This study introduces a novel deterministic differential equation framework for modeling drought-state transitions and drought vulnerability of Türkiye by adapting an epidemiologically inspired susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) structure to hydroclimatological analysis. Monthly precipitation records from 197 meteorological stations covering 1980–2020 were used to derive annual simplified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-like index classifications. These classifications were encoded into dynamic vulnerability states and used to construct empirically parameterized governing differential equations based on derivative-driven interactions among compartments. Unlike conventional drought studies that focus primarily on statistical trend detection or probabilistic index computation, this study models drought evolution as a coupled dynamical transition system. Spearman correlation analysis and regression-based curve fitting were employed to identify statistically significant derivative relationships. The resulting governing equations explain between 57.4 and 80

This study aims to clarify the existing complexity by exploring the conceptual and theoretical foundations of climate-related displacement and mobility; and by deriving a perspective on climatic displacement and mobility from empirical findings in the literature and data from global institutions that collect climate-related migration data. Climate-related human mobility is increasingly recognized as a significant and pressing global concern. Academic interest in this topic, while emerging after the 2000s, has led to a relatively complex and somewhat fragmented body of literature, reflecting its contemporary and interdisciplinary relevance. Studies related to the topic have been thoroughly reviewed, and a systematic and comprehensive evaluation has been made through critical literature analysis. According to this, climate-induced migration is on the rise in many parts of the world, especially in Southeast Asia, Central Africa, and the Americas. As climate change intensifies, its existing areas of impact continue to expand, and this further complicates mobility dynamics, particularly by acting as a compounding factor that exacerbates socioeconomic vulnerabilities and structural inequalities. Research findings and literature suggest that climate change-induced migration may become more pronounced in the future and emerge as an important item on the global agenda. While analyzing the broader phenomenon of climate-induced migration, the study focuses primarily on disaster-driven internal displacement due to data limitations from global institutions like the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC).

ABSTRACT This study provides a comprehensive assessment of meteorological, agro‐ecological, and hydrological drought dynamics in Türkiye over 1980–2022 using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month timescales. Trend magnitudes were quantified using Sen's slope estimator, and trend significance was evaluated using the Hamed‐Rao variance‐corrected Mann‐Kendall (M‐K) test. Temporal evolution was assessed using the sequential Mann‐Kendall (SM‐K) test and a 9‐point low‐pass Gaussian filter highlighting long‐period fluctuations. The Pettitt, Buishand, and Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) tests were applied as change point tests, and persistence was evaluated using first‐order detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Results revealed a systematic divergence between SPI and SPEI series. While the SPI time series showed no statistically significant trends across annual, water‐year, or seasonal aggregations at the 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month timescales, the SPEI time series showed statistically significant increasing drought trends across most annual, water‐year, and seasonal series. This indicates that precipitation‐only drought assessment may be incomplete in the case of Türkiye, where rising air temperatures amplify atmospheric evaporative demand and intensify drought‐prone climatic water‐balance conditions. Seasonal analysis indicated that significant SPEI trends concentrated in summer and autumn at the 3‐month scale expanded to include winter at the 6‐month scale and extended to all seasons at the 12‐month scale. SM‐K and Gaussian‐filter results indicated prolonged periods of statistically significant increasing drought trends mainly from the late 1990s and early 2000s onward, while the Pettitt, Buishand, and SNHT tests identified the change point in the SPEI series around 1998–1999. DFA scaling exponent ( α ) values approached or exceeded 1.0, especially for SPEI‐6 and SPEI‐12, indicating non‐stationary or low‐frequency‐dominant scaling within the fitted range. Regional assessments revealed that precipitation deficits were more evident in the inland semi‐arid regions, namely, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia, and Southeastern Anatolia. In the humid coastal regions, increasing drought trends were more clearly expressed in the SPEI series that includes the evaporative demand. Overall, these results show a shift toward more persistent drought‐prone hydroclimatic conditions in Türkiye, particularly in the SPEI‐based climatic water‐balance series.

