A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that adjustments on the office market are not symmetric. The theoretical framework provides various justifications for the presence of frictions, especially in the case of rent and vacancy rate. In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of rent and vacancy rate to the demand and supply shocks in the nine major office markets in Poland. In the course of the study we seek answers to two research questions. First, we investigate if the direction (positive or negative) as well as type (demand or supply) of the shocks produce asymmetry in the adjustments of vacancy rate and rent. Secondly, we examine if market conditions and distinction between the long-term and short-term perspective can generate asymmetry in vacancy rate and rent responses to the shocks.We use quarterly time series starting in 2011 / 2018 in the case of mature markets and markets in the early stage of development, respectively. Our data end in the end/mid- of 2024. In the study, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied. The paper contributes to the discussion regarding nonlinear adjustments on the office markets in Central and Eastern Europe.

The goal of the paper is to assess the social implications of an ineffective legal intervention, which consists of introducing ownership restrictions concerning residential real estate located in the vicinity of airports. The paper evaluates Polish law in the context of the legislator's environmental aims and compares current regulations in Poland with solutions adopted in English law and American jurisdictions. The social and economic impact of ineffective legal intervention is calculated for the KTW airport case study with the use of information about the structure and value of filed and awarded claims for damages. With the use of this data, in the empirical part of the paper, we evaluate the factual transaction costs of public intervention for that airport, as well as ones which would occur if, instead of the Polish model, the American and the English models of compensation were applied. This allows us to explain the socio-economic consequences of adopting a given solution as well as to assess whether it fulfils desirable objectives. It also provides an opportunity to assess the models in the context of devising legally and economically justified compensation for landowners near airports affected by aircraft noise. The paper narrows the gap in the legal and economic knowledge related to the types and implications of ownership restrictions introduced in the vicinity of airports.

The stability of municipal revenues is crucial for long-term socio-economic planning at the city level. This paper presents the impact of changes in legal regulations mandating the transformation of perpetual usufruct into ownership on preferential terms. Using micro-level information on transactions and plots handed over in perpetual usufruct for single-family housing, we determined potential losses in the City of Poznan caused by the new regulations. The research uses mass appraisal models to assess the fees related to the land value of properties affected by the legal transformation, scenario analysis, and Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the consequences of the change in the regulation in the long run. The simulation results indicate that the municipalities are deprived of relatively stable revenues after the reform. In Poznan, we assess that the net present value of revenue losses ranged from -327.3 mln PLN to -419.6 mln PLN (74.6 % to 92.9 % reduction of the baseline revenues, respectively). Incorporating provisions allowing the perpetual usufruct of developed land to be converted to housing is less financially beneficial for municipalities than for perpetual usufruct holders. Additionally, it significantly manages municipal strategic control of local development within the city and reduces municipal land resources. The research attempts to narrow the gap in knowledge about the role of land leases in municipal revenues.

This study investigates the impact of telecommunication infrastructure on residential property prices in Poland. This study contributes to the discussion of economic externalities related to new public infrastructure within the urban landscape. We use hedonic regression, matching techniques, and a difference-in-differences estimator to assess the impact of base transceiver stations on apartment prices in Warsaw, the capital of Poland, which covered market data on the sales of residential premises located in Miasteczko Wilanów estate in Warsaw from 2016 to 2021. In the analysed period, 1,825 residential sales were recorded and used for econometric modelling. The results do not confirm the influence of the vicinity of the wireless communication technology infrastructure on residential real estate prices in the studied local market. In particular, we did not observe a detrimental effect of cell phone towers on housing prices. Additionally, we investigate whether residential sale prices in proximity to BTS changed significantly after the introduction of the 5G standard. This particular issue has not been addressed in the economic literature. We found that the sale prices of apartments located in Warsaw were not statistically affected by the introduction of a fifth-generation technology standard for broadband cellular networks. Our research contributes to a better understanding of stigmatisation effects related to telecommunication infrastructure, and in particular, the links between the presence of cell phone towers and residential property values in the neighbourhood. The results may be of interest to all potential agents involved in neighbourhood conflicts arising from investments in cell phone towers and the development of new communication infrastructure in urban landscapes. The proximity of the base transceiver stations does not significantly affect the transaction prices. The introduction of 5G technology did not have a significant effect on residential property prices near cell phone towers. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the complex interplay between urban development, community conflicts, and housing prices.

