This paper aims to synthesize the perceptions of early career specialists regarding trends in dry bulk shipping flows to 2050, the ship type which generates the second highest total volume of carbon emissions. Specialists' insights have implications for formulating polices to manage global trade and shipping emissions. Established Delphi survey techniques achieved consensus in a novel long-term industrial context amongst international panelists with long-term industrial commitment, highlighting trends in drivers including Arctic ice melt, canal upgrades, piracy and mode splits. Globally, expected doubling of raw materials shipments to Western economies and quadrupling elsewhere will be partially offset by specialists' perceptions of shorter hauls. Moderate annual expected tonnage growth globally compares with rapid annual growth in coal shipments, although more localized and multi-sourcing will shorten global coal hauls. After 2030, ocean routing is expected to slightly shorten global hauls. Climate change brings both Arctic ice melt with shorter expected average hauls from Northeast Asia to Western Europe and longer hauls elsewhere as more droughts and failed states force ship re-routing to avoid piracy. Canal upgrades will offer shorter average hauls. Within the UK rising expected demand for biofuels and intolerance of fossil fuels will reduce shipping demand, inviting investigation of a systems approach to planning.

This paper reviews the work done at the early concept and preliminary design stages for an innovative new class of short sea vessel. This work is part of a new EU-funded project CREATE3S that will develop new ship design concepts aimed at improving the efficiency of short sea shipping. CREATE3S aims to develop a new generation of short sea vessels utilising advanced design and manufacturing techniques, enabling Europe to strengthen its shipping and shipbuilding competitiveness. With trade between European countries increasing rapidly year on year, great demands are being made on Europe’s transport infrastructure. The only freight transport mode that has virtually unlimited potential for expansion, and which is considered environmentally friendly, is coastal shipping, hence the current EU focus on encouraging more cargo to move by water. However, the increasing volumes of cargo being shipped over relatively short distances require major rethinking on the part of shipping companies and ports. More or larger ships are required and for them to be efficient, faster cargo handling concepts are needed to ensure that port turnaround time does not exceed sailing time. The CREATE3S concept envisages a vessel consisting of two principal modules: a ship hull module and one or more large cargo modules. The CREATE3S concept is intended to be equally applicable to container, dry bulk and liquid cargoes. When the vessel arrives in port, it will be possible to quickly separate the cargo modules from the ship section, placing them on the quay. The ship module is then coupled with other cargo modules for the return voyage. The cargo units can then be unloaded and made ready for the next vessel call. This approach will combine the ability for a ‘standard ship design’ to be tuned to very different trades and commodities whilst using advanced construction techniques. The most revolutionary feature of the CREATE3S concept is the potential to transfer the complete cargo load in just one move. However, for certain vessel applications, it is possible that there may be more than one cargo module: more than one commodity may be moving on the same vessel or it may even be practical to mix bulk and container modules on the same sailing. The key feature remains that the individual cargo unit being discharged in one move will be far bigger than today where the maximum size unit is typically a 45ft container or 20ft ISO tank. Safety and sustainability are investigated and accommodated through a comprehensive risk assessment and integration of solutions that facilitate reduced energy consumption, emissions and waste. The new generation vessels will be assessed on their operational environmental and economic performance, in relation to total cost of ownership (including production, operation and end of life cost) utilising advanced design and simulation techniques.

This paper presents a robust methodology for the investigation of economic and environmental costs within a marine system. It describes the methods used to establish system life-cycle costs, and compares them with their environmental effects to establish the cost-benefit of reducing environmental hazards (Landamore et al. 2006: Life Cycle and Cost Benefit Analysis of Selected Technologies for Sustainable Inland Boating, Newcastle University, January). The case study is a small inland charter boat, operating on the Norfolk Broads, with varying options for powering, hull material, and graywater (GW) treatment. The principles described in this paper can be used to guide the efficient, cost-effective design of any system along sustainable principles. Environmental life-cycle analysis is performed, and the economic cost of each alternative is established. The results presented in the paper show that the majority of systems are cost effective for reducing environmental impact. In addition, a number of systems can be implemented without extra cost, though it is demonstrated that the high cost of the most environmentally effective technologies makes them an inefficient use of resources.