First posted June 5, 2023 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey425 Jordan RoadTroy, NY 12180–8349 The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Suffolk County Water Authority, evaluated the groundwater-flow characteristics and aquifer properties of the North Magee Street well field north of the village of Southampton, New York. Characteristics and properties included groundwater-flow direction, potential groundwater-contributing areas to the well field production wells, and aquifer transmissivity and storage. The groundwater flow and aquifer properties were also evaluated to allow Suffolk County Water Authority to better assess the potential source of dissolved halocarbons (refrigerants, such as chlorofluorocarbons).The well field production wells are screened in the upper glacial aquifer and an observation well is screened in the Magothy aquifer. Based on depth and available logs, groundwater from wells screened in the upper glacial aquifer was classified as under water-table (unconfined) conditions, and groundwater from wells screened in the Magothy aquifer was classified as being under semiconfined conditions.Groundwater flows radially to the well field during production and in a northwesterly direction under the effect of the regional flow regime. A previously published particle tracking analysis identified the following recharge contributing areas nearby the well field: (1) contributing areas to surface-water bodies of the Peconic Estuary, (2) contributing areas to surface-water bodies of the South Shore Estuary Reserve, (3) a contributing area to the Atlantic Ocean, and (4) a contributing area to another Suffolk County Water Authority well field. Five other pumping well contributing areas were identified within the study area, including those of various wells pumped for golf-course irrigation.Analysis of drawdown and recovery data collected during the multiple-well aquifer test, through the application of a Neuman analytical model, provided estimates of upper glacial aquifer characteristics and properties. Inclusion of lateral aquifer boundaries was not necessary for the analysis to result in satisfactory matches with the observed water-level responses. Aquifer transmissivity was estimated to be 170,000 feet squared per day. Storativity was estimated to be 0.02 (dimensionless), and specific yield was estimated to be 0.08 (dimensionless), consistent with the inferred degree of confinement and well field characteristics.

First posted July 16, 2021 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey425 Jordan RoadTroy, NY 12180–8349 The fresh groundwater system at Fire Island National Seashore in New York is one of the natural resources that is most vulnerable to climate change; the various federally listed threatened or endangered species that live on Fire Island, including the piping plover, roseate tern shorebird, and seabeach amaranth may be affected by changes in the groundwater system. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model to simulate climate-change-related changes in depth to the water table and depth to freshwater/saltwater interfaces on Fire Island. An existing SEAWAT three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was converted to a MODFLOW–NWT three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model with the Seawater Intrusion (SWI2) package and recalibrated using the UCODE_2005 automatic calibration software. The simulated groundwater divide was found to be skewed strongly toward the ocean shore in response to the modeled wave setup and tidal pumping overheight.Effects of climate change include sea-level rise and changes in groundwater recharge rates. Sea-level rise scenarios included specified uniform steady states at 0.2-, 0.4-, and 0.6-meter increases above the 2015 level, applied to the existing topography. A high-recharge scenario was created by increasing 2015 recharge rates by 10 percent. Under all scenarios except the low-recharge scenario, the depth to the water table and the thickness of the unsaturated zone decreased. The thickness of the freshwater lens decreased under every scenario. Resulting maps were generated on a 25-meter grid and indicate changes in areas where natural resources may be vulnerable because of projected climate changes.

First posted October 1, 2021 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey425 Jordan RoadTroy, NY 12180–8349 To assist resource managers and planners in developing informed strategies to address nitrogen loading to coastal water bodies of Long Island, New York, the U.S. Geological Survey and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation initiated a program to delineate areas contributing groundwater to coastal water bodies by assembling a comprehensive dataset of areas contributing groundwater, travel times, and groundwater discharges to streams, lakes, marine surface waters, and subsea discharge boundaries. Steady-state, 25-layer regional, three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow models of average regional hydrologic conditions were used for particle-tracking analysis to delineate areas contributing groundwater to 843 water bodies. Two steady-state conditions were simulated: recent conditions from 2005 to 2015 and predevelopment conditions of about 1900. About 14 million particles were evenly distributed across the water table and tracked forward to discharge zones. Using a uniform porosity of 25 percent, simulated recent condition travel times ranged from less than 2 years to greater than 10,000 years and were visualized in 11 travel time intervals. About 85 percent of particle travel times from the water table to points of discharge are less than 100 years. Simulated particle-tracking ending zones represented 843 receiving water bodies, based on the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation water body inventory and priority water bodies list. Areal delineation of travel-time intervals and areas contributing groundwater to water bodies were generated and are summarized with total groundwater outflow for each water body.