In recent years, a lot of empirical effort has been made to search for potential nonlinear responses of house prices to various demand and supply factors. This paper examines Poland's heterogeneous regional housing market reactions to key economic variables from 2000 to 2022. The study raises two research questions related to the asymmetric adjustment of housing markets to selected demand and supply shocks.Firstly, we ask whether the house price adjustments to negative shocks are relatively minor (for example, during an economic downturn) when compared to positive shocks (prevalent in booming markets), mainly due to the loss aversion behavior theory and nominal rigidity of house prices. In particular, we test the hypothesis that house prices react more to positive impulses from supply and demand than negative ones.Secondly, we investigate whether market reactions are similar for large and small metropolitan markets. The second hypothesis posits that metropolitan housing markets adjust asymmetrically to demand and supply shocks based on the city size (population and housing stock in a given city).The study uses a nonlinear ARDL model to test the research hypotheses empirically. This paper provides new insights into the nonlinear reactions of house prices to exogenous shocks and adds to the limited empirical evidence from less developed economies.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has become a global issue and caused a major refugee crisis in Europe. The displacement of millions of people from Ukraine, who entered neighbouring countries, attributed to a housing demand shock in host cities and subsequent increases in rents and prices.The article investigates the housing market reaction in Poland's five largest cities caused by the arrival of refugees from Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. We use a difference-in-difference quasi-experimental scenario to test whether exposure to mass refugee inflow translates to housing market dynamics.According to our findings, an increase in a city population of 1 pp caused by the inflow of refugees led to a 0.72-0.74% increase in housing rents. Additionally, we found some evidence that the arrival of migrants may have slightly increased apartment prices; however, the impact is smaller than in the case of rents and statistically significant only in selected specifications.The paper contributes to the literature on the impact of immigration or refugee inflow on housing market dynamics. The rent increases reported in this study may have serious housing policy implications, both in the short and mid-run.

The article deals with the housing market shock in Poland's five largest cities caused by the arrival of refugees from Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. The study examines the changes in rent and house prices before and after the start of the war conflict in Ukraine using a unique dataset on housing listings. We use a difference-in-difference quasi-experimental scenario to test whether exposure to mass refugees inflow translates to housing market dynamics. In particular, we evaluate the causal response of apartment prices and rents to the time-varying exposure to mass refugee inflows from Ukraine in Krakow, Lodz, Poznan, Warsaw and Wroclaw. According to our findings, an increase in a city population of 1% caused by the inflow of refugees led to a 0.67% increase in housing rents. Additionally, we found that the arrival of migrants may have increased apartment prices; however, the effect is not statistically significant.

Objective: The article aims to investigate the synchronisation of metropolitan house prices from 2000 to 2020 based on novel empirical data. We applied several econometric procedures to address the cyclicity of housing markets. Research Design & Methods: Using a unique dataset of over four million offers, we investigated the synchronisation of 18 regional housing markets in Poland from 2000 to 2020. The study used spectral analysis. Findings: The study proved the strong synchronisation of housing cycles in Polish regional housing markets. Moreover, when the cycle amplitude was considered, the econometric analysis showed regional disparities in the cyclical behaviour of housing prices. According to the research, Lublin and Opole had the lowest housing cycle magnitude, and Gdańsk, Katowice, and Łódź had the largest magnitude. Implications & Recommendations: The information about housing cycles has important policy implications. Housing wealth effects generated by cyclical house prices may be more persistent than financial wealth effects. Consequently, they may substantially affect consumption dynamics. Therefore, precisely identifying market cycles and differences in cycle synchronisation is vital when constructing an effective, selective, and well-timed monetary policy. Contribution & Value Added: The research narrows the knowledge gap on the synchronisation of housing markets in an emerging economic environment. With their distinct institutional structures, Eastern European countries have little knowledge of this issue.

The construction, expansion and operation of airports within the urban landscape cause both positive and negative externalities. Several planning tools are used in practice to limit negative environmental externalities and mitigate conflicts between non-compatible urban land uses. In Poland the special planning zones - Limited Use Areas - are introduced around the airport to impose restrictions related to sensitive land uses (e.g. hospitals, schools, care homes) and sometimes also related to residential land use. In case of the latter, the restrictions introduced in Polish Limited Use Areas are non-existent or minimal at best, yet the introduction of such special planning zones brings public attention to airport-related negative externalities (mainly aircraft noise) and potentially stigmatizes the area. The main purpose of this study is to verify the view that the official introduction of Limited Use Areas regulation by the State affects houses prices in the local market. The study was conducted in Poland for two medium sized airports located in Poznan and Gdansk, before and after public planning intervention around the airport. We apply, among others, a non-spatial and spatial difference-in-difference framework and geographic weighted regression to evaluate the impact of potential stigmatization caused by the introduction of the limited use areas. The findings indicate that public planning intervention had a spatially varied impact on the house prices, and we observed temporal adjustment of house prices, along with the changing perceptions in the area stigmatized by the enforcement of the limited use area around the airport. We also demonstrate that the effect varies between the cities investigate

This study analysed the impact of the War in Ukraine on rental and housing prices in Warsaw and Krakow, two major cities in Poland. Quantile hedonic indices indicated a significant increase in the rents since the beginning of the Russian invasion in both markets affected by the migration shock. Similar effects were not found in the case of housing prices. Using Bayesian Structural Time Series, we demonstrated that this abnormal increase is not random, and we concluded that the inflow of Ukrainian refugees most likely caused it. Furthermore, the migration shock was the most significant in the case of the low-priced rental market.

