSD) assessment and its fine ash fraction highly uncertain. On 23 February 2013, a lava fountain produced a similar to 9-km-high column above sea level (a.s.l.). The atypical north-easterly wind direction dispersed the tephra from Etna to the Puglia region (southern Italy) allowing sampling up to very distal areas. This study uses field measurements to estimate the field-based TGSD. Very fine ash distribution (particle matter below 10mPM(10)) is explored parameterizing the field-TGSD through a bi-lognormal and bi-Weibull distribution. However, none of the two latter TGSDs allow simulating any far-traveling airborne ash up to distal areas. Accounting for the airborne ash retrieved from satellite (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), we proposed an empirical modification of the field-based TGSD including very fine ash through a power law decay of the distribution. The input source parameters are inverted by comparing simulations against measurements. Results suggest a column height of similar to 8.7kma.s.l., a total erupted mass of similar to 4.9x10(9)kg, a PM10 content between 0.4 and 1.3wt%, and an aggregate fraction of similar to 2wt% of the fine ash. Aerosol optical depth measurements from the AErosol RObotic NETwork are also used to corroborate the results at similar to 1,700km from the source. Integrating numerical models with field, ground-based, and satellite-based data aims at providing a better TGSD estimation including very fine ash, crucial for air traffic safety. Plain Language Summary On 23 February 2013, an intense lava fountain at Etna volcano, Italy, produced a similar to 9-km-high volcanic plume. The effect of a south-westerly winds dispersed the erupted material (tephra) from Etna to the Puglia region (similar to 410km from the source; southern Italy). These conditions permitted tephra sampling from the volcano up to Puglia. Field data are used to assess the total grain-size distribution (TGSD) to feed the FALL3D tephra dispersal model to reconstruct the tephra loading and airborne ash dispersal. To account for satellite data, we modified the TGSD adding the missing very fine ash content. Best simulations were selected by comparing computed and observed measurements in terms of tephra loadings and airborne ash mass. Results give an eruptive column height of similar to 8.7kma.s.l., a total erupted mass of similar to 4.9x10(9)kg, a very fine ash content between 0.4 and 1.3wt%, and an aggregated ash fraction of similar to 2wt% of the fine ash. Results are also compared with aerosol measurements. Integrating numerical models with field and satellite-based data aims at providing a better TGSD estimation including the very fine ash fraction (below 0.01mm), crucial for air traffic safety.

Recent explosive volcanic eruptions recorded worldwide (e.g. Hekla in 2000, Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, Cordón-Caulle in 2011) demonstrated the necessity for a better assessment of the eruption source parameters (ESPs; e.g. column height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, and total grain-size distribution – TGSD) to reduce the uncertainties associated with the far-travelling airborne ash mass. Volcanological studies started to integrate observations to use more realistic numerical inputs, crucial for taking robust volcanic risk mitigation actions. On 23 November 2013, Etna (Italy) erupted, producing a 10 km height plume, from which two volcanic clouds were observed at different altitudes from satellites (SEVIRI, MODIS). One was retrieved as mainly composed of very fine ash (i.e. PM20), and the second one as made of ice/SO2 droplets (i.e. not measurable in terms of ash mass). An atypical north-easterly wind direction transported the tephra from Etna towards the Calabria and Apulia regions (southern Italy), permitting tephra sampling in proximal (i.e. ∼ 5–25 km from the source) and medial areas (i.e. the Calabria region, ∼ 160 km). A primary TGSD was derived from the field measurement analysis, but the paucity of data (especially related to the fine ash fraction) prevented it from being entirely representative of the initial magma fragmentation. To better constrain the TGSD assessment, we also estimated the distribution from the X-band weather radar data. We integrated the field and radar-derived TGSDs by inverting the relative weighting averages to best fit the tephra loading measurements. The resulting TGSD is used as input for the FALL3D tephra dispersal model to reconstruct the whole tephra loading. Furthermore, we empirically modified the integrated TGSD by enriching the PM20 classes until the numerical results were able to reproduce the airborne ash mass retrieved from satellite data. The resulting TGSD is inverted by best-fitting the field, ground-based, and satellite-based measurements. The results indicate a total erupted mass of 1.2 × 109 kg, being similar to the field-derived value of 1.3 × 109 kg, and an initial PM20 fraction between 3.6 and 9.0 wt %, constituting the tail of the TGSD.

