Background: South Africa has high levels of alcohol consumption, and the availability of alcohol outlets plays a significant role in shaping drinking patterns. Alcohol outlets are typically concentrated in specific small areas, and their density and trading hours can influence alcohol-related harm. Several studies have shown that greater outlet density and extended trading hours are linked to higher levels of alcohol consumption and associated harm. However, community-centred approaches to mapping these factors are less common, especially in low- to middle- income countries (LMICs) such as South Africa. Aim: To test the feasibility of participatory mapping of alcohol availability, to map this availability and gain stakeholder and community views in selected South African communities. Methods: This mixed-method study included desktop research to identify known data sources for licensed alcohol outlets; geo-location and mapping of alcohol outlets by local community mappers; and focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs) with community representatives. Study findings: Alcohol outlets were densely distributed within residential areas, a large proportion of surveyed alcohol outlets were unlicensed, several had long trading times, many opening seven days a week in contravention of municipal by-laws. Spatial analysis showed marked variation in alcohol outlet density across zones, with several high-density hotspots. Outlet density per 1,000 population was substantially higher in Thembalethu than in Ga-Rankuwa. Community voices revealed that alcohol accessibility, long outlet trading times, outlet density, and poor licensing and enforcement contributed to alcohol’s ubiquitous availability. Conclusion: Participatory, community-centred mapping is a feasible and valuable approach for mapping alcohol availability. Findings highlight high outlet density, widespread unlicensed and informal sales, and the need for stronger regulation and enforcement alongside community involvement in mapping, monitoring, and supporting alcohol regulations.

South Africa is faced with a high HIV and STI prevalence and incidence, respectively, with pockets of high burden areas driving these diseases. Localised monitoring of the HIV epidemic and STI endemic would enable more effective targeted prevention strategies. We assessed spatial variations in curable STI incidence among a cohort of women enrolled in HIV prevention clinical trials between 2002 and 2012. STI incidence rates from 7557 South African women enrolled in five HIV prevention trials were geo-mapped using participant household GPS coordinates. Age and period standardised incidence rates were calculated for 43 recruitment areas and Bayesian conditional autoregressive areal spatial regression (CAR) was used to identify significant patterns and spatial patterns of STI infections in recruitment communities. Overall age and period standardised STI incidence rate were estimated as 15 per 100 PY and ranged from 6 to 24 per 100 PY. We identified five significant STI high risk areas with higher-than-expected incidence of STIs located centrally (three-locations) and southern neighbouring areas of Durban (two-locations). Younger age (<25), not married/cohabitating, parity <3 and poor education were all significant correlates of high STI communities. Findings demonstrate sustained STI incidence rates across the greater Durban area. The role of STI incidence in HIV acquisition in high HIV endemic areas need to be revisited as current highly effective PrEP interventions do not protect from STI acquisition. In these settings there is an urgent need for integrative HIV and STI prevention and treatment services.

After decades of research, South African women continue to have the highest burden of HIV in the world. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of marital status on HIV using population and community-level data sources. We included data 13,469 and 5682 South African women who participated to South African HIV behavioural surveys in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively. HIV prevalence and incidence rates were significantly higher among single/not-cohabiting women compared to those married/cohabiting with a partner in all survey participants (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.60 and 1.58 in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively). A quarter of the HIV diagnoses were attributed to those who were single/not-cohabiting women (population attributable risk (PAR%): 25% and 24%, respectively). More than 40% of the HIV infections were exclusively associated with single women (PAR%: 42%, 95% CI: 33%, 51%). Our results provided strong evidence for the profound impact of marital status on excess HIV infection rates. Targeting and reaching single/not-cohabiting women with multiple risk factors can potentially play a crucial role in the trajectories of the epidemic.

BackgroundFor a country such as South Africa which is targeting malaria elimination, mobile and migrant populations pose a substantial risk to importation of malaria parasites. It has been hypothesized that halting cross-border movement of mobile and migrant populations will decrease the importation of malaria, however this option is not a politically, operationally, and financially viable prospect. It has social impacts as well, since families live on either side of the border and preventing travel will challenge family ties. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and closure of ports of entry (land and air) for non-essential travel into South Africa, a unique opportunity arose to test the hypothesis.MethodologyAn interrupted time series analysis was done to assess whether the post-lockdown trends (April-December 2020) in monthly reported imported and local cases differed from the pre-lockdown trends (January 2015-March 2020). The analysis was conducted separately for KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo provinces.ResultsOn average, imported cases were lower in the post-intervention period in all three provinces, and local cases were lower in Mpumalanga and Limpopo, though no results were statistically significant.ConclusionSince population movement continued after the travel restrictions were lifted, border screening with testing and treating should be considered for reducing parasite movement. Another option is reducing malaria cases at the source in neighbouring countries by implementing proven, effective vector and parasite control strategies and through a downstream effect reduce malaria entering South Africa.

Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to predict non-linear distributions of HIV prevalence and incidence based on semiparametric methods. The GAMs also provide smooth intensity maps by projecting the predicted HIV prevalence (or incidence) into the contour maps. Two sets of geo-coded data sources were used: (1) population-based cross-sectional data from 10,928 women who participated in four HIV behavioral surveys (2002-2017), (2) clinic-based longitudinal data from 7,557 women who resided in KwaZulu-Natal (2002-2016). Model estimated degrees of freedoms were 15.84,12.17,7.64 and 15.08 (20022012), indicating substantial spatial variations in HIV prevalence overtime. At localized-level these HIV incidence ranged from 15 to 18 per 100 person-year and scattered across the relatively homogeneous area within less than 100 km radius. These significant quantitative evidence were further supported by continuous-scale intensity maps. Our findings provided empirical and visual evidence for the changing face of the epidemic in South Africa using geospatial methods. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

To investigate the associations between self-reported condom use and HIV, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and pregnancy rates among women who enrolled in HIV biomedical intervention trials in South Africa. Data from 9948 women were analysed. Cox regression models were used to assess the associations between condom use and primary outcomes. Overall HIV, STI and pregnancy incidence rates were 7, 15 and 9 per 100 person/year. Women reporting condom use (65%) at last sex were younger, had more schooling, had fewer children and were more likely to be single/non-cohabiting, and hormonal injectables were the most common family planning method among women who reported using a condom at last sex. They were at increased risk of HIV (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.07, 1.43), STI (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05, 1.34) and pregnancy (aHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10, 1.40). In this population, self-reported condom users were identified as a proxy for a combination of high-risk sexual behaviours. They were associated with increased risks of HIV, STI and pregnancy incidence rates. These counterintuitive findings broadly indicate the women’s correct perception about their risky sexual behaviours which may have led them to use condoms. Our findings can have significant implications in clinical research settings by assisting in recruitment and monitoring strategies.

Purpose Women's choice of contraceptive can have broader implications and may play a significant role in shaping their sexual practices. We aim to identify the characteristics of women who use hormonal injectables and those at high-risk of HIV infection. We also quantify the population-level impact of their shared characteristics on HIV incidence rates. Materials and methods Data from 9948 women who enrolled in six-HIV prevention trials conducted in South Africa (2002-2016) were included. We used logistic and Cox regression models and estimated the population-level impact of the use of injectables on HIV incidence in the multifactorial-model setting. Results Using hormonal injectables were associated with increased risk of HIV infection (adjusted Hazard ratio (aHR):1.51, 95% CI:1.22, 1.86). At the population level less than 20% of the infections were associated with injectable contraceptives among younger women (i.e., less than 35 years of age). Factors including being single/not-cohabiting, using condoms at last sex, partner-related factors, and STI diagnosis were all identified as shared characteristics of women who preferred using hormonal injectables and those at high-risk of HIV infection. At the population level, these factors were associated with more than 50% of the infections among women younger than 35 years of age. Conclusions Our analysis presented evidence for the overlapping characteristics of the women who used hormonal injectables and those at high-risk of HIV infection. These findings reinforce the importance of comprehensive contraceptive counselling to women about the importance of dual protection, such as male condoms and hormonal contraceptives use.

