Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

This first release of Prior Labs in relational learning shows our continued commitment to open science. We open-source three pieces of software that we expect to accelerate research in the field towards meaningful real-world impact. We aim to steer further development based on feedback from, and in collaboration with, the community. Given the early stage of development, our α-release targets researchers and early-adopting practitioners. Over the past years, a variety of datasets and tasks for relational learning have emerged, but the community has not converged on a reliable, reproducible way to compare different methods on these tasks. Our α-release, RelArena-α, provides a unified framework for running and comparing baselines on RelBench v1 by standardizing data loading, evaluation protocols, tuning regimes, and support for systems with custom tuning, inspired by established tabular benchmarks such as TabArena. We plan to work with the research community to further develop RelArena-α into a catalyst for progress in the relational learning community. We release the initial version of TabPFN-Rel, a purpose-built relational harness for TabPFN-3. Currently ranked first among models on RelArena-α, TabPFN-Rel makes key improvements upon RDBLearn. Beyond its ranking, TabPFN-Rel serves as a strong baseline, adding to the growing evidence that flattening a relational database into a single table remains competitive with specialized relational architectures on real-world tasks. To facilitate adoption of relational learning methods in research and industry, we release an initial α-version of our Relational Predictive Interface, RPI, an open-source, model-agnostic interface that enables early adopters to easily define problems on new databases and apply any model implemented in RelArena-α, including TabPFN-Rel, to these problems.

Progress in tabular machine learning has largely focused on increasingly sophisticated model architectures. At the same time, feature engineering remains a critical yet underexplored component of real-world modeling pipelines that is entirely absent from modern benchmarks, which creates an unquantified evaluation gap. In this work, we introduce TabPrep, a lightweight preprocessing pipeline composed of feature generators that are carefully designed to target three specific structural data patterns. We show that many widely used model classes exhibit predictable blind spots to these patterns and that systematic feature engineering alone can establish new peak performance. Across the TabArena benchmark, integrating TabPrep into model training and tuning consistently improves performance for tree-based, neural, linear, and foundation models, often surpassing gains achieved by model-centric innovations alone. TabPrep outperforms previous automated feature engineering approaches in performance, efficiency, and applicability across datasets, enabling integration into large-scale benchmarks. By releasing TabPrep (see https://github.com/atschalz/tabprep), we enable researchers to integrate feature engineering into their benchmarking setup, filling a longstanding gap in tabular evaluations.

Accurate forecasting with uncertainty quantification is critical in a variety of scientific applications ranging from epidemiology and economics to energy systems and earth sciences. Yet most forecasting models still need to be developed and trained separately for each domain-specific dataset. Time series foundation models (TSFMs) aim to remove this limitation and enable the application of the same model across domains through large-scale pretraining. However, existing TSFMs treat each time series independently and therefore cannot model interactions among time series and external drivers. Here, we introduce Chronos-2, a foundation model for zero-shot forecasting that models the interactions between multivariate time series and heterogeneous covariates, which commonly arise in scientific applications. The model infers relationships among time series directly from historical context and generates probabilistic forecasts without task-specific treatment. Across various benchmarks, Chronos-2 achieves state-of-the-art accuracy by improving skill scores by 5.2 percentage points relative to the strongest baselines and increasing win rates by 10 percentage points. Chronos-2 is also computationally efficient, generating forecasts for 100 time series in under one second on a single mid-range GPU, 50x and 1000x faster than the best task-specific point and probabilistic forecasters, respectively. In addition, we demonstrate its effectiveness in diverse scientific settings — including infectious-disease forecasting, macroeconomic modeling, carbon-flux prediction, and runoff simulation — where the model matches or surpasses specialized methods developed for each domain. These results show that a single pretrained model can capture structure shared across temporal systems. Importantly, our work lays a foundation toward a transition from task-specific forecasting to generalist forecasting systems across scientific and industrial domains.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly given the recent rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have narrow domain coverage or overlook important real-world settings, such as tasks with covariates. Additionally, their aggregation procedures often lack statistical rigor, making it unclear whether observed performance differences reflect true improvements or random variation. Many benchmarks also fail to provide infrastructure for consistent evaluation or are too rigid to integrate into existing pipelines. To address these gaps, we propose fev-bench, a benchmark comprising 100 forecasting tasks across seven domains, including 46 tasks with covariates. Supporting the benchmark, we introduce fev, a lightweight Python library for benchmarking forecasting models that emphasizes reproducibility and seamless integration with existing workflows. Usingfev, fev-bench employs principled aggregation methods with bootstrapped confidence intervals to report model performance along two complementary dimensions: win rates and skill scores. We report results on fev-bench for various pretrained, statistical and baseline models, and identify promising directions for future research.