The study is aimed at investigating future changes in sustainability of olive farming by means of climate change, and changes in agricultural climatic suitableness and phenology of olive tree cultivation in the North Aegean sub-region of Türkiye mainly characterised with dry summer subtropical Mediterranean climate. According to projected changes based on RCP8.5 scenario, projected warming reaches an average of 5-6°C increase indicating most negative condition on olive cultivation. According to RCP8.5 scenario annual precipitation projections, present suitable areas of olive groves will decrease in the period of 2049-2073, and almost the entire study area will be in the category of medium suitable. With respect to projected Emberger Bioclimate classification, for RCP 8.5 scenario, there will be a significant increase in dry-sub humid areas in the period of 2049-2073. This increase will cover up the coastal areas in the period of 2074-2098, and even all the study region will be very likely characterised with dry-sub humid and semi-arid Mediterranean bioclimatic types except for some coastal areas. An increase of about 6°C is expected in maximum values of maximum air temperatures during the bud swelling periods in the spring, especially after 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario. This increase in extreme maximum temperatures may cause olive trees to bloom earlier and prolong the growth period. By regarding the high vernalization requirement of main olive variety in the study area, a 6°C temperature increase may significantly decrease olive yields and will force farmers to transition to new varieties with relatively low vernalization requirements. According to both RCP scenarios, there is a possibility of extension of suitable areas for olive cultivation towards low to mid-elevation plateaus and mid-elevation slopes of mountainous areas and high plateaus particularly facing suitable aspects to lower negative effects of projected future warming and dryness.

Pinus pinea L. (Stone pine) is an important tree species in the Mediterranean basin, particularly in coastal regions characterized by a subtropical Mediterranean climate with dry summers. It is widely cultivated for its pine nuts and aesthetic appearance. The recent decrease in pine nut production in the Aegean Region has prompted us to investigate whether the growth of stone pine trees is affected by climate change. We collected 60 cores from 30 trees at two sites representing lower and higher elevations. Using standard dendrochronological analysis, two site chronologies were constructed for the lower and higher altitudes. Linear and non-linear analyses were performed to determine the climate-growth relationship of sampled trees. Furthermore, we calculated growth resilience to drought, including resistance and recovery components. We also examined the climatic trends in the study area to enhance our understanding of the climate-growth relationship. The air temperature time series analyzed in this study has shown a recent shift towards higher average temperatures, observed around the late 1980s and early 1990s. We observed a positive correlation between residual chronologies and total precipitations from December to July. Adequate precipitation in early autumn is essential for latewood formation. The positive correlation between tree-ring growth and winter temperatures indicates that milder winters extend the vegetation period and affects the radial growth of pines. Moreover, moving correlation analysis revealed a notable shift, with the limiting effect of drought significantly increasing and the limiting impact of winter cold diminishing in the early 1990s. Generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) analysis described thresholds for additional increment based on the non-linear relationship with precipitation and weakly non-linear relationship with temperature. Stone pine trees showed relatively low resistance, high recovery, and a general low resilience to drought.

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2–4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots10. Our assessment of a 27-country weather station dataset in the Mediterranean region revealed long-term stability in precipitation over 150 years, along with substantial short-term variability on annual to decadal scales driven by atmospheric circulation; these findings align with the precipitation trends seen in CMIP6 models.