Fine scale geospatial analysis of HIV infection patterns can be used to facilitate geographically targeted interventions. Our objective was to use the geospatial technology to map age and time standardized HIV incidence rates over a period of 10 years to identify communities at high risk of HIV in the greater Durban area. HIV incidence rates from 7557 South African women enrolled in five community-based HIV prevention trials (2002–2012) were mapped using participant household global positioning system (GPS) coordinates. Age and period standardized HIV incidence rates were calculated for 43 recruitment clusters across greater Durban. Bayesian conditional autoregressive areal spatial regression (CAR) was used to identify significant patterns and clustering of new HIV infections in recruitment communities. The total person-time in the cohort was 9093.93 years and 613 seroconversions were observed. The overall crude HIV incidence rate across all communities was 6·74 per 100PY (95% CI: 6·22–7·30). 95% of the clusters had HIV incidence rates greater than 3 per 100PY. The CAR analysis identified six communities with significantly high HIV incidence. Estimated relative risks for these clusters ranged from 1.34 to 1.70. Consistent with these results, age standardized HIV incidence rates were also highest in these clusters and estimated to be 10 or more per 100 PY. Compared to women 35+ years old younger women were more likely to reside in the highest incidence areas (aOR: 1·51, 95% CI: 1·06–2·15; aOR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1·19–2·14 and aOR: 1·62, 95% CI: 1·2–2·18 for < 20, 20–24, 25–29 years old respectively). Partnership factors (2+ sex partners and being unmarried/not cohabiting) were also more common in the highest incidence clusters (aOR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.25–1.75 and aOR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.28–1.84 respectively). Fine geospatial analysis showed a continuous, unrelenting, hyper HIV epidemic in most of the greater Durban region with six communities characterised by particularly high levels of HIV incidence. The results motivate for comprehensive community-based HIV prevention approaches including expanded access to PrEP. In addition, a higher concentration of HIV related services is required in the highest risk communities to effectively reach the most vulnerable populations.

South Africa has the highest burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in the world. There is also growing evidence that an individual’s risk of contracting HIV is increased by the presence of other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The primary objective of this study was to examine the association between the prevalence of STIs in a cohort of South African women who enrolled in HIV prevention trials (2002–2012). The current study linked the individual factors with the community-level characteristics using geo-referencing. These multi-level data were analyzed in generalized additive mixed models settings. In the multivariate logistic regression model, younger age (odds ratio [OR] 4.30, 95% CI 3.20, 5.77 and OR 2.72, 95% CI 2.02, 3.66 for age < 25 and 25–29, respectively); being single/not cohabiting (OR 4.57, 95% CI 3.18, 6.53), two + sex partners (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.18,1.80); parity < 2 (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.53, 2.72), parity = 2 (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.37, 2.48), and using injectables (contraceptive) (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.13, 2.06) were all significantly associated with increased prevalence of STIs. Women who resided in the communities with high proportions of female headed-households were also significantly at higher risk for STIs (OR 1.20, p = .0025). Because these factors may reflect characteristics of the larger groups who share similar cultural norms and social environments, they can provide considerable insight into the spread of STIs. Prevention strategies based on individual and community-level drivers of STIs are likely to be the most effective means of targeting and reaching those at greatest risk of infection. This strategy has the potential to play a significant role in the epidemic’s trajectory.

BackgroundAs surveillance is a key strategy for malaria elimination in South Africa, ensuring strong surveillance systems is a National Department of Health priority. Historically, real time tracking of case trends and reporting within 24ha requirement in South Africa's National surveillance guidelineshas not been possible. To enhance surveillance and response efficiency, a mobile surveillance tool, MalariaConnect, was developed using Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) technology. It was rolled out in health facilities in malaria endemic areas of South Africa to provide 24-h reporting of malaria cases.MethodsTo evaluate the efficiency of the mobile tool to detect an outbreak data were extracted from the paper based and MalariaConnect reporting systems in Bushbuckridge from 1 January to 18 June 2017. These data were subject to time series analyses to determine if MalariaConnect provided sufficient data reliably to detect increasing case trends reported through the paper system. The Chi squared test was used to determine goodness of fit between the following indicator data generated using MalariaConnect and paper reporting systems: timeliness, completeness, and precision.ResultsMalariaConnect adequately tracked case trends reported through the paper system. Timeliness of reporting increased significantly using MalariaConnect with 0.63days to notification compared to 5.65days using the paper-system (p<0.05). The completeness of reporting was significantly higher for the paper system (100% completion; p<0.05), compared to confirmed MalariaConnect cases (61%). There was a moderate association between data precision and the reporting system (p<0.05). MalariaConnect provided an effective way of reliably and accurately identifying the onset of the malaria outbreak in Bushbuckridge.ConclusionTimeliness significantly improved using MalariaConnect and in a malaria elimination setting, can be used to markedly improve case investigation and response activities within the recommended 72-h period. Although data completeness and precision were lower compared to paper reporting, MalariaConnect data can be used to trigger outbreak responses.

