This study develops a Bayesian method to analyze optimal burn-in policy for heterogeneous components with minimal repair. We use the non-homogeneous Poisson processes with different power law intensity functions to model the minimal repair processes for heterogeneous components. Since the component from the weak subpopulation may fail more frequently, the total number of minimal repairs can be used for establishing a screening rule. By screening, we can decide whether the component after burn-in should be eliminated or not. Considering the uncertainty of model parameters, we generate a minimally repaired data set of components by simulation. Then, we obtain the model parameters estimators by using Bayesian method combined with the existing data. We further analyze and get the optimal burn-in settings under cost and performance optimization model. A numerical example is used to verify the effectiveness of the Bayesian method.

In this paper, we consider optimal components grouping in series–parallel and parallel–series systems composed of k subsystems. All components in each subsystem are drawn from a heterogeneous population consisting of m different subpopulations. Firstly, we show that when one allocation vector is majorized by another one, then the series–parallel (parallel–series) system corresponding to the first (second) vector is more reliable than that of the other. Secondly, we study the impact of changes in the number of subsystems on the system reliability. Finally, we study the influence of the selection probabilities of subpopulations on the system reliability.

The accelerated hazard model in survival analysis assumes that the covariate effect acts the time scale of the baseline hazard rate. In this paper, we study the stochastic properties of the mixed accelerated hazard model since the covariate is considered basically unobservable. We build dependence structure between the population variable and the covariate, and also present some preservation properties. Using some well-known stochastic orders, we compare two mixed accelerated hazards models arising out of different choices of distributions for unobservable covariates or different baseline hazard rate functions.

在多元比例优势混合模型框架下,研究随机环境对n中取k系统寿命的影响,得到了n中取k系统寿命和环境变量之间的正似然比相依性质.利用随机序,研究环境变量对n中取k系统寿命的影响.

Earthquake disasters are caused mainly from the damage and collapse of engineering structures, and the latter is mainly made by strong ground motion during the event.As city areas and scales of engineering structures are getting larger and larger in recent years, more than ever before, the forecast of strong ground motion field is emphasized.From a case study at Lanzhou city of China, a new developed approach is introduced in this paper.A hybrid source model that combines Asperity model with a K squire model is adopted.The high frequency motion is synthesized by random procedure and low frequency motion is calculated by a simplified numerical Green Function procedure, the two are combined in time domain after high and low pass filtered separately.Finally, the application of the result in the disaster reduction of the city is suggested.

In conjunction with a companion paper by the same authors in this volume, this paper discusses the issues arising in the process of forecasting strong motion fields that need to be dealt with further. Firstly, the field must be estimated from the same source model, rather than taking the average motion at a site from more than 30 source models as in the current seismic hazard assessment practice. The second issue concerns the random synthesis, that is, the uncertainty in the envelop of motion time histories from a sub source must be treated in the same way for all ground points rather than vary randomly as in the current practice. The third concerns the uncertainty in the rupture velocity, which must not be changed randomly in the synthesis. Finally, the fourth issue concerns the order of the filters and the integrations of accelerations and velocities of the high and low frequency motions before being combined together. Through a sensitivity analysis, the consequences of the above issues are presented and further study is suggested.

In terms of stochastic orders, the purpose of this paper is to show how the random environment can affect the number of working components of a system with heterogeneous components sharing a common random environment. Applications to a class of semiparametric mixture models, stress-strength model and warm standby system are presented.

The scale change model in survival analysis incorporates unobserved heterogeneity through a frailty that enters the baseline hazard function to change the time scale. In this paper we examine the stochastic properties of the mixtures of scale change model and build dependence between the overall population variable and the frailty variable. We also carry out stochastic comparisons between overall population variables when their respective frailty or baseline variables are ordered in the sense of various stochastic orders. Finally, we demonstrate how the variation of the baseline variable has an effect on the model.

This paper is concerned with the aging and dependence properties in the additive hazard mixing models including some stochastic comparisons. Further, some useful bounds of reliability functions in additive hazard mixing models are obtained.

The real and measurable model is helpful for structure simulation. Photogrammetry technology provides a new method to model a structure by photos. This article explored the feasibility of photo-based 3D modeling for the arc bridge structures by ordinary digital camera. Firstly, the preparation processes before modeling were introduced, that included camera calibration, designation of shooting program, how to take photos and plan measurement. Secondly, photo orientation and modeling process were introduced, too. A measurement test was put forward to get some good points to enhance the accuracy. By comparing the measurement accuracy of modeling results from the four photos and eight photographs, some proposals were presented to improve the accuracy. The 3D model can be integrated with the loading conditions and material properties, to provide the detailed data for analyzing the structure.

The information on Internet is distributing in a large space scope and can be almost updated in real time at a short time period; especially, as “information highway”, Internet is a cheap information source, it costs less workload and time to collect information from Internet, and it can play a helpful role in disaster mitigation. The 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake is taken as a case study in this paper to develop a set of methods to aid the disaster assessment of the great earthquake from internet information. Firstly, the information of the damaged area was collected successively after the shock that were released on Internet website of the authoritative organization with data mining technology. The information was then analyzed, arranged and classified into three types, the information on damage distribution, the statistic data on death and injures, and those on building collapse rate in residential areas assessed by the remote sensing data. This information was further translated into “information based intensity”, and the locations of those residential areas with “information based intensity” were searched out from the fundamental geographic information database, and were stored into database together. The isoseismals were constructed by GIS spatial modeling tools from the experiential intensity attenuation relationships. A Human-computer interactive method was developed to improve the isoseismals successively by the data of information based intensity. The results at several time periods were compared with the ground survey which published a couple of months later, and showed that the isoseismals were improved step by step closely to the survey with the information amount increasing. On the 12th day after the earthquake, the improved isoseismals was already quite similar with the survey. The result can roughly show the actual damage situation, and provide quickly a support to the disaster relief.

