Transportation noise is a disamenity that is often capitalized into home prices. Standard hedonic models condition on disamenity levels at a particular point in time, but housing markets may also be absorbing information about the noise trajectory that leads to those levels. Spatial heterogeneity is also often a concern in noise studies. We propose an innovative two-dimensional classification framework that separately distinguishes net outcome (improvement vs. deterioration) and temporal pattern (permanent, late, non-permanent), as well as controls for spatial effects. We leverage this framework to analyze three distinct versions of Warsaw's Noise Maps (2012, 2017, 2022) linked to more than 147,000 apartment sales. Noise improvements are capitalized into significant home price premia that are systematically moderated by trajectory type. Permanent Improvements are associated with 2.6-3.9% home price premia, and Non-permanent Improvements (net reductions achieved by non-monotonic paths) experience intermediate price effects of 1.5-1.7%. The resulting per-decibel capitalization rate is nearly twice as large for permanent vs. late-arriving improvements (0.49%/dB vs. 0.26%/dB), suggesting that markets value demonstrated persistence above and beyond current conditions. Deterioration effects are statistically significant but less robust than improvement effects, with relatively small sample sizes reducing statistical power. These results show trajectory characteristics can offer information that can be capitalized above and beyond disamenity levels, and that standard hedonic estimates may substantially overstate deterioration effects when spatial dependence is ignored.

This paper shows the usefulness of open source points-of-interest (POI) data for understanding the causes of volatility in residential property prices. Points of interest are unique locations or features cartographically mapped in space and explicitly connected to various aspects of human life. This point number, and density, primarily reflect a city’s spatial structure. They could therefore indicate a higher quality of life in a given urban zone, resulting in higher demand for housing in the area and, consequently, higher housing prices. This study was conducted in three Polish cities: Warsaw, Poznań and Olsztyn. Our research also attempted to establish which POI categories constitute stimulants and which are destimulants in the housing market. To determine the significance of POI in the price formation process, we used the quantile regression model and its spatial version, apart from classical regression models. The results of our research show the importance of POIs for the formation of housing prices. Individual POI categories are of minor importance, while the simultaneous presence of many different POIs definitely has a positive impact on housing prices.

The stability of municipal revenues is crucial for long-term socio-economic planning at the city level. This paper presents the impact of changes in legal regulations mandating the transformation of perpetual usufruct into ownership on preferential terms. Using micro-level information on transactions and plots handed over in perpetual usufruct for single-family housing, we determined potential losses in the City of Poznan caused by the new regulations. The research uses mass appraisal models to assess the fees related to the land value of properties affected by the legal transformation, scenario analysis, and Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the consequences of the change in the regulation in the long run. The simulation results indicate that the municipalities are deprived of relatively stable revenues after the reform. In Poznan, we assess that the net present value of revenue losses ranged from -327.3 mln PLN to -419.6 mln PLN (74.6 % to 92.9 % reduction of the baseline revenues, respectively). Incorporating provisions allowing the perpetual usufruct of developed land to be converted to housing is less financially beneficial for municipalities than for perpetual usufruct holders. Additionally, it significantly manages municipal strategic control of local development within the city and reduces municipal land resources. The research attempts to narrow the gap in knowledge about the role of land leases in municipal revenues.

In recent years, a lot of empirical effort has been made to search for potential nonlinear responses of house prices to various demand and supply factors. This paper examines Poland's heterogeneous regional housing market reactions to key economic variables from 2000 to 2022. The study raises two research questions related to the asymmetric adjustment of housing markets to selected demand and supply shocks.Firstly, we ask whether the house price adjustments to negative shocks are relatively minor (for example, during an economic downturn) when compared to positive shocks (prevalent in booming markets), mainly due to the loss aversion behavior theory and nominal rigidity of house prices. In particular, we test the hypothesis that house prices react more to positive impulses from supply and demand than negative ones.Secondly, we investigate whether market reactions are similar for large and small metropolitan markets. The second hypothesis posits that metropolitan housing markets adjust asymmetrically to demand and supply shocks based on the city size (population and housing stock in a given city).The study uses a nonlinear ARDL model to test the research hypotheses empirically. This paper provides new insights into the nonlinear reactions of house prices to exogenous shocks and adds to the limited empirical evidence from less developed economies.