First posted December 16, 2020 For additional information, contact: Director, New England Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey10 Bearfoot RoadNorthborough, MA 01532 A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for the aquifer system of Long Island, New York, to evaluate (1) responses of the hydrologic system to changes in natural and anthropogenic hydraulic stresses, (2) the subsurface distribution of groundwater age, and (3) the regional-scale distribution of groundwater travel times and the source of water to fresh surface waters and coastal receiving waters. The model also provides the groundwater flow components used to define model boundaries for possible inset models used for local-scale analyses.The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation uses the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent steady-state conditions for average groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge for 2005–15. The particle-tracking algorithm MODPATH, which simulates advective transport in the aquifer, was used to estimate groundwater age, delineate the areas at the water table that contribute recharge to coastal and freshwater bodies, and estimate total travel times of water from the water table to discharge locations.A three-dimensional, 1-meter (3.3-foot) topobathymetric model was used to determine land-surface altitudes for the island and seabed altitudes for the surrounding coastal waters. The mapped extents and surface altitudes of major geologic units were compiled and used to develop a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework of the aquifer system, including aquifers and confining units. Lithologic data from deep boreholes and previous aquifer-test results were used to estimate the three-dimensional distribution of hydraulic conductivity in principal aquifers. Natural recharge from precipitation was estimated for 2005–15 using a modified Thornthwaite-Mather methodology as implemented in a soil-water balance model. Components of anthropogenic recharge—wastewater return flow, storm water inflow, and inflow from leaky infrastructure—also were estimated for 2005–15. Groundwater withdrawals for various sources, including public water supply, industrial, remediation, and agricultural, were compiled or estimated for the same period.These data were incorporated into the model development to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and initial hydraulic properties of the regional aquifers and confining units within the Long Island aquifer system. Average hydraulic conditions—water levels and streamflows—for 2005–15 were estimated using existing data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. Model inputs were adjusted to best match average hydrologic conditions using inverse methods as implemented in the parameter-estimating software PEST. The calibrated model was used to simulate average hydrologic conditions in the aquifer system for 2005–15.About 656 cubic feet per second of water was withdrawn on average annually for 2005–15 for water supply and an average of about 349 cubic feet per second of water recharged the aquifer annually from return flow and leaky infrastructure. Parts of New York City have drawdowns exceeding 25 feet, mostly because of urbanization and associated large decreases in recharge rates. Large areas in the western part of the island have drawdowns exceeding 10 feet, mostly from large groundwater withdrawals and sewering, which largely eliminates wastewater return flow. Water-table altitudes in eastern parts of the island increased by more than 2 feet in some areas as a result of wastewater return flow in unsewered areas and changes in land use. Changes in streamflows show a similar pattern as water-table altitudes. Streamflows generally decrease in western parts of the island where there are large drawdowns and increase in eastern parts of the island where water-table altitudes increase.

First posted November 20, 2020 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey425 Jordan RoadTroy, NY 12180–8349 A steady-state three-dimensional groundwater-flow model based on present conditions is coupled with the particle-tracking program MODPATH to assess the fate and transport of volatile organic-compound plumes within the Magothy and upper glacial aquifers in southeastern Nassau County, New York. Particles are forward tracked from locations within plumes defined by surfaces of equal concentration. Particles move toward ultimate well capture and discharge to the general head and drain boundaries representing natural receptors in the models. Because rates of advection within coarse-grained sediments typically exceed 0.1 foot per day, mechanisms of dispersion and diffusion were assumed to be negligible. Resulting particle pathlines are influenced by hydrogeologic framework features and the interplay of nearby hydrologic stresses. Simulated hydrologic effects include cones of depression near pumping wells and water-table mounding near points of treated water recharge; however, remedial pumping amounts are balanced by treated-water return, and net effects at distant regional boundaries, including freshwater/saltwater interfaces, are minor.Once a steady-state model was developed and calibrated, eight hypothetical remedial scenarios were evaluated to hydraulically contain the volatile organic-compound plumes. Specifically, the remedial scenarios were optimized to achieve full containment by altering the pumping-well locations, adjusting the pumping rates, and adjusting the discharge locations and rates. Based on the results, total hypothetical extraction rates varied from about 5,462 gallons per minute during an anticipated near-future condition to about 13,340 gallons per minute during full hydraulic containment of all site-related compounds identified by the New York State standards, criteria, and guidance for environmental investigations and cleanup. Targeting of high-concentration zones of the plume increases the total amount of remedial pumpage necessary to capture all parts of the plume but may decrease the total amount of time necessary to operate a remedial system. Simulated time frames of advective transport ranged from about 12 years to capture zones with elevated concentrations of volatile organic compounds (mean particle travel time plus the standard deviation of travel time) to more than 100 years to capture all zones.Groundwater-flow model analysis indicates that all the optimal plume-containment scenarios would have negligible effects on streams and the saltwater-freshwater interface along the south shore of Long Island. Massapequa, Bellmore, Seaman, and Seaford Creeks are represented by using MODFLOW drain-boundary conditions. Saltwater-freshwater interfaces are represented by using MODFLOW general head-boundary conditions where the Magothy aquifer discharges upward into saline groundwater across the Gardiners clay confining unit and the Lloyd aquifer discharges upward into saline groundwater across the Raritan confining unit.

