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This paper investigates the quantity of safe assets. First, we estimate that the average safe-asset ratio (ratio of safe to total assets) in 34 OECD countries was 37% in 2015. Further, we document that this ratio is relatively stable over time. Second, we build a heterogeneous-agent model with rare disasters and risk aversion coefficients that accounts for (i) the average level of the safe-asset ratio; (ii) the stability of this ratio over time; (iii) the observed risk-free rate of around 1.0% per year; and (iv) the empirical unlevered equity premium of about 4.2%. The model also replicates the observed highly concentrated distributions of wealth and equity. Finally, Ricardian equivalence holds in our model: issuing additional government bonds has no effect on rates of return and the net quantity of safe assets. Surprisingly, the crowding-out coefficient for private bonds with respect to public bonds is around -0.5, a value found in empirical studies.

This article presents a new solution method for dynamic equilibrium models. The solution is approximated by polynomials that zero the residual function and its derivatives at a given point x 0 . The algorithm is essentially a type of projection but is significantly faster, since the problem is highly sparse and can be easily solved by a Newton solver. The obtained solution is accurate locally in the neighborhood of x 0 . Importantly, a local solution can be obtained at any point of the state space. This makes it possible to solve models at points that are further away from the steady state.

This paper compares different solution methods for computing the equilibrium of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with rare disasters along the line of those proposed by Rietz (1988), Barro (2006}, Gabaix (2012), and Gourio (2012). DSGE models with rare disasters require solution methods that can handle the large non-linearities triggered by low-probability, high-impact events with sufficient accuracy and speed. We solve a standard New Keynesian model with Epstein-Zin preferences and time-varying disaster risk with perturbation, Taylor projection, and Smolyak collocation. Our main finding is that Taylor projection delivers the best accuracy/speed tradeoff among the tested solutions. We also document that even third-order perturbations may generate solutions that suffer from accuracy problems and that Smolyak collocation can be costly in terms of run time and memory requirements.

The World Bank Economic Review 32 (1) (English).

A safe asset's real value is insulated from shocks, including declines in GDP from rare macroeconomic disasters. However, in a Lucas-tree world, the aggregate risk is given by the process for GDP and cannot be altered by the creation of safe assets. Therefore, in the equilibrium of a representative-agent version of this economy, the quantity of safe assets will be nil. With heterogeneity in coefficients of relative risk aversion, safe assets can take the form of private bond issues from low-risk-aversion to high-risk-aversion agents. The model assumes Epstein-Zin/Weil preferences with common values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the rate of time preference. The model achieves stationarity by allowing for random shifts in coefficients of relative risk aversion. We derive the equilibrium values of the ratio of safe to total assets, the shares of each agent in equity ownership and wealth, and the rates of return …

This paper derives a fifth-order perturbation solution to DSGE models. The paper develops a new notation that reduces the notational complexity of high-order solutions and yields a faster code. The new notation consists of new matrix forms of high-order multivariate chain rules and a new representation of the model as a function of one vector variable. The algorithm that implements the new notation is between 3 and 55 times faster than Dynare++, depending on model size and solution order.

The gravity model has provided a tractable empirical framework to account for bilateral flows not only of manufactured goods, as in the case of merchandise trade, but also of financial flows. In particular, recent literature has emphasized the role of information costs in preventing larger diversification of financial investments. This paper investigates the role of migration in alleviating information imperfections between home and host countries. We show that the impact of migration on financial flows is strongest where information problems are more acute (that is, for more informational sensitive investments and between more culturally distant countries) and for the type of migrants that are most able to enhance the flow of information, namely, skilled migrants. We interpret these differential effects as additional evidence pointing to the role of information in generating home-bias and as new evidence of the role of migration in reducing information frictions between countries.

This paper presents a global solution method to DSGE models, which does not depend on a grid and hence does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The method enables to approximate the Taylor series of the policy function at any arbitrary point of the state space. Once the Taylor series is approximated at a given point, the constant term of the series provides the model solution at that point. Since the solution is not based on a grid, the computational costs are significantly lower compared to grid-based methods, because the model is solved only at points of interests (e.g. along a simulation path). Accuracy is high, compared to other methods, and it improves significantly by discretizing time into short periods.

Migration facilitates the flow of information between countries, thereby reducing informational frictions that potentially hamper cross-country financial flows. Using a gravity model, migration is found to be highly correlated with financial flows from the migrant's host country to her home country. The correlation is strongest where information problems are more acute (e.g., between culturally more distant countries), for asset types that are more informational sensitive, and for the type of migrants that are most able to enhance the flow of information on their home countries, namely, skilled migrants. These differential effects are interpreted as evidence for the role of migration in reducing information frictions between countries.

This paper studies the impact of shocks to banks’ balance sheets on real economic activity. The sample consists of 18 OECD countries observed annually from 1979 to 2003. Using the Rajan–Zingales method, I find that industries that depend more heavily on external finance respond more strongly to bank income shocks, suggesting that banking shocks propagate to the real economy. The bank effect lasts for 2 years, but it is economically significant mainly for large shocks, which are relatively rare. Similar findings are obtained by comparing durable versus non-durable goods and by estimating aggregate bank effects.

This paper explains the emergence of liquidity traps in the aftermath of large-scale financial crises, as happened in the US 1930s, Japan 1990s and recently in the US and Europe. The paper introduces a new balance sheet channel that links equity capital to the risk-free interest rate. When equity capital falls, bankruptcy risks rise. Firms become more vulnerable to external shocks, which makes financial disasters more likely to happen. Consequently, demand for safe assets increases, and the interest rate falls to the lower bound. Simulations show that the interest rate may stay at the lower bound for a long time.

This paper tells the story of how paper money evolved as a result of lending by banks. While lending commodity money requires holding large reserves of commodity money to ensure liquidity, issuing convertible paper money reduces these costs significantly. The paper also examines the possibility of issuing inconvertible notes and shows that while they further reduce the cost of borrowing they also have adverse effects on the stability of the banking system. As a result, governments often intervened, either outlawing the issuance of such notes, or monopolizing them for themselves by issuing fiat money. The paper examines the process of creation of paper money, but also sheds light on more general issues, like the relation between money and financial intermediation.

This paper explains the emergence of liquidity traps in the aftermath of large-scale financial crises. It establishes a link between the equity capital of the corporate sector and the risk-free interest rate. When equity capital falls, the risk-free interest rate declines because bonds become riskier and investors seek safer assets. If the fall in equity capital is too large, the risk-free interest rate drops to its lower bound creating a liquidity trap. The model suggests that bailout programs injecting capital into the corporate sector may help pushing the economy out of the trap.