Although there has been extensive scientific work on the impacts of major volcanic eruptions on global and regional climates, the Middle East remains a knowledge gap in this regard. Our aim is to establish surface air temperature responses across the Middle East and easternmost Mediterranean basin, following three major tropical volcanic eruptions: Krakatau (1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo (1991). This study utilizes available data from CMIP6 climate models to analyze climatic responses to these eruptions. The longest-lasting cool anomalies, persisting for six years, followed the Krakatau eruption. The most pronounced post-Krakatau cooling occurred in 1884, with a regionally averaged temperature departure of -0.74 °C, relative to a mean baseline temperature. In contrast, the Agung eruption caused a regionally averaged temperature departure of -0.59 °C in 1964, but its cooling effect was more temporally limited, lasting approximately 3½ years. Air temperatures over the Middle East were depressed for over a decade following the Pinatubo eruption, but this may have been due to additional unidentified climatic factors. This extended cool period was marked by the strongest regionally averaged post-volcanic temperature departure of -0.76 °C, recorded in 1992. Our findings highlight that the extent of such cooling varied across the Middle East, with the most pronounced cooling occurring at higher elevations and latitudes, while southern regions (especially the Arabian Peninsula) experienced more moderate cooling. This study underscores that a combination of factors, including regional climate dynamics, have likely played a significant role in determining the intensity and duration of cooling associated with major volcanic eruptions, in the Middle East.

This study aimed at comparing the geographical and climatological changes in the spatial distributions and average elevations of Türkiye’s recent past (1961 − 1990) present (1991 − 2020) and projected future climate types in detail via the Köppen-Geiger (K-G) classification. The future K-G climate types were examined for the periods of 2041–2070 and 2071–2099 based on low (SSP1 − 2.6), medium (SSP2-4.5), and very high (SSP5-8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. From 1961 − 1990 to 1991 − 2020, the mid-latitude semi-arid steppe (BSk), subtropical semi-arid steppe (BSh), and dry summer Mediterranean (Csa) climates expanded from 21.9

Drought is a major concern in Turkey, significantly affecting agriculture, water resources and the economy, especially in the Central Anatolia region with a semiarid steppe and dry-sub-humid climate. This study aims to develop an optimal forecasting model for Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values over various periods (1-24 months) using data from 50 stations in the Central Anatolia region. It compares statistical forecasting and machine learning methods, finding that machine learning algorithms, particularly the Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network, outperform statistical approaches. The results show a consistent increase in drought severity and highlight the robust performance of top models across different SPEI periods. The study provides a benchmark for future research on forecasting models and underscores the need for effective drought mitigation and adaptation strategies. The incorporation of advanced machine learning algorithms, such as the Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network, and their comparison with traditional statistical methods highlight the potential for more accurate and adaptive drought forecasting models.

This study presents a geographical and temporal analysis of drought in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin from 1960 to 2023, utilizing the high-resolution TerraClimate dataset. Two primary drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were employed to assess the dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts. The results indicate an increased intensity and frequency of drought events, especially after the year 1990. The SPEI index highlights the critical negative impact of increased evapotranspiration on the climatological soil–water balance due to the increased evaporative demand as a function of the increased air temperatures in the study region. SPI analyses revealed that changes in precipitation patterns have increased over time, resulting in more frequent regional drought events. SPEI, on the other hand, reflects the drought trend and drought severity more precisely because it takes into account the increasing trend in evapotranspiration as a function of rising air temperatures. SPI and SPEI provided insights into long-term hydrological drought patterns, emphasizing the need for region-specific drought mitigation and adaptation strategies. These findings underscore the value of integrated drought monitoring and assessment for water management and climate adaptation planning in semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions.

Today, the best way to discern the interlinkages between climate change and sustainability and/or sustainable development is the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13—Climate Action framework. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted in 2015 presents a shared blueprint for the peace and prosperity of humanity and the planet both now and in the future. At its core lies the 17 SDGs covering the 169 targets by constituting calls for urgent action in global partnership among developed and developing nations. Within this scope, countries acknowledge the imperative need to engage in strategies that simultaneously eradicate poverty and other deprivations, combat climate change, safeguard oceans, forests, and biodiversity, improve health and education, reduce inequality, and promote sustainable and climate-resilient economic growth. This article will briefly evaluate the various geographical, environmental, educational, and social dimensions of sustainable and climate-resilient socioeconomic development, considering the nexus between combating climate change and adaptation to climate change, as well as the adverse effects of climate change.