First posted July 31, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 2045 Route 112, Building 4 Coram, NY 11727 A steady-state three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that simulates present conditions was coupled with the particle-tracking program MODPATH to delineate zones of contribution to wells pumping from the Magothy aquifer near a chlorinated volatile organic compound (VOC) plume. This modeling was part of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Naval Facilities Engineering Command to delineate groundwater near the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant in Bethpage, New York. Because rates of advection within the coarse-grained sediments typically exceed 0.1 foot per day, transport by dispersion and (or) diffusion was assumed to be negligible. Resulting zones of contribution are complex shapes, influenced by hydrogeologic features including confining beds and a basal gravel zone, and the interplay of nearby hydrologic stresses. The use of two particle tracking techniques identified zones of contribution to wells. Particles are backtracked from pumping well screens, and particles are forward tracked from the location of a VOC plume, as defined by surfaces of equal total VOC concentration. During any period of 5 years or less, about 1 to 3 percent of particles backtracked from pumping wells within a focus area intersected the 5-part per billion (ppb) VOC plume shell, indicating that the vast majority of particles were not sourced from the plume. During 5 years or less, none of the particles backtracked from pumping wells intersected the 50-ppb VOC plume shell. Forward-tracking techniques identified the fate of water within the VOC plume after 5 years as it moves toward ultimate well capture and (or) discharge to model constant head and drain boundaries. Out of 4,813 forward tracked particles started within the 50-ppb VOC plume shell, 1 forward-tracked particle was captured by well ANY8480. Out of 22,958 forward tracked particles started within the 5-ppb VOC plume shell, 100 were captured by production wells (less than 1 percent). The subset of forward pathlines that represent well plume capture are similar in number and shape to those of backtracked pathlines.Model simulations were conducted to assess uncertainties and improve understanding of how variability in hydraulic properties, pumpage rates, and maximum particle traveltime affect delineation of zones of contribution. By use of driller's' logs, a transitional probability approach generated nine alternative realizations of heterogeneity within the Magothy aquifer to assess uncertainty in model representation. Fine-grained sediments with low hydraulic conductivity were realized as laterally discontinuous, thickening towards the south, and comprising about 27 percent of the total aquifer volume within the transitional probability subgrid. Model simulations with alternative pumpage rates, porosity terms, and alternative maximum particle traveltime were also used to demonstrate how the size and shape of zones of contribution may vary.

First posted August 16, 2018 For additional information, contact: Director, Virgina Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey1730 East Parham RoadRichmond, VA 23228 The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service, has investigated the hydrology of the Great Dismal Swamp (Swamp) National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) in Virginia and North Carolina and developed a three-dimensional numerical model to simulate groundwater and surface-water hydrology. The model was developed with MODFLOW-NWT, a USGS numerical groundwater flow modeling program, in combination with the Surface-Water Routing Process, a software package that simulates dynamic surface-water flows, water control structure management, and groundwater/surface-water interactions.The steady-state model was calibrated to average spring conditions by using automated parameter estimation software (PEST) to reduce simulation errors and assess model parameter sensitivity. The model was then used to simulate wet and dry climatic conditions and a variety of hypothetical scenarios in which water levels in the Swamp were raised and lowered by simulated management of water control structures. Results of the model simulations indicate that, under average spring conditions, precipitation is the primary water input (92%); surface-water (5%) and groundwater (3%) inflows make up the remainder. The primary outflow (or loss) is evapotranspiration (55%), with surface outflows (about 41%) and groundwater outflow (about 4%) making up the remainder.Simulated adjustment of water control structure weir levels demonstrates that groundwater levels are affected by water levels in adjacent ditches and that surface-water and groundwater levels can be controlled through management of water control structures, allowing the Refuge to better manage fire risks and preserve forested-wetland ecosystems in the Refuge. The 13 water control structures proposed in the simulated scenario representing possible future conditions effectively raised simulated water levels in the northeastern corner of the study area, a goal of the Refuge management.Results of this study demonstrate use of MODFLOW with the Surface-Water Routing Process for simulating water management options in peat wetlands and will help Refuge managers to better understand existing hydrologic conditions, assess the hydrologic effects of planned changes to water control structures, and apply the new simulation tool to guide water management on the Refuge.