There is a broad consensus in international statistical organizations such as Eurostat and the International Monetary Fund that house price indices (HPIs) should be constructed using transaction data. We show here how transaction data for new-built properties can undermine the timeliness of hedonic HPIs when new-built properties are pre-sold during the planning or building stage, but entered into deed books only once the projects are completed. As a consequence, HPIs for new-builds will include stale transaction prices. We investigate this issue for two Polish cities (Warsaw and Poznan) and find that HPIs for existing properties lead indices for new-builds by up to 2 years. This lag can dramatically distort National HPIs. The lag also has implications for the flagship measure of inflation in Europe-the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)-since it is planned to include owner-occupied housing in the HICP using a transactions HPI specifically for new-builds. We show that the timeliness issue disappears when preliminary agreements on new-builds are used instead of transactions in the compilation of an HPI.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has become a global issue and caused a major refugee crisis in Europe. The displacement of millions of people from Ukraine, who entered neighbouring countries, attributed to a housing demand shock in host cities and subsequent increases in rents and prices.The article investigates the housing market reaction in Poland's five largest cities caused by the arrival of refugees from Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. We use a difference-in-difference quasi-experimental scenario to test whether exposure to mass refugee inflow translates to housing market dynamics.According to our findings, an increase in a city population of 1 pp caused by the inflow of refugees led to a 0.72-0.74% increase in housing rents. Additionally, we found some evidence that the arrival of migrants may have slightly increased apartment prices; however, the impact is smaller than in the case of rents and statistically significant only in selected specifications.The paper contributes to the literature on the impact of immigration or refugee inflow on housing market dynamics. The rent increases reported in this study may have serious housing policy implications, both in the short and mid-run.

Consumer sentiment and opinion indicators are fundamentally driven by respondents' economic circumstances and financial status. The volatility of these variables is hypothesised to correlate significantly with labour market dynamics, particularly unemployment rates. This study investigates these relationships by analysing quantitative and qualitative labour market indicators. The methodological approach incorporates consumer survey metrics, business tendency indicators for projected employment, and macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal a distinct dichotomy in how respondents evaluate macroeconomic conditions versus their household circumstances. For macroeconomic assessments, the data necessitated transformation into annual relative increments, whereas household-specific evaluations demonstrated stronger correlations with economic trend-cycle data. Labour market conditions emerged as the predominant factor influencing household sentiment, with particularly robust correlations between macroeconomic indicators and consumers' savings potential and feasibility assessments. Among the macroeconomic variables examined, the highest predictive validity was exhibited by consumer assessments regarding durable goods purchasing rationale, savings capacity, and the aggregate consumer confidence indicator (CCI).

The article deals with the housing market shock in Poland's five largest cities caused by the arrival of refugees from Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. The study examines the changes in rent and house prices before and after the start of the war conflict in Ukraine using a unique dataset on housing listings. We use a difference-in-difference quasi-experimental scenario to test whether exposure to mass refugees inflow translates to housing market dynamics. In particular, we evaluate the causal response of apartment prices and rents to the time-varying exposure to mass refugee inflows from Ukraine in Krakow, Lodz, Poznan, Warsaw and Wroclaw. According to our findings, an increase in a city population of 1% caused by the inflow of refugees led to a 0.67% increase in housing rents. Additionally, we found that the arrival of migrants may have increased apartment prices; however, the effect is not statistically significant.

The paper investigates the potential house price bubble in 18 provincial capital cities in Poland from 2000 to 2022. This is the first comprehensive effort to examine the house price exuberance throughout two housing market cycles (2000-2013 and 2014-2022, respectively). Additionally, we evaluate the risk of the housing bubble during a volatile era when the housing market in Poland was exposed to significant external shocks connected to COVID-19. In the study, we apply the new generation of recursive housing bubble identification procedures developed by Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015) and test whether the explosive behaviour of house prices in Polish cities was linked to household incomes and rents. Using the Error Correction Model, we also checked whether house prices were linked to fundamentals. In general, we observed explosive behaviour of house prices during the 2006-2007 period, which is not justified by fundamentals in all cities examined. The length and precise timing of the bubble phases varied amongst regional cities. Despite this, the findings are consistent with earlier data from other nations, which adds credence to the idea that the 2007 housing bubble was a worldwide occurrence. Contrary to what is commonly believed and reported in the media, we have not seen any indications of irrational house price behaviour in Polish cities during the Covid-19 outbreak. Contrary to the overwhelming evidence for the house price exuberance between 2006 and 2007, we conclude that there is no solid evidence of the existence of the housing bubble in recent years.

Using a micro-level dataset of over 1 million listings, the housing rental index for Poland from 2000 to 2023 was constructed. The offer data for the biggest cities comes from two different sources. The earlier data were obtained from archival advertisements in photocopies, photographs or periodicals, then digitally reproduced and arranged in a database. The data from 2009 were collected from advertising portals (gratka.pl / otodom.pl) several times a quarter. The hedonic indices were determined for the city level and then aggregated. This allowed us to investigate the rental market during the financial crisis, COVID-19 or the refugee crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Objective: The article aims to investigate the synchronisation of metropolitan house prices from 2000 to 2020 based on novel empirical data. We applied several econometric procedures to address the cyclicity of housing markets. Research Design & Methods: Using a unique dataset of over four million offers, we investigated the synchronisation of 18 regional housing markets in Poland from 2000 to 2020. The study used spectral analysis. Findings: The study proved the strong synchronisation of housing cycles in Polish regional housing markets. Moreover, when the cycle amplitude was considered, the econometric analysis showed regional disparities in the cyclical behaviour of housing prices. According to the research, Lublin and Opole had the lowest housing cycle magnitude, and Gdańsk, Katowice, and Łódź had the largest magnitude. Implications & Recommendations: The information about housing cycles has important policy implications. Housing wealth effects generated by cyclical house prices may be more persistent than financial wealth effects. Consequently, they may substantially affect consumption dynamics. Therefore, precisely identifying market cycles and differences in cycle synchronisation is vital when constructing an effective, selective, and well-timed monetary policy. Contribution & Value Added: The research narrows the knowledge gap on the synchronisation of housing markets in an emerging economic environment. With their distinct institutional structures, Eastern European countries have little knowledge of this issue.