This article explored the method of photo-based 3D modeling for the arc bridge structures by ordinary digital camera. Firstly, a series of processes had been studied by using ordinary digital camera that included the camera calibration, data acquisition, data management, and 3D orientation, setting scale and textures, etc., then the 3D model from photos can be built. The model can be measured, edited and close to the real structures. Take an interior masonry arch bridge as an example, build 3D model through the processes above by using camera HP CB350. The 3D model can be integrated with the loading conditions and material properties, to provide the detailed data for analyzing the structure. This paper has accumulated the experience in data acquisition and modeling methods. The methods can be applied to other structural analysis, and other conditions of 3D modeling with fast and economic advantages.

To shorten the time of RS image pre-processing, this paper considered to realize the automation of choosing image process before downloading. RS images are big files, for example, one scene of CBERS-CCD multi-spectrum image can be more than 100 Mb. The searching methods on the satellite data issue webpage are limited, and the searching results still need more time to choose which images are worth studying. This paper took the choosing process of CBERS images as example, and broke through the conventional searching methods in, and then built the retrieval module of choosing CBERS images by considering the demand of disaster mitigation to help the users quick and effective find the aimed data to study. Firstly, ordered a certain time and space range in the CBERS issue Webpage to search image, built a scene-center database from the information of the search results, such as PATH, ROW, longitude, latitude etc., from which the standard scene-center point's matrix was calculated according to the satellite imaging character. Take the standard scene-center point's matrix as normal imaging scene-center points; screen out the scene-center points in a threshold range. Secondly, in order to obtain the better result of change detection, two choosing rules about imaging time were founded and actualized by Matlab. In the end, the chosen points were overlaid with the isoseismals, the spatial analysis method `identity' is applied to get the priority download list of CBERS images.

In this paper, a new stochastic order called multi-variate Laplace transform ratio order is defined and studied. Its properties are investigated and also this paper presents interesting conditions under which vectors of random sum are ordered in multivariate Laplace transform ratio order. Some applications in comparing random sums, multivariate shock models and multivariate frailty models are given as well.

This paper presents a method to integrate remote sensing (RS) data processing, generation of isoseismal lines and human-computer interaction modules into an improved GIS-based disaster reduction system. Using the RS data processing module, a statistical sample gray value and the RS-intensity at each field survey point in the region are calculated from the probabilistic relationship between the RS-variable and earthquake intensity, and stored in the GIS-based system database. Then, isoseismal lines are generated by a trend surface model from RS-intensity. They are further improved via modification of the isoseismal lines based on the empirical attenuation relationship calculated by using the RS-variable in the human-computer interaction module. The field survey shows that the proposed method gives a good generation of isoseismic lines. As a result, the accuracy of the damage and loss evaluation and the efficiency of the emergency decision making capability are improved.

This paper deals with nonnegative random variables having Laplace transforms as their reliability functions. We study a new stochastic order based upon Laplace transform. Some applications in actuarial science, frailty models and reliability are presented as well.

The development of Earthquake Disaster Reduction System (EDRS) depends on the state of arts of computer technology, involving many fields of computer application skills and techniques. In this paper, first a key period after earth quake occurrence is discussed. Then a Web GIS based Information and Decision-making Support System (the System) for Earth quake Disaster Reduction is introduced, including of technical frame works, function composition, structure of software, redevelopment languages, data bases, and remote linking and calling of analysis modules. Mean while tested by a Ms5.1 earth quake in north-east China, the System showed the damage distribution maps, which include the comparison of isoseismals map and the damage of buildings map. Finally, several conclusions are presented.

Catastrophe bond (CAT bond) is one of the most active instruments to transfer catastrophic risk into the capital market around the whole world. And the pricing theories are developed recently. For earthquake disaster, a pricing model, base on engineering seismic risk assessment, is given. The occurring probability of a defined earthquake catastrophe, estimated by seismic risk assessment method, is adopted as an input. Some factors, like yields and proportion of reinvestment, principal protected ratio, issuance fee, circulation, maturity period, claim payments of insurers and reinsurers, are designed. The cash flows of earthquake insurance premium in complete and incomplete markets are described by Geometric Brownian Motion and Jump-Diffusion processes respectively. The annual coupon rate of a CAT bond is calculated under the equilibrium between the incomes of investors and issuers. The feasibility of the model is represented by a production.

A three-dimensional mathematical model was developed to describe the flow field in the electrolysis cell of the molten magnesium salt, where the model of the three-phase flow was coupled with the electric field force. The mathematical model was validated against the experimental data of the cold model in the electrolysis cell of zinc sulfate with 2 mol/L concentration. The flow field of the cold model was measured by particle image velocimetry, a non-intrusive visualization experimental technique. The flow field in the advanced diaphragmless electrolytic cell of the molten magnesium salt was investigated by the simulations with the mathematical model.

The extension of information and decision-making support system for earthquake disaster reduction depends on the state of arts of remote sensing (RS) technology, involving many fields of computer application skills and techniques. In this paper, first the importance of a key period after earthquake occurrence is discussed. Then a WebGIS based information and decision-making support system (the system) for earthquake disaster reduction is introduced. Meanwhile tested by an Ms5.1 earthquake in north-east China, the system showed the damage distribution maps, which include the comparison of isoseismals map and the damage of buildings map. Finally, several conclusions are presented.