ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

This paper summarises the view of the German Commission on Radiological Protection ("Strahlenschutzkommission", SSK) on the rationale behind the currently valid dose limits and dose constraints for workers recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The paper includes a discussion of the reasoning behind current dose limits followed by a discussion of the detriment used by ICRP as a measure for stochastic health effects. Studies on radiation-induced cancer are reviewed because this endpoint represents the most important contribution to detriment. Recent findings on radiation-induced circulatory disease that are currently not included in detriment calculation are also reviewed. It appeared that for detriment calculations the contribution of circulatory diseases plays only a secondary role, although the uncertainties involved in their risk estimates are considerable. These discussions are complemented by a review of the procedures currently in use in Germany, or in discussion elsewhere, to define limits for genotoxic carcinogens. To put these concepts in perspective, actual occupational radiation exposures are exemplified with data from Germany, for the year 2012, and regulations in Germany are compared to the recommendations issued by ICRP. Conclusions include, among others, considerations on radiation protection concepts currently in use and recommendations of the SSK on the limitation of annual effective dose and effective dose cumulated over a whole working life.

We propose a stochastic model for use in epidemiological analysis, describing the age-dependent development of atherosclerosis with adequate simplification. The model features the uptake of monocytes into the arterial wall, their proliferation and transition into foam cells. The number of foam cells is assumed to determine the health risk for clinically relevant events such as stroke. In a simulation study, the model was checked against the age-dependent prevalence of atherosclerotic lesions. Next, the model was applied to incidence of atherosclerotic stroke in the cohort of male workers from the Mayak nuclear facility in the Southern Urals. It describes the data as well as standard epidemiological models. Based on goodness-of-fit criteria the risk factors smoking, hypertension and radiation exposure were tested for their effect on disease development. Hypertension was identified to affect disease progression mainly in the late stage of atherosclerosis. Fitting mechanistic models to incidence data allows to integrate biological evidence on disease progression into epidemiological studies. The mechanistic approach adds to an understanding of pathogenic processes, whereas standard epidemiological methods mainly explore the statistical association between risk factors and disease outcome. Due to a more comprehensive scientific foundation, risk estimates from mechanistic models can be deemed more reliable. To the best of our knowledge, such models are applied to epidemiological data on cardiovascular diseases for the first time.

Strong evidence for the statistical association between radiation exposure and disease has been produced for thyroid cancer by epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl accident. However, limitations of the epidemiological approach in order to explore health risks especially at low doses of radiation appear obvious. Statistical fluctuations due to small case numbers dominate the uncertainty of risk estimates. Molecular radiation markers have been searched extensively to separate radiation-induced cancer cases from sporadic cases. The overexpression of the CLIP2 gene is the most promising of these markers. It was found in the majority of papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) from young patients included in the Chernobyl tissue bank. Motivated by the CLIP2 findings we propose a mechanistic model which describes PTC development as a sequence of rate-limiting events in two distinct paths of CLIP2-associated and multistage carcinogenesis. It integrates molecular measurements of the dichotomous CLIP2 marker from 141 patients into the epidemiological risk analysis for about 13 000 subjects from the Ukrainian-American cohort which were exposed below age 19 years and were put under enhanced medical surveillance since 1998. For the first time, a radiation risk has been estimated solely from marker measurements. Cross checking with epidemiological estimates and model validation suggests that CLIP2 is a marker of high precision. CLIP2 leaves an imprint in the epidemiological incidence data which is typical for a driver gene. With the mechanistic model, we explore the impact of radiation on the molecular landscape of PTC. The model constitutes a unique interface between molecular biology and radiation epidemiology.

The cohort of 17,200 female Swedish hemangioma patients, who had been exposed to ionizing radiation because of skin hemangioma, was analyzed for breast cancer incidence with descriptive excess relative risk models and mechanistic models of carcinogenesis. The dosimetry system has recently been updated, leading to substantially reduced doses for the most highly exposed part of the Stockholm cohort. The follow-up includes persons until December 2009 with 877 breast cancer cases. All models agree on the risk estimates. The excess relative and excess absolute risk at the age of 50 years are 0.48 Gy−1 (95% CI 0.28; 0.69) and 10.4 (104PYR Gy)−1 (95% CI 6.1; 14.4), respectively. These risk estimates are about a factor of 2 higher than previous analyses of this cohort as a consequence of the re-evaluation of the dosimetry system. Explicit models incorporating effects of genomic instability were developed and applied to the hemangioma cohort. It was found that a radiation-induced transition towards genomic instability was highly significant. The models indicate that the main effect of radiation-induced genomic instability is to increase the rate of transition of non-initiated cells to initiated cells with a proliferative advantage. The magnitude of such an acceleration cannot be inferred from epidemiological data alone, but must be complemented by radiobiological measurements.

