The global financial crisis of 1997-98 was neither the first of its kind nor the last. But this time, even the virtuous were not immune. The stricken countries desperately need a plan for protection in the future. The IMF is too strapped and its program too flawed to serve as an effective international lender of last resort. Instead, emerging markets must learn to inoculate themselves against future currency attacks by increasing liquidity, such as foreign currency reserves, so they can fight back the powerful forces of market speculation on their own. While self-help is expensive, it is far less painful than the turmoil of currency crises. Emerging markets must take their fate into their own hands.

This article discusses the process of replacing the existing pay-as-you-go Social Security program of Old Age and Survivors Insurance in the United States with a prefunded program based on mandatory individual accounts. After discussing the basic reasons for favoring the prefunding of Social Security old-age pensions (and Medicare as well) and the nature of a feasible transition from the existing pay-as-you-go system I will explain why I now favor using a system of individual accounts rather than a single government account. I will then discuss the two major issues that are frequently raised as objections to a prefunded system based on individual accounts: the riskiness of investing in stocks and bonds and the distributional effects of shifting from pay-as-you-go to individual accounts. I will conclude by discussing the effect that such a system would have on national saving and capital accumulation. (EXCERPT)

The immediate effects of emu would be to replace the individual national currencies of the participating countries in 2002 with a single currency, the euro, and to shift responsibility for monetary policy from the national central banks to a new European Central Bank (ecb). But the more fundamental long-term effect of adopting a single currency would be the creation of a political union, a European federal state with responsibility for a Europe-wide foreign and security policy as well as for what are now domestic economic and social policies. While the individual governments and key political figures differ in their reasons for wanting a political union, there is no doubt that the real rationale for emu is political and not economic. Indeed, the adverse economic effects of a single currency on unemployment and inflation would outweigh any gains from facilitating trade and capital flows among the emu members.1 The 1992 Maastricht Treaty that created the emu calls explicitly for the evolution to a future political union. But even without that

Analyzed data from 154 school-age children and their mothers to examine the relations between stress, perceived competence and contingency, and behavior symptoms. Analyses focused on the relative merits of unidimensional vs multidimensional measures of control in predicting symptoms. The stress of undesirable life events and behavior symptoms were related in the expected direction. Multiple regression models with R2 ranging from .11 to .14 (all ps less than .0002) included significant main effects for stress, competence, and control. Analyses supported the relative superiority of the multidimensional measure of control. Models containing main effects and interaction terms were of equivalent magnitudes in accounting for variance in symptom scores. Findings support the idea of perceived control as a moderator of the stress-illness relation and are consistent with earlier suggestions that simple main effects models may be the most useful in examining these relations.

A child's temperament and the stressful life events he or she experiences influence a child's health. Efforts to understand stress and illness processes have suggested that a range of sociodemographic andpsychosocial variables influence the degree to which a child uses medical services. In this sample of 140 families in a health maintenance organization, medical utilization by school-age children was related to age, family size, stress, and temperament. Fewer relationships were evident in bivariate correlational analyses than in multiple regression analyses which allowed for simultaneous consideration of the variables. Two highly statistically significant multiple regression models each accounted for 20% of the variance in medical utilization over a 4-yearperiod. Evidence for independent main effects as well as mediating or interacting effects of stress and temperament dimensions of mood and distractibility was generated. health care providers and health policy planners efforts can be informed by research which increasingly articulates the relationships among variables influencing the use of medical services.

Data on 158 children, six and nine years old, are analyzed for the relationship between stress and behavior. Undesirable life events and intense "hassles" were particularly correlated with behavioral symptoms. Statistically, temperament appears to moderate this influence but, lacking appreciable variance of symptoms in the models including these interaction effects, the more parsimonious main-effects concept may be more useful.

The Bay Area Air Pollution Control District of California (US of A) is a regional agency enforcing emission limits from stationary sources within a 6,000 square mile area. Monitoring stations established base line concentrations and trends relative to control effectiveness. Air quality modeling efforts are explained including the use of a climatological model and summary descriptions of dispersion models on regional and local scales and statistical modeling serving to combine the climatological model output with dispersion model output which is necessary for planning and enforcement applications.