First posted October 5, 2016 For additional information, contact: Director, New York Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 425 Jordan Road Troy, NY 12180 http://ny.water.usgs.gov To assist resource managers and planners in developing informed strategies to address nitrogen loading to coastal water bodies of Long Island, New York, the U.S. Geological Survey and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation initiated a program to delineate a comprehensive dataset of groundwater recharge areas (or areas contributing groundwater), travel times, and outflows to streams and saline embayments on Long Island. A four-layer regional three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model of hydrologic conditions from 1968 to 1983 was used to provide delineations of 48 groundwater watersheds on Long Island. Sixteen particle starting points were evenly spaced within each of the 4,000- by 4,000-foot model cells that receive water-table recharge and tracked using forward particle-tracking analysis modeling software to outflow zones. For each particle, simulated travel times were grouped by age as follows: less than or equal to 10 years, greater than 10 years and less than or equal to 100 years, greater than 100 years and less than or equal to 1,000 years, and greater than 1,000 years; and simulated ending zones were grouped into 48 receiving water bodies, based on the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Waterbody Inventory/Priority Waterbodies List. Areal delineation of travel time zones and groundwater contributing areas were generated and a table was prepared presenting the sum of groundwater outflow for each area.

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model is coupled with the particle-tracking program MODPATH to delineate zones of contribution to wells pumping from the Magothy aquifer and supplying water to a chlorinated volatile organic compound removal plant at site GM–38, Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant, Bethpage, New York. By use of driller’s logs, a transitional probability approach generated three alternative realizations of heterogeneity within the Magothy aquifer to assess uncertainty in model representation. Finer-grained sediments with low hydraulic conductivity were realized as laterally discontinuous, thickening towards the south, and comprising about 17 percent of the total aquifer volume. Particle-tracking evaluations of a steady state present conditions model with alternative heterogeneity realizations were used to develop zones of contribution of remedial pumping wells. Because of heterogeneity and high rates of advection within the coarse-grained sediments, transport by dispersion and (or) diffusion was assumed to be negligible. Resulting zones of contribution of existing remedial wells are complex shapes, influenced by heterogeneity of each realization and other nearby hydrologic stresses. The use of two particle tracking techniques helped identify zones of contribution to wells. Backtracking techniques and observations of points of intersection of backward-tracked particles at shells of the GM–38 Hot Spot, as defined by surfaces of equal total volatile organic compound concentration, identified the source of water within the GM–38 Hot Spot to simulated wells. Forward-tracking techniques identified the fate of water within the GM–38 Hot Spot, including well capture and discharge to model constant head and drain boundaries. The percentage of backward-tracked particles, started at GM–38 wells that were sourced from within the Hot Spot, varied from 72.0 to 98.2, depending on the Hot Spot delineation used (present steady state model and Magothy aquifer heterogeneity realization A). The percentage of forward-tracked particles that were captured by GM–38 wells varied from 81.1 to 94.6, depending on the Hot Spot delineation used, with the remainder primarily captured by Bethpage Water District Plant 4 production wells (present steady state model and Magothy aquifer heterogeneity realization A). Less than 1 percent of forward-tracked particles ultimately discharge at model constant head and drain boundaries. The differences between forward- and backward-tracked particle percentage ranges are due to some forward-tracked particles not being captured by GM–38 wells, and some backward-tracked particles not intersecting specific regions of the Hot Spot. During 2013, an aquifer test generated detailed time series of well pumping rates and corresponding water-level responses were recorded at numerous locations. These data were used to verify the present conditions steady state model and demonstrate the sensitivity of model results to transient-state changes.

A density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model of Manhasset Neck, Long Island, New York, was used to analyze (1) the effects of seasonal stress on the position of the freshwater/saltwater transition zone and (2) groundwater flowpaths. The following were used in the simulation: 182 transient stress periods, representing the historical record from 1920 to 2011, and 44 transient stress periods, representing future hypothetical conditions from 2011 to 2030. Simulated water-level and salinity (chloride concentration) values are compared with values from a previously developed two-stress-period (1905–1944 and 1945–2005) model. The 182-stress-period model produced salinity (chloride concentration) values that more accurately matched the observed salinity (chloride concentration) values in response to hydrologic stress than did the twostress-period model, and salinity ranged from zero to about 3 parts per thousand (equivalent to zero to 1,660 milligrams per liter chloride). The 182-stress-period model produced improved calibration statistics of water-level measurements made throughout the study area than did the two-stress-period model, reducing the Lloyd aquifer root mean square error from 7.0 to 5.2 feet. Decreasing horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities (fixed anisotropy ratio) of the Lloyd and North Shore aquifers by 20 percent resulted in nearly doubling the simulated salinity(chloride concentration) increase at Port Washington observation well N12508. Groundwater flowpath analysis was completed for 24 production wells to delineate water source areas. The freshwater/saltwater transition zone moved toward and(or) away from wells during future hypothetical scenarios.

