This paper aims to develop a framework for assessing cross-sectoral water demand over a long-term planning horizon using a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for the energy sector and integrating it with the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This framework spatially associates surface and ground water supply resources with sectoral water demand between 2005 and 2050. The developed framework uses a hybrid top-down and bottom-up approach for linking water use in the municipal, commercial, oil and gas, power, industrial, and agriculture sectors with their water sources. Annual water use associated with future changes in population, oil sands production (in situ and surface mining), power generation fuels and technologies, and agricultural and livestock population is quantified. A case study for Alberta was conducted. Eleven future scenarios were evaluated, and model results show that the water demand might increase by 11-25% from the 2020 demand by 2050. The developed framework can be used to provide insights into patterns of water demand and supply for the energy sector as well as other sectors in different scenarios and can be integrated with assessments of GHG emissions, which can aid in decision-making at the provincial and national levels. This framework can be used for other jurisdictions. Cet article vise & agrave; d & eacute;velopper un cadre pour & eacute;valuer la demande en eau intersectorielle sur un horizon de planification & agrave; long terme en utilisant un mod & egrave;le d'& Eacute;valuation et de Planification de l'Eau (WEAP) pour le secteur de l'& eacute;nergie et en l'int & eacute;grant avec l'& eacute;valuation des & eacute;missions de gaz & agrave; effet de serre (GES). Ce cadre associe spatialement les ressources d'approvisionnement en eau de surface et souterraine avec la demande en eau sectorielle entre 2005 et 2050. Le cadre d & eacute;velopp & eacute; utilise une approche hybride descendante et ascendante pour lier l'utilisation de l'eau dans les secteurs municipal, commercial, p & eacute;trolier et gazier, & eacute;lectrique, industriel et agricole avec leurs sources d'eau. L'utilisation annuelle de l'eau associ & eacute;e aux changements futurs dans la population, la production de sables bitumineux (in situ et extraction & agrave; ciel ouvert), les carburants et technologies de g & eacute;n & eacute;ration d'& eacute;lectricit & eacute;, ainsi que la population agricole et d'& eacute;levage est quantifi & eacute;e. Une & eacute;tude de cas pour la province canadienne riche en & eacute;nergie de l'Alberta a & eacute;t & eacute; men & eacute;e. Onze sc & eacute;narios futurs ont & eacute;t & eacute; & eacute;valu & eacute;s, et les r & eacute;sultats du mod & egrave;le montrent que la demande en eau pourrait augmenter de 11 & agrave; 25% par rapport & agrave; la demande de 2020 d'ici 2050. Le cadre d & eacute;velopp & eacute; peut & ecirc;tre utilis & eacute; pour fournir des aper & ccedil;us sur les mod & egrave;les de demande et d'offre en eau pour le secteur de l'& eacute;nergie ainsi que pour d'autres secteurs dans diff & eacute;rents sc & eacute;narios et peut & ecirc;tre int & eacute;gr & eacute; avec des & eacute;valuations des & eacute;missions de GES, ce qui peut aider & agrave; la prise de d & eacute;cision aux niveaux provincial et national. Il s'agit d'un cadre unique qui peut & ecirc;tre utilis & eacute; globalement.

Sub-Saharan Africa has long been beset with food insecurity and energy poverty. Expanding irrigated agriculture can help boost food production in the region, but this requires energy for accessing water, especially in groundwater-fed irrigation. This paper compared economic performance of groundwater pumping for irrigation under two energy solutions: solar photovoltaic (PV) and diesel fuel. We estimated the life-cycle costs of the power units of two pumping systems for a range of crop and irrigation method scenarios and mapped their relative cost-effectiveness over cropland in sub-Saharan Africa. As a renewable and clean energy source, solar energy has attracted much attention and there is keen interest in investing in solar PV to support the development of irrigated agriculture. Results of this study provide insights into the prospects of promoting solar irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa.

