This article provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses different interpretations of the evidence and the implications for macroeconomic analysis. The uncovered interest parity assumption has been an important building block in multi-period models of open economies and, although its validity is strongly challenged by the empirical evidence, at least at short time horizons, its retention in macroeconomic models is supported on pragmatic grounds by the lack of much empirical support for existing models of the exchange risk premium.

The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide substantially different assessments, and asks which methodologies deserve the most weight in such situations. It argues that while it is generally desirable to consider the implications of several different approaches, since different approaches provide different types of perspectives, two of the methodologies seem particularly relevant for identifying threats to macroeconomic stability and growth.

Discussions of the different theoretical and empirical paradigms for setting and predicting exchange rates. Recent theoretical developments in exchange rate economics have led to important new insights into the functioning of the foreign exchange market. The simple models of the 1970s, which could not withstand empirical evaluation, have been succeeded by more complex models that draw on theoretical work in such areas as the microstructure of financial markets and open economy macroeconomics. Additionally, new and powerful econometric techniques allow researchers to subject exchange rates to stronger empirical analysis. This book discusses the divergent theoretical and empirical paradigms used today for setting and predicting exchange rates; the chapters reflect current debates in the field. Some chapters base their analyses on the theoretical framework of representative and fully informed rational agents; others are grounded in the hetereogeneity of agents who use different and incomplete sets of information. Still other chapters analyze empirical data to uncover the fundamental characteristics of exchange rates. Taken together, these competing analyses document the current state of exchange rate economics and point the way to a new consensus about how to predict and explain exchange rate movements.

The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass-through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass-through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on stabilization objectives. When faced with uncertainty about the strength of exchange rate pass-through, policymakers will make less costly errors by overestimating the strength of pass-through rather than underestimating it. The analysis suggests that pass-through uncertainty of the magnitude considered does not result in efficient policy response coefficients that are smaller than those under certainty.

This paper uses a three-country, three-good, factor-specific model of trade with wage rigidities to investigate how European Monetary Union is likely to affect exchange rate variability. Focusing on international macroeconomic adjustment under both exogenous and optimizing monetary policies, it shows that the relative variability (against external currencies) of the euro and a basket of predecessor currencies depends on the relative sizes and specialization patterns of countries and the relative importance of different shocks. Monetary union is likely to decrease (increase) aggregate European exchange rate variability for shocks to industries in which large (small) euro area countries specialize.

This chapter reports on Coordinating Group on Exchange Rate Issues’ (CGER) works and provides perspectives on alternative frameworks for assessing exchange rates and the rationale for CGER's general approach. The primary motivation for the work of the CGER is to identify cases where exchange rates appear to be substantially out of line with medium-run macroeconomic fundamentals. It is recognized that such situations can have different interpretations, depending on the cyclical positions of economies and other circumstances. The assessments of exchange rates among industrial country currencies rely primarily on an application of a macroeconomic balance framework. This framework focuses on the extent to which the current account positions associated with prevailing exchange rates are consistent with medium-run fundamentals. Substantial discrepancies between exchange rates and their medium-run equilibrium levels, when they emerge, raise two different, however, related issues for the IMF to address in its exercise of bilateral and multilateral Surveillance.

Stochastic simulations are employed to compare performances of monetary policy rules in linear and nonlinear variants of a small macro model with NAIRU uncertainty under different assumptions about the way inflation expectations are formed. Cases in which policy credibility is ignored or treated as exogenous are distinguished from cases in which credibility and inflation expectations respond endogenously to the monetary authorities` track record in delivering low inflation. It is shown that endogenous policy credibility strengthens the case for forward-looking inflation forecast based rules relative to backward-looking Taylor rules.

The paper uses MULTIMOD to analyse the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, distinguishing between temporary, more persistent, and permanent shocks. It provides perspectives on several findings in the literature and the key role of monetary policy in influencing macroeconomic outcomes. Specific attention is paid to the channels through which oil price increases can pass through into core inflation, the implications of delayed policy responses, and the relative merits of leaning in different directions when the correct policy response is uncertain.