Two ceiling collapses in the Retsof salt mine near Geneseo in upstate New York in spring 1994 resulted in the upward propagation of two columns of rubble through 600 feet of overlying shale and carbonate bedrock. This upward propagation formed a hydraulic connection between the lower confined aquifer (LCA) and the mine and allowed water from the aquifer and bedrock fracture zones that intersected the rubble columns to flow into the mine at a rate of 18,000 gallons per minute (gal/min) . All salt mining ceased in September 1995, and the mine was completely flooded by January 1996. The flow of water from the lower confined aquifer into the mine caused widespread drawdowns, and water levels in the aquifer declined by as much as 400 feet near the collapse area and by more than 50 feet at wells 7 miles to the north and south. Within 3 to 4 weeks of the collapses, water levels in about a dozen domestic and industrial wells had declined severely, and some wells went dry. Water levels in at least 58 wells in the lower and middle confined aquifers were affected by mine flooding. Groundwater in the upper unconfined aquifer and surface water in streams were unaffected by water-level drawdown, but channels of the Genesee River and Beards Creek were altered by land subsidence related to the mine collapse. Water levels recovered from 1996 through 2006, but the mine is now filled with about 15 billion gallons of saturated halite brine. The weight of the overlying rock and sediment is expected to cause the salt beds to deform and fill the mine cavity during the next several hundred years; this in turn could displace as much as 80 percent of the brine and cause it to move upward through the rubble chimneys, rendering the LCA unusable as a source of water supply. Saline water was detected in the LCA in 2002 but was found to be derived primarily from fractures in the limestone and shale units between the mine and the LCA, rather than from the mine. In September 2006, the mine company began a brine-mitigation project that entailed pumping five wells finished in limestone and shale units within the collapse areas to alter the flow gradient and thereby prevent further movement of brine and saline water into the LCA. The pumped brine was routed to an onsite desalination plant. At the same time, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in cooperation with the New York State Office of the Attorney General to construct numerical models to analyze the groundwater chemistry and delineate the directions of flow. Specific objectives of the study were to: * Assess the sources of salinity within the collapse area and identify the factors that control the movement and mixing of freshwater, saline waters from fracture zones, and brine; * Evaluate the likelihood that the pumping will induce anhydrite dissolution and lead to continued land subsidence; * Construct variable-density groundwater flow models to predict the effect of remedial pumping on salinity within the LCA; * Evaluate the effectiveness of remedial pumping in preventing the movement of saline water into the LCA; and * Predict the extent of brine migration 8 years after a hypothetical shutdown of all pumping in 2008. This report (1) summarizes the hydrogeologic setting and effects of mine flooding, (2) describes the geochemical and variable-density model simulations and their principal results, (3) discusses the implications of (a) continued pumping and desalination to protect the LCA and (b) a full shutdown of pumping after 2008, and (4) suggests further research that could lead to refinement of model predictions. Additional information may be found in Yager and others (2001 and 2009). These reports can be accessed at http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1611/ and http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1767/, respectively. A summary of simulation results can be accessed at http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/Coram/seawat/seawat.html.

The 2010 Bethpage groundwater-flow model (ARCADIS, 2010) was based on a steady state assumption. Although it is widely acknowledged that significant water-level changes have occurred in the past, the reviewed model does not represent changing water levels. The steady state approach limits the effectiveness of the following: 1. identification of sources of contamination, 2. analysis of model accuracy, 3. model calibration, and 4. simulations of future scenarios. Future plume movement was simulated in an incomplete manner through an unchanging groundwater-flow field. Available time-series information on temporal variation of factors affecting groundwater-flow dynamics includes: 1. public-supply pumping, 2. groundwater discharges from systems remediating volatile organic compound (VOC) plumes, 3. recharge and precipitation rates, and 4. water levels and streamflows. Transient phenomena that might be useful in future hypothetical simulations include pumping variations, redirection of containment-system waters for industrial use, and climate-change scenarios. Public-domain computer programs, U.S. Geological Survey guidance reports on transient-state calibration and uncertainty methods (Doherty and Hunt, 2010), and additional local and regional datasets are available to provide additional confidence in model evaluations and allow better evaluation of their limitations.

Ground water is the sole source of drinking water on the North Fork of eastern Long Island, N.Y., where the ground-water-flow system is susceptible to saltwater intrusion or upconing into water-supply wells because of heavy pumping. Concern also has been raised regarding the capability of the system to meet the expected future demand for freshwater. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Suffolk County Water Authority (SCWA), began a 4-year study in 1997 to evaluate the response of ground-water flow and the freshwater/saltwater interface within two flow systems (at Cutchogue and Greenport) to anticipated future pumping and recharge conditions. The study entails development of a numerical ground-water-flow model for each flow system. A geographic information system (GIS), which includes previous hydrogeologic data supplemented with new data obtained through exploratory drilling by the SCWA, is being used to facilitate model development. Compilation and interpretation of hydrogeologic data in a GIS has enabled detailed mapping of the hydrogeologic framework within the study area. Preliminary results from the exploratory drilling indicate that the Cutchogue flow system is hydraulically connected to the main body of Long Island through a narrow corridor within the water-table aquifer, but the Greenport flow system is hydraulically isolated from the rest of Long Island. A recent ground-water budget for the North Fork provides values for four major hydrologic components—recharge from precipitation, public-supply withdrawal, public-supply return flow, and agricultural withdrawal. Water-table maps from previous studies have been digitized into the GIS for use in model calibration. The models are being used to simulate the flow of freshwater and saltwater and the movement of the transition zone, simulated as a sharp interface, from predevelopment (pre-1940) through 1994 hydrologic conditions, and to simulate the future response of each flow system to a wide range of pumping conditions under average-recharge and drought scenarios. A graphical user interface (GUI) is being developed to facilitate model construction, calibration, and application. Preliminary model results support the concept of a hydraulic connection between the Cutchogue flow system and the Long Island mainland and the hydraulic isolation of the Greenport flow system. Model results describing the effects of pumping and recharge on ground-water flow and the position of the freshwater/saltwater interface will enable water-resource managers and suppliers to evaluate a broad range of water-supply management strategies to safely meet future demands, and provide information that can be used to delineate the source areas of supply wells and characterize contaminant transport within each flow system.