A previous study on papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTC) in young patients who were exposed to (131)iodine from the Chernobyl fallout revealed an exclusive gain of chromosomal band 7q11.23 in exposed cases compared to an age-matched control cohort. CLIP2, a gene located within band 7q11.23 was shown to be differentially expressed between exposed and non-exposed cases at messenger RNA and protein level. Therefore, a standardized procedure for CLIP2 typing of PTCs has been developed in a follow-up study. Here we used CLIP2 typing data on 117 post-Chernobyl PTCs from two cohorts of exposed patients with individual dose estimates and 24 non-exposed controls to investigate a possible quantitative dose-response relationship of the CLIP2 marker. The 'Genrisk-T' cohort consisted of 45 PTCs and the 'UkrAm' cohort of 72 PTCs. Both cohorts differed in mean dose (0.59 Gy Genrisk-T, 1.2 Gy UkrAm) and mean age at exposure (AaE) (2 years Genrisk-T, 8 years UkrAm), whilst the median latency (16 years Genrisk-T, 18 years UkrAm) was comparable. We analyzed the association between the binary CLIP2 typing and continuous thyroid dose with logistic regression. A clear positive dose-response relationship was found for young PTC cases [age at operation (AaO) < 20 years, AaE < 5 years]. In the elder age group a higher proportion of sporadic tumors is assumed due to a negligible dose response, suggesting different molecular mechanisms in sporadic and radiation-induced cases. This is further supported by the association of elder patients (AaO > 20 years) with positivity for BRAF V600E mutation.

Colon cancer is caused by multiple genomic alterations which lead to genomic instability (GI). GI appears in molecular pathways of microsatellite instability (MSI) and chromosomal instability (CIN) with clinically observed case shares of about 15-20% and 80-85%. Radiation enhances the colon cancer risk by inducing GI, but little is known about different outcomes for MSI and CIN. Computer-based modelling can facilitate the understanding of the phenomena named above. Comprehensive biological models, which combine the two main molecular pathways to colon cancer, are fitted to incidence data of Japanese a-bomb survivors. The preferred model is selected according to statistical criteria and biological plausibility. Imprints of cell-based processes in the succession from adenoma to carcinoma are identified by the model from age dependences and secular trends of the incidence data. Model parameters show remarkable compliance with mutation rates and growth rates for adenoma, which has been reported over the last fifteen years. Model results suggest that CIN begins during fission of intestinal crypts. Chromosomal aberrations are generated at a markedly elevated rate which favors the accelerated growth of premalignant adenoma. Possibly driven by a trend of Westernization in the Japanese diet, incidence rates for the CIN pathway increased notably in subsequent birth cohorts, whereas rates pertaining to MSI remained constant. An imbalance between number of CIN and MSI cases began to emerge in the 1980s, whereas in previous decades the number of cases was almost equal. The CIN pathway exhibits a strong radio-sensitivity, probably more intensive in men. Among young birth cohorts of both sexes the excess absolute radiation risk related to CIN is larger by an order of magnitude compared to the MSI-related risk. Observance of pathway-specific risks improves the determination of the probability of causation for radiation-induced colon cancer in individual patients, if their exposure histories are known.

Thyroid cancer is one of the major health concerns after the accident in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station (NPS). Currently, ultrasonography surveys are being performed for persons residing in the Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident with an age of up to 18 years. Here, the expected thyroid cancer prevalence in the Fukushima Prefecture is assessed based on an ultrasonography survey of Ukrainians, who were exposed at an age of up to 18 years to 131 I released during the Chernobyl NPS accident, and on differences in equipment and study protocol in the two surveys. Radiation risk of thyroid cancer incidence among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and preliminary estimates of thyroid dose due to the Fukushima accident were used for the prediction of baseline and radiation-related thyroid cancer risks. We estimate a prevalence of thyroid cancer of 0.027 % (95 % CI 0.010 %; 0.050 %) for the first screening campaign in the Fukushima Prefecture. Compared with the incidence rate in Japan in 2007, the ultrasonography survey is predicted to increase baseline thyroid cancer incidence by a factor of 7.4 (95 % CI 0.95; 17.3). Under the condition of continued screening, thyroid cancer during the first fifty years after the accident is predicted to be detected for about 2 % of the screened population. The prediction of radiation-related thyroid cancer in the most exposed fraction (a few ten thousand persons) of the screened population of the Fukushima Prefecture has a large uncertainty with the best estimates of the average risk of 0.1–0.3 %, depending on average dose.