The main aim of this study is to explain periglacial processes on the summits of Mount Honaz (2571 m a.s.l.), define periglacial landforms, and determine the relationships between morphometric features and topographic factors. Mud circles, stony earth circles, non sorted steps, and non sorted stripes were identified on the summits of Mount Honaz. Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) and linear regression analyses were performed by taking metric measurements from 125 periglacial landforms to describe their morphometric features (length, width, height) of periglacial landforms and explain the relationships between them and topographic factors (elevation, slope). To explain the relationships between periglacial landforms and soil properties, soil samples from 11 periglacial landforms were taken and analysed. Periglacial landforms, which continue to develop on the summits of Mount Honaz today, have been evaluated with present climate data. Analysis of soil samples indicates a notable impact of parent material on the genesis of periglacial landforms. The high ratio of organic matter in mud circle and non sorted step landforms and the high lime ratio in stony earth circle landforms prove a strong relationship between the formation mechanisms of landforms and the soil properties. Furthermore, it is consistent with the findings obtained from the analysis that severe periglacial processes and washing and scavenging events are experienced more on the northern slopes.

Klasik Hünkâri güvercini, Türkiye’nin en önemli süs ve sergi güvercini ırklarından biridir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Hünkâri ırkını tanıtmak ve morfolojik özelliklerini incelemektir. 100 bireyde vücut uzunluğu, gaga uzunluğu, kanat açıklığı, tarsus, orta parmak uzunluğu, göğüs genişliği, kuyruk uzunluğu ölçülmüş, canlı ağırlık belirlenmiştir. Cinsiyetler arasındaki morfometrik farkların istatistiksel analizi için, ölçüm verilerine Bağımsız Örnekler t sınaması kapsamında Varyansların Eşitliği İçin Levene F sınaması ve Ortalamaların Eşitliği İçin Student t sınaması uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca Hünkâri yetiştiricileri ile yapılan görüşmelerde bu kuşlarda aranan morfolojik özelliklere ilişkin notlar alınmıştır. Klasik Hünkâri güvercinleri, küçük yapılı güvercin ırklarındandır. Dişi ve erkek Hünkâri bireylerinin gagalarının uzunluk ölçümleri dışındaki ölçülen niceliklerinin varyanslarında istatistiksel açıdan önemli bir fark belirlenmemiştir. Öte yandan vücut uzunluğu, kanat açıklığı, göğüs genişliği, kuyruk (telek) uzunluğu ve ergin canlı ağırlıklarının ortalamaları bakımından dişilerin değerleri erkeklere göre istatistiksel açıdan daha düşüktür (P≤0,05). Hünkârinin başının arkasındaki iğne tepesi ve orta boyla kısa arası gagası, göğsündeki gösterişli gül (fırfır) ve oldukça gür paçalı ayakları, tipik özelliklerindendir. Uluslararası literatürde beyaz gövdeye kanat ve kuyruk işlemeli olanlar satinette olarak bilinir; gövde işlemelilerine ise blondinette denir. Hünkâri güvercinleri hem tarihsel ve kültürel önemleri hem de günümüzde güvercin hobisini yapan kişileri renk, desen ve tipleri ile adeta büyülemeleri nedeniyle ve gelecek kuşakların da bu hayvanlardan hobi amaçlı olarak yararlanabilmeleri için korunup yaşatılmalıdır.