House price dynamics, housing bubbles and housing crisis have drawn public attention. Aside from various policy implications the links between fundamentals and house prices has been tackled with some success both theoretically and empirically. Still new evidence is needed since Covid-19 pandemics has shifted many mechanisms governing housing market behaviour. We investigate the dynamics of house prices in Poland both on metropolitan level from 2000 to 2021. We test whether the price adjustments were caused by fundamental factors such as income, population growth, construction costs. The analysis covers two sub-periods of relatively high house price increases: 2004-2007 and more recent 2017-2021 sub-period. We check whether house prices are similarly related to fundamentals in both subperiods or whether there are distinct differences. Additionally, based on the economic literature we test and compare several housing bubbles indicators. The paper narrows the gap on housing bubbles on regional housing markets, especially in less mature economies.

This study analysed the impact of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 on rental and housing prices in Warsaw and Krakow, two major cities in Poland. We hypothesize that the tremendous urban population growth (by 15% in Warsaw and 23% in Krakow) in a short period generated a housing demand shock, which, combined with constrained availability, resulted in extraordinary changes in prices and rents. Quantile hedonic indices indicated a significant increase in rents since the beginning of the Russian invasion in both markets, which were affected by the refugee shock. However, similar effects were not observed in the case of housing prices. In March and April of 2022, rents increased by around 16.5% in Krakow and 14% in Warsaw, while housing prices in both cities rose by much less (by about 4.0% in Krakow and 1% in Warsaw). Using Bayesian Structural Time Series models, we demonstrated that this abnormal rent increase is not random, and we concluded that the inflow of Ukrainian refugees most likely caused it.

Using a unique dataset of 4.6 million offers, we investigate the convergence of 28 regional housing markets in Poland from 2000 to 2019. The objective of the paper is twofold. First, we test whether the house prices in Poland are converging over time and identify convergence clubs. Second, we compare the housing market convergence before and after the global financial crisis. The test results suggest that there is little evidence of overall convergence. We identified three major convergence clubs in Poland formed during the study period. However, the results differed when considering subperiods (before and after the 3rd quarter of 2008)—we found three and four clubs in subperiods and some divergent housing markets. The paper fills the gap in knowledge on the convergence of regional housing markets within an emerging economy setting. Little is known about this phenomenon in Eastern European Countries with their unique institutional framework. Additionally, we address differences in house price convergence before, and after the financial crisis, a topic often overlooked in other empirical studies.

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on local tax policy-making, in particular regarding yardstick competition in the area-based property taxation system. Based on data from 300 municipalities located in ten metropolitan areas in Poland over ten years, we identify whether we are faced with tax mimicking induced by political considerations in tax rates setting. In particular, we seek to identify whether the spatial interdependence of property tax rates set by local governments of Polish municipalities is driven by a yardstick competition mechanism. The analytical approach is based on the estimation of the spatial residential property tax reaction function by using spatial autoregressive panel models. In order to verify the presence of yardstick competition, we include a set of purely political variables in the models and test their impact on tax rate decisions. The results confirm the evidence of yardstick competition, which, however, is present only in a few of the examined metropolitan areas. We found nominal tax rates for residential buildings that were significantly lower in election years, and empirical evidence of several political factors influencing local tax policies in Poland.

The goal of the paper is to evaluate the impact of selected factors on the adoption of LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) green building certification in Europe. In the empirical part of the paper we track the fraction of LEED-registered office space in selected European cities, and assess the impact of selected socioeconomic and environmental factors on the certification adoption rate. This research contributes to the ongoing debate about the adoption of green buildings in commercial property markets. In this paper, we investigate factors affecting the adoption of LEED certification using the Arellano and Bond generalized method-of-moments estimator. Compared to prior studies, which relied on cross-sectional data, our research uses a panel approach to investigate the changes in green building adoption rates in selected European cities. Among the cities that are quickly adopting LEED are Frankfurt, Warsaw, Stockholm, and Dublin. The adoption process was not equally fast in Brussels and Copenhagen. Using the dynamic panel model approach, we found that the adoption of green building certification is linked to overall innovativeness in the economy and the perceived greenness of the city. Contrary to some previous studies we did not observe links between the size of the office market and the LEED adoption rate.