Despite the numerous exemplary efforts taking place to develop sustainable systems of power generation globally, coal will remain an essential and significant part of Bangladesh & apos;s energy generation. The Government of Bangladesh needs to provide a more reliable and transparent power market for citizens to meet Bangladesh & apos;s rising energy demand. Consequently, various coal-based mega projects were undertaken by the Bangladesh government to ensure an affordable and reliable power supply. Half of the targeted electricity was designated to be produced from imported coal. Hence, the development strategy or the reformation of policy in the energy sector may contribute to the current shortcomings in policy approach including inadequate energy infrastructure, regulation and co-ordination issues. This review focuses on the increasing demand for coal, supply issues, socio-environmental requirements and significant coal import to encourage realistic advancement of the energy sector in Bangladesh. Moreover, forecasting the requirement of coal for mega power projects from 2021 to 2041 was highlighted. The water resource supply for coal-based power plants and approaches for reducing CO2 and other emissions were also addressed. Finally, initiatives for fulfilling Sustainable Development Goals in the Bangladesh energy sector were also discussed in this review.

The aim of this paper is to review and evaluate models used to assess the market penetration of energy technologies. While there are different models and tools, choosing the appropriate approach for a particular application is very challenging. In this paper, each model is reviewed and discussed extensively and a hierarchy diagram is developed to help choose a model. Market penetration models based on subjective estimation and market survey could be individual-dependent and not reliable for long-term forecasts. Cost estimation, diffusion, and econometric models offer more reliable results both for short- and long-term forecasts. Based on the review, a new combined model was developed and applied to a case study. The combined use of different market penetration models offers more accurate and robust results, as demonstrated in the case study.

A study project undertaken for developing a web-based electricity cost model (WECM) is presented in this paper. The project targets to complete by five years that includes development of a prototype application, followed by a pilot phase with various cost analysis of real-life data and finally a nation-wide implementation of the model in the power sector of Bangladesh. The overall objectives of this study project are: (i) design and develop a well-structured, scalable database and a web application (ii) capacity building in Web and mobile app development and (iii) integrate machine learning based analytics using real-life data. This paper discusses the detailed methodology used for the web application development and capacity building. In addition, the first prototype application developed, and future scope are also presented. Finally, the expected outcome of this ongoing study and benefit of WECM are discussed. The proposed model for migrating the operation of one of the vital sectors i.e. the energy sector in Bangladesh to cloud is a bold step towards "Digital Bangladesh". Upon successful completion of this study project, it is expected that about 90% of the energy sector's data can be automatically captured and reported for management and operation using WECM.

This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative.

The main objective of this study is to assess energy-use reduction strategies in extraction and upgrading of oil sands for greenhouse gas mitigation in Canada's oil sands sector. A bottom-up integrated resource-planning model for oil sands extraction and upgrading processes was developed. The model is a novel application of an energy accounting-based framework and accurately simulates energy demand and supply in the oil sands from 2007 to 2050. Thirty energy-use reduction scenarios were evaluated covering in situ extraction, surface mining, and bitumen upgrading processes. The energy savings, greenhouse gas emission mitigation, and costs associated with each scenario were determined with the model. Implementing in situ energy-use reduction measures resulted in the highest single measure greenhouse gas mitigation potential of 86 million tonnes CO(2)e at a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost of -$91/tonne of CO(2)e by 2050. For the scenarios in surface mining and bitumen upgrading, the highest single measure greenhouse gas mitigation potentials are 17 and 16 million tonnes CO(2)e by 2050 at marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs of -$65/tonne of CO(2)e and -$21/tonne of CO(2)e, respectively. All strategies result in a negative $/tonne of CO(2)e cost, indicating a net benefit for investing in the strategies. If the strategies are implemented together, there is an ultimate potential to reduce sector-wide cumulative energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the oil sands by 8% and 7%, respectively, by 2050. Decision-makers at company or government levels can use these results to support both environmental and cost-saving initiatives. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Since 2007, large and unexpected declines in generation costs for renewable energy systems, particularly solar but also wind, combined with policy measures designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions, have created a paradigm shift in energy systems. Variable renewable energy now dominates total investment in electricity power generation systems. This dominance of variable renewable energy in investment has thrust the systems integration task of matching electricity supply with demand to center stage, presenting new challenges for energy policy and planning as well as for the institutional organization of power systems. Despite these challenges, there is ample reason to believe that variable renewables will attain very high levels of penetration into energy systems, particularly in regions well endowed with solar and wind potential. Similar to their success with mobile phone telephony, many developing countries have a significant opportunity to leapfrog directly to more advanced energy technologies that are low cost, reliable, environmentally more benign, and well suited to serving dispersed rural populations.

