As 2023 draws to a close, it is high time to take stock of relations be-tween China and Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries—and look to the future. In recent decades, the rapid progress of economic and trade partnerships has become the ballast and stabilizer of China-LAC rela-tions. According to the latest annual report of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the value of trade between China and LAC coun-tries increased 35 times from 2000 to 2022. In particular, the figure reached a record high of over $480 billion last year.

China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. Stability of agricultural imports directly affects domestic food availability, and hence influences national food security. This study is important to gauge effects of uncertainty resulting from global and domestic economic policy changes on the stability component of food security in China. Though many studies have explored the determinants and consequences of Chinese agricultural trade, research focusing on stability of agricultural imports is lacking. To fill the gap, this study calculates duration length and survival probability of China’s agri-food imports, and estimates effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the stability. Results show that trade duration of the agri-food imports is 12.07 months in China. However, 51.69% of disrupted trade relationships would resume after 2 months and 92.68% of temporarily interrupted trade relationships return to the market after 12 months. Empirical estimations show that global EPU has a larger impact on the stability of agricultural imports than Chinese EPU. Although Chinese EPU has heterogeneous effects on imports of different agri-food products in China, global EPU does not. Stabilized domestic food price and improved domestic agricultural productivity would improve stability of the imports significantly. The study concludes that China’s agricultural imports are less dynamic than previous studies claimed. However, EPU significantly erodes the trade stability. To offset negative effects of EPU on the stability, government should pay more attention on stabilizing domestic food price volatility and increasing food productivity, and therefore improve food security in China.

Animal-source foods (ASF) are an important source of nutrients in many developing countries. However, there is limited information on the demand for ASF and the factors influencing their consumption. This study assessed spatial and temporal patterns of ASF consumption in Tanzania using data from a nationally representative household survey. Price and expenditure elasticities of ASF demand were estimated by applying a censored Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model. Results showed a 30% increase in weekly household expenditure on ASF from USD 3.02 in 2008 to USD 3.94 in 2014. The likelihood of a household purchasing ASF was 4.5 percentage points higher in urban compared to rural areas. With the exception of dried fish, the expenditure elasticity of ASF demand was positive and statistically significant. Expenditure and own-price elasticities were largest for chicken and lowest for dried fish. The responsiveness of ASF demand to own-price changes was higher in rural than urban areas in all cases. The findings imply that public policies that either raise household incomes or lower ASF prices have the potential to increase the consumption of ASF and consequently improve food and nutrition security in Tanzania. [EconLit Citations: C33, D12, Q18].

预期市场和政策环境的不稳定会引发企业投资行为的波动.本文采用斯坦福大学和芝加哥大学联合发布的"经济政策不确定性指数"和2007年第1季度至2019年第3季度沪深A股上市公司非平衡面板财务数据,分析了政策不确定性对农业企业投资行为的影响.研究发现,政策不确定性对企业投资行为存在明显的抑制效应,农业企业受到的影响远高于一般企业;融资约束理论比实物期权理论更加契合农业企业经营现状,对阐释政策不确定性对农业企业投资的抑制效应具有重要作用.因此,本文建议政府在制定针对农业企业投资的产业政策时,应注重政策连贯性与一致性,关注农业企业投资异质性与融资约束机制的差别,确保农业企业实现可持续发展.

Rapid economic growth in China and India has resulted in rapidly rising labour costs in those countries. In this study a Muth-type model is used to assess the potential effects of this development on global supply chains using China's cotton yarn industry as a case study. The model considers i) product differentiation at the yarn level; ii) imperfect competition in the markets for cotton yarn and raw cotton fibre, iii) input substitution between raw cotton fibre, labour, and capital; and iv) offsetting increases in the demand for cotton yarn caused by rising consumer income. Results suggest the effects of rising labour costs on the supply chain are modest, and easily swamped or obscured by the effects of rising income. Increases in industry market power (both oligopoly and oligopsony) have the same effect on the supply chain as increases in labour costs, raising prices to consumers of cotton yarn, and lowering prices to input suppliers, including foreign suppliers of raw cotton fibre. The combined effects of increases in labour costs and income have increased the factor shares for labour and to a lesser extent capital at the expense of raw cotton fibre.

Trade duration analysis provides insights to the stability and length of trade. This study applies survival analysis to examine the trade duration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) seafood exports from 1996 to 2014. ASEAN seafood trade duration has a mean value of 4.42 years, which varies by product and trade partner. Frequently traded seafood products have significantly higher survival rates and longer trade durations. Increasing seafood production supports longer trade duration. Sub-Saharan African countries have the smallest mean and median seafood trade durations with ASEAN countries. Our findings suggest refining policies to increase ASEAN seafood exports. This could be accomplished through supporting sustainable seafood production growth, particularly aquaculture development; encouraging participation in international trade agreements; and implementing efficient cross-border policies to help lengthen trade duration.