While new chemicals have replaced major toxic legacy contaminants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), knowledge of their current levels and biomagnification potential in Baltic Sea biota is lacking. Therefore, a suite of chemicals of emerging concern, including organophosphate esters (OPEs), short-chain, medium-chain and long-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs, MCCPs, LCCPs), halogenated flame retardants (HFRs), and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), were analysed in blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), viviparous eelpout (Zoarces viviparus), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), grey seal (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seal (Phoca vitulina), harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), common eider (Somateria mollissima), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) from the Baltic Proper, sampled between 2006 and 2016. Results were benchmarked with existing data for legacy contaminants. The mean concentrations for ΣOPEs ranged from 57 to 550 ng g−1 lipid weight (lw), for ΣCPs from 110 to 640 ng g−1 lw for ΣHFRs from 0.42 to 80 ng g−1 lw, and for ΣPFAS from 1.1 to 450 ng g−1 wet weight. Perfluoro-4-ethylcyclohexanesulfonate (PFECHS) was detected in most species. Levels of OPEs, CPs and HFRs were generally similar or higher than those of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and/or hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD). OPE, CP and HFR concentrations were also similar to PCBs and DDTs in blue mussel, viviparous eelpout and Atlantic herring. In marine mammals and birds, PCB and DDT concentrations remained orders of magnitude higher than those of OPEs, CPs, HFRs and PFAS. Predator-prey ratios for individual OPEs (0.28–3.9) and CPs (0.40–5.0) were similar or somewhat lower than those seen for BDE-47 (5.0–29) and HBCDD (2.4–13). Ratios for individual HFRs (0.010–37) and PFAS (0.15–47) were, however, of the same order of magnitude as seen for p,p′-DDE (4.7–66) and CB-153 (31–190), indicating biomagnification potential for many of the emerging contaminants. Lack of toxicity data, including for complex mixtures, makes it difficult to assess the risks emerging contaminants pose. Their occurence and biomagnification potential should trigger risk management measures, particularly for MCCPs, HFRs and PFAS.

Short-, medium-, and long-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs) have a wide range of physical-chemical properties, indicating their varying bioaccumulation tendencies in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. However, there are few empirical data to reveal such bioaccumulation tendencies. In this study, we analyzed SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs in samples from 18 species at both low and high trophic levels of marine and terrestrial ecosystems from the Scandinavian region collected during the past decade. These included fish, seabirds, marine mammals, and terrestrial birds and mammals. SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs were present in all the species, with concentrations ranging from 26-1500, 30-1600, 6.0-1200 ng/g lipid, respectively. Although MCCPs and SCCPs predominated in most species, many terrestrial species had generally higher concentrations of LCCPs than marine species. Terrestrial raptors in particular accumulated higher concentrations of LCCPs, including C24/25-which are predominant among very-long-chain components. LCCP concentrations were highest and predominated (55% of total CPs) in peregrine falcons in this study, which is the first report where concentrations of LCCPs surpass those of SCCPs and MCCPs in wildlife. The results also indicate biomagnification of SCCPs, MCCPs, and LCCPs in both marine and terrestrial food chains, but in-depth studies of specific food webs are needed.

Global warming is predicted to change ecosystem functioning and structure in Arctic ecosystems by strengthening top‐down species interactions, i.e. predation pressure on small herbivores and interference between predators. Yet, previous research is biased towards the summer season. Due to greater abiotic constraints, Arctic ecosystem characteristics might be more pronounced in winter. Here we test the hypothesis that top‐down species interactions prevail over bottom‐up effects in Scandinavian mountain tundra (Northern Sweden) where effects of climate warming have been observed and top‐down interactions are expected to strengthen. But we test this ‘a priori’ hypothesis in winter and throughout the 3–4 yr rodent cycle, which imposes additional pulsed resource constraints. We used snowtracking data recorded in 12 winters (2004–2015) to analyse the spatial patterns of a tundra predator guild (arctic fox Vulpes lagopus, red fox Vulpes vulpes, wolverine Gulo gulo) and small prey (ptarmigan, Lagopus spp). The a priori top‐down hypothesis was then tested through structural equation modelling, for each phase of the rodent cycle. There was weak support for this hypothesis, with top‐down effects only discerned on arctic fox (weakly, by wolverine) and ptarmigan (by arctic fox) at intermediate and high rodent availability respectively. Overall, bottom‐up constraints appeared more influential on the winter community structure. Cold specialist predators (arctic fox and wolverine) showed variable landscape associations, while the boreal predator (red fox) appeared strongly dependent on productive habitats and ptarmigan abundance. Thus, we suggest that the unpredictability of food resources determines the winter ecology of the cold specialist predators, while the boreal predator relies on resource‐rich habitats. The constraints imposed by winters and temporary resource lows should therefore counteract productivity‐driven ecosystem change and have a stabilising effect on community structure. Hence, the interplay between summer and winter conditions should determine the rate of Arctic ecosystem change in the context of global warming.