Despite multiple economic, environmental and health benefits of biogas and governmental support to scale up biogas technologies, the rate of biogas adoption has been slow in many developing countries. Although technical barriers in biogas technologies have been mostly addressed, there are persisting gaps in knowledge about the role of administrative (regulatory) and market-based policy instruments in the waste-to-energy value chain for facilitating biogas adoption. Therefore, using the case of Sri Lanka, this study investigates policy instruments along the waste-to-energy value chain that affect biogas technology adoption. Additionally, a consistent analytical framework is developed for simultaneously assessing technical and economic potentials as well as environmental impacts of biogas adoption at large scales. Quantitative assessments are complemented with qualitative assessments including key expert interviews. The findings indicate that biogas energy potential from organic waste recycling is 29-42 PJ which accounts for 16-23% of the household energy demand. Biogas technology adoptions also offset 3.9-4.8 million tons of CO2 equivalent gases (or 8.6-10.8% of nationwide GHG emissions). Despite considerable technical potential and positive environmental externalities, biogas adoptions in Sri Lanka are mainly occurring through administrative enforcement rather than market-based incentives. The ways and impacts of introducing market-based instruments to increase the investment attractiveness of the biogas technology are discussed.

This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.

This study assesses the economywide impact of promoting renewable power generation by targeting a 50 percent share of renewables in energy production by 2040. Using a novel approach by linking a bottom-up energy model with a top-down economywide model, we found that increasing the share of renewables in the power sector could slightly slow down the industrialization process and reduce economic growth. Implementing this policy, however, would allow the country to reduce carbon emissions by 65 million tons in 2040 and improve energy security. The health co-benefit is estimated to reach up to 324 billion Philippine pesos (PHP), which levels the welfare loss. Receiving foreign financial inflow as a compensation for reducing carbon emissions could drive the economy into Dutch disease, shifting more economic activities into the nontradable sector. Increasing total investment demand in the future as a policy response could potentially mitigate this effect and improve economic welfare by 155 billion PHP.

Standalone solar photovoltaic systems are increasingly being distributed in Ethiopia, but these systems are sub-optimal due to their intermittent power supply. A hybrid system that integrates and optimizes across solar photovoltaic and complementary energy sources, such as wind and diesel generation, can improve reliability, and reduce the unit cost of power production. This study assesses the potential of a hybrid system to electrify a remote rural village in Ethiopia. The Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Electric Renewables model is used to assess primary data, develop a load profile and identify the optimal least-cost system option for the village. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effect of variations in solar radiation, wind speed, and diesel price on optimal system configurations. The results show that a hybrid system with a combination of photovoltaic array, wind turbine, battery and diesel generator is the best option from an economic point of view. To meet the village's daily peak demand of 19.6 kW, energy generation cost is estimated at 0.207 dollars per kilowatt hour and net present cost at 82,734 dollars. The optimal system allows for a reduction of 37.3 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year compared with diesel-only electricity generation. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Pakistan is facing electricity crises owing to lack of integrated energy planning, reliance on imported fuels for power generation, and poor governance. This situation has challenged governments for over a decade to address these crises. However, despite various conformist planning and policy initiatives, the balance between demand and supply of electricity is yet to be achieved. In this study, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan's LEAP modeling framework for the period 2015-2050. Following demand forecast, four supply side scenarios; Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) are enacted considering resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO2 emissions. The model results estimate the demand forecast of 1706.3 TWh in 2050, at an annual average growth rate of 8.35%, which is 19 times higher than the base year demand. On the supply side, RET scenario, although capital intensive earlier in the modeling period, is found to be the sustainable electricity generation path followed by EEC scenario with the lower demand of 1373.2 TWh and minimum Net Present Value (NPV) at an aggregate discount rate of 6%. Conclusion section of the paper provides the recommendations devised from this study results. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The energy sector of Ethiopia continues to largely rely on traditional biomass energy due to limited access to modern energy sources to meet growing demand. Long-term energy demand forecasting is essential to guide the country's plans to expand the energy supply system. This study provides a general overview of Ethiopia's current energy demand and forecasts sector-wise energy demand out to 2030 for alternative policy scenarios using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The reference scenario assumes a continuation of recent energy consumption trends and takes account of current energy and economic dynamics. Three alternative scenarios on improved cookstoves, efficient lighting, and universal electrification scenario were identified as key priorities of the government of Ethiopia and modeled. Results from the model can assist energy planners in ensuring that the country's capacity for supply meets projected growth in demand for energy. They also shed light on the tradeoffs implicit in alternative policy priorities and investments in terms of economic development and environmental sustainability. Most importantly, the results suggest that alternative investments can conserve energy, improve environmental sustainability, enhance energy equity and improve the country's development indicators.

