Significance Here, we compile and present the most comprehensive data available on cheetah distribution and status. Our analysis shows dramatic declines of cheetah across its distributional range. Most cheetah occur outside protected areas, where they are exposed to multiple threats, but there is little information on population status. Simulation modeling shows that, where cheetah population growth rates are suppressed outside protected areas, extinction risk increases markedly. This result can be generalized to other “protection-reliant” species, and a decision tree is provided to improve their extinction risk estimation. Ultimately, the persistence of protection-reliant species depends on their survival outside and inside protected areas and requires a holistic approach to conservation that engages rather than alienates local communities.

Sarah M. Durant[1],[2],[3]*, Nicholas Mitchell1,2, Rosemary Groom1,2, Nathalie Pettorelli1,3, Audrey Ipavec1,2, Andrew P Jacobson1,[4], Rosie Woodroffe1,3, Monika Böhm1,3, Luke T. B. Hunter[5], Matt Becker[6],[7], Femke Broekuis[8],[9], Sultana Bashir1, Leah Andresen[10], Ortwin Aschenborn[11], Mohammed Beddiaf[12], Farid Belbachir[13], Amel Belbachir-Bazi13, Ali Berbash[14], Iracelma Brandao de Matos Machado[15], Christine Breitenmoser[16],[17], Monica Chege[18], Deon Cilliers[19], Harriet Davies-Mostert[20], Amy J Dickman8, Ezequiel Fabiano[21], Mohammad Farhadinia8, Paul Funston5, Philipp Henschel5, Jane Horgan[22], Hans de Iongh[23], Houman Jowkar[24],[25], Rebecca Klein23, Peter A. Lindsey5, Laurie Marker[26], Kelly Marnewick20, Joerg Melzheimer[27], Johnathan Merkle6, Jassiel Msoka[28], Maurus Msuha[29], Helen O'Neill1,3, Megan Parker[30], Gianetta Purchase1, Sahailou Samaila[31], Yohanna Saidu[32], Abdoulkarim Samna30, Anne Schmidt-Küentzel25, Eda Selebatso[33], Etotépé A. Sogbohossou[34], Alaaeldin Soultan[35], Emma Stone[36], Esther van der Meer[37], Rudie van Vuuren[38], Mary Wykstra[39], Kim Young-Overton5