The effects of injecting oxic water from the New York city (NYC) drinking-water supply and distribution system into a nearby anoxic coastal plain aquifer for later recovery during periods of water shortage (aquifer storage and recovery, or ASR) were simulated by a 3-dimensional, reactive-solute transport model. The Cretaceous aquifer system in the NYC area of New York and New Jersey, USA contains pyrite, goethite, locally occurring siderite, lignite, and locally varying amounts of dissolved Fe and salinity. Sediment from cores drilled on Staten Island and western Long Island had high extractable concentrations of Fe, Mn, and acid volatile sulfides (AVS) plus chromium-reducible sulfides (CRS) and low concentrations of As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu and U. Similarly, water samples from the Lloyd aquifer (Cretaceous) in western Long Island generally contained high concentrations of Fe and Mn and low concentrations of other trace elements such as As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu and U, all of which were below US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and NY maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). In such aquifer settings, ASR operations can be complicated by the oxidative dissolution of pyrite, low pH. and high concentrations of dissolved Fe in extracted water.The simulated injection of buffered, oxic city water into a hypothetical ASR well increased the hydraulic head at the well, displaced the ambient groundwater, and formed a spheroid of injected water with lower concentrations of Fe, Mn and major ions in water surrounding the ASR well, than in ambient water. Both the dissolved O(2) concentrations and the pH of water near the well generally increased in magnitude during the simulated 5-a injection phase. The resultant oxidation of Fe(2+) and attendant precipitation of goethite during injection provided a substrate for sorption of dissolved Fe during the 8-a extraction phase. The baseline scenario with a low (0.001 M) concentration of pyrite in aquifer sediments, indicated that nearly 190% more water with acceptably low concentrations of dissolved Fe could be extracted than was injected. Scenarios with larger amounts of pyrite in aquifer sediments generally resulted in less goethite precipitation, increased acidity, and increased concentrations of dissolved Fe in extracted water. In these pyritic scenarios, the lower amounts of goethite precipitated and the lower pH during the extraction phase resulted in decreased sorption of Fe(2+) and a decreased amount of extractable water with acceptably low concentrations of dissolved Fe (5.4 x 10(-6) M). A linear decrease in recovery efficiency with respect to dissolved Fe concentrations is caused by pyrite dissolution and the associated depletion of dissolved O(2) (DO) and increase in acidity. Simulations with more than 0.0037 M of pyrite, which is the maximum amount dissolved in the baseline scenario, had just over a 50% recovery efficiency. The precipitation of ferric hydroxide minerals (goethite) at the well screen, and a possible associated decrease in specific capacity of the ASR well, was not apparent during the extraction phase of ASR simulations, but the model does not incorporate the microbial effects and biofouling associated with ferric hydroxide precipitation.The host groundwater chemistry in calcite-poor Cretaceous aquifers of the NYC area consists of low alkalinity and moderate to low pH. The dissolution of goethite in scenarios with unbuffered injectate indicates that corrosion of the well could occur if the injectate is not buffered. Simulations with buffered injectate resulted in greater precipitation of goethite, and lower concentrations of dissolved Fe, in the extracted water. Dissolved Fe concentrations in extracted water were highest in simulations of aquifers (1) in which pyrite and siderite in the aquifer were in equilibrium, and (2) in coastal areas affected by saltwater intrusion, where high dissolved-cation concentrations provide a greater exchange of Fe(2+) (FeX(2)). Results indicate that ASR in pyrite-bearing, Cretaceous aquifers of the NYC area can be a cost effective way to both store drinking water supplies and significantly reduce ambient concentrations of dissolved Fe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, transmissivity, and storativity of the aquifer system at Centereach, New York, were estimated using analytical multiple-well aquifer test models and compared with results of numerical regional flow modeling and hydrogeologic framework studies. During the initial operation of production well S125632 in May 2008, continuous water-level and temperature data were collected at a cluster of five partially penetrating observation wells, located about 100 feet (ft) from S125632, and at observation well S33380, located about 10,000 ft from S125632. Data collection intervals ranged from 30 seconds to 30 minutes and analytical model calibration was conducted using visual trial-and-error techniques with time series parsed to 30-minute intervals. The following assumptions were applied to analytical models: (1) infinite aerial extent, (2) homogeneity, (3) uniform 600-ft aquifer thickness, (4) unsteady flow, (5) instantaneous release from storage with the decline in head, (6) no storage within pumped wells, (7) a constant-head plane adjacent to bounding confining units, and (8) no horizontal component of flow through confining units. Preliminary estimates of horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of 50 ft per day horizontal and 0.5 ft per day vertical were extrapolated from previous flow modeling and hydrogeologic framework studies of the Magothy aquifer. Two applications were then developed from the Hantush analytical model. Model A included only the pumping stress of S125632, whereas model B included the concurrent pumping stresses from two other production well fields (wells S66496 and S32551). Model A provided a sufficient match to the observed water-level responses from pumping, whereas model B more accurately reproduced water levels similar to those observed during non-pumping of S125632, as well as some effects of interference from the concurrent pumping nearby. In both models, storativity was estimated to be 0.003 (dimensionless) and the Hantush leakage parameter '1/B' was estimated to be 0.00083 ft-1. Representation of leakage across the overlying confining layer was likely complicated by: (1) irregularities in surface altitude and (2) groundwater recharge due to rainfall during the aquifer test.