Background:Transmission is driving the global drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) epidemic; nearly three-quarters of drug-resistant TB cases are attributable to transmission. Geographic patterns of disease incidence, combined with information on probable transmission links, can define the spatial scale of transmission and generate hypotheses about factors driving transmission patterns.Methods:We combined whole-genome sequencing data with home Global Positioning System coordinates from 344 participants with extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, diagnosed from 2011 to 2014. We aimed to determine if genomically linked (difference of ≤5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) cases lived close to one another, which would suggest a role for local community settings in transmission.Results:One hundred eighty-two study participants were genomically linked, comprising 1084 case-pairs. The median distance between case-pairs' homes was 108 km (interquartile range, 64-162 km). Between-district, as compared to within-district, links accounted for the majority (912/1084 [84%]) of genomic links. Half (526 [49%]) of genomic links involved a case from Durban, the urban center of KwaZulu-Natal.Conclusions:The high proportions of between-district links with Durban provide insight into possible drivers of province-wide XDR-TB transmission, including urban-rural migration. Further research should focus on characterizing the contribution of these drivers to overall XDR-TB transmission in KwaZulu-Natal to inform design of targeted strategies to curb the drug-resistant TB epidemic.

It is widely acknowledged that modifications to existing control interventions are required if South Africa is to achieve malaria elimination. Targeting indoor residual spraying (IRS) to areas where cases have been detected is one strategy currently under investigation in northeastern South Africa. This seroprevalence baseline study, nested within a targeted IRS trial, was undertaken to provide insights into malaria transmission dynamics in South Africa and evaluate whether sero-epidemiological practices have the potential to be routinely incorporated into elimination programmes.

BACKGROUND:Drug-resistant tuberculosis threatens recent gains in the treatment of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection worldwide. A widespread epidemic of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis is occurring in South Africa, where cases have increased substantially since 2002. The factors driving this rapid increase have not been fully elucidated, but such knowledge is needed to guide public health interventions.METHODS:We conducted a prospective study involving 404 participants in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with a diagnosis of XDR tuberculosis between 2011 and 2014. Interviews and medical-record reviews were used to elicit information on the participants' history of tuberculosis and HIV infection, hospitalizations, and social networks. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates underwent insertion sequence (IS)6110 restriction-fragment-length polymorphism analysis, targeted gene sequencing, and whole-genome sequencing. We used clinical and genotypic case definitions to calculate the proportion of cases of XDR tuberculosis that were due to inadequate treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (i.e., acquired resistance) versus those that were due to transmission (i.e., transmitted resistance). We used social-network analysis to identify community and hospital locations of transmission.RESULTS:Of the 404 participants, 311 (77%) had HIV infection; the median CD4+ count was 340 cells per cubic millimeter (interquartile range, 117 to 431). A total of 280 participants (69%) had never received treatment for MDR tuberculosis. Genotypic analysis in 386 participants revealed that 323 (84%) belonged to 1 of 31 clusters. Clusters ranged from 2 to 14 participants, except for 1 large cluster of 212 participants (55%) with a LAM4/KZN strain. Person-to-person or hospital-based epidemiologic links were identified in 123 of 404 participants (30%).CONCLUSIONS:The majority of cases of XDR tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, an area with a high tuberculosis burden, were probably due to transmission rather than to inadequate treatment of MDR tuberculosis. These data suggest that control of the epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis requires an increased focus on interrupting transmission. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others.).

BACKGROUND:KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, has among the highest burden of XDR TB worldwide with the majority of cases occurring due to transmission. Poor access to health facilities can be a barrier to timely diagnosis and treatment of TB, which can contribute to ongoing transmission. We sought to determine the geographic distribution of XDR TB patients and proximity to health facilities in KwaZulu-Natal. METHODS:We recruited adults and children with XDR TB diagnosed in KwaZulu-Natal. We calculated distance and time from participants' home to the closest hospital or clinic, as well as to the actual facility that diagnosed XDR TB, using tools within ArcGIS Network analyst. Speed of travel was assigned to road classes based on Department of Transport regulations. Results were compared to guidelines for the provision of social facilities in South Africa: 5km to a clinic and 30km to a hospital. RESULTS:During 2011-2014, 1027 new XDR TB cases were diagnosed throughout all 11 districts of KwaZulu-Natal, of whom 404 (39%) were enrolled and had geospatial data collected. Participants would have had to travel a mean distance of 2.9 km (CI 95%: 1.8-4.1) to the nearest clinic and 17.6 km (CI 95%: 11.4-23.8) to the nearest hospital. Actual distances that participants travelled to the health facility that diagnosed XDR TB ranged from <10 km (n = 143, 36%) to >50 km (n = 109, 27%), with a mean of 69 km. The majority (77%) of participants travelled farther than the recommended distance to a clinic (5 km) and 39% travelled farther than the recommended distance to a hospital (30 km). Nearly half (46%) of participants were diagnosed at a health facility in eThekwini district, of whom, 36% resided outside the Durban metropolitan area. CONCLUSIONS:XDR TB cases are widely distributed throughout KwaZulu-Natal province with a denser focus in eThekwini district. Patients travelled long distances to the health facility where they were diagnosed with XDR TB, suggesting a potential role for migration or transportation in the XDR TB epidemic.