This chapter reports on Coordinating Group on Exchange Rate Issues’ (CGER) works and provides perspectives on alternative frameworks for assessing exchange rates and the rationale for CGER's general approach. The primary motivation for the work of the CGER is to identify cases where exchange rates appear to be substantially out of line with medium-run macroeconomic fundamentals. It is recognized that such situations can have different interpretations, depending on the cyclical positions of economies and other circumstances. The assessments of exchange rates among industrial country currencies rely primarily on an application of a macroeconomic balance framework. This framework focuses on the extent to which the current account positions associated with prevailing exchange rates are consistent with medium-run fundamentals. Substantial discrepancies between exchange rates and their medium-run equilibrium levels, when they emerge, raise two different, however, related issues for the IMF to address in its exercise of bilateral and multilateral Surveillance.

This chapter reports on Coordinating Group on Exchange Rate Issues’ (CGER) works and provides perspectives on alternative frameworks for assessing exchange rates and the rationale for CGER's general approach. The primary motivation for the work of the CGER is to identify cases where exchange rates appear to be substantially out of line with medium-run macroeconomic fundamentals. It is recognized that such situations can have different interpretations, depending on the cyclical positions of economies and other circumstances. The assessments of exchange rates among industrial country currencies rely primarily on an application of a macroeconomic balance framework. This framework focuses on the extent to which the current account positions associated with prevailing exchange rates are consistent with medium-run fundamentals. Substantial discrepancies between exchange rates and their medium-run equilibrium levels, when they emerge, raise two different, however, related issues for the IMF to address in its exercise of bilateral and multilateral Surveillance.

This chapter reports on Coordinating Group on Exchange Rate Issues’ (CGER) works and provides perspectives on alternative frameworks for assessing exchange rates and the rationale for CGER's general approach. The primary motivation for the work of the CGER is to identify cases where exchange rates appear to be substantially out of line with medium-run macroeconomic fundamentals. It is recognized that such situations can have different interpretations, depending on the cyclical positions of economies and other circumstances. The assessments of exchange rates among industrial country currencies rely primarily on an application of a macroeconomic balance framework. This framework focuses on the extent to which the current account positions associated with prevailing exchange rates are consistent with medium-run fundamentals. Substantial discrepancies between exchange rates and their medium-run equilibrium levels, when they emerge, raise two different, however, related issues for the IMF to address in its exercise of bilateral and multilateral Surveillance.

This chapter reports on Coordinating Group on Exchange Rate Issues’ (CGER) works and provides perspectives on alternative frameworks for assessing exchange rates and the rationale for CGER's general approach. The primary motivation for the work of the CGER is to identify cases where exchange rates appear to be substantially out of line with medium-run macroeconomic fundamentals. It is recognized that such situations can have different interpretations, depending on the cyclical positions of economies and other circumstances. The assessments of exchange rates among industrial country currencies rely primarily on an application of a macroeconomic balance framework. This framework focuses on the extent to which the current account positions associated with prevailing exchange rates are consistent with medium-run fundamentals. Substantial discrepancies between exchange rates and their medium-run equilibrium levels, when they emerge, raise two different, however, related issues for the IMF to address in its exercise of bilateral and multilateral Surveillance.

The paper tests the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (rapid economic growth is accompanied by real exchange rate appreciation because of differential productivity growth between tradable and nontradable sectors) using data of the APEC economies. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and, to a lesser extent, Hong Kong and Singapore, were proved to follow the Balassa-Samuelson path. These countries follow a similar industrialization pattern, increasing the weight of high value-added exports. Although Hong Kong and Singapore grew fast, their real exchange rates appreciated only moderately. High productivity growth in service sectors might have been the reason for this. Other fast-growing ASEAN countries, such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia did not experience real appreciation. Closer examinations of various components of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis revealed that key assumptions are not uniformly supported: There is no uniform pattern for the movement of nontradable prices relative to tradable prices; and tradable prices (measured by common currency) do not show the international arbitrage.