This study assesses greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options for the agriculture sector. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model was used to develop a framework to assess future trends in energy demand and associated GHG emissions for the agriculture sector and to assess various GHG mitigation options associated with energy consumption. A business-as-usual (reference) scenario and 32 GHG mitigation scenarios were developed for the years 2009-2050 using the LEAP model. A case study for Alberta, Canada, was conducted. In the model, GHG mitigation scenarios were developed for the energy demand side (e.g., farm machines, farm transportation, lighting, and ventilation) based on efficiency improvements and the use of renewable energy. The mitigation scenarios were divided into two planning horizons based on technology penetration: slow penetration (2009-2050) and fast penetration (2009-2030). For each planning horizon, 16 scenarios were assessed. Of all farm machines, efficient diesel tractors have the highest GHG mitigation potential: 12.35 ALT of CO2 equivalent by 2050 and 4.7 MT of CO2 equivalent by 2030. In addition, GHG abatement cost curves show that biodiesel tractors and efficient diesel tractors have the highest GHG mitigation potential, with attractive abatement costs of -$62 and -$11 tonne(-1) of CO2 mitigated by 2050, respectively.

This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply and low-carbon strategies for the Philippine power sector from 2014 to 2040 using TIMES model. It examines the potential contribution of renewable energy to diversify the Philippine energy supply-mix to meet future electricity demands. The reference scenario compares the impact of four alternative policy goals: (1) carbon tax, (2) targeted renewable-based power generation, (3) limited coal share in supply-mix, and (4) renewables subsidy. The reference scenario shows a significant increase of the share of coal-based power generation and import dependency of fossil-fuel increases from 227 PJ in 2016 to 1073 PJ in 2040. The model results for the alternative policy scenarios show a large potential for renewable energy-based power generation. The alternative policy options show a significant decrease of import dependency in the energy supply mix for power generation. Most alternative policy scenarios project a higher total system cost, with the exception of the subsidy scenario. System cost increases only 2.6% in the renewables target scenario relative to the reference scenario. However, long-term benefits from investing in the alternative policy options would need to be considered, including diversification of energy supply-mix, improved energy security, and progress toward a low-carbon society. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The purpose of this review was to discuss challenges regarding model use in water energy food nexus analysis.

The aim of this research is to model the market penetration of energy efficient appliances in the residential sector. The analysis focuses on six major appliances refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, and ranges to forecast their market penetration and market share during the years 2012 -2050. Models were developed for each category using 22 years of historical data related to population, household income, immigration, and appliance price. These variables were selected based on the statistical tests of twelve macroeconomic variables. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were analyzed based on the related capital costs, operating costs, lifetime, and incentive. The results show that in Alberta the market penetration growth rate of dishwashers is higher than that of all other appliances, with a projected 30.52% increase between 2012 and 2050. The modeling results also indicate that the average annual energy consumption by refrigerators will decrease from 560.9 kWh in 2012 to 460.8 kWh in 2050, and this decrease indicates an annual energy efficiency improvement of 0.47%. In addition, the effect of an incentive on adopting high energy efficiency appliances and ultimately on energy efficiency improvement in Alberta is more effective for dishwashers and clothes washers. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio economic development in a society depends on its energy consumption level. Various studies findings on energy indicate that there is a gap between current energy consumption and supply levels. Conventional primary energy reserves will not be able to meet the projected energy demand. So, the present energy system is not sustainable. Alternative resources need to be integrated in the energy supply-mix to meet the expected future energy demand. Fossil-fuel reserve is limited and the use of these fuels has a negative impact on the environment. Holding energy in a secure level and global climate at a safe level requires long term strategy to integrate renewable energy resources/technologies in energy supply-mix to aim of energy sustainability. A sustainable energy system development approach is fundamental and encompasses various aspects such as energy security objectives, environmental impacts, and economic development. The feasibility of a sustainable energy system can be analyzed applying energy models. Energy models are used to help in energy planning, and to assess alternative national/regional energy policies and integration of clean technologies. This paper presents a design concept of a sustainable energy system and reviews its components. This paper reviews different energy models and presents application of some energy optimization models with consideration of innovated clean technologies in the energy supplymix in order to achieve a sustainable energy system for a society. Key words–Sustainable energy; energy models, renewable energy technologies; climate change; low-carbon society