With the growing popularity of deep learning and foundation models for tabular data, the need for standardized and reliable benchmarks is higher than ever. However, current benchmarks are static. Their design is not updated even if flaws are discovered, model versions are updated, or new models are released. To address this, we introduce TabArena, the first continuously maintained living tabular benchmarking system. To launch TabArena, we manually curate a representative collection of datasets and well-implemented models, conduct a large-scale benchmarking study to initialize a public leaderboard, and assemble a team of experienced maintainers. Our results highlight the influence of validation method and ensembling of hyperparameter configurations to benchmark models at their full potential. While gradient-boosted trees are still strong contenders on practical tabular datasets, we observe that deep learning methods have caught up under larger time budgets with ensembling. At the same time, foundation models excel on smaller datasets. Finally, we show that ensembles across models advance the state-of-the-art in tabular machine learning and investigate the contributions of individual models. We launch TabArena with a public leaderboard, reproducible code, and maintenance protocols to create a living benchmark available at https://tabarena.ai.

Since the seminal work of TabPFN, research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Without seeing any real-world data, models pretrained on purely synthetic datasets generalize remarkably well across diverse datasets, often using only a moderate number of in-context examples. This shifts the focus in tabular machine learning from model architecture design to the design of synthetic datasets, or, more precisely, to the prior distributions that generate them. Yet the guiding principles for prior design remain poorly understood. This work marks the first attempt to address the gap. We systematically investigate and identify key properties of synthetic priors that allow pretrained TFMs to generalize well. Based on these insights, we introduce Mitra, a TFM trained on a curated mixture of synthetic priors selected for their diversity, distinctiveness, and performance on real-world tabular data. Mitra consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TFMs, such as TabPFNv2 and TabICL, across both classification and regression benchmarks, with better sample efficiency.

Existing AutoML systems have advanced the automation of machine learning (ML); however, they still require substantial manual configuration and expert input, particularly when handling multimodal data. We introduce MLZero, a novel multi-agent framework powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) that enables end-to-end ML automation across diverse data modalities with minimal human intervention. A cognitive perception module is first employed, transforming raw multimodal inputs into perceptual context that effectively guides the subsequent workflow. To address key limitations of LLMs, such as hallucinated code generation and outdated API knowledge, we enhance the iterative code generation process with semantic and episodic memory. MLZero demonstrates superior performance on MLE-Bench Lite, outperforming all competitors in both success rate and solution quality, securing six gold medals. Furthermore, when evaluated on our Multimodal AutoML Agent Benchmark, which includes 25 more challenging tasks spanning diverse data modalities, MLZero outperforms the competing methods by a large margin with a success rate of 0.92 (+263.6\%) and an average rank of 2.28. Our approach maintains its robust effectiveness even with a compact 8B LLM, outperforming full-size systems from existing solutions.

Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forecasting, however, ensemble methods remain underutilized, with simple linear combinations still considered state-of-the-art. In this paper, we systematically explore ensembling strategies for time series forecasting. We evaluate 33 ensemble models-both existing and novel-across 50 real-world datasets. Our results show that stacking consistently improves accuracy, though no single stacker performs best across all tasks. To address this, we propose a multi-layer stacking framework for time series forecasting, an approach that combines the strengths of different stacker models. We demonstrate that this method consistently provides superior accuracy across diverse forecasting scenarios. Our findings highlight the potential of stacking-based methods to improve AutoML systems for time series forecasting.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Despite the emergence of principled methods for domain adaptation under label shift (where only the class balance changes), the sensitivity of these methods to natural-seeming covariate shifts remains precariously underexplored. Meanwhile, popular deep domain adaptation heuristics, despite showing promise on benchmark datasets, tend to falter when faced with shifts in the class balance. Moreover, it's difficult to assess the state of the field owing to inconsistencies among relevant papers in evaluation criteria, datasets, and baselines. In this paper, we introduce \textsc{RLSbench}, a large-scale benchmark for such \emph{relaxed label shift} settings, consisting of 11 vision datasets spanning $>$200 distribution shift pairs with different class proportions. We evaluate 12 popular domain adaptation methods, demonstrating a more widespread susceptibility to failure under extreme shifts in the class proportions than was previously known. We develop an effective meta-algorithm, compatible with most deep domain adaptation heuristics, that consists of the following two steps: (i) \emph{pseudo-balance} the data at each epoch; and (ii) adjust the final classifier with (an estimate of) target label distribution. Furthermore, we discover that batch-norm adaption of a model trained on source with aforementioned corrections offers a strong baseline, largely missing from prior comparisons. We hope that these findings and the availability of \textsc{RLSbench} will encourage researchers to include rigorously evaluate proposed methods in relaxed label shift settings. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ICLR2023Anon.