Research Highlights: In the paper, we explore systematic discrepancy between sale prices and values of forest properties in Poland. We argue that the systematic valuation bias found is partially caused by the simplified parametric appraisal methodology currently used in Poland. Background and Objectives: Most of the forests in Poland are state-owned, but in recent decades, the market for private forest properties has been dynamically growing. In the paper, we investigate the relations between the actual transaction prices, and the estimated value of forest properties in selected regions in Poland. We hypothesize that sale prices systematically deviate from valuations. An additional question arises regarding the determinants of forest property prices. We hypothesize that due to asymmetric information positive amenities are not fully capitalized in property prices in Poland. Materials and Methods: In the paper, we adopt two regression models used to investigate the valuation accuracy and bias. We test the hypothesis that valuations are unbiased estimates of transaction prices. Results: The results indicate that market prices for forest properties systematically differ from estimated values. Conclusions: Systematic deviation of forest property sales prices from market values may contribute to the imperfect information available to the market participants, especially when information is asymmetrically distributed between buyers and sellers. This may confirm the hypothesis that sellers are not fully aware of the advantages of the property being sold, and provide further explanations for large systematic differences between sales prices and valuations based on parametric valuation methods used in Poland.

Airports in Poland are obliged to observe the sustainable development principle and therefore to reduce their environmental impact by creating so-called limited use areas (LUA) related to aircraft-generated noise. The research authors analyzed airports’ impact on the prices of single-family homes located in the vicinity of airports. The LUA is therefore defined as the area designated to study the airport’s specific impact on the single-family housing market. This is a formal limit which determines the examination of price changes and the decision-making conditions of market participants. This methodical approach is justified because no excessive noise is expected outside the LUA. Therefore, two markets in the vicinity of airports were examined. One is in an LUA which is closer to the airport, and the other market is outside the LUA where external noise effects are not present. Thus, we consider that real estate located outside the LUA is not subject to a significant negative impact from the airport. The study covered the Gdańsk Lech Walesa Airport and the Warsaw Chopin Airport in Poland in adjacent areas with the research time horizon of 2013–2017. The study examined single-family house prices. We used a time series analysis, a classic multiple regression model, a spatial autoregressive model, and geographically weighted regression models in our research. Additionally, Geographical Information System (GIS) tools were used to visualize the results of our study. The research result was to demonstrate different impact levels of airports on the prices of single-family houses located in limited-use areas in Gdańsk and Warsaw. This research carries significant implications for the general public and airports’ economic decisions in resolving conflicts between the airport and residential property owners in airports’ vicinities.

Objectives: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has serious economic and social consequences – global, regional, and local. The overall goal of the paper is to investigate the dynamics of housing markets in selected European countries during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Research Design & Methods: We evaluate housing indicators in three European countries: Spain, Italy, and the UK. We explore house prices and other housing market indicators, such as transaction volume or rents. The paper also discusses major policy concerns regarding the effects of COVID-19 on housing welfare and urban transformations. Findings: We found out that the COVID-19 pandemic had a strong impact on housing transaction volume and housing preferences. We observed a transitionary house price decrease in the UK, but no significant effect was detected in Italy and Spain. Implications / Recommendations: Due to concerns related to housing affordability and overwhelming housing costs, housing policy should target vulnerable group of tenants and property owners. Contribution / Value Added: Despite some obvious transmission mechanisms, the effects of the pandemic on the real estate sector have not been investigated comprehensively in the real-estate, housing, or urban literature to date. This paper aims to fill this gap by discussing the consequences of the pandemic on the housing sector in Europe.

The purpose of this paper is to identify whether tax rate choices in the area-based tax system are perceived as an instrument prone to manipulation in accordance with election cycles. We use the unique cross-sectional panel data from 300 municipalities in 10 metropolitan areas in Poland over the period 2006-2015. We find clear evidence of the property tax policy cycle in all types of communes. Our results are in line with mainstream literature findings; however, because of a different institutional framework, this study brings new insights into area-based property tax systems prevailing in many developing and developed countries.

Dynamics of rent, vacancy, supply and demand on the office market of emerging commercial real estate markets have long been under-researched. The paper fills the gap in economic literature by investigating the growing office market in Warsaw. In particular, we evaluate whether the influence of demand and supply shocks differ depending on the current market conditions. Using Error Correction Model approach, we investigated the rent adjustments on the office market in Warsaw, which is the major property market in Central and Eastern Europe. We replaced variables of the basic model with asymmetric variables to check for asymmetric adjustments in the office market. The study period covers data from 2005:1Q to 2016:1Q. The empirical results suggest that demand shock had a stronger impact on rent when the market vacancy rate was below the average for the period considered. Additionally, the demand shock had a stronger impact on rent when the rent was above the equilibrium level.