Numerical modeling of ash plume dispersal is an important tool for forecasting and mitigating potential hazards from volcanic ash erupted during explosive volcanism. Recent tephra dispersal models have been expanded to account for dynamic ash aggregation processes. However, there are very few studies on rates of disaggregation during transport. It follows that current models regard ash aggregation as irrevocable and may therefore overestimate aggregation-enhanced sedimentation. In this experimental study, we use industrial granulation techniques to artificially produce aggregates. We subject these to impact tests and evaluate their resistance to break-up processes. We find a dependence of aggregate stability on primary particle size distribution and solid particle binder concentration. We posit that our findings could be combined with eruption source parameters and implemented in future tephra dispersal models.

On the 26th April 1979, La Soufrière St. Vincent volcano (West Indies) erupted producing a tephra fallout that blanketed the main island and the neighboring Bequia Island, located southwards. Using deposit measurements and the available observations reported in Brazier et al. (1982), we estimated the optimal Eruption Source Parameters, such as the Mass Eruption Rate (MER), the Total Erupted Mass (TEM) and the Total Grain-Size Distribution (TGSD) by means of a computational inversion method. Tephra transport and deposition were simulated using the 3D Eulerian model FALL3D. The field-based TGSD reconstructed by Brazier et al. (1982) shows a bi-modal pattern having a coarse and a fine population with modes around 0.5 and 0.06mm, respectively. A significant amount of aggregates was observed during the eruption. To quantify the relevance of aggregation processes on the bulk tephra deposit, we performed a comparative study in which we accounted for aggregation using three different schemes, computing ash aggregation within the plume under wet conditions, i.e. considering both the effects of air moisture and magmatic water, consistently with the eruptive phreatomagmatic eruption features. The sensitivity to the driving meteorological model (WRF/ARW) was also investigated by considering two different spatial resolutions (5 and 1km) and model output frequencies. Results show that, for such short-lived explosive eruptions, high-resolution meteorological data are critical. Optimal results best-fitting all available observations indicate a column height of ~12km above the vent, a MER of ~7.8×106kg/s which, for an eruption duration of 370s, gives a TEM of ~2.8×109kg. The optimal aggregate mean diameter obtained is 1.5Φ with a density of 350kg/m3, contributing to ~22% of the deposit mass.

(1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Geophysics, Bologna, Italy (matthieu.poret@ingv.it; antonio.costa@ingv.it), (2) University of Bologna, Geophysics department, Bologna, Italy, (3) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma, Roma, Italy (stefano.corradini@ingv.it; luca.merucci@ingv.it), (4) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy (daniele.andronico@ingv.it; antonio.cristaldi@ingv.it), (5) Department of Civil Protection, Presidency of the Councils of Ministers, Roma, Italy (gianfranco.vulpiani@protezionecivile.it)

Three 2-D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) transects, up to 6.36 km long, were obtained across the Paganica-San Demetrio Basin, bounded by the 2009 L'Aquila Mw 6.1 normal-faulting earthquake causative fault (central Italy). The investigations allowed defining for the first time the shallow subsurface basin structure. The resistivity images, and their geological interpretation, show a dissected Mesozoic-Tertiary substratum buried under continental infill of mainly Quaternary age due to the long-term activity of the Paganica-San Demetrio normal faults system (PSDFS), ruling the most recent deformational phase. Our results indicate that the basin bottom deepens up to 600 m moving to the south, with the continental infill largely exceeding the known thickness of the Quaternary sequence. The causes of this increasing thickness can be: (1) the onset of the continental deposition in the southern sector took place before the Quaternary, (2) there was an early stage of the basin development driven by different fault systems that produced a depocentre in the southern sector not related to the present-day basin shape, or (3) the fault system slip rate in the southern sector was faster than in the northern sector. We were able to gain sights into the long-term PSDFS behaviour and evolution, by comparing throw rates at different timescales and discriminating the splays that lead deformation. Some fault splays exhibit large cumulative throws (>300 m) in coincidence with large displacement of the continental deposits sequence (>100 m), thus testifying a general persistence in time of their activity as leading splays of the fault system. We evaluate the long-term (3–2.5 Myr) cumulative and Quaternary throw rates of most of the leading splays to be 0.08–0.17 mm yr−1, indicating a substantial stability of the faults activity. Among them, an individual leading fault splay extends from Paganica to San Demetrio ne’ Vestini as a result of a post-Early Pleistocene linkage of two smaller splays. This 15 km long fault splay can explain the Holocene surface ruptures observed to be larger than those occurred during the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, such as revealed by palaeoseismological investigations. Finally, the architecture of the basin at depth suggests that the PSDFS can also rupture a longer structure at the surface, allowing earthquakes larger than M 6.5, besides rupturing only small sections, as it occurred in 2009.