Two longitudinal cohort studies of Japanese atomic bomb survivors-the life span study (LSS) and the adult health study (AHS)-from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) indicate that total body irradiation doses less than 1 Gy are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but several questions about this association remain.In particular, the diversity of heart disease subtypes and the high prevalence of other risk factors complicate the estimates of radiation effects. Subtype-specific analyses with more reliable diagnostic criteria and measurement techniques are needed. The radiation effects on CVD risk are probably tissue-reaction (deterministic) effects, so the dose-response relationships for various subtypes of CVD may be nonlinear and therefore should be explored with several types of statistical models.Subpopulations at high risk need to be identified because effects at lower radiation doses may occur primarily in these susceptible subpopulations. Whether other CVD risk factors modify radiation effects also needs to be determined. Finally, background rates for various subtypes of CVD have historically differed substantially between Japanese and Western populations, so the generalisability to other populations needs to be examined.Cardiovascular disease mechanisms and manifestations may differ between high-dose local irradiation and low-dose total body irradiation (TBI)-microvascular damage and altered metabolism from low-dose TBI, but coronary artery atherosclerosis and thrombotic myocardial infarcts at high localised doses. For TBI, doses to organs other than the heart may be important in pathogenesis of CVD, so data on renal and liver disorders, plaque instability, microvascular damage, metabolic disorders, hypertension and various CVD biomarkers and risk factors are needed. Epidemiological, clinical and experimental studies at doses of less than 1 Gy are necessary to clarify the effects of radiation on CVD risk.

Purpose: The 2012 Conference on Radiation and Health in Kennebunkport, Maine, USA, brought together epidemiologists, statisticians, basic scientists, and clinical scientists interested in the health effects of radiation exposure due to medical, diagnostic, occupational, and non-medical sources, to review the current status of epidemiologic and clinical research on radiation exposure in relation to risk of breast, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, cardiopulmonary events, and other late effects. Topics discussed included synergy between radiation exposure and genetic background; late effects of radiation therapy in childhood cancer survivors and several other medically exposed cohorts; leukemia risk seen in Russian and Chernobyl studies, and leukemia risk from computed tomography scans in childhood.Results and conclusions : This report summarizes the presentations at the meeting and discusses their significance in light of earlier studies and of other ongoing research.

Lung cancer mortality after exposure to radon decay products (RDP) among 16,236 male Eldorado uranium workers was analyzed. Male workers from the Beaverlodge and Port Radium uranium mines and the Port Hope radium and uranium refinery and processing facility who were first employed between 1932 and 1980 were followed up from 1950 to 1999. A total of 618 lung cancer deaths were observed. The analysis compared the results of the biologically-based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model to the empirical excess risk model. The spontaneous clonal expansion rate of pre-malignant cells was reduced at older ages under the assumptions of the TSCE model. Exposure to RDP was associated with increase in the clonal expansion rate during exposure but not afterwards. The increase was stronger for lower exposure rates. A radiation-induced bystander effect could be a possible explanation for such an exposure response. Results on excess risks were compared to a linear dose-response parametric excess risk model with attained age, time since exposure and dose rate as effect modifiers. In all models the excess relative risk decreased with increasing attained age, increasing time since exposure and increasing exposure rate. Large model uncertainties were found in particular for small exposure rates.

Selective removal of oncogenically transformed cells by apoptosis induced via signalling by surrounding cells has been suggested to represent a natural anticarcinogenic process. To investigate its potential effect in detail, a mechanistic model of this process is proposed. The model is calibrated against in vitro data on apoptosis triggered in transformed cells by defined external inducers as well as through signalling by normal cells under coculture conditions. The model predicts that intercellular induction of apoptosis is capable of balancing the proliferation of oncogenically transformed cells and limiting the size of their populations over long times, even if their proliferation per se were unlimited. Experimental research is desired to verify whether the predicted stable population of transformed cells corresponds to a kind of dormancy during early-stage carcinogenesis (dormant preneoplastic lesions), and how this process relates to other anticarcinogenic mechanisms taking place under in vivo conditions.

Swedish hemangioma patients were treated in infancy mainly by external application of radium-226 starting from 1920. This work analysed the radiation risk among 17,158 women with a total of 678 breast cancer incidence cases with models of carcinogenesis and empirical excess relative risk models. Models incorporating effects of genomic instability were developed and applied to the hemangioma cohort. The description of the radiation risk was significantly improved with a model of genomic instability at an early stage of carcinogenesis.