Predation is an ecologically important process, and intra-guild interactions may substantially influence the ecological effects of predator species. Despite a rapid expansion in the use of mathematical graph theory to describe trophic relations, network approaches have rarely been used to study interactions within predator assemblages. Assemblages of diurnal raptors are subject to substantial intra- and interspecific competition. Here we used the novel approach of applying analyzes based on network topology to species-specific data on the stable isotopes (13)C and (15)N in feathers to evaluate patterns of relative resource utilization within a guild of diurnal raptors in northern Sweden. Our guild consisted of the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), the gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus), the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) and the rough-legged buzzard (Buteo lagopus). We found a modular trophic interaction structure within the guild, but the interactions were less nested than expected by chance. These results suggest low redundancy and hence a strong ecological importance of individual species. Our data also suggested that species were less connected through intra-guild interactions than expected by chance. We interpret our results as a convergence on specific isotope niches, and that body size and different hunting behaviour may mediate competition within these niches. We finally highlight that generalist predators could be ecologically important by linking specialist predator species with disparate dietary niches.

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930-1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

The functional response is a key element of predator–prey interactions. Basic functional response theory explains foraging behavior of individual predators, but many empirical studies of free-ranging predators have estimated functional responses by using population-averaged data. We used a novel approach to investigate functional responses of an avian predator (the rough legged-buzzard Buteo lagopus Pontoppidan, 1763) to intra-annual spatial variation in rodent density in subarctic Sweden, using breeding pairs as the sampling unit. The rough-legged buzzards responded functionally to Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus L. 1758), grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus Sundevall, 1846) and field voles (Microtus agrestis L. 1761), but different rodent prey were not utilised according to relative abundance. The functional response to Norwegian lemmings was a steep type II curve and a more shallow type III response to grey-sided voles. The different shapes of these two functional responses were likely due to combined effects of differences between lemmings and grey-sided voles in habitat utilisation, anti-predator behaviour and size-dependent vulnerability to predation. Diet composition changed less than changes in relative prey abundance, indicating negative switching, with high disproportional use of especially lemmings at low relative densities. Our results suggest that lemmings and voles should be treated separately in future empirical and theoretical studies in order to better understand the role of predation in this study system.

Specialist predators per definition show numerical responses to changes in food supply. Numerical responses are broadly divided into a reproductive response, where reproductive output increases wit ...

Summary More than a quarter of the world's carnivores are threatened, often due to multiple and complex causes. Considerable research efforts are devoted to resolving the mechanisms behind these threats in order to provide a basis for relevant conservation actions. However, even when the underlying mechanisms are known, specific actions aimed at direct support for carnivores are difficult to implement and evaluate at efficient spatial and temporal scales. We report on a 30‐year inventory of the critically endangered Fennoscandian arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L., including yearly surveys of 600 fox dens covering 21 000 km2. These surveys showed that the population was close to extinction in 2000, with 40–60 adult animals left. However, the population subsequently showed a fourfold increase in size. During this time period, conservation actions through supplementary feeding and predator removal were implemented in several regions across Scandinavia, encompassing 79% of the area. To evaluate these actions, we examined the effect of supplemental winter feeding and red fox control applied at different intensities in 10 regions. A path analysis indicated that 47% of the explained variation in population productivity could be attributed to lemming abundance, whereas winter feeding had a 29% effect and red fox control a 20% effect. This confirms that arctic foxes are highly dependent on lemming population fluctuations but also shows that red foxes severely impact the viability of arctic foxes. This study also highlights the importance of implementing conservation actions on extensive spatial and temporal scales, with geographically dispersed actions to scientifically evaluate the effects. We note that population recovery was only seen in regions with a high intensity of management actions. Synthesis and applications. The present study demonstrates that carnivore population declines may be reversed through extensive actions that target specific threats. Fennoscandian arctic fox is still endangered, due to low population connectivity and expected climate impacts on the distribution and dynamics of lemmings and red foxes. Climate warming is expected to contribute to both more irregular lemming dynamics and red fox appearance in tundra areas; however, the effects of climate change can be mitigated through intensive management actions such as supplemental feeding and red fox control.

Earlier studies of human operators in complex and dynamic work situations have demonstrated the importance of understanding the operator's goal, mental model, observability, and controllability. Based on this model we have been able to analyse and design control systems and user interfaces supporting efficient control and high situation awareness. We now extended this model to include collaboration between different actors in complex control environments. This paper describes basic elements of the model, extension to collaboration, and its application to understand important problems and prerequisites for development of control systems in train traffic control in Sweden.

This study aims to investigate if patterns of immigration by voles into removal plots on the third day of trapping are evident in the grey-sided vole, and if altering the number of traps at each station will result in increased precision of the vole abundance estimate. Traps were placed using the small quadrat method, with one, three, or five traps placed at each corner. Traps were checked twice a day for five days. Mixed-effect models were used to investigate the relationship between the number of traps and the length of time the traps were out on the abundance index. There was no difference between having three or five traps. Having one trap resulted in an inflated estimate. Five traps had the highest number of successful trapping events, reducing the number of zeros in the data set and leaving fewer individuals unaccounted. There was a peak in catches on the third day, driven by younger individuals and by males. These are suspected immigrants that are exploiting the territories left by individuals trapped in the first two days, suggesting this is not a closed system.