The success of self-supervised learning in computer vision and natural language processing has motivated pretraining methods on tabular data. However, most existing tabular self-supervised learning models fail to leverage information across multiple data tables and cannot generalize to new tables. In this work, we introduce XTab, a framework for cross-table pretraining of tabular transformers on datasets from various domains. We address the challenge of inconsistent column types and quantities among tables by utilizing independent featurizers and using federated learning to pretrain the shared component. Tested on 84 tabular prediction tasks from the OpenML-AutoML Benchmark (AMLB), we show that (1) XTab consistently boosts the generalizability, learning speed, and performance of multiple tabular transformers, (2) by pretraining FT-Transformer via XTab, we achieve superior performance than other state-of-the-art tabular deep learning models on various tasks such as regression, binary, and multiclass classification.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

Despite the emergence of principled methods for domain adaptation under label shift, their sensitivity to shifts in class conditional distributions is precariously under explored. Meanwhile, popular deep domain adaptation heuristics tend to falter when faced with label proportions shifts. While several papers modify these heuristics in attempts to handle label proportions shifts, inconsistencies in evaluation standards, datasets, and baselines make it difficult to gauge the current best practices. In this paper, we introduce RLSbench, a large-scale benchmark for relaxed label shift, consisting of $>$500 distribution shift pairs spanning vision, tabular, and language modalities, with varying label proportions. Unlike existing benchmarks, which primarily focus on shifts in class-conditional $p(x|y)$, our benchmark also focuses on label marginal shifts. First, we assess 13 popular domain adaptation methods, demonstrating more widespread failures under label proportion shifts than were previously known. Next, we develop an effective two-step meta-algorithm that is compatible with most domain adaptation heuristics: (i) pseudo-balance the data at each epoch; and (ii) adjust the final classifier with target label distribution estimate. The meta-algorithm improves existing domain adaptation heuristics under large label proportion shifts, often by 2--10\% accuracy points, while conferring minimal effect ($<$0.5\%) when label proportions do not shift. We hope that these findings and the availability of RLSbench will encourage researchers to rigorously evaluate proposed methods in relaxed label shift settings. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/acmi-lab/RLSbench.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) offers the promise of translating raw data into accurate predictions without the need for significant human effort, expertise, and manual experimentation. In this lecture-style tutorial, we demonstrate fundamental techniques that powers up multimodal AutoML. Different from most AutoML systems that focus on solving tabular tasks that contain categorical and numerical features, we consider supervised learning tasks on various types of data including tabular features, text, and image, as well as their combinations. Rather than technical descriptions of how individual ML models work, we emphasize how to best use models within an overall ML pipeline that takes in raw training data and outputs predictions for test data. A major focus of our tutorial is on automatically building and training deep learning models, which are powerful yet cumbersome to manage manually. Hardly any educational material describes their successful automation. Each topic covered in the tutorial is accompanied by a hands-on Jupyter notebook that implements best practices (which will be available on GitHub before and after the tutorial). Most of the code is adopted from AutoGluon (https://auto.gluon.ai/), a recent open-source AutoML toolkit that is both state-of-the-art and easy-to-use.

We design automated supervised learning systems for data tables that not only contain numeric/categorical columns, but text fields as well. Here we assemble 15 multimodal data tables that each contain some text fields and stem from a real business application. Over this benchmark, we evaluate numerous multimodal AutoML strategies, including a standard two-stage approach where NLP is used to featurize the text such that AutoML for tabular data can then be applied. We propose various practically superior strategies based on multimodal adaptations of Transformer networks and stack ensembling of these networks with classical tabular models. Beyond performing the best in our benchmark, our proposed (fully automated) methodology manages to rank 1st place (against human data scientists) when fit to the raw tabular/text data in two MachineHack prediction competitions and 2nd place (out of 2380 teams) in Kaggle’s Mercari Price Suggestion Challenge.

We consider the use of automated supervised learning systems for data tables that not only contain numeric/categorical columns, but one or more text fields as well. Here we assemble 18 multimodal data tables that each contain some text fields and stem from a real business application. Our publicly-available benchmark enables researchers to comprehensively evaluate their own methods for supervised learning with numeric, categorical, and text features. To ensure that any single modeling strategy which performs well over all 18 datasets will serve as a practical foundation for multimodal text/tabular AutoML, the diverse datasets in our benchmark vary greatly in: sample size, problem types (a mix of classification and regression tasks), number of features (with the number of text columns ranging from 1 to 28 between datasets), as well as how the predictive signal is decomposed between text vs. numeric/categorical features (and predictive interactions thereof). Over this benchmark, we evaluate various straightforward pipelines to model such data, including standard two-stage approaches where NLP is used to featurize the text such that AutoML for tabular data can then be applied. Compared with human data science teams, the fully automated methodology that performed best on our benchmark (stack ensembling a multimodal Transformer with various tree models) also manages to rank 1st place when fit to the raw text/tabular data in two MachineHack prediction competitions and 2nd place (out of 2380 teams) in Kaggle's Mercari Price Suggestion Challenge.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) can produce complex model ensembles by stacking, bagging, and boosting many individual models like trees, deep networks, and nearest neighbor estimators. While highly accurate, the resulting predictors are large, slow, and opaque as compared to their constituents. To improve the deployment of AutoML on tabular data, we propose FAST-DAD to distill arbitrarily complex ensemble predictors into individual models like boosted trees, random forests, and deep networks. At the heart of our approach is a data augmentation strategy based on Gibbs sampling from a self-attention pseudolikelihood estimator. Across 30 datasets spanning regression and binary/multiclass classification tasks, FAST-DAD distillation produces significantly better individual models than one obtains through standard training on the original data. Our individual distilled models are over 10x faster and more accurate than ensemble predictors produced by AutoML tools like H2O/AutoSklearn.