The main aims of the current study are to determine the morphological features of the periglacial landforms (non-sorted step, mud circle, stony earth circle, thufur, and congeliturbation) located on the Ilgaz Mountains, examine the physicochemical and mineralogical properties with pedological processes of the soils, and assess of the effects of climatic conditions controlling the development of landforms. The Ilgaz Mountains (2587 m a.s.l.), located in the Western Black Sea Region, within the Anatolian Mountains, are important in terms of periglacial landforms (mud circles, stony earth circles, thufurs, non-sorted steps, non-sorted stripes, congeliturbation deposits, and block currents). The descriptive statistics of 123 periglacial landforms measured by fieldworks were analyzed. The distribution of freezing and thawing in the Ilgaz Mountains throughout the year was evaluated, and it was found that freezing takes place between December and March, freezing-thawing takes place in April, May, October and November, and thawing takes place between June and October. Accoding to soil properties, organic matter content changes from 1.88% to 12.72% in non-sorted step soils, while it is between 2.03% and 12.24% in stony earth circle soils. The organic matter is observed to be close to congeliturbation deposits at lower ratios compared to non-sorted steps, stony earth circles and mud circles. The soil reactions on stony earth circles and non-sorted steps vary between slightly acidic and slightly alkaline. On the other hand, soil samples taken from the mud circles are different from those taken from the non-sorted steps and stony earth circles. Their soil reaction is acidic, and pH changes between 4.86 and 6.25. The lime content also varies between 2.81% and 32.08%, with an average of 12.02%. The texture properties of soils are dominantly loam and clay loam, as in the non-sorted steps, stony earth circles, and mud circles. Considering their mineralogical properties, the XRD study was carried out to determine the primer mineral types and abundance degrees of soils of periglacial landforms. Quartz, muscovite and albite minerals were found in soils in the stony earth circle, while quartz, muscovite, orthoclase and albite minerals were determined as primary minerals in soils formed on the thufur landforms.

The Eastern Mediterranean region is a major climate change hotspot. The island of Cyprus is likely to face increases in the frequency and intensity of hotter weather conditions and heatwaves in the near future. Studies conducted on the long-term temperature changes in Cyprus are very limited. Here, we present an updated and most detailed assessment of the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature series in North Cyprus for the period 1975–2021. Data obtained from the meterological stations of North Cyprus have been analysed using Mann–Kendal (MK) test and Theil–Sen slope estimator. Overall the mean minimum temperature trend ( T min ) showed the highest warming rate 0.61 (0.24 ≤ T min ≤ 0.99)°C decade −1 followed by the mean temperature trend ( T mean ) 0.38 (0.29 ≤ T mean ≤ 0.50) °C decade −1 and the mean maximum temperature trend ( T max ) 0.28 (0 ≤ T max ≤ 0.50) °C decade −1 . The magnitude of the warming trend observed in the overall mean minimum temperature of North Cyprus 0.61 °C decade −1 , is one of the fastest warming trends reported in the literature. A negative association was detected between the direction of prevailing winds of North Cyprus and the magnitude of increase in the mean temperature trends of the locations with coastal Mediterranean climate, which has pointed out the importance of prevailing winds regarding their cooling effect in coastal areas. The diurnal temperature range trend of North Cyprus indicates an apparent decrease (− 0.33 °C decade −1 ). The warming impact of urban heat island effect was detected in temperature trends of Nicosia in the Mesaoria plain. The information provided here is invaluable to consider in any climate assessment and adaptation plan in Cyprus. If the current warming trend persists into the future, it will devastatingly impact all sectors and natural systems in the region.

Cities have more adverse thermal comfort conditions than the rural and semi-rural areas around them. In this study, it is aimed to examine the spatial distribution of thermal comfort conditions in Diyarbakir, a historical city in the Southeastern Anatolia Region of Turkey. Thermal comfort can be defined as the state of people feeling comfortable or happy in their environment or thermal environment. Uncomfortable conditions lead to social, economic and physical negativities, especially to human health. Thermal comfort conditions were calculated with the Physiological Equivalent Temperature index obtained from the RayMan model using hourly measurement data for the 2015 – 2021 (7 years) period of four meteorological stations in the field. In the study, while 'cold' and 'cool' stresses are experienced in the winter season in Diyarbakır, 'warm', 'hot' and 'very hot' stresses were determined in the 5-month hot period of the year (May-September). Evaluations revealed that densely built urban areas in the city center (approximately 15%) have more unfavourable thermal conditions than low-density urban areas (approximately 30%) and rural areas (approximately 20%) around them. It is a vital necessity to design and plan with a contemporary smart geographical perspective to reduce the negative thermal conditions of cities and for sustainable healthy cities.