The Retsof salt mine in upstate New York was flooded from 1994 to 1996 after two roof collapses created rubble chimneys in overlying bedrock that intersected a confined aquifer in glacial sediments. The mine now contains about 60 billion liters of saturated halite brine that is slowly being displaced as the weight of overlying sediments causes the mine cavity to close, a process that could last several hundred years. Saline water was detected in the confined aquifer in 2002, and a brine-mitigation project that includes pumping followed by onsite desalination was implemented in 2006 to prevent further migration of saline water from the collapse area. A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey using geochemical and variable-density flow modeling to determine sources of salinity in the confined aquifer and to assess (1) processes that control movement and mixing of waters in the collapse area, (2) the effect of pumping on salinity, and (3) the potential for anhydrite dissolution and subsequent land subsidence resulting from mixing of waters induced by pumping. The primary source of salinity in the collapse area is halite brine that was displaced from the flooded mine and transported upward by advection and dispersion through the rubble chimneys and surrounding deformation zone. Geochemical and variable-density modeling indicate that salinity in the upper part of the collapse area is partly derived from inflow of saline water from bedrock fracture zones during water-level recovery (January 1996 through August 2006). The lateral diversion of brine into bedrock fracture zones promoted the upward migration of mine water through mixing with lower density waters. The relative contributions of mine water, bedrock water, and aquifer water to the observed salinity profile within the collapse area are controlled by the rates of flow to and from bedrock fracture zones. Variable-density simulations of water-level recovery indicate that saline water has probably not migrated beyond the collapse area, while simulations of pumping indicate that further upward migration of brine and saline water is now prevented by groundwater withdrawals under the brine-mitigation project. Geochemical modeling indicates that additional land subsidence as a result of anhydrite dissolution in the collapse area is not a concern, as long as the rate of brine pumping is less than the rate of upward flow of brine from the flooded mine. The collapse area above the flooded salt mine is within a glacially scoured bedrock valley that is filled with more than 150 meters of glacial drift. A confined aquifer at the bottom of the glacial sediments (referred to as the lower confined aquifer, or LCA) was the source of most of the water that flooded the mine. Two rubble chimneys that formed above the roof collapses in 1994 hydraulically connect the flooded mine to the LCA through 180 meters of sedimentary rock. From 1996 through 2006, water levels in the aquifer system recovered and the brine-displacement rate ranged from 4.4 to 1.6 liters per second, as estimated from land-surface subsidence above the mine. A zone of fracturing within the bedrock (the deformation zone) formed around the rubble chimneys as rock layers sagged toward the mine cavity after the roof collapses. Borehole geophysical surveys have identified three saline-water-bearing fracture zones in the bedrock: at stratigraphic contacts between the Onondaga and Bertie Limestones (O/B-FZ) and the Bertie Limestone and the Camillus Shale (B/C-FZ), and in the Syracuse Formation (Syr-FZ). The only outlets for brine displaced from the mine are through the rubble chimneys, but some of the brine could be diverted laterally into fracture zones in the rocks that lie between the mine and the LCA. Inverse geochemical models developed using PHREEQC indicate that halite brine in the flooded mine is derived from a mixture of freshwater from the LCA (81 percent), saline water from bedrock fracture zones (16 per