Extensive chemical analysis of suspended particulate was undertaken by the Bay Area Air Pollution Control District, so that more meaningful interpretation of total mass loading data could be made and more serious problem areas detected. From high-volume samples taken with cellulose paper as the collection medium, analyses were performed for the five heavy metals and nitrate, sulfate, chloride, silicon, and total organics (loss on ignition at 550°C). Two constituents considered primarily nonanthropogenic, silicate and chloride, were evaluated from eight sampling sites. The data were derived from over 600 individual samples, one sample per week per site. The locations have diverse geographical backgrounds, although they lie in a common air basin. For example, a 21 month average for chlorides ranged from 4.2 µ/m3 at San Francisco to 1.7 µg/m3 at Livermorè some 40 miles inland. Inversely, the total silicates increased from 5.7 µg/m3 at San Francisco to 22.6 µg/m3 at Livermore. The silicate values peak strongly in the dry season, with individual 24 hr silicate component values greater than 60 µg/m3 at inland stations. Wind-generated dust from the bare hills of the Coast Range is the most probable source. Since the silicates and chlorides are primarily non-anthropogenic, they were excluded from the TSP values to give a total anthropogenic suspended particulate (TASP). The TASP values for the Bay Area show a geographic distribution in much closer conformity to visibility reduction and citizen complaint than do TSP values.

A manual procedure Is outlined which utilizes an alkaline permanganate sampling train for the simultaneous collection of nitrogen and sulfur oxides from stationary sources. Dependent on anticipated concentrations, samples of up to an hour duration may be taken. Analysis of the collected NOx and SOx is straightforward, tailored for needed accuracy and minimum employment time. For oxides of nitrogen, the formed nitrites of collection are converted to nitrates. The total nitrate is then reduced to nitrite, diazotized and coupled to form a red dye. This is all accomplished with a commercially available "ready-made" reagent. The oxides of sulfur are determined by the turbidimetric barium sulfate procedure. Data are shown comparing the proposed method from numerous types of emission sources, both with accepted methods and newer instrumental techniques. The ability to sample simultaneously for NOx and SOx has many advantages, i.e., power plants, boilers, and other sources where both gases are of interest for compliance and/or source Inventory purposes.

The state of our knowledge on the necessary degree of stationary source organic emission control required to assist in meeting the goal of the Federal Oxidant Standard can be summarized as being intimately tied in with the larger problem of mobile source organic emission control. A satisfactory resolution of the problem will come only when the dynamics of atmospheric oxidant formation is more fully understood. However, it must be assumed that the control of reactive organic compounds, to the extent that they participate in these reactions, is directionally correct. 27 references, 5 tables.

A long-term manual sampling procedure for nitrogen dioxide is required to measure compliance with the recently adopted EPA ambient air quality standard for this substance. The method recommended by EPA has proven to be inadequate. This paper discusses a manual procedure involving absorption of NO2 in a triethanolamine solution or a triethanolamine impregnated molecular sieve surface. Absorption efficiencies of over 95% are attained, using either the liquid or solid absorbers. The NO2 (gas) to NO2 (ion) factor was found to be 0.85, evaluated against the Saltzman factor of 0.72. Field data as well as controlled laboratory trials indicate the method is comparable to continuous air monitoring instrumentation, utilizing the modified Saltzman reagent. Nitric oxide in concentrations as high as 0.6 ppm for 24 hr gave no interference. The presence of sulfur dioxide causes slightly lower results with the solid absorber, but has no effect on the liquid absorber at concentrations normally encountered in ambient air. This new absorbing reagent can be used for short duration sampling, as well as extended sampling times for up to 4 days.

The tape samplers using lead acetate impregnated paper tapes for continuous hydrogen sulfide sampling are subject to a number of errors which can throw considerable doubt on the accuracy of H2S concentrations being measured. Some of the errors have been minimized with a change in the humidification system and a reduction of the lamp intensity in the optical system.

Changes in contaminant levels at monitoring stations do not necessarily represent changes in emission levels, since variations in meteorological parameters determine the transport and diffusion of contaminants between sources and receptors. To estimate annual changes in emission levels, and thus of control program effectiveness, the meteorological stratification of data was employed to provide “comparable days.” For San Francisco Bay Area photochemical oxidant data, simple criteria based on maximum temperature and on height of inversion base were selected. Temperature provided a readily available integrated index of solar energy input and of ventilation, while the inversion data added a vertical dilution factor. An earlier study, employing only the temperature criteria, showed that oxidant levels on comparable warm days had nearly doubled from 1954 through 1962. The current study of oxidant data for 1962 through 1969 shows a gradual rise through 1965, and a sharp reversal in 1966, when for the first time a simultaneous decrease was noted at each benchmark station. Data through 1969 show that average oxidant levels have been maintained at this 25% lower plateau, with minor fluctuations at individual stations. The general improvement in air quality since 1965 is attributed to the reduction of reactive organics emitted from stationary and automotive sources.