Background: The Lubombo Spatial Development Initiative (LSDI) was a tri-country project between South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique with the aim of accelerating socio-economic development in the region. The malaria component of the project was introduced to decrease the transmission of malaria in the region. This goal was met but with termination of this project resulted in an upsurge of malaria cases in the sub-region mainly as a result of migration from high transmission areas to low transmission ones. The movement of people across borders in southern Africa remains a challenge in sustaining malaria control and elimination.Methods: Malaria case data for Swaziland and South Africa were obtained from their respective national Malaria Information Systems. Data for Mozambique was obtained from the Mozambican Ministry of Health. Data obtained during the course of the LSDI project was compared to the case data post the termination of the LSDI.Results: The 12-year period of the LSDI showed a substantial decrease in disease burden amongst the three countries involved when compared to the baseline year of 2000. The decrease in malaria cases was 99 % in South Africa and 98 % in Swaziland. Malaria prevalence in Mozambique decreased by 85 % over the same period. However, after the LSDI ended, between 2012 and 2014, there was an upward trend in case data that was counter to the goal of elimination.Conclusion: South Africa and Swaziland benefitted from the LSDI and were able to sustain malaria control and progress to the stage of elimination. Mozambique could not sustain the gains made during the LSDI and case numbers increased. Technical and financial resources are key challenges for malaria control and elimination interventions.

Background: With a sustained national malaria incidence of fewer than one case per 1000 population at risk, in 2012 South Africa officially transitioned from controlling malaria to the ambitious goal of eliminating malaria within its borders by 2018. This review assesses the progress made in the 3 years since programme re-orientation while highlighting challenges and suggesting priorities for moving the malaria programme towards elimination.Methods: National malaria case data and annual spray coverage data from 2010 until 2014 were assessed for trends. Information on surveillance, monitoring and evaluation systems, human and infrastructure needs and community malaria knowledge was sourced from the national programme mid-term review.Results: Malaria cases increased markedly from 6811 in 2013 to 11,711 in 2014, with Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces most affected. Enhanced local transmission appeared to drive malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, while imported malaria cases accounted for the majority of cases reported in Mpumalanga Province. Despite these increases only Vhembe and Mopani districts in Limpopo Province reported malaria incidences more than one case per 1000 population at risk by 2014. Over the review period annual spray coverage did not reach the recommended target of 90 % coverage, with information gaps identified in parasite prevalence, artemether-lumefantrine therapeutic utilization, asymptomatic/sub-patent carriage, drug efficacy, vector distribution and insecticide resistance.Conclusions: Although South Africa has made steady progress since adopting an elimination agenda, a number of challenges have been identified. The heterogeneity of malaria transmission suggests interventions in Vhembe and Mopani districts should focus on control, while in KwaZulu-Natal Province eliminating transmission foci should be prioritized. Cross-border initiatives with neighbouring countries should be established/strengthened as a matter of urgency since malaria importation poses a real threat to the country's elimination efforts. It is also critical that provincial programmes are adequately resourced to effectively conduct the necessary targeted elimination activities, informed by current vector/parasite distribution and resistance data. More sensitive methods to detect sub-patent infections, primaquine as a transmission-blocking drug, and alternative vector control methods need to be investigated. Knowledge gaps among malaria health workers and affected communities should be identified and addressed.

The substantial impact of cross-border collaborative control efforts on the burden of malaria in southern Africa has previously been demonstrated through the successes of the Lubombo Spatial Development Initiative. Increases in malaria cases recorded in the three partner countries (Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland) since termination of that programme in 2011 have provided impetus for the resuscitation of cooperation in the form of the MOSASWA malaria initiative. MOSASWA, launched in 2015, seeks to renew regional efforts to accelerate progress towards malaria elimination goals already established in the region. National malaria programmes, together with developmental partners, academic institutions and the private sector seek to harmonize policy, strengthen capacity, share expertise, expand access to elimination interventions particularly amongst migrant and border population groups, mobilize resources and advocate for long-term funding to ultimately achieve and sustain malaria elimination in the MOSASWA region.