Cyclic dynamics with extensive spatial synchrony has long been regarded as characteristic of key herbivores at high latitudes. This contrasts to recent reports of fading cycles in arvicoline rodents in boreal and alpine Fennoscandia. We investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of boreal red fox and alpine arctic fox in Sweden as a proxy for the dynamics of their main prey, voles and Norwegian lemming, respectively. We analyse data from five decades, 1960-2008, with wavelets and autocorrelation approaches. Cyclic dynamics were identified with at least one method in all populations (arctic fox n = 3, red fox n = 6). The dynamics were synchronous between populations, or coupled with a 1-yr lag, in 8 of 13 pairwise comparisons. Importantly though, the dynamics were heterogeneous in space and time. All analytical approaches identified fading cycles in the three arctic fox populations and two northern red fox populations. At least one method identified similar patterns in three southern red fox populations. Red fox dynamics were cyclic in the 1970s primarily, while arctic fox dynamics was cyclic until the late 1980s or early 1990s. When cyclic, 4-yr cycles dominated in arctic fox and northern red fox, whilst 3-4-yr cycles was found in southern red foxes. Significant cyclic regimes reappeared in the 1990s or 2000s in two red fox populations and one arctic fox population. Cycles and regionally coupled dynamics appeared associated in northern arctic and red foxes. This study supports accumulating evidence which suggests that cyclic and synchronous patterns in the dynamics of lemmings and voles are nonstationary in space and time. Furthermore, the similar patterns of change in both fox species indicate that persistence of cycles is governed by similar mechanisms in lemmings and voles.

In food webs heavily influenced by multi-annual population fluctuations of key herbivores, predator species may differ in their functional and numerical responses as well as their competitive ability. Focusing on red and arctic fox in tundra with cyclic populations of rodents as key prey, we develop a model to predict how population dynamics of a dominant and versatile predator (red fox) impacted long-term growth rate of a subdominant and less versatile predator (arctic fox). We compare three realistic scenarios of red fox performance: (1) a numerical response scenario where red fox acted as a resident rodent specialist exhibiting population cycles lagging one year after the rodent cycle, (2) an aggregative response scenario where red fox shifted between tundra and a nearby ecosystem (i.e. boreal forest) so as to track rodent peaks in tundra without delay, and (3) a constant subsidy scenario in which the red fox population was stabilized at the same mean density as in the other two scenarios. For all three scenarios it is assumed that the arctic fox responded numerically as a rodent specialist and that the mechanisms of competition is of a interference type for space, in which the arctic fox is excluded from the most resource rich patches in tundra. Arctic fox is impacted most by the constant subsidy scenario and least by the numerical response scenario. The differential effects of the scenarios stemmed from cyclic phase-dependent sensitivity to competition mediated by changes in temporal mean and variance of available prey to the subdominant predator. A general implication from our result is that external resource subsidies (prey or habitats), monopolized by the dominant competitor, can significantly reduce the likelihood for co-existence within the predator guild. In terms of conservation of vulnerable arctic fox populations this means that the likelihood of extinction increases with increasing amount of subsidies (e.g. carcasses of large herbivores or marine resources) in tundra and nearby forest areas, since it will act to both increase and stabilize populations of red fox.

Comprehensive population parameter data are useful for assessing effective conservation actions. The Fennoscandian arctic fox Alopex lagopus is critically endangered and the population size is estimated at 120 individuals that are fragmented into four isolated populations. Here, we use molecular tracking and visual observations to estimate population size and survival in one of the populations on the Swedish mountain tundra during a year of low food availability. We collected 98 arctic fox faecal samples during the winter of 2006 and recorded visual observations of ear-tagged individuals during the summer of 2005 and 2006. The faecal samples were analysed for variation in nine microsatellite loci and matched to the genetic profiles of previously ear-tagged individuals from 2001 to 2005. During winter 2006, the minimum number alive was 12 individuals using visual observations, 30 using molecular tracking and 36 by combining the datasets. Population size was estimated through mark-recapture for the molecular tracking and visual observation datasets and through rarefaction analyses for molecular tracking data. The mark-recapture estimate for visual observations was uninformative due to the large confidence interval (CI) (i.e. 6-212 individuals). Based on the molecular tracking dataset combined with the minimum number alive for visual observations and molecular tracking, we concluded a consensus population size of 36-55 individuals. We also estimated the age-specific finite survival rate during 1 year (July 2005 to July 2006) by combining molecular tracking with visual observations. Juvenile survival on a yearly basis was 0.08 (95% CI 0.02-0.18) while adults had a survival of 0.59 (95% CI 0.39-0.82). Juveniles displayed a lower survival than the adults during autumn (P < 0.01) whereas no age-specific survival difference during spring was found. The risk of negative effects due to the small population size and low juvenile survival is accordingly considerable.