The coastal-aquifer system of Manhasset Neck, Nassau County, New York, has been stressed by pumping, which has led to saltwater intrusion and the abandonment of one public-supply well in 1944. Measurements of chloride concentrations and water levels in 2004 from the deep, confined aquifers indicate active saltwater intrusion in response to public-supply pumping. A numerical model capable of simulating three-dimensional variable-density ground-water flow and solute transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic aquifers was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-element, variable-density, solute-transport simulator SUTRA, to investigate the extent of saltwater intrusion beneath Manhasset Neck. The model is composed of eight layers representing the hydrogeologic system beneath Manhasset Neck. Four modifications to the area?s previously described hydrogeologic framework were made in the model (1) the bedrock-surface altitude at well N12191 was corrected from a previously reported value, (2) part of the extent of the Raritan confining unit was shifted, (3) part of the extent of the North Shore confining unit was shifted, and (4) a clay layer in the upper glacial aquifer was added in the central and southern parts of the Manhasset Neck peninsula. Ground-water flow and the location of the freshwater-saltwater interface were simulated for three conditions (time periods) (1) a steady-state (predevelopment) simulation of no pumping prior to about 1905, (2) a 40-year transient simulation based on 1939 pumpage representing the 1905-1944 period of gradual saltwater intrusion, and (3) a 60-year transient simulation based on 1995 pumpage representing the 1945-2005 period of stabilized withdrawals. The 1939 pumpage rate (12.1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)) applied to the 1905-1944 transient simulation caused modeled average water-level declines of 2 and 4 feet (ft) in the shallow and deep aquifer systems from predevelopment conditions, respectively, a net decrease of 5.2 Mgal/d in freshwater discharge to offshore areas and a net increase of 6.9 Mgal/d of freshwater entering the model from the eastern, western, and southern lateral boundaries. The 1995 pumpage rate (43.3 Mgal/d) applied to the 1945-2005 transient simulation caused modeled average water-level declines of 5 and 8 ft in the shallow and deep aquifer systems from predevelopment conditions, respectively, a net decrease of 13.2 Mgal/d in freshwater discharge to offshore areas and a net increase of 30.1 Mgal/d of freshwater entering the model from the eastern, western, and southern lateral boundaries. The simulated decrease in freshwater discharge to the offshore areas caused saltwater intrusion in two parts of the deep aquifer system under Manhasset Neck. Saline ground water simulated in a third part of the deep aquifer system under Manhasset Neck was due to the absence of the North Shore confining unit near Sands Point. Simulated chloride concentrations greater than 250 milligrams per liter (mg/L) were used to represent the freshwater-saltwater interface, and the movement of this concentration was evaluated for transient simulations. The decrease in the 1905-1944 simulated freshwater discharge to the offshore areas caused the freshwater-saltwater interface in the deep aquifer system to advance landward more than 1,700 ft from its steady-state position in the vicinity of Baxter Estates Village, Long Island, New York. The decrease in the 1945-2005 simulated freshwater discharge to the offshore areas caused a different area of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the deep aquifer system to advance more than 600 ft from its steady-state position approximately 1 mile south of the Baxter Estates Village. However, the 1945-2005 transient simulation underestimates the concentration and extent of saltwater intrusion determined from water-quality samples collected from wells N12508 and N12793, where measured chloride concentrations increased from 625 and 18 mg/L in 1997 t

Freshwater storage in deep aquifers of Brooklyn and Queens, New York, USA, is under consideration as an emergency water supply for New York City. The purpose of a New York City storage and recovery system is to provide an emergency water supply during times of drought or other contingencies and would entail longer-term storage phases than a typical annual cycle. There is concern amongst neighboring coastal communities that such a system would adversely impact their local water supplies via increased saltwater intrusion. This analysis uses three-dimensional modeling of variable-density ground-water flow and salt transport to study conditions under which hypothetical aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) may not adversely impact the coastal water supplies. A range of storage, pause, and recovery phase lengths and ASR cycle repetitions were used to test scenarios that emphasize control of potential saltwater intrusion.The USGS SUTRA code was used to simulate movement of the freshwater-saltwater transition zones in a detailed model of the upper glacial, Jameco, Magothy, and Lloyd aquifers of western Long Island, New York. Simulated transition zones in the upper glacial, Jameco, and Magothy aquifers reach a steady state for 1999 stress and recharge conditions within 1 ka; however, saltwater encroachment is ongoing in the Lloyd (deepest) aquifer, for which the effects of the rise in sea level since deglaciation on transition zone equilibration are retarded by many ka due to the thick, overlying Raritan confining unit. Pumping in the 20th century has also caused widening and landward movement of the Lloyd aquifer transition zone. Simulation of scenarios of freshwater storage by injection followed by phases of pause and recovery by extraction indicates that the effect of net storage when less water is recovered than injected is to set up a hydraulic saltwater intrusion barrier in the Lloyd aquifer which may have beneficial effects to coastal water users. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.