The paper analysed the impact of different noise sources on the residential market. This research used the hedonic method in OLS, SAR and SEM models based on the data set containing geocoded 16,247 apartments in Poznan. Strong evidence was found that noise is negatively linked with apartment prices. The apartment prices were the most significantly influenced by railway noise – an increase of 1 dB above 55 dB causes a 1.79% decrease in the value of an apartment. For other noise sources, aviation noise had the most significant impact with a 0.59% decrease in value per dB, tram noise with a 0.32% decrease and road noise with a 0.12% decrease. The influence of different noise levels on apartments is not constant and does not assume a linear relationship. For road noise, noise below 60 dB and tram noise below 65 dB were statistically insignificant. This may indicate that these noise levels are acceptable and are compensated by better access to public roads or urban transport.

We examine the price drivers in 18 capital housing markets in Poland from 2004 to 2021. Using the Bayesian Model Averaging method, we discovered that some financial elements explain house price changes more consistently than conventional economic and demographic variables. The dynamics of house prices in most cities were defined explicitly by financial factors – mortgage market activity, mortgage interest rate, and terms and conditions of granting mortgages. Additionally, the stock market played a vital role in house price movement in selected cities. Economic (regional GDP, salaries, unemployment) and demographic (migration) factors were significant predictors of housing price dynamics only for particular cities. Our study closes the knowledge gap on factors influencing home price dynamics in Poland and other developing nations that have gone through systemic change. In the case of Eastern European countries, we have limited knowledge of those linkages.

This study analysed the impact of the War in Ukraine on rental and housing prices in Warsaw and Krakow, two major cities in Poland. Quantile hedonic indices indicated a significant increase in the rents since the beginning of the Russian invasion in both markets affected by the migration shock. Similar effects were not found in the case of housing prices. Using Bayesian Structural Time Series, we demonstrated that this abnormal increase is not random, and we concluded that the inflow of Ukrainian refugees most likely caused it. Furthermore, the migration shock was the most significant in the case of the low-priced rental market.

House price dynamics, housing bubbles and housing crisis have drawn public attention. Aside from various policy implications the links between fundamentals and house prices has been tackled with some success both theoretically and empirically. Still new evidence is needed since Covid-19 pandemics has shifted many mechanisms governing housing market behaviour. We investigate the dynamics of house prices in Poland both on metropolitan level from 2000 to 2021. We test whether the price adjustments were caused by fundamental factors such as income, population growth, construction costs. The analysis covers two sub-periods of relatively high house price increases: 2004-2007 and more recent 2017-2021 sub-period. We check whether house prices are similarly related to fundamentals in both subperiods or whether there are distinct differences. Additionally, based on the economic literature we test and compare several housing bubbles indicators. The paper narrows the gap on housing bubbles on regional housing markets, especially in less mature economies.

Using a micro-level dataset of over 5 million listings, house price indexes for Poland over the period 1996 to 2021 was constructed. The offer data for the biggest cities comes from two different sources. The earlier data were obtained from archival advertisements in photocopies, photographs or periodicals, then digitally reproduced and arranged in a database. The data from 2009 were collected from advertising portals (gratka.pl / otodom.pl) several times a quarter. The hedonic indices were determined for each city and then aggregated. The constructed index has some limitations but provides information on the housing market in Poland for much longer than officially published.

Current trends in house prices are an important input into decisions on monetary and fiscal policy and macro-prudential supervision. However, long lags in the availability of transaction data imply that current transaction prices are generally unavailable for this purpose. These information lags can be quite long; e.g., in Poland, the current registration lag lies at over 200 days. We show how micro-level list price data can be used to now-cast the current direction of transaction prices in the residential property market and thus fill a vital information vacuum. In particular, we show that to estimate the current direction of the transaction price index, a simple model based on current list price changes outperforms a range of other model specifications based on lagged transaction data. We illustrate our method and results with the help of a detailed list and transaction dataset that covers two large Polish cities (Warsaw and Poznan) for over two decades. The multiple up-and-down movements of the Polish property market during our sample period provide an ideal setting to test the performance of our approach. Our findings imply that list price indices can provide valuable “real-time” market estimations. Employing them in conjunction with official transaction price indices can significantly reduce the information vacuum of policymakers.