Abstract Purpose: To test the stochastic model for DNA double-strand break (DSB) repair via non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) implemented in the Monte Carlo code PARTRAC (PARticle TRACks) against measured repair kinetics after nitrogen ion and 60Co γ reference irradiation. Material and methods: By combining Monte Carlo track structure calculations with multi-scale models of cellular DNA, yields of DSB are calculated for N ion and 60Co γ-irradiation. The NHEJ model in PARTRAC is used to determine rejoining kinetics of the DNA ends and DNA fragment distributions after certain repair times. Model parameters are adapted to the measured rejoining kinetics for the different radiation types. Results: DSB rejoining kinetics after low- and high-linear energy transfer (LET) irradiation have been reproduced after refinements of the DNA repair model, in particular by considering an ongoing production of detectable DSB in the initial phase, e.g., by enzymatic processing of labile sites, and by assuming a limited availability of repair enzymes needed for processing complex lesions during the slow repair phase. Conclusions: The need for certain model refinements suggests mechanisms that may significantly contribute to the DSB rejoining kinetics during both initial and later phases of NHEJ.

This review describes the PARTRAC suite of comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation tools for calculations of track structures of a variety of ionizing radiation qualities and their biological effects. A multi-scale target model characterizes essential structures of the whole genomic DNA within human fibroblasts and lymphocytes in atomic resolution. Calculation methods and essential results are recapitulated regarding the physical, physico-chemical and chemical stage of track structure development of radiation damage induction. Recent model extension towards DNA repair processes extends the time dimension by about 12 orders of magnitude and paves the way for superior predictions of radiation risks.

Recent publications on the integration of radiobiological effects in the two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis and applications to radioepidemiological data are reviewed and updated. First, a model version with radiation-induced genomic instability was shown to be a possible explanation for the age dependence of the radiation-induced cancer mortality in the Techa River Cohort. Second, it is demonstrated that inclusion of a bystander effect with a dose threshold allows an improved description of the lung cancer mortality risk for the Mayak workers cohort due to incorporation of plutonium. The threshold for the annual lung dose is estimated to 12 (90%CI: 4; 14) mGy/year. This threshold applies to the initiation of preneoplastic cells and to hyperplastic growth. There is, however, no evidence for a threshold for the effects of gamma radiation. Third, models with radiation-induced cell inactivation tend to predict lower cancer risks among the atomic bomb survivors with exposure at young age than conventionally used empirical models. Also, risks after exposures with doses in the order of 100 mGy are predicted to be higher in models with low-dose hypersensitivity than in models with conventional cell survival curves. In the reviewed literature, models of carcinogenesis tend to describe radioepidemiological data better than conventionally used empirical models.

Plusieurs etudes epidemiologiques recentes ont evalue le risque de cancer dans des populations faiblement exposees aux radiations ionisantes. Ces nouvelles donnees ont ete confrontees a l'estimation du risque selon la methode conventionnelle.

A Monte Carlo simulation model for DNA repair via the non-homologous end-joining pathway has been developed. Initial DNA damage calculated by the Monte Carlo track structure code PARTRAC provides starting conditions concerning spatial distribution of double-strand breaks (DSBs) and characterization of lesion complexity. DNA termini undergo attachment and dissociation of repair enzymes described in stochastic first-order kinetics as well as step-by-step diffusive motion considering nuclear attachment sites. Pairs of DNA termini with attached DNA-PK enter synapsis under spatial proximity conditions. After synapsis, a single rate-limiting step is assumed for clean DNA ends, and step-by-step removal of nearby base lesions and strand breaks is considered for dirty DNA ends. Four simple model scenarios reflecting different hypotheses on the origin of the slow phase of DSB repair have been set up. Parameters for the presynaptic phase have been derived from experimental data for Ku70/Ku80 and DNA-PK association and dissociation kinetics. Time constants for the post-synaptic phase have been adapted to experimental DSB rejoining kinetics for human fibroblasts after (137)Cs gamma irradiation. In addition to DSB rejoining kinetics, the yields of residual DSBs, incorrectly rejoined DSBs, and chromosomal aberrations have been determined as a function of dose and compared with experimental data. Three of the model scenarios obviously overestimate residual DSBs after long-term repair after low-dose irradiation, whereas misrejoined DSBs and chromosomal aberrations are in surprisingly good agreement with measurements.