The aim of the study is to reveal geomorphological characteristics and evolution of the periglacial landforms occurred on the summit of the Kaz Dagi (in Turkish) characterised with a specific mountain environment developed under the dry summer subtropical Mediterranean climate. To reach this aim, morphoclimatic processes-characteristics and soil development of the Kaz Dagi district have been evaluated. Kaz Dagi (1774 m a.s.l.), which had been called as the Mount Ida in Greek Mythology, forms a physical geographic border between canakkale and Balikesir provinces. Periglacial landforms consisting of the non-sorted circles including mud circles and stony earth circles, non-sorted steps and cryoturbation terraces and block currents, are found in subalpine vegetation zone at upper boundary of Mount Ida. According to morphogenetic process analysis, on the summit of the Kaz Dagi, the dominant processes are freezing + freezing-thawing in the December-March period, freezing-thawing + weathering in the November and April months, and weat-hering in which frost is not effective in the April-November period. As for pedological processes and mineralogical characteristics of soils formed under the same climatic conditions but on different parent materials of various periglacial landforms, taxonomy of these soils was classified at the Entisol ordo described as young soils.

In this study, drought climatology and drought variability in the continental semi-arid and dry sub-humid Central Anatolia Region were analyzed using the annual and seasonal precipitation totals, Aridity Index (AI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), along with the long-term trends in their time-series. Trends in precipitation totals, 12-month SPI and annual AI series were statistically determined by applying the Mann–Kendall rank correlation test (M–K test) and its sequential analysis. The climatological probability of drought and wet events was evaluated according to different classes in the region. Annual AI values indicate that dry sub-humid climate was dominant from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s, and then semi-arid conditions were dominant from the mid-2000s to recent years. The climatological probability of monthly SPI values being severely dry is dominant mostly in the semi-arid and dry sub-humid central, south and east districts of the region. According to the M–K test, statistically significant decreasing trends were determined for annual total precipitation and the 12-month SPI series in Keskin, Pınarbaşı, Sarız, Ürgüp and Akşehir. Nonsignificant and statistically significant decreasing trends in spring precipitation were determined at approximately 67% of the stations and at Ilgaz, Kulu, Eskişehir, Keskin, Zara, Ürgüp and Sarız stations, respectively. With respect to the desertification in the Central Anatolia Region, the most vulnerable subregions for desertification processes are the Konya subregion and the Upper Kızılırmak subregion, mainly characterized by semi-arid and dry sub-humid environmental conditions.

Cities are highly vulnerable areas affected by climate change. For sustainable urbanization, it is of great importance to determine the thermal conditions in cities and to make predictions for the future. Therefore, in this study, the spatial distribution of the thermal comfort conditions in the city of Diyarbakır, located in the southeastern Turkey, during the hot period of the year is explained and predictions for the future are made. In the study, measurement data from meteorological stations and the data of the SSP-2 and SSP-5 scenarios were used. Thermal comfort conditions were determined according to the PET (physiological equivalent temperature) index using RayMan software. The ArcGIS 10.5 program was used for defining the spatial distribution of thermal comfort conditions. As a result of the study, it is seen that the areas with dense construction and a low amount of green area in the old urbanized area, which is the central business district (CBD), have uncomfortable conditions. It is predicted that uncomfortable areas will increase in the near and distant future and threaten human health. For climate-resilient, healthy, and comfortable cities that can adapt to adverse effects of climate change, urban design and planning should